Archive for Roy Halladay

Among the players who’ll appear on next year’s Hall of Fame ballot, Mariano Rivera is likely to stand out as a no-doubter in his first try. He’s the all-time saves leader. He was dominant in the regular season and even more dominant in the playoffs. He’s regarded as the greatest reliever ever, and he did it all with just a single pitch.

Roy Halladay might not possess the same quantity of superlatives as Rivera, but he is worthy of enshrinement and there is little reason to delay his entry to the Hall past next year. Halladay’s untimely passing will likely bring a more somber tone to his candidacy. At this site, both Jeff Sullivan and Dave Cameron wrote touching tributes to Halladay’s career after his death. That said, Halladay needn’t benefit from sympathy or nostalgia to earn a place in the Hall. His case on the merits is very strong.

Based on the traditional measures alone, the argument for Halladay is decent, if not rock solid. Some notable facts:

• He has 200 pitcher wins and two Cy Young Awards. Every other pitcher to do so is in the Hall of Fame except for Roger Clemens.
• Of the 76 pitchers with at least a single Cy Young Award, only 15 recorded at least 200 wins and an ERA of 3.38 (Halladay’s career ERA) or better. Among that group, only Roger Clemens and Vida Blue (who pitched in a lower run-scoring environment) are absent from the Hall of Fame.
• In addition to Halladay’s two Cy Youngs, he finished second in the voting twice, third once, and fifth place on two more occasions. According to Cy Young Shares at Baseball Reference, Halladay’s total of 3.5 is behind only Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Clayton Kershaw, Steve Carlton, Pedro Martinez, Jim Palmer, and Tom Seaver.

So this is already a good start, but Halladay’s case goes well beyond these basic facts, too.

Halladay’s career was defined by greatness in an era dominated by hitters. Consider: since 1901, only 203 pitchers have reached 2,500 innings. Of those 203 pitchers, Halladay’s 3.38 career ERA ranks just 91st. But offense was hovering around record levels during much of his time as an active player. Relative to the era in which he pitched, Halladay’s actually prevented runs at a rate 24% better than average, and that mark actually ranks 15th since 1901. All 14 pitchers ahead of him by that measure are in the Hall of Fame except for Roger Clemens.

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Similar to my post earlier in the summer on what a beautifully morbid season Cliff Lee was having, I tend to have a fascination with the way baseball sometimes refuses to be fair. I blame Tom Paciorek.

When I was 5 years old, I wrote Paciorek and asked him if he had any advice about how to get to the big leagues. After checking my mail obsessively over the next four months, I got an envelope with a Seattle Mariner trident on it. I tore it open. “Tom Paciorek! Tom Paciorek! Tom Paciorek!” I hollered, sprinting through through the house, waving the letter in the air.

And what sage advice did I receive? “Kid,” Paciorek wrote, “in baseball, you’re either the hero or the goat. – Tom.”

From those few words, my passion was born.

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The Philadelphia Phillies aren’t accustomed to hovering around the .500 mark, let alone falling on the wrong side of it. Winners of five straight division titles, the team and its core members are used to playing solid baseball and firming up grasps on playoff berths. Throughout this recent run of success, the front office has used the trade deadline to bolster the roster, fix a glaring weakness, or just strengthen an area not previously considered an outright strength. All the while there was never substantial doubt that they would contend.

The situation may play out differently this season, as the Phillies are now 29-33, four games under .500, and eight games behind the first-place Washington Nationals.

While their struggles were somewhat predictable given the extended absences of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard — which were known before the season — and the in-season injuries to Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Vance Worley, Carlos Ruiz, Jim Thome and Laynce Nix, the fact remains that the team isn’t playing good baseball and doesn’t really seem primed to right the ship.

With a number of roster decisions on the horizon, their play of late has raised questions about when the team should legitimately consider selling off assets in an attempt to replenish a depleted farm system and regroup for next year. Seeing that they are eight games behind the Nationals and 6.5 games behind the second wild card team, that time may be fast approaching.

