Archive for Roy Halladay

According to a report on Yahoo, the Boston Red Sox organization has offered the Toronto Blue Jays a very competitive package for ace starter Roy Halladay. According to the site, Boston offered young starters Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden, as well as 19-year-old outfielder Ryan Westmoreland.

Frankly, I like that much better than the rumored offer from the Philadelphia Phillies that included young hurler J.A. Happ, starter Carlos Carrasco, infielder Jason Donald, and outfielder Michael Taylor. Frankly, the only player in that deal that does anything for me is Taylor. You have to wonder how the Phillies organization can justify holding back its best prospects for one of the Top 5 pitchers in all of baseball and perhaps the most consistent in the past five years?

If I were the Jays, I would not do a deal with Philly without double-A pitching prospect Kyle Drabek and high-A outfielder Dominic Brown. The Phillies’ deal is almost insulting: a MLB pitcher currently playing over his ceiling, a pitching prospect who has regressed in the past two seasons, a shortstop who is an average hitter at best and may need to move to second base, as well as Taylor.

However, even a deal including Drabek and Brown would not appeal to me as much as Boston’s rumored offer of two MLB-ready, young pitchers and a talented (but inexperienced) young outfielder. If the Sox tossed in MLB infielder Jed Lowrie, outfielder Josh Reddick or right-hander Junichi Tazawa, I would probably scream, “Sold!” The organization refuses to trade SS/RHP prospect Casey Kelly and MLB reliever Daniel Bard, and I can respect that; the other players that Boston is offering are much better than those being suggested by Philly.

Forget about dealing within the division. Toronto needs to get the best deal possible for Halladay, and that could very well come from Boston.

Roy Halladay is good. I mean, really, really good. Without question, Halladay is one of those guys so consistently great that he gets overlooked due to flashes in the pan and pitchers that cobble together unexpectedly great seasons. Even more impressive than his raw figures and rates is the fact that these statistics have been accrued while facing the beasts of the AL East with regularity over the last several seasons.

This past Thursday, Doc turned in the type of performance we have come to expect, but the suddenly anemic Blue Jays could not muster any offense whatsoever. Despite seven scoreless innings from their ace, the Jays fell 1-0 to “rookie” Kenshin Kawakami and the Atlanta Braves:

Halladay’s performance was matched by Kawakami, as the latter scattered a mere three hits over eight frames, issuing nary a free pass while fanning seven. Kawakami started off a tad slow but has looked extremely solid over his last few outings. Both starting pitchers held the opposition scoreless, ultimately leading to a 1-0 win for the Braves on the heels of a Casey Kotchman sacrifice fly in the eighth inning.

Jesse Carlson, who had relieved Halladay after the seventh, surrendered a ground-rule double to Matt Diaz to begin the inning. Diaz advanced to third on a Yunel Escobar groundout, before scoring thanks to Kotchman’s flyball in a plate appearance with a 3.29 leverage index. Mike Gonzalez closed out the game for Kawakami, extending the Blue Jays losing streak and preventing Halladay from notching career win 140.

Regardless, Halladay has been absolutely phenomenal in the win category that actually means something: wins above replacement. Since 2002, including a couple seasons with lesser playing time due to injuries, here are Roy’s win values: 7.8, 8.0, 3.2, 4.4, 5.7, 5.8, 7.6. Following this particular outing, Halladay’s present win value shot up to 2.7. And if you consider that, in 2001, his 2.34 FIP in 105.1 innings bests his output in 2004–3.79 FIP in 133.0 innings–then Halladay had to have been in the range of 3.2-3.5 wins back then as well.

Since becoming a full-time starting pitcher, Roy Halladay has never seen his overall contribution fall lower than at least a win above an average pitcher, and those numbers were produced in partial seasons. His lowest win value in a full season is an astonishing 5.7 wins. In other words, Roy’s “worst” full season exceeded the production level of Johan Santana last season.

In last week’s top game, Halladay provided but another valid reason as to why he should not be left out of best active pitcher discussions. At 31 years old, he might not have another decade in the tank, but another few healthy seasons at his current pace and those Hall of Fame discussions are going to pick up steam almost exponentially.

Much has been discussed over the last few days regarding the lists I have brought forth involving single-game WPAs exceeding 1.0, as well as the top performances of the year via the same win probability metric. I wanted to clear something up: just because Jon Lester‘s and Carlos Zambrano’s no-hitters do not show up in the top ten, does not mean that these games were inferior to those on the list. To truly determine which games were the best, something as simple as the Game Score would be just fine. The point of the previous posts, though, was to show interesting occurrences of WPA and which performances in 2008 added the most wins to a team.

