Archive for Reds

The last time the Reds won more than 80 games in a season, they actually won 90 games in a season — and a spot in the 2013 National League Wild Card game. They lost that game 6-2 to the Pirates and then lost another 86, 98, 94, and 94 games in each of the four seasons that followed. In 2018, the Reds are projected to lose 90 games, and the incomparable Joey Votto is projected to produce another 4.4 wins for the club for which he’s recorded a line of .313/.428/.541 over his 6,141 big-league plate appearances.

Votto is 34 this year, and while his skills profile suggests he’s got at least a few good seasons left in him, he won’t be around forever. So what’s the plan in Cincinnati to make best use of the years he has left? It’s really not entirely clear.

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Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are set to become the marquee free agent first basemen this offseason, but they may have some company. Dmitri Young has reportedly expressed interest in returning to the major leagues. Suddenly, teams missing out on Albert and the Prince have a viable Option C when the signing period rolls around.

/sarcasm

Clearly Young’s desire to return has no bearing on any market whatsoever, but the story remains interesting. Young told Bill Ladson of MLB.com that he plans on participating in the Venezuelan Winter League, beginning in October. From there, the realistic goal is to receive a spring training invitation on a non-guaranteed, minor league deal. After all, he hasn’t played in the major leagues since 2008, and appeared in just 14 games for the Nationals’ minor-league affiliates the very next season. He also officially retired in March 2010, presumably due to his struggles with diabetes.

He wants to come back, but will anyone give him a chance?

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With opening day literally right around the corner, fans in every major league city are beginning to feel that itch, that unwavering confidence that this year could be the year their team does some damage. Some of these fans have legitimate cases, as a few teams outside of the usual suspects–Cubs, Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, Yanks, Sox, and Angels–could conceivably play their way to a division title or wild card spot. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if the Giants or Cardinals somehow snuck up on teams or if the Athletics find themselves playing meaningful games in August and September. One team being mentioned as a potential sleeper is the Cincinnati Reds, and while I do not consider them to have playoff-bound talent this season, I do agree with Jerry Crasnick in that their young nucleus is impressive.

The familiar faces of the team are gone, with Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr finding new homes after mid-season trades, essentially leaving chief regression candidate (in a good way), Aaron Harang as the most recognizable player. He will be joined in the rotation by the consistently under the radar Bronson Arroyo, the PTBNL of the Dunn deal in Micah Owings, and their two young guns, Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. Many forget that Cueto is younger than Volquez and potentially has more upside. This rotation might not wow the pants off of viewers but they certainly combine to be above average.

Francisco Cordero heads the bullpen and while he is in no way worth the ridiculous terms of his contract, it isn’t like he lacks talent. The guy might not be worth all that money but he isn’t a bum. The rest of the bullpen, with names like David Weathers, Mike Lincoln, and Bill Bray, is not flashy but has the experience and skill to get the job done on most nights. This is essentially the perfect recipe for going unnoticed.

Brandon Phillips, though no longer a spring chicken, is still a very solid second baseman combining pop with good glovework. Joey Votto had a better season last year than many realize. Edwin Encarnacion may not be the next Scott Rolen with the glove but he can definitely rake. And top prospect Jay Bruce projects very nicely. The team even has flexibility in certain areas as Jonny Gomes has shown a propensity for mashing lefties and Jerry Hairston Jr put up gaudy numbers in limited playing time last season. Combine both with Chris Dickerson and you get a pretty solid left-field situation.

The lineup certainly has holes and question marks in the forms of Willy Taveras, Alex Gonzalez’s questionable health, and Ramon Hernandez, but the talent on the roster tends to get overlooked. Combine everything and you have a team with a decent enough rotation, a bullpen that doesn’t stink up a locker room, and a lineup primarily featuring players with broad skillsets as opposed to one undeniable ability. The Reds then are the posterchild for being ignored as they lack much flash. Despite the good things I’ve been writing about so far, I cannot see them doing any real damage with regards to the playoffs. Some talent is there, enough to not stink, but not enough to truly succeed.

Walt Jocketty and the Cincinnati Reds signed Willy Taveras to a two-year deal this weekend. The financial terms of the deal have not yet been disclosed, but the team plans on leading Taveras off and putting his glove in centerfield. Taveras will be replacing Corey Patterson, who, in 392 PA last season was worth -25.5 runs with the bat while supplying league average defense in center. Patterson made $3 mil in salary in spite of his -$5 mil fair market value. Essentially, by playing Patterson for 135 games, the Reds would have had to spend $5 mil more just to get back to zero wins above replacement from his roster spot.

