Archive for Ricky Romero

There exists the idea of a kind of proof-of-concept game, that I’m rather fond of. In any individual baseball game, a player’s performance is essentially unpredictable. The range of possible outcomes spans every possible outcome, as looking at one game is no way to evaluate a player’s true talent. But it stands to reason that a guy can fluctuate around his true talent by a magnitude of only so much. Kerry Wood established in one game that he was capable of 20 strikeouts, and, say, Kirk Rueter could never have done that. Juan Pierre has had games where he’s finished with zero hits and five hits, but he’s never had a game where he finished with multiple homers or four or five strikeouts. Extreme performances are notable, because they demonstrate that a given player is capable of such an extreme performance. It’s within the error bars around his true talent.

Tuesday night, against the Tigers, Ricky Romero put together such a proof-of-concept game. Those who followed along know I don’t mean that in a good way. Tuesday night, against the Tigers, Ricky Romero faced 29 batters, and he walked eight of them while striking out zero of them. Romero and the Blue Jays, unsurprisingly, lost.

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It takes a little luck to be a real-life All-Star, or to win yourself some individual hardware. Both Cy Young winners outperformed their FIPs by a nice clip last season. Felix Hernandez (2.27 ERA, 3.04 FIP) and Roy Halladay (2.44 ERA, 3.01 FIP) also did this despite owning career ERAs and FIPs that were much closer together. Fantasy baseball sleeper lists are rife with those that underperformed their FIPs – Francisco Liriano (3.62 ERA, 2.66 FIP) and Yovani Gallardo (3.84 ERA, 3.02 FIP) might feature prominently.

But what about the players that suffered through a season of incredibly neutral luck? Should we not celebrate them somehow? They somehow managed to flip a coin a hundred times and get fifty tails. That seems worth… something.

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Do you want to talk a little bit about dominance?

Here is a line for you: 8 IP | 1 H | 12 K | 10 GB | 2 BB | 2 FB

Jays sophomore pitcher Ricky Romero threw the game of his life on Tuesday night against the Chicago White Sox. The southpaw did not allow a ball out of the infield until the seventh inning; the second – and only other fly ball of the night – came on Alex Rios‘ two-run homer that ended Romero’s no-hit bid in the eighth.

Known as a ground-ball pitcher, Romero worked down in the zone and away from the White Sox hitters, many of whom are known for being pull happy. It was a smart approach and with all his pitches working last night, Romero was able to execute with repeated precision. Both his command and control were impeccable with all four of his pitches: four-seam fastball, cutter, change-up, and curve. He has good fastball velocity for a lefty, and he sat between 89-93 mph with the heater for most of the night, but it was Romero’s ability to keep the hitters guessing that led to his success on the mound.

Of his 12 strikeouts, eight came on the change-up, two on the fastball, and two on the curve. Romero’s ground-ball outs came with the fastball (six) and the change-up (four). Clearly, the hitters could not pick up the difference between the fastball and the change-up. His delivery was smooth and effortless.

Romero primarily used his curveball to get ahead in the count early on, often with the first pitch. Although it wasn’t a strikeout pitch for him in most at-bats, the ability to command it helped him set up his knock-out pitches. When a pitcher can command three pitches and get consistent outs with two, he’s going to have a lot of success, as we saw with Romero.

As good as the former No. 1 draft pick was, I want to take a minute to also mention catcher John Buck. The former Royals backstop may be the best free agent signing that the Jays have made in the past few years. He’s off to a pretty good start with the bat, but his true value to the team lies in his work behind the dish. In his first week with the Jays, Buck has clearly earned the trust of the Jays starters.

Rarely have I seen a shake of the head to suggest a disagreement in the pitch selection. The veteran catcher is known for having a game plan detailed before each contest. He appears to be an excellent receiver and he’s created close plays on throws to second base where it appeared the runner would be safe by a country mile.