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Perhaps the story of the Phillies in ye old National League Championship Series of 2010 is the story of missed opportunities at the plate. We know how poor of a statistic batting average is, but Ryan Howard was the only regular to top .261, so the bats weren’t hot. The entire team put up a .216/.311/.321 line, which is somewhere between “that’s disappointing” and “OMGz, trade that bum Chase Utley (.182/.333/.227) like yesterday” depending on your current state of mind. A team that hit .260/.332/.413 during the season didn’t come close to equaling that production in a six-game stretch. It happens, and it seems there’s no reason to slice and dice that sample any smaller.

Or maybe there is. Because we’ve talked about this team’s struggles against lefthanders at times. Looking at the series as a whole, though, the Phillies managed “only” 10 runs, 18 hits (7 extra base) and 9 walks in 21 innings against lefties. Perhaps we only remember the high-profile strikeouts – and the Giants’ LHPs did strike out 23 in those 21 innings. Even if we think the overall line overstates the case and want to consider the leverage index of all those Javier Lopez outings, in particular, he only averaged a 1.4 LI while compiling that 2.08 ERA and getting those 13 outs. Impressive? Yes. Higher-than-average pressure in those situations? Yes. The reason the Phillies lost the series? Hardly. The Phillies had chances and we obviously can’t blame their lack of offense all on their overall performance against lefties.

The word going in was that even if the Phillies offense was going to have a little trouble with this staff, their own pitching staff would easily neutralize the poor Giants offense. After all, the Giants were the only playoff team with a below-average wOBA and the Phillies had Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. That trio didn’t perform poorly – they pitched 33 innings and allowed 13 runs, striking out 34 against only six walks. Perhaps more was expected of Roy Halladay after his no-hitter in the first round, but he did strain that groin and you don’t point at three pitchers that pitched 65% of your innings to a 3.27 ERA and say, there, that’s your problem right there.

The bullpen? 13 innings, three runs. The defense? Four errors to the Giants’ three – and even if you want to say errors are a poor gauge of defense, you’d have to admit they played about even on the field in that regard. Timely hitting? Sure, but what can you really do about that, and how much of that is the short sample? Want to blame Ryan Howard just ’cause? Check Dave Cameron’s defense.

It was a tight series. Javier Lopez certainly helped the Giants, and the San Francisco staff deserves some credit for keeping a good offense down. Play this series a million times, though, and the Philadelphia squad probably wins close to half of ’em. The Phillies didn’t play terribly and don’t have an obvious scapegoat going into the offseason, so all they can do is find a way to replace Jayson Werth if he leaves (preferably with a right-handed bat), rework the bullpen as good teams do every offseason, and give it another shot next year.

I’m nothing if not predictable. Why change a horse in midstream, the saying goes.

Roy Halladay, October 6, 2010

Roy Halladay, October 21, 2010

Yup, more strike zone plots from Brooks Baseball. And Carson’s out here pushing the limits in his previews. But these two game plots are pretty different, eh? Then let me blow you away with yet another strike zone plot, eh?

Looks like Halladay was having a little trouble locating low-and-away to left-handers, no? Or, at least low-and-away in general. In any case, it’s a nice way to show, in pictures, what it looks like to win “without your best stuff,” as the game stories most likely went today. Halladay grit and grissioned his way through the start while Tim Lincecum was the valiant loser, mostly because of some poor defense behind him.

Lincecum is not left-handed, and that probably helped lefties Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and the recently unbenched Raul Ibanez to a stunning 3-for-12 in game five. That group, along with Domonic Brown, is now a combined 10-for-51 with 7 walks and 3 extra-base hits, which sounds bad except the whole team is now batting .208. Perhaps the struggles of the left-handed batter from Philadelphia were overstated.

Raul Ibanez, though, that guy shook off his benching in a strong way. One of his two hits led to the first run of the game and started that third inning that featured all the little league defense a big-league audience could handle. Placido Polanco was the WPA champ on the offensive side for singling in the third run in the third inning (+8.5%), but somehow Ibanez sticks out.