Taveras had a disappointing 2008 season, posting a .301 wOBA while playing -7 run defense in centerfield. He, too, “cost” his team money, though not nearly as much as Patterson. Willy earned $2 mil in actual salary despite being worth -0.8 mil. He did, however, manage to steal 68 bases.

In 2007, Taveras hit .320/.367/.382 for the Rockies with a wOBA of .344. He only played 97 games but still managed to match his 2006 stolen base total of 33 swipes. His offense has never been superb, but Taveras could always stake claim as a menace on the basepaths. And, prior to 2007, his UZR ratings pegged him as a very solid fielder.

Taveras’ defense has taken a turn for the worse recently. After posting +7 and +13 UZR ratings in 2005 and 2006, Taveras was worth -10 runs in 2007 and -7 runs last season. His lack of offensive prowess may not have mattered as much while he stole a ton of bases and manned centerfield ably. In 2008, only the baserunning facet of these skills seemed evident.

For the 2009 season, Taveras projects to be at -12 offensive runs and between -2 and +2 runs with the glove. For the sake of this analysis, let’s call him a -12 run hitter and 0 run fielder, deeming him average at the tough position. Playing around 140 games with 540 PA, Patterson would receive an additional +20 runs for value above replacement level as well as adjusting for his position.

Added to the offense and defense, this makes Taveras +8 runs, or roughly +0.8 wins, next season. This would mark an improvement over the -0.2 wins in 2008 and the +0.6 wins the year before.

At the 2009 fair market value of $5 mil/win, this makes Taveras a $4 mil player. He signed for a two-year deal, which would be valued at anywhere between $7-8 mil based on these projections. We will know more about the contract’s terms this week, in order to compare his actual received salary to the fair market value.

If Willy can find and harness his offensive numbers from 2007 while reverting to the defensive performances seen prior to the same year, these numbers vastly shift. With a .332 wOBA and +5 run defense, and the same number of plate appearances, Willy becomes a +2.4 win player. His fair market value in this case is closer to $12 mil.

By signing Taveras, Jocketty and the Reds are likely paying him somewhere in the vicinity of the +0.8 wins while holding out plenty of hope that his actual value inches closer to the +2.4 win mark. A few aspects of his performance will need to revert to prior instances of success for this to take place, but it still seems more sound than throwing Patterson out there for another season. Well, more sound assuming that they are not paying Taveras an exorbitant fee.

As long as the deal stays much lower than the $12 mil fair market value based on his “extremely optimistic” projection, it isn’t an awful signing.

The deal does, however, depend a lot on the hope that the Taveras from 2008 is not truly Willy. Two-year deals based on a hope are awfully risky, so this will be considered a win for the Reds if and only if his production improves. It might not be considered a loss if the average annual value is even lower than the $4 mil fair market value based on his actual projection if the production fails to improve. Still, for an organization with some nice young pieces in place, a two-year deal based on a hope seems like an odd move.

Last week, I took a look at Reds ace Aaron Harang and his poor 2008 season, in order to see exactly what went wrong. His strikeout rate dropped, walk rate rose, and home run rate skyrocketed to a level rarely seen, putting his controllable skill measures right in line with his ERA. Even when we adjusted for the very high home run rate, his FIP was still much higher than the marks posted from 2005-07. Suffice it to say, it appeared that Aaron Harang legitimately had a bad season and was not immensely better than his 6-17 W-L record along the same lines that Matt Cain is usually much better than his records.

After reading some of the comments here and at other sites that graciously linked to the article, I have changed my view somewhat, and would like to shed light on the theme most prevalent in the discussions: the before and after of Harang’s controversial relief appearance. See, on May 25, in an extra-innings affair against the Padres, Dusty Baker called on Harang to pitch in innings 13-16. In that span, Harang surrendered two hits, walked just one hitter, and fanned nine of them, an extremely effective performance.

Entering that game, Harang had made 11 starts, and had an average Game Score of 56, an ERA of 3.50, and a K/BB ratio of 3.50, with 18 walks and 63 punchouts. He seemed to be having a typical Harang year. His eleventh start took place on May 22, meaning he pitched out of the bullpen on May 25 on very short rest. Whether that outing resulted in a mechanical flaw developing or an injury occurring, his next ten starts were awful.