Although it’s very early, the Jays club is second in the American League in xFIP at 4.01 (fourth in ERA at 3.19). The club is also third in walk rate at 3.05 BB/9. These numbers are significant given that the club has a patch-work starting rotation made up of young hurlers, converted relievers, and veterans returning from significant injuries. Buck, no doubt, deserves a lot of credit for that, as does new pitching coach Bruce Walton.

After eight successful games by the Jays, we should not shift our expectations. It’s still going to be a long season and the club could very well end up with a losing record. However, it’s clearly not going to be all doom-and-gloom as some had suggested prior to the season.

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Ricky Romero, LHP
A former top draft pick, Romero finally realized his potential in ’09 after making mechanical adjustments during spring training. The southpaw, who just recently turned 25 years old, gave up a lot of hits (192 in 178.0 innings), but he posted a strikeout rate of 7.13 K/9 and did a nice job of inducing ground balls with a rate of 54%. Romero was not as sharp in the second half of the year, but he also battled some nagging injuries.

The Riser: Tim Collins, LHP
Collins was signed as a non-drafted free agent out of high school because he stands just 5’6” or so. The left-hander can still get his heater into the low 90s, though, and he couples that with a nice curveball. In high-A ball in ’09, the 20-year-old hurler allowed 47 hits in 64.2 innings of work. He struggles a bit with his control (3.90 BB/9), but he posted a strikeout rate of 13.78 K/9 and his rate has never dipped below 10.50 in three seasons. Because of his diminutive size, Collins is likely limited to the bullpen. At worst he should be a Major League loogy, as he posted a 0.95 WHIP against left-handed hitters in ’09.

The Tumbler: Kevin Ahrens, 3B
The Jays’ top pick out of high school in ’07, Ahrens has struggled with his bat throughout his pro career. In ’09, he hit just .215/.282/.302 in 377 at-bats in high-A ball. His .088 ISO will definitely not cut it at third base. His batting line was hindered by his .259 BABIP. Ahrens, a switch-hitter, batted just .212/.287/.283 against right-handers. On the plus side, the prospect is just 20 years old, so time is on his side. Ahrens will most definitely repeat high-A ball in 2010.

The ’10 Sleeper: Carlos Pina, LHP
Pina, a left-handed pitcher, generates a lot of ground balls (69.0%) and he can hit the low-90s with his fastball. The 19-year-old hurler made his North American debut in ’09 and allowed just 46 hits in 51.2 innings of work. He showed good control too, with a walk rate of 2.79 BB/9. The ground-ball pitcher posted a strikeout rate of 6.10 K/9, and that should rise as he improves his command of his entire repertoire, which includes a slider and change-up. Pina’s 1.57 ERA was misleading, as his FIP was 3.39.

Bonus: Brad Emaus, 2B
Highlighted as a sleeper entering ’09, Emaus slipped a bit despite hitting very well in last fall’s Hawaii Winter Baseball league. The second baseman struggled in double-A and posted a line of .253/.336/.376 with an ISO of .123 in 505 at-bats. The 23-year-old infielder did have a reasonable walk rate at 10.5% and his strikeout rate was nice at 13.7%. His overall numbers were definitely affected by a batting average of just .122 in June. Emaus should improve upon his .277 BABIP in 2010, although he could open the season back in double-A.

The Favorites:
1. Brett Anderson, LHP, Oakland
Anderson holds the narrow edge over Romero is K/9 with 7.25, good for 18th in the league for pitchers with more than 90 innings pitched. Anderson has the 12th lowest FIP in the AL at 3.91, six spots ahead of Bergesen. The southpaw also has the second lowest line-drive rate in the AL, four spots head of Porcello.

2. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas
Andrus and Brett Gardner are tied for 12th in the league in steals with 20. Among AL shortstops, Andrus leads in UZR and range factor.

3. Brad Bergesen, RHP, Baltimore
Bergesen is 12th in the league in BB/9 (90 IP+), five spots ahead of Anderson. He’s also 12th in the league in HR/9 at 0.80, five spots ahead of Niemann.

