Archive for Rockies

I first learned about joint dislocation in 2003 after Derek Jeter slid into a nasty collision at third base. When I heard that Jeter had suffered a dislocated shoulder, my five-year-old brain naturally conjured up an image of a disembodied arm lying on the infield dirt. You can imagine my surprise when the Yankees shortstop returned six weeks later, both arms firmly secured in their sockets.

As horrifying as dislocation sounds, and as painful as I’m sure it is, a dislocated shoulder isn’t always a serious injury. Fernando Tatis Jr. dislocated his shoulder several times during the 2021 season and still managed to play 130 games and put up 7.3 WAR en route to a third-place finish for NL MVP. Brandon Inge once dislocated his shoulder mid-game and popped it back in place on the field; the very next inning, he smacked a go-ahead RBI single.

Thus, when Brendan Rodgers landed awkwardly on his shoulder last Tuesday, there was no cause for panic straight away. Manager Bud Black described the incident as “a pretty classic thing,” while Matthew Ritchie of MLB.com wrote that Rodgers might be “a tad delayed.” Unfortunately, the injury appears to be far more significant than your run-of-the-mill dislocation, with reports suggesting Rodgers might need surgery to repair the damage. If he goes under the knife, the Rockies second baseman could miss most, if not all, of the upcoming season. Read the rest of this entry »

Trevor Story is one of the minor league’s best shortstops. Today, elite shortstop prospects are plentiful. As they develop, the next generation of Major League shortstops could be spectacular. Jurickson Profar is a blemishless prospect, the perfect blend of tools and ability. Carlos Correa, last June’s top draftee, is joined by Xander Bogaerts, Javier Baez and Addison Russell to form a cadre of shortstops who could reintroduce offense to the position. Trevor Story rarely appears in the discussion, but he should. Read the rest of this entry »

Ubaldo Jimenez was once a terrific young starting pitcher for the Colorado Rockies. He had tremendous raw talent and pitching acumen to boot. If harnessed, he figured to miss bats, keep the ball on the ground and limit walks while remaining on the effectively wild side. He could dial it up to 96 mph — average fastball velocity of 95.8 mph in 2007 — and threw a top-notch, looping curveball that was tough to pick up with his herky-jerky windup. He was, potentially, the prototypical pitcher capable of succeeding at Coors Field.

After posting WAR totals of 4.3, 5.9 and 6.4 from 2008-10, he took a step back last season. His strikeout, walk and groundball numbers were very similar to the prior three years, but he served up more home runs and was less effective at stranding runners. Last season was a case of strong ERA estimators that belied better performance than his actual earned run average. As such, he seemed like a prime regression candidate this season. Through 28 starts and 161.1 innings this year, however, Jimenez has just 0.4 WAR. After averaging 5.5 WAR from 2008-10, Jimenez isn’t currently on pace to finish with even one win above replacement over a full season.

While last season’s relative struggles — he had been so effective that 3.5 WAR represented a down year — at least gave hope to improved performance, everything has gone wrong this season. Jimenez has regressed, but not in the direction his 2011 peripherals portended. Instead, he is set to finish this season with the worst numbers of his career across the board. He quickly went from one of the best to one of the worst, and it doesn’t seem that the major causes are easily fixable.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Colorado Rockies starting rotation has been awful at preventing runs this season. Their collective 6.31 ERA and 5.15 FIP are easily National League worsts, and their walk and home run rates rank at or near the bottom as well. Pitching in Coors Field plays a big part in their performance — as their much improved 4.32 SIERA and 4.44 xFIP indicate — but overall, starting pitching has been a major weakness for the disappointing 25-41 Rockies.

That doesn’t say very much for Jeremy Guthrie, who has pitched so poorly in a poor rotation that he is being moved to the bullpen. The season has been nightmarish for the usually steady 33-year old starter. His strikeout rate has dropped from around 14% to 10%. His walk rate has risen from 6.5% to 8%. His home run rate has ballooned by an entire home run per nine innings. He has managed just 59 innings over 11 starts, with an ugly 7.02 ERA, 6.72 FIP and 5.09 SIERA.

The season isn’t yet halfway over so this could all just be an extended slump bound to regress. It could also be a combination of general aging and pitching in a tougher park. However, as it currently stands, Guthrie moved to the easier league, and out of baseball’s toughest division, and has declined in literally every area. Believe it or not, this is fairly rare throughout major league history.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Rockies designated Jamie Moyer for assignment this week, likely spelling the end of his short run in Colorado. A year removed from undergoing Tommy John surgery, Moyer showed some positive signs over his 10 starts with the Rockies, but the team was discouraged with the overall results and opted to head in a different direction.