Some great points evolved in the comments thread of the two-part series evaluating the top ten pitching WPA performances of the season. It is very difficult for a pitcher to post a single-game WPA above 1.0, counting only pitching, unless he manages to log 12+ innings. As we saw last night, of the 13 pitchers to accrue a WPA above 1.0 since 1974, only two featured pitchers logging under 8.2 innings. In fact, one threw 10.2, two threw 11, and five threw 13!

Mark Mulder’s 2005 game was mentioned in the thread as well; in that game, Mulder tossed a 10-inning complete game shutout. He only managed to amass a 0.832 WPA, leading us to wonder which pitchers have come closest in recent history. Was Mulder the closest? Below are the top ten WPA performances from 2000-2008:

Roy Halladay    9/6/03   10 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB,  5 K   0.936 WPA
AJ Burnett      6/26/05   9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB,  7 K   0.904 WPA
Jason Schmidt   5/18/04   9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K   0.856 WPA
Brad Penny      4/4/02    9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB,  3 K   0.834 WPA
Al Leiter       4/18/02   9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB,  8 K   0.834 WPA
Johan Santana   8/12/05   9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB,  9 K   0.834 WPA
Mark Mulder     4/23/05  10 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB,  5 K   0.832 WPA
Steve Trachsel  5/6/00    9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 K   0.818 WPA
Brad Radke      9/17/00   9 IP, 8 H, 0 ER, 1 BB,  4 K   0.815 WPA
Curt Schilling  6/7/07    9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB,  4 K   0.811 WPA

All of these were complete-game shutouts, with Schilling and Schmidt coming within pitches of a no-hitter. Schilling’s game was the one during which he shook off Jason Varitek before surrendering his lone hit at the end of the game. Mulder’s 2005 game may be the most recent wherein a pitcher logged ten or more innings while shutting the opponent out, but Halladay did the same thing two years earlier, earning about a full tenth of a win more than Mulder.

What happens when we incorporate the Game Score? Looking at the top game scores from 2000-2008, Schmidt’s performance in 2004 ranked ninth, with a 97 GSC, and Halladay’s 2003 performance ranked 97th. None of the others in the top ten via WPA finished amongst the top 100 game scores this decade. When evaluating single-game performances, the game score is likely the best way to do so, or at least the WPA/LI, but it is nevertheless interesting to see which games brought with them the most added wins to a team.

< rant >

Earlier this week, I poked some good-natured fun at the BBWAA for their Rookie of the Year award voting. See, Edinson Volquez of the Reds finished fourth in the balloting, yet he is not a rookie. Just because nobody heard of him prior to this year does not automatically deem him eligible as a rookie. I mentioned how numerous bloggers, myself included, had been running a year-long ballot for the three major end of season awards, and we knew from the get-go that Volquez did not qualify. I thought a transgression like this could forgotten, but after seeing the voting totals for the AL Cy Young Award today, I legitimately felt like finding the addresses of some voters and berating them until they gave solid enough reasoning for their selections.

Cliff Lee deserved to win, so let’s clear that up right now. My anger has nothing to do with his victory. He would have had my vote if I were so privileged. He may not repeat this performance next season, but a 2.54 ERA, 2.83 FIP, and K/BB above 5.0, combined with a 5.96 WPA and league best 4.76 WPA/LI is definitely worthy of an award honoring the best pitcher of the season. Halladay may faced stiffer competition, and twirled nine complete games, but honestly, Lee deserved this.

My anger stems from the balloting after that, even though a correction ultimately would not have changed the result. Roy Halladay finished in second place, which is appropriate. In any other season, Doc likely would have run away with the award, with his 2.78 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 246 innings logged, K/BB above 5.0, and 4.27 WPA/LI. He even received four first-place votes, meaning four writers and voters felt he legitimately had a better season than Lee. Lee, of course, finished in second place on each of those ballots.

Given how these two pitchers were, far and away, the cream of the crop in the junior circuit, I expected to see Halladay register anywhere from 20-24 of the remaining second place votes. How many did he register? 15. A little math shows then that, of the 24 remaining ballots that did not put Halladay as the top candidate, nine voters felt someone else was legitimately better and more deserving.

Now, given that Francisco Rodriguez broke the saves record this season, I then expected that those remaining nine second-place votes belonged to K-Rod. A quick glance at the total tallies showed that K-Rod only received seven of those nine second-place votes. So where did the other two go? Thanks for asking, they went to Daisuke Matsuzaka of the Red Sox. Yes, the same Daisuke that posted a 2.90 ERA, lower than Halladay, a 4.03 FIP, a full run lower than Halladay, a K/BB ratio under 1.70, and who didn’t even record 170 innings pitched.