In the ten subsequent starts, Harang allowed 52 earned runs in 51.2 innings, for a 9.06 ERA. His OPS against rose to 1.087 while his average Game Score plummeted to 33. Always known for solid strikeout and walk rates, Harang’s K/BB dropped to around 2.3, much lower than the 3.5+ he has grown accustomed to. The relief outing definitely seemed to have some sort of an effect on the righty, one that hurt his overall seasonal numbers.

The outlook might not be bleak, however, as Harang closed the season out quite strongly. Over his final eight starts, he posted a 2.83 ERA, a K/BB above 3.0, an average Game Score of 57, and a much lower OPS against of .733. Perhaps the injury or mechanical flaw dissipated as the final two months of the season rolled around, but Harang definitely performed much better than he did over the summer. In the previous post, I suggested that the Harang of 2005-07 was likely gone, but I have to amend that a bit right now.

I believe that Harang is experiencing normal dropoffs in his strikeout and walk rates, but that his home run rate will regress. He is not nearly as bad as he looked over the summer, just like he isn’t a true talent 2.83 ERA pitcher. His true talent level and projection for 2009 will not be as nice as the level entering this season, but he can still be a very effective pitcher, especially if the bugs hurting him over the summer have been exterminated.

My second top highlight of the 2008 season was one that I am unsure if many even got to see. Whether or not Sportscenter aired the clip or not escapes my memory, but it involved the Phillies playing the Reds, and the reaction of the notoriously tough Philadelphia fanbase and their reaction to Junior Griffey. Ken Griffey, Jr, is now essentially a replacement player, with poor defense and about average offense, but in the beginning of June, he stood right outside the entrance to the 600 HR club, and had trouble earning his membership.

In the first two games of a three game set with the Phillies, the Reds opted to sit Griffey, though he did make pinch-hit appearances, much to the pleasure of the Citizens Bank Park faithful. In fact, the fans actually booed Phillies reliever Tom Gordon when his lack of control prevented Griffey from having a concrete shot at his milestone home run. This was not my highlight, however, as that came the very next game.

Cole Hamels was on the mound for the Phillies and Griffey got the start for the Reds. Cole had long been a fan of Griffey’s and had said before the game began that he honestly would not have minded being the pitcher to give up #600, joining a large list of other pitchers who had previously fallen victim to the sweetest swing in the majors.

In his first at-bat, Griffey hit a double off the wall to the delight of the Phillies fans, a shot that came very close to leaving the yard. His next two at-bats, both prefaced with very loud applause, resulted in somewhat weak groundouts. With Hamels cruising through the game, keeping the Reds firmly off the scoreboard, Griffey would have just one more at-bat. Trailing 5-0, Griffey led off the top of the ninth inning. As he stepped to the plate, a resounding applause spread across the stands. It became quite clear that they were pulling for him to hit his 600th home run.

As Cole took a few steps towards the plate to get a new baseball, you could see him mutter something to Griffey, to which Junior smiled. Hamels would later admit that he asked Griffey what pitch he wanted to say and where he wanted it to be placed. Hamels soon delivered a fastball on the inside corner that Griffey seemed to get all of, launching it towards the centerfield fence. Shane Victorino played it brilliantly, racing back. Literally standing at the wall, Victorino pulled the ball in, inching Hamels closer to a shutout and keeping Griffey milestone-less for at least one more game.

Griffey smiled as Shane made the catch, though his expression bore resemblance to one of slight disappointment. As he made his way back towards the dugout, just about every fan in attendance rose to his or her feet and gave Griffey an absolutely thunderous ovation. Griffey seemed to be in shock. He had experienced applause in his previous plate appearances, but nothing like this. With each step towards the dugout the ovation grew, and he tipped his cap to the fans. Afterwards, in the locker room, he was choked up while giving an interview, recounting the experience, thanking everyone for the support, and struggling to put a word on how it felt. He eventually settled with a simple “It was…. it was awesome.”

He hit #600 soonafter, but, for me, watching notoriously tough fans show him more love than some of their own players was one of the most exciting things I have ever seen in a baseball game.

Back at the beginning of the season, fans in Cincinnati did not really know what to expect after trading away best-story winner Josh Hamilton for a slender righthanded pitcher named Edinson Volquez. After a month, many were convinced that the trade was a win-win, because Hamilton’s bat caught fire and Volquez emerged as the early Cy Young Award favorite in the National League. Few had truly heard of Volquez or knew anything about his repertoire, velocity, or potential, but he dominated hitters left and right, posting some insane numbers in the process. In fact, if Cliff Lee had not had an Orel Hershiser-esque stretch, Volquez would have looked even better early on.