While the designation for assignment doesn’t preclude the team from hanging onto the player, it seems unlikely that the end result here involves the 49-year old Moyer pitching for a Rockies’ minor league affiliate.

Whether he is viewed as more of a novelty than an asset — and at this point in his career it’s hard to view him as a significant contributor — Moyer will probably receive some interest throughout the league. He might not get to start many more games, but some team will take a low-risk flier on him in some capacity if he decides to keep pitching.

While getting cut by a 21-29 team currently 10.5 games out of first place might signal it’s time to hang up the cleats, Moyer may still have something left to offer whichever team brings him aboard.

Read the rest of this entry »

Since starting the season 11-2, the Colorado Rockies are just 13-23. They are a Major League worst 7-17 in May, and haven’t won more than two in a row since the 11-2 start. In 21 of those past 36 games, they have scored three runs or less. Last night’s loss dropped the team below .500 for the first time since they were 0-1. The team has responded with a series of personnel and lineup changes that show more than a hint of panic, even though at this stage, that is still not warranted.

Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Iannetta can’t catch a break.

First, the Rockies’ catcher had to compete for a starting spot in 2009 despite producing a .391 wOBA the year before. Since being named the starter, his supposed failure to record hits over the last couple of seasons has that status being called into question. Iannetta is one of the game’s most patient hitters, but the 28-year-old frequently strikes out, and his lack of success with balls in play has led to some truly wacky slash lines.

The latter two components of his 2009 slash line were solid at .344/.460, but a .228 batting average fueled by an ugly .245 BABIP dropped his overall production. Last season the trend continued, albeit with poorer results on balls in play: Iannetta hit .197/.318/.383, with a .212 BABIP in 223 plate appearances. Through 67 plate appearances this season the situation remains the same. Iannetta is hitting a strange, yet impressive, .163/.388/.388. Remove the batting average, and his numbers are solid for a starting catcher.

Regardless of his high on-base marks, we have to question why Iannetta has struggled in the BABIP department, and then research whether similar-profile players can improve in that area.

Read the rest of this entry »

I know, I know: Hall of Fame discussions can be a bit tiresome these days. Still, something struck me a bit odd during a conversation with my father recently that merited further discussion amongst all the loyal readers and commenters here. Our conversation dealt with Todd Helton of the Colorado Rockies and whether or not his career accomplishments and accolades are “worthy” of inclusion into baseball’s hallowed hall. Essentially, I had contended that it would be very difficult for a Rockie to be inducted. For pitchers, the reasons should be a bit more obvious, but for hitters, they would have to have numbers great enough to transcend the initial, and likely true, belief that they benefited from playing in Coors Field.

Based on win probability statistics, Helton has been one of the, if not the, best first basemen in the National League since his Rookie of the Year-winning 1998 campaign. From 2000-2004 he contributed 26.88 WPA wins, 30.51 context-neutral wins, and averaged 69.78 BRAA per season. Other than his 2002 WPA, which ranked 5th, he finished #1 or #2 amongst NL first basemen in each of these categories, each year.

Since his career began in 1998, and amongst those with at least 1,000 games in that span, Helton’s .332 BA ranks second to only Ichiro Suzuki; his .432 OBP ranks second to none other than Barry Bonds; and his 1.017 OPS ranks fourth to Bonds, Albert Pujols, and Manny Ramirez.

The Hall of Fame tests created by Bill James may be a bit outdated in not accounting for park factors and such but still do a good job of stacking up current numbers against Cooperstown equivalencies and/or averages. Based on these it would seem Helton is a borderline case:

Black Ink: Helton=16, Average=27
Gray Ink: Helton=141, Average=144
HOF Standards: Helton=50, Average=50
HOF Monitor: Helton=154, Average > 100

He vastly exceeds the monitor, which serves to award points based on milestones and numbers accrued, but currently falls short in the ink tests; Black Ink measures how often a player leads the league while Gray looks at those who finish amongst the top performers. What hurts Helton from a statistical standpoint is that he looks to be borderline based on the aforementioned tests yet his career home/road splits confirm the theories of Coors dissenters:

Home: 3617 PA, .363/.461/.653, 1.114 OPS, 190 HR, 341 K
Road: 3488 PA, .294/.394/.494, .888 OPS, 120 HR, 467 K

Now, his road numbers are still quite good, and are well above average, but they definitely pale in comparison to the Ruthian efforts at home. Ultimately, though, I’ll pose the following questions:

a) When all is said and done will Helton be inducted? (Keep in mind “will” does not necessarily mean “deserve”)
b) What would it take for a Rockies hitter to be inducted? Equally impressive home/road splits?