4. Gordon Beckham, 3B, Chicago
Beckham leads rookies in batting average (200 PA minimum) but is just 35th in the league. He also has the highest BABIP for rookies at .331, 26th in the league. Defensively, UZR doesn’t like Beckham, but he has shown good range.

5. Andrew Bailey, RHP, Oakland
Bailey is seventh in the AL in saves with 17 (40 IP+). He’s also eighth amongst all AL relievers in K/9 with a rate of 10.13. The right-hander is helped by a low .249 BABIP.

Watch Out For:
Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore
He had a slow start to his MLB career, but this promising catcher is really playing well now… It remains to be seen, though, if he can catch up to all of the rookies above.

Nolan Reimold, LF, Baltimore
Reimold is tops in BB% at 11.5%, but that is good for just 34th in the league. No rookie is amongst the top 35 hitters in OPS, ISO or wOBA. Defensively, he’s one of the worst left fielders in the AL.

Ricky Romero, LHP, Toronto
Romero is often the second or third best rookie pitcher in any one of the categories, including K/9 and GB%.

Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit
Porcello has the highest ground-ball rate in the American League at 56%, two spots ahead of Romero, five spots ahead of Bergesen and seven spots ahead of Anderson.

Jeff Niemann, RHP, Tampa Bay
Niemann has the 14th lowest batting-average-allowed in the league, four spots ahead of Romero.

This week we’re taking a look at some of the top rookies in Major League Baseball in an attempt to ascertain who is the most deserving candidate for Rookie of the Year in both the American and National Leagues. Today, we’ll take a look at five starting pitchers (minimum 100 IP) in the American League who have a solid chance at the Rookie of the Year award. Yesterday, we looked at the top rookie hitters in the AL.

Brett Anderson, LHP, Oakland Athletics

For whatever reason, teammate Trevor Cahill seems to get more ink than Anderson, although the latter player is definitely having the more consistent season. A 2006 second round draft pick out of an Oklahoma high school (by Arizona), Anderson spent just two seasons in the minors before making the club out of spring training in 2009. The southpaw has allowed 126 hits in 121.2 innings of work and he’s leading AL rookie pitchers in strikeouts with 98 (7.25 K/9) while maintaining a solid walk rate at 2.59 BB/9. Anderson appears to be maintaining the velocity on his fastball better at the MLB level, than he did in the minors. He’s got a respectable ground-ball rate at 49.1% and he’s limiting the line drives with a rate of 14.3%. Also on the positive side, Anderson’s numbers have improved across the board in July and August so he’s learning and making adjustments.

Brad Bergesen, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

Perhaps the least-heard-about-name on this list, Bergesen just keeps plugging away despite having almost zero hype entering the season. The former fourth round draft pick was taken out of a California high school in 2004 and he honed his skills in the minors for five seasons. Bergesen has almost freaky-good control, having posted a walk rate below 2.00 BB/9 in all but one minor league season prior to 2009 (his first, when he appeared in just five games). The right-hander is a sinker/slider pitcher whose fastball averages around the upper-80s, so he needs that control (and command) to succeed. As he gets around the league a little more, Bergesen may have to break out the changeup (7.9% usage) a little more. His ground-ball rate of 50.1% definitely helps him survive in the AL East. Overall, he’s allowed 126 hits in 123.1 innings of work, while also posting a walk rate of 2.34 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 4.74 K/9.

Jeff Niemann, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

The 6’9” right-hander took longer to reach the Majors than many thought he would after being taken fourth overall out of Rice University in the 2004 draft. It’s been worth the wait for the 26-year-old pitcher. After a couple of up-and-down months to start the year, Niemann has settled in to become one of the Rays’ most reliable starters. Overall, he has allowed 116 hits in 120.2 innings of work. He has a 2.98 BB/9 rate and a strikeout rate of 5.74 K/9. Niemann, though, has been helped by a low BABIP allowed of .283. He’s also a flyball pitcher who has kept the ball in the park (0.90 HR/9). Niemann doesn’t throw as hard as he did in college – now averaging around 92 mph – but he mixes in four pitches. He handles right-handed and left-handed batters well, with identical batting-averages-allowed at .255.

Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit Tigers

Not surprisingly, the 20-year-old rookie has wilted a bit under the hot summer sun (8.79 ERA, 21 hits in 14 innings in July). With only one minor league season under his belt, Porcello has performed admirably given his lack of experience. In 20 starts, he’s allowed 118 hits in 111 innings of work, while also posting a solid walk rate of 3.08 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 4.54 K/9. Home runs have been an issue for Porcello (1.38 HR/9) even though he has a ground-ball rate of 56.1%. He’s been aided by a low BABIP allowed of .282. Porcello relies heavily on his sinking fastball that averages out around 91 mph, but he also mixes in a curveball and changeup. The right-hander has a very bright future but he’s fallen back a bit in the Rookie of the Year race.

Ricky Romero, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Romero is a perfect example of how patience is often needed when dealing with young players – and pitchers in particular. After being taken with the sixth overall pick of the 2005 draft out of Cal State Fullerton, the southpaw struggled with his command and confidence in the minors. He was constantly compared to Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who was selected one pick after Romero and reached in the Majors in his first full season. Romero finally earned the call to the Majors in his fifth pro season, but he’s still young at the age of 24. The southpaw made some adjustments to his delivery with Toronto’s pitching coach Brad Arnsberg and his command and control have both significantly improved. Overall, Romero has allowed 114 hits in 115.2 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 3.42 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.00 K/9. He’s allowed his fair share of line drives at 20.3%, but he’s done a nice job of offsetting that with ground balls at 52%. Romero has a nice fastball for a lefty and it averages out around 91.6 mph. He also utilizes a curveball, slider, and changeup.

Honorable Mention: Andrew Bailey, RHP, Oakland Athletics

It’s hard for relievers to get taken seriously for the Rookie of the Year award, but Bailey is definitely making a name for himself. The right-hander has racked up 16 saves in 20 attempts for the Athletics. He also has a stunning strikeout rate of 10.29 K/9. His walk rate is 3.14 BB/9. Bailey, 25, has limited batters to 40 hits in 63 innings of work. His success is even more impressive considering that he spent the majority of his minor league career working out of the starting rotation.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at some rookie hitters in the National League.

The Detroit Tigers took Rick Porcello at #27 in the first round during the 2007 amateur draft out of Seton Hall Prep in West Orange, New Jersey. The Toronto Blue Jays selected Ricky Romero at #6 in the first round during the 2005 amateur draft out of Cal St. Fullerton. This past Thursday, April 9th, both made their major league debuts despite somewhat drastically different routes to the big leagues.

More interesting is that they made their debuts against one another, which according to the MLB Network happens to be a baseball first, in that this matchup marked the very first time two rookies previously drafted in the first round made their debuts while squaring off in the same game.

Porcello surprisingly earned a spot in the Tigers rotation out of spring training after never pitching above A-ball. On top of that, a strict development program instituted last season specifically called for Porcello to work on his secondary offerings at the expense of some performance based indicators. Though he failed to fan more than six batters per nine innings in a low level of minor league baseball, many scouts remarked that Porcello was merely toying with the hitters, capable of dominating at any point if the Tigers shortened the leash on his throwing program.

In his debut, Porcello lasted five innings, walked one, fanned four, and induced grounders on 64% of his balls in play. Essentially, though his actual pitching line will not earn him the Game Score of the year, Porcello performed as advertised, recording strikeouts, showing solid poise and control, and keeping the ball on the ground.

Romero has a bit more seasoning, having attended Cal St. Fullerton from 2001-05 before spending the next three seasons in the minor leagues. The last year and a half of his minor league career is particularly intriguing in the sense that Romero performed better against tougher comptition. In 2007, after 4.1 innings in High A-ball, Romero posted a 8.2 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9 in Double-A. His first 121.2 innings in 2008 came in Double-A, where the aforementioned rates regressed to 5.8 and 4.1, respectively. 41.2 innings of Triple-A competition later and Romero was striking out 8.0 batters per nine while walking just 4.2 over the same span.