Two voters felt that Daisuke had a better season than Halladay. Even using the W-L record, Daisuke did go 18-3, but Halladay won 20 games and did it on a team with an offense considerably worse than the Red Sox. Clearly, voters have to know this, right? Further, Daisuke wasn’t even the best pitcher on his own team, as Jon Lester ran away with those honors. And Lester received NO votes at all! In essence, we have a situation where two second-place votes were given to a pitcher who not only did not deserve them over the rightful owner, but had no business receiving more votes than another pitcher better than him on his own team.

With my anger brewing, my eyes shifted to the third-place column, where I expected to see that Roy Halladay had racked up 9 votes. After all, there are 28 ballots, and he received 4 first-place and 15 second-place votes. I haven’t taken arithmetic since the second grade, but that leaves nine unanswered ballots for Halladay. Guess how many third place votes he had. Six. Nine minus six equals three. That means… wait for it… three voters felt that Roy Halladay had no place on their ballot?

ARE YOU KIDDING ME? I mean, seriously, are you kidding me!? I don’t even care if Mariano Rivera had a much better season than K-Rod, or that Lester had a better year than Daisuke, or that Ervin Santana had a better year than BOTH Lester and Daisuke. No, what I care about is that three voters filled in a name under first place, second place, and third place, and none of those names were Roy Halladay. Three writers filled out AL Cy Young Award ballots with some combination of Lee-Rodriguez-Santana or Lee-Rodriguez-Rivera, or Lee-Rodriguez-Daisuke, or Lee-Daisuke-Mussina, or any of the other possibe combinations sans Halladay.

To me, this is absolutely atrocious, and if I were in charge, it would be grounds for revoking voting privileges. Even the caveman baseball stats peg Halladay as better than pretty much anyone other than Lee. I write two articles per day here at Fangraphs, 1-2 per week at Statistically Speaking, 4-8 a month at Baseball Prospectus, and chime in every now and then at The Hardball Times, WHILE managing the workload of a graduate business student, responsibilities as a screenwriter, a tax preparer, and a few other web-based jobs, and I was still able to find 10-15 minutes to really analyze the numbers of all of these candidates. None of this is designed to toot my own horn, but rather to show that I am equally as busy, if not moreso, than those with voting privileges.

And yet, someone who “doesn’t live in their mother’s basement,” who is “around the players” and “at the ballpark,” with nothing to do other than meet their deadline with an article full of drivel, cannot do the same? I honestly don’t know what else to say on this one. If Albert Pujols doesn’t win the NL MVP award, well…

< /rant >

The Cy Young Award in the American League is more than likely going to go to Cliff Lee, and deservedly so. After all, he leads all starters in WPA/LI, has the highest K/BB in baseball, the lowest WHIP, the most innings, the most complete games, ranks third in strikeouts… oh wait, that’s Roy Halladay of the Blue Jays. Throughout this entire season we have watched in shock, disbelief, and awe as Cliff Lee put together one tremendous season. His season, however, is not that much better than Roy Halladay’s, and many fans could make very good cases that Halladay has had the better year.

On the season, which happens to be the best full season of Doc’s career, Roy has a 5.06 WPA/LI (5.19 when you count his one relief appearance), a 5.60 K/BB ratio, a 1.06 WHIP, 2.79 ERA, and a 2.98 FIP. By all accounts, his is one of the best season’s over the last eight or nine years, but it is very likely it will not be recognized as such when the baseball writer’s vote. Now, I’m never one to cry over “injustices” especially when these athletes are making more money than my entire street combined, but in a year when K-Rod broke the saves record and Cliff Lee came out of nowhere to post ridiculous numbers, Halladay will be lucky to even receive some first or second place votes.

If you look past the rates, his numbers get even better, as his 228.2 IP lead all AL starters, as do his 8 complete games. His 196 strikeouts ranks third in the junior circuit. W-L record, as we know, is a terrible evaluative barometer, but it is extremely hard for many to look at a record like Lee’s 22-2 and think that someone who went 18-11 was more effective. Run support could help explain this, though; Lee has the fourth highest at 6.16 RS/9 while Halladay’s is twelfth lowest at 4.57 RS/9. If Halladay had anywhere near the run support of Lee, and his record was more like 23-5 or 21-7, don’t you think more people would be discussing him as a legitimate contender?