In his first 13 games, 12 of which were starts, Volquez amassed 75 innings, giving up just 49 hits, only 3 of which were longballs. Walks were a bit of an issue as he surrendered 38 free passes, but he showed the ability to miss bats with 91 strikeouts, a 10.92 K/9. His ERA was a measly 1.32, his average game score was 68, and hitters were posting a .188/.303/.261 slash line against.

Over his last 20 starts, his numbers have regressed, and his position atop the out-of-nowhere-story throne was lost, but his overall season is still quite good. In this 20-start span, Volquez posted the following: 121 IP, 118 H, 11 HR, 55 BB, 115 K, 4.39 ERA, 51 GSC, .257/.345/.403. Okay, so he became human again and looked a bit closer to what we would expect from an average pitcher instead of the dominant force through the beginning of June. But hey, Hamilton regressed too, so it is still a win-win.

Combined, Volquez is at 196 innings pitched, just 167 hits surrendered, 93 walks, and 206 strikeouts. His 9.46 K/9 is very attractive but the 4.27 BB/9 chips away a bit. A 2.22 K/BB is not terrible but his one glaring flaw this season lies in the walks issued. His 3.21 ERA is not deemed out of line based on his 3.59 FIP, and while his 1.33 WHIP is closer to average than dominant, his 75.5% strand rate has ensured a good portion of those runners remained put. He should get one more start to finish up the season, making it very likely for him to surpass the 200 IP mark with solid numbers to backup that amount of usage. He might not win any postseason awards and he may have regressed since the beginning of June, but Edinson Volquez still put together one heck of a season

Back at the beginning of the season we didn’t know a whole lot about the Cincinnati Reds. Dusty Baker had taken over as team skipper and opted to go with Corey Patterson in centerfield over top prospect Jay Bruce. Adam Dunn had shown consistency in being a three true outcomes player, Ken Griffey Jr. had some home run milestone on the horizon, and Aaron Harang had shown himself capable of carrying a pitching staff, but to those outside of Cincinnati the team likely looked no different than Reds teams of the past; teams with some nice pieces that wouldn’t win.

After the first couple weeks of the season, however, it appeared they had found themselves a great young pitcher in rookie Johnny Cueto. The media went nuts over this guy and analysts did their thing with regard to his repertoire and what made him effective. Heck, why wouldn’t they? Through his first two starts he had gone 13.1 innings, surrendering just six hits and three earned runs, while walking nobody and fanning eighteen.

From there he turned inconsistent, mixing some quality starts with a few resulting in five or more earned runs, and lost his spot as the emerging Reds rookie pitcher to Edinson Volquez. In fact, Volquez’s performance thus far has made many forget about Cueto; not necessarily forgetting he exists but rather that he was highly touted as recently as two months ago.

For the season, Cueto has a 4.90 ERA, 4.78 FIP and a 1.36 WHIP. He fans a good deal of hitters, 8.27 K/9, but walks 3.37 per nine innings. Additionally, his 1.61 HR/9 ranks as the 4th worst in the senior circuit and he has been a bit below average in stranding runners. The HR/9 may be a function of his ballpark, however, as teammates Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang literally rank right behind him in that category. Since this is his first season we don’t have much reliable data to gauge his true talent level, so I’ll resort to this season’s numbers for the time being.

He seems to throw three different pitches—a heater, slider, and changeup—with the occasional curveball mixed in. His fastball, however, clocks in at around 93.4 mph according to the BIS data here and even looks a bit faster in the Pitch F/X data. Actually, that 93.4 mph ranks third in the NL in heater velocity, a slight tenth of a mile per hour ahead of teammate Edinson Volquez. It appears Cueto has some good “stuff” and that the lack of luck he received early on has tended to even out, but I’m curious to hear your thoughts on him. How many of you lauded his first two starts and then largely forgot about him? And what do you see moving forward from those who watch him more often?

Adam Dunn of the Reds is not too complicated of a player to figure out: he walks a lot, strikes out a lot, and hits home runs. In his eighth big league season Dunn has a career walk rate of 17%, a career strikeout rate of 32.7%, and hits a home run about once every 14 at bats. In fact, from 2004 until yesterday, Dunn’s 189 home runs ranks first in the National League and third overall to Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz. His 504 walks ranks first regardless of league as do his 816 strikeouts; in fact, second place in punchouts is Jason Bay with 639, about 180 behind. For anyone confused, Ryan Howard ranks third in this category primarily because he wasn’t a full-time regular in 2004-05.