Though his pitching line appears much better than Porcello’s, specifically the 6 IP-2 ER part, both had very similar outings. Romero walked two, fanned five, and induced grounders on 59% of his balls in play. Both even throw their fastballs at very similar velocities. The major difference in their debuts can be found in pitch distribution, as Porcello, perhaps happy to once again have free range with the fastball, threw the pitch 74% of the time. Romero, as is the case with seemingly all Blue Jays starting pitchers, threw under 50% fastballs and incorporated more of his offspeed pitches.

Romero is not likely to have as much wiggle room as Porcello given his age and that the Blue Jays passed on Troy Tulowitzki and Matt Garza to acquire his services. Unfortunately, I fear that even if he becomes capable of holding down #3-starter status in the big leagues–which is no easy feat–Romero may be viewed as a disappointment. Both of these pitchers will forever be linked by the historical nature of their debuts and our eyes should be kept on each as the season progresses.

A number of prospects have risen swiftly though the system for the Jays in the past year. The club has also re-committed itself to finding prospects in Latin American, as well as Australia. The system is better than some think it is, but there is still a lot of work to be done. There are some interesting sleeper prospects in the low minors.

AAA/AA
The club has three southpaw starters that could see significant time in Toronto in 2009: Ricky Romero, Brad Mills, and Brett Cecil. All three received long looks this spring with Romero and Mills still under consideration for starting rotation spots. Romero, a former sixth overall draft pick out of college, has had a relatively disappointing career to this point, although he is making strides with his fastball command. He split 2008 between Double-A and Triple-A. Mills was selected in the 2007 draft as a college senior and he pitched at three levels last year and posted ERAs of 2.55, 1.35, and 1.10. Overall, he made 27 starts and succeeds by being aggressive and attacking the strike zone with average stuff. Cecil has an above-average repertoire for a southpaw and was a good college closer before being converted to a starter by the Jays. He needs to work on his fastball command but he could be ready by the middle of 2009. Cecil was slowed in 2008 by injuries but he still pitched at three levels and topped out in Triple-A.

Travis Snider should be considered an early favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award, especially with fellow rookies Matt Wieters (Baltimore) and David Price (Tampa Bay) beginning the year in the minors (What a good year for rookies in the AL East). Snider, 21, will be the everyday left fielder for Toronto. He was slowed at the beginning of 2008 by a bum elbow but he still managed to play at three minor league levels before making a 24-game appearance in the Majors where he hit .301/.338/.466 with two homers in 73 at-bats. Snider likely won’t hit for a high average early in his career thanks to high strikeout totals (32 K% in 362 Double-A at-bats), but he should provide plenty of power and he is a better outfielder than many think.

J.P. Arencibia is another powerful bat for the Jays. The catcher was selected in the first round of the 2007 draft out of college and split last season between High-A and Double-A. He hit .315/.344/.560 in 248 at-bats before a promotion to Double-A, where he posted a line of .282/.302/.496 in 262 at-bats. Arencibia tied Wieters for home runs with 27 but drove in more runs with 105. The downside to his offensive game is that he walked just 18 times last year, including a walk rate of just 2.6 BB% in Double-A. Arencibia will have to improve upon his patience if he is going to be an impact player in the Majors. He has made significant strides in improving his defense.

Scott Campbell began his pro career as a second baseman but is penciled in at third base for the Triple-A club in 2009, which will help add to his versatility. The left-handed hitter cannot hit southpaws at all and he has limited power so his future is likely as a platoon infielder or bench player. Campbell’s defense at second base was nothing to write home about. Offensively, though, he skipped over High-A ball in 2008 to play at Double-A and had his best offensive season. The 24-year-old infielder hit .302/.398/.427 with nine home runs in 417 at-bats. He posted rates of 13.7 BB% and 15.1 K%.