This just magnifies the problems with W-L record, not just in the mainstream but even in the world of analysis, because whether realized or not, it is very, very difficult to block the W-L out of our minds. Moving forward, Halladay is much more likely to repeat, or come close to repeating, this year’s performance. Even though both have very sustainable BABIP’s hovering around the .300 mark, Lee’s LOB% is close to 80%, which might be sustainable for Randy Johnson 2001-03 or Pedro 1999-00, but probably not the Cliffmeister. Additionally, his HR/FB is an unsustainably low 4.9%. Halladay’s numbers in these areas are very close to the league average.

Aspects like moving forward or which pitcher is “more real” are not taken into account in a Cy Young Award race, and Lee will very likely win the award based on his performance and how good of a story it is, but make no mistake, Roy Halladay is putting the finishing touches on his best year, a masterpiece of a season, one just as good, if not better than Lee’s, and he deserves all the accolades that may or may not come his way.

Entering the season the Blue Jays felt that, with even a little run support, their starting pitching could do wonders to help propel them to victory. Roy Halladay has been a top-tier pitcher for a while now, even garnering compliments from President Bush; AJ Burnett is a flamethrower who has steadily produced over the last few years; and young Dustin McGowan looks poised to build on the success he experienced last year.

While most teams would kill to have three #1 or #2 starters at the front of their rotation, the Blue Jays actually have a fourth guy that, early into this season, has arguably contributed more to his team than all but two starting pitchers in the entire sport.

Shaun Marcum ranks third in WPA amongst all starting pitchers at 1.86, and has allowed just 30 hits in 56.2 innings of work.

Since becoming a starter in early May of last year, Marcum has posted the following numbers:

2007: 25 GS, 11-4, 142.2 IP, 43 BB, 100 K, 3.91 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
2008: 8 GS, 4-2, 56.2 IP, 16 BB, 49 K, 2.22 ERA, 0.81 WHIP

When put together it looks like a very solid, Cy Young Award contending full season:

33 GS, 15-6, 199.1 IP, 59 BB, 149 K, 3.43 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

Marcum is holding opponents to a .151/.217/.281 slash line and has left 80% of runners on base. His BABIP of .184 has been better than his .266 xBABIP, so this slash line is not very likely to keep up but he has definitely made his mark as a top-of-the-line #4 starter; especially considering there are some teams on which he would be a #2 starter.

An interesting note about Marcum’s success is his lack of fastball usage. Of non-Tim Wakefield starters, only four pitchers use their fastball less often; he throws it just 38% of the time. In fact, rotation-mates Jesse Litsch and Halladay come in at #2 and #9 in that same category.

Perhaps this vast repertoire of pitch selection and frequency helps provide the Blue Jays with one of the top rotations in the game. Either way, Marcum should not be overlooked as an up and coming and effective starter, regardless of how well his rotation-mates perform.

Blue Jays righty Roy Halladay has earned his reputation as being a top-tier pitcher, one of the best this decade. Predominantly utilizing a combo of fastballs, cutters, and curveballs, Halladay keeps the ball on the ground, generating grounders just about 60% of the time. Though he has suffered some injuries in the last few years, when healthy, going late into games is not an issue; he has pitched 220+ innings in four of the last six years. This durability has led to 32 complete games since 2002, seven more than closest competitor Livan Hernandez. The entire AL had 64 complete games last year and Halladay accounted for seven of them.

There have been 16 complete games this year and Halladay currently has four of them. Additionally, his other two starts have seen him go for seven and eight innings respectively. Oddly enough, despite pitching a complete in each of his last four starts, his W-L in that span is 1-3. His three consecutive complete game losses ties a Blue Jays record set in 1980 by Jim Clancy. The last pitcher to lose consecutive complete games is another Roy: Roy Oswalt, who did so in 2006.

The last major league pitcher to throw four consecutive complete games? Well, that would be Halladay back in 2003. The all time record for consecutive complete games belongs to Jack Lynch, with 198; his record was compiled between 1881 and 1887. Halladay would need an average of 33 starts in each of his next seasons just to make 198 starts, let alone go the distance.

Very interesting about his complete games is that he is not overextending himself by throwing a ton of pitches. Through 49.2 innings he has thrown 648 pitches, which amounts to an average of 13 per inning. His complete games have consisted of the following pitch counts: 110, 117, 107, 112. The Blue Jays have scored 115 runs this year, just 17 of which have come in Halladay’s six starts. The team has provided an average of 4.67 runs/gm in non-Halladay games and just 2.83 runs/gm for their ace. Hopefully the team can start scoring runs or else this former Cy Young Award winner may find himself qualifying for next month’s edition of unluckiest pitchers.