This year has been essentially the same for Dunn as he finds himself atop the leaderboard in walks and in the top five in both strikeouts and home runs. Still, one major difference is his current .227 batting average. Though I am strongly against using batting average as any type of end-all evaluative barometer, his low percentage of hits in at bats has prevented his already high OBP and SLG from vastly increasing.

His BABIP, which over the course of his career comes out to .291, currently rests at just .248. The only other season in which he posted a sub-.250 BABIP was in 2003, when he still walked, struck out, and homered quite a bit but managed to produce a .215/.354/.465 slash line. While that season resulted in an .819 OPS his OBP and SLG have combined to provide a .902 OPS as of right now.

This got me thinking how many people have posted sub-.230 batting averages while simultaneously producing OPS counts of .900 or higher. Querying for all players satisfying these parameters while amassing 400 or more plate appearances, I found… nobody. I couldn’t find any player that has ever hit .230 or lower with an OPS .900 or higher. Though it isn’t likely Dunn will finish the season with a batting average that low, especially when considering his BABIP has been much higher in the near past, if he does he will end up literally in a league of his own.

Since .900 is a high OPS for years past I modified the search to give me anyone with a sub-.230 batting average and OPS+ of 130 or higher—based on Dunn’s current number—while totaling at least 400 plate appearances. This produced three results, yet all belonged to the same player: Gene Tenace. In 1974, Tenace had a .211 BA/130 OPS+; in 1978, a .224 BA/134 OPS+; and in 1980, a .222 BA/137 OPS+.

Again modifying the search to include those with sub-.230 BAs and an OBP of at least .380, four results and three names surfaced; Tenace in both 1978 and 1980, Wes Westrum’s 1951 season of .219 BA/.400 OBP, and Ray Cullenbine’s 1947 season of .224 BA/.401 OBP.

Just Tenace’s 1978 season and Cullenbine’s 1947 season achieved this “feat” with at least 500 PAs, and only Cullenbine did so with 600+ PAs. Essentially, assuming Dunn doesn’t get hurt, it is very unlikely this BA/OBP or BA/OPS+ combo will continue. Based on his past BABIP results compared to this year it is more likely the BA will increase, in turn meaning his OBP and SLG will look even gaudier. I’m not sure if teams are in serious, serious discussions regarding his services or not, but they should be… even if he isn’t really passionate about the game.

In Sunday’s 18-inning marathon between the Reds and Padres, pitchers Aaron Harang and Edinson Volquez made uncharacteristic appearances out of the bullpen. After ruffling through eight different pitchers in twelve innings, the Reds found themselves out of traditional relief resources. Harang came in for the 13th-16th innings while Volquez pitched the 17th before surrendering a walkoff home run with two outs in the 18th. Though odd that they pitched out of the bullpen, period, the actual ingredients comprising these appearances are even more interesting.

Harang had pitched just three days earlier, against the same Padres, experiencing his worst start of the season. In it he went just 5.1 innings, giving up 10 hits and 5 runs; he also walked two and struck out seven. This start had been one of just two stains on an otherwise very solid albeit unlucky season for the Reds ace. In his career, Harang had never pitched on just two days rest. Based on his performance against the Padres, perhaps he should more often!

Okay, I’m kidding, and would never base a statement like that off of just one game but Harang might have pitched his best on Sunday. In four innings of relief work he gave up just two hits and struck out nine batters. His nine strikeouts happened to be his season high. Harang was clearly aided by imposing shadows, causing some feeble and futile swings from Padres hitters; for a guy as unlucky as he throughout this season this goes down as positive karma in my book.

Volquez, on the other hand, had pitched two days prior, striking out 12 Padres hitters in six innings of two-hit, one-run work. Volquez has been so good this season that his ERA actually went up after that outing. On Sunday, though, Volquez went 1.2 innings, walking one and striking out two. He also gave up one hit which proved to be the game-winner. With two on and two out in the bottom of the 18th, he gave up a walkoff three-run home run to Adrian Gonzalez.

Despite garnering the loss, the three runs were all unearned because, a few plays earlier, Joey Votto botched a routine play to first base. Volquez pitched six tremendous innings on Friday, giving up one run, and yet he raised his ERA; on Sunday he gave up a three-run home run and his ERA went down.

Based on the WPA results, Volquez’s -.216 deemed this his worst appearance of the season while Harang’s +.568 was far and away his best.