A+/A
The left-handed Tim Collins is generously listed as 5’7” which is why he went undrafted out of high school. General manager J.P. Ricciardi’s father noticed the pitcher at a high school game and tipped off his son, which allowed the Jays to buy Collins, 19, away from a junior college offer late in 2007. Last season in A-ball, the southpaw used a plus curveball and average fastball to allowed just 36 hits in 68.1 innings of work. He also posted rates of 4.21 BB/9 and 12.91 K/9.

Yet another southpaw, Luis Perez was a late blooming Latin America prospect who did not come over to North America until he was 22. Although he started off very poorly at A-ball in 2008, Perez turned things around. He allowed 136 hits in 137.1 innings and posted rates of 3.34 BB/9 and 8.98 K/9. In 212.2 innings in North America, the Dominican hurler has allowed just four home runs and he induces a ton of ground balls, along with the healthy number of strikeouts.

Second baseman Brad Emaus opened some eyes in his first full season. Originally viewed as a future utility player in the Scott Spiezio mold, Emaus now looks like a future regular, whose offense could possibly be strong enough to warrant a move to third base. In 2008, Emaus hit .302/.380/.463 with 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases. The 23-year-old also played well in the Hawaii Winter Baseball league with a .333 average and 17 walks (with just seven strikeouts) in 81 at-bats.

David Cooper was the club’s 2008 first round draft pick out of college. Cooper, a first baseman, was considered a step below the Top 3 first sackers in the draft: Justin Smoak, Brett Wallace (now a full-time third baseman), and Yonder Alonso. Regardless, Cooper had a stunning debut and played at three levels, topping out in High-A ball. The left-handed hitter hit .300 or more at each level and batted .304/.373/.435 with one home run in 92 High-A at-bats. Cooper has the skill to bat .300 in the Majors but his power is no better than average for the position and he needs a fair bit of work on his defense.

Raw+Toolsy+Prep = Exactly the type of player Toronto historically avoided under general manager J.P. Ricciardi. Justin Jackson, though, represented a departure from that stance, and Toronto is glad it made the change. The athletic and gifted fielder is still raw but he has displayed some promising skills at the plate and on the base paths, as well as in the field. The 20 year old shortstop hit just .238/.340/.368 with seven homers and 17 stolen bases in 454 at-bats, but he was one of the better hitters on his A-ball club in the first half of the season before tiring in his first full pro season.

Eric Eiland is another raw high schooler who was signed in 2007, like Jackson. Eiland though did not join Jackson in A-ball until later in the season after beginning the year in extended spring training. Once he reached A-ball, Eiland hit .233/.334/.305 with 23 stolen bases in 249 at-bats. He needs to work on his approach at the plate after posting a strikeout rate of 32.1 K%. His walk rate was a reasonable 12.9%.

Kevin Ahrens was the club’s first pick of the 2007 draft out of a Texas high school but he has fallen down the depth chart below both Arencibia and Jackson, two players drafted after him. Ahrens, like Jackson, struggled mightily in the second half of his first full pro season. Overall, he hit .259/.329/.367 with five home runs in 460 at-bats. Defensively, he is still getting accustomed to manning third base after playing shortstop in high school.

SS/R
Antonio Jimenez and Carlos Perez highlight a deep crop of catchers in the lower levels of the system. Jimenez was selected out of a Puerto Rico high school during the 2008 draft, while Perez was a quiet Latin America signing in 2007. Jimenez appeared in just 19 games after signing and hit .191/.255/.234. His defense is considered ahead of his bat and he is very athletic for a catcher (He stole five bases in seven attempts). Perez opened some eyes in his first pro season in the Dominican Summer League in 2008 and hit .306/.459/.378 in 196 at-bats. He also walked 52 times with just 28 strikeouts. His defense is not as strong as Jimenez’ but he is good enough to remain behind the dish long term.

The organization significantly improved its middle infield depth with the 2008-09 signings of Gustavo Pierre, Garis Pena and Nick Bidois. Both Pierre and Pena were signed out of Latin America for six-figure contracts, while Bidois was inked out of Australia. All three teenagers will move slowly and Pierre had Tommy John surgery during the off-season.

Up Next: The Atlanta Braves