Close to halfway through this regular season, those everyone pegged for success back in the beginning of the calendar year can be found atop most pitching leaderboards: Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders, Shaun Marcum, and Edinson Volquez. A fifth pitcher, however, has been performing at quite the high level as well despite the lack of similar publicity.

His name is Aaron Cook and, for those unfamiliar with his work, he pitches for the Colorado Rockies. Through 15 starts, Cook is 10-3 with a 3.29 ERA, 3.99 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP. In 104 innings of work he has allowed 105 hits and 27 walks to go along with his 50 strikeouts. The ERA, FIP, WHIP, and his 1.85 K/BB are all career highs for Cook; while the season has plenty of life remaining, his current numbers appear to be better than any of his past work.

A notorious groundball pitcher, his percentage of such balls in play has actually decreased overall from 2005 until now. Though essentially stagnant between 2006-2007, he has thrown a lower percentage of grounders and line drives, replacing them with flyballs in this four-year span.

One reason for his success is his somewhat vast increase in runners stranded. Last year, when he posted a 4.12 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, and 1.39 K/BB, he had just a 68.1% LOB rate. This year it has jumped to 75.8%. All told, he is allowing a smaller percentage of runners to reach base and then stranding a much higher percentage of them.

His 2.21 WPA ranks 2nd in the NL behind just Volquez while ranking 5th in the entire MLB behind Lee, Saunders, Marcum, and Volquez. His 1.14 WPA/LI ranks 10th in the NL and, the only clutchier starting pitcher than Cook has been Vicente Padilla (1.13 for Padilla, 1.09 for Cook). Additionally, his 13.13 BRAA and 1.30 REW rank 9th in the NL.

Coming into this season many pegged, and rightly so, Jeff Francis as the Rockies ace. Close to the halfway mark Cook has been one of the best in baseball, let alone his own team, while Francis has struggled.

There has not been too much written about the Rockies across the non-team specific blogosphere. Troy Tulowitzki is injured for a while, the back end of their rotation is a combined -36.58 BRAA, and the only section of the team with a positive WPA is the bullpen. Entering the season everyone envisioned Jeff Francis as the ace of the staff; after all, his post-season was quite impressive. Suffice it to say, Francis has had a rocky start…get it? It’s a pun because he plays for the… nevermind.

Entering tonight’s action Francis is 0-4 with a 6.27 ERA, 5.39 FIP, and 1.63 WHIP. His K/BB has plummeted an entire point, from 2.62 a year ago to 1.63 today. This has all resulted in a -0.50 WPA.

Fortunately, for Rockies fans, Aaron Cook has been performing above and beyond expectations. Through eight starts, Cook is posting the following numbers:

6-1, 2.26 ERA, 55.2 IP, 17 BB, 23 K, 1.13 WHIP

Here are some of his more advanced stats:

3.89 FIP, 1.35 K/BB, 3.72 K/9, 78.2 LOB%, 1.42 WPA, 11.84 BRAA

Based on his home runs and walks allowed, as well as strikeouts, his ERA should be closer to 3.89 than the Maddux-like 2.26 it currently rests at. He has a very low K/9; his 3.72 ranks as the 6th lowest in baseball. His WPA of 1.42 ranks as the seventh best among starting pitchers. Additionally, his 11.84 BRAA comes in at fourth best in the National League.

Cook currently has a BABIP against of .243, which is right on par with his 13.6 LD%. The problem, however, exists in that very low rate of line drives. It simply is uncharacteristic of the Aaron Cook we have come to know and love. His career balls-in-play rates, which do not suffer/benefit from fluctuations, come in at 18.5 LD/61.4 GB/25.0 FB; as of right now it is 13.6 LD/58.3 GB/23.1 FB. It really is not very likely that he will maintain this rate.

Overall, though, Cook has gone 6+ innings in all eight of his starts, allowing a maximum of four earned runs just once; that game was his first of the season.

In his last five games he has an average Game Score of 61 and is holding opponents to a .231/.286/.346 slash line. He may not keep this up all season but Cook has definitely made up for the shortcomings of Francis thus far.