It was a nice respite. Now, because of the Roy Oswalt Decision, the Phillies still face an uphill climb in game six.

The weekend took your faithful Phillie correspondents to places we didn’t expect, and none of those places featured wifi and a comfy moment to kick back and review the first two games of the NLCS. Better late than never. The Phillies and Giants split the weekend, which wasn’t great for the maroon marauders because the series tilted lightly in the Giants’ favor with those results – teams that win one of two games on the road in a seven-game MLB series win the series 56.2% of the time.

Game One was just one of those games, it seems. Seven innings, eight hits, seven strikeouts, no walks and more ground balls than fly balls doesn’t seem like a line that would normally produce four earned runs, but that’s what happened to Roy Halladay Saturday night. The difference between excellent and a -8.8% WPA night for the Doc could have been summed up in two fly balls from Cody Ross that ended up in the seats. This same Cody Ross had exactly average power this year (.145 ISO) and had gone -for-16 against Halladay in his career. The same Cody Ross that was Cody Ross the Marlin until Brian Sabean briefly made him Randy Myers by supposedly claiming him just to block the Padres. Then the Giants then realized that he was better than Jose Guillen, at least in the field, so that he could become the Cody Ross, Giant, that the Bay Area now knows and loves. Either way, you read that fateful name backward as Grant did on the McCovey Chronicles, and you get “ssoR y doC,” which is about all that can be said to Halladay, who pitched well enough to win.

It did seem like the Phillie offense could have put together a five spot – Tim Lincecum wasn’t at his best either. He walked more (three), and gave up equal numbers of fly balls and ground balls, but he also struck out eight – one of which was Ryan Howard with two batters on in a tie game in the third inning (worth 6.6% in WPA alone). Though the two teams had the same amount of baserunners, and the Phillies showed a better slugging percentage as a team, it was the Giants that strung together the hits in the big moments.

The following may seem random – and most likely was – but the big lineup change between games one and two may have had a little bit to do with the different outcomes. As Rob Neyer noted before the game Sunday, Charlie Manuel reversed Placido Polanco and Chase Utley in the batting order so that the heart of the order did not include two straight lefties in Utley and Howard.

It’s a little strange to see Polanco and his lack of power batting third, and it may feel like separating two lefties isn’t that big of a deal, but just look at what the Giants did in the two games for your pudding-based proof. In Game One, Javier Lopez brought his lefty sidearm release to the mound to get Utley to ground out and Howard to strike out before leaving in a double switch that would have made Dusty Baker proud. In Game Two, Bruce Bochy brought Ramon Ramirez out to pitch to the righty Shane Victorino, but after Victorino sacrificed, he was faced with the choice of walking the lefty Utley to keep Ramirez in the game and pitch to Polanco, or burning Lopez on Utley, bringing in Sergio Romo to pitch to Polanco, and then summoning Jeremy Affeldt to get Howard. That is a lot of relievers, but with the off-day coming today, the second move-heavy approach is probably what Bochy should have done. Instead, this is what happened:

Bottom 7th: Philadelphia
– R. Oswalt singled to shallow center
– R. Ramirez relieved J. Sanchez
– S. Victorino sacrificed to third, R. Oswalt to second
– C. Utley intentionally walked
– P. Polanco singled to shallow center, R. Oswalt scored, C. Utley to second
– J. Affeldt relieved R. Ramirez
– C. Utley stole third, P. Polanco stole second
– R. Howard struck out swinging
– J. Werth intentionally walked
– P. Sandoval at third
– S. Casilla relieved J. Affeldt
– J. Rollins doubled to deep center, C. Utley, P. Polanco and J. Werth scored
– R. Ibanez lined out to third

4 runs, 3 hits, 0 errors
San Francisco 1, Philadelphia 6

Don’t underestimate the difference the new lineup made, as it obviously made Bochy’s life difficult in the seventh inning Sunday night (and then he went and made some dubious decisions of his own). Now it’s clear that he’ll have to use both of his lefties to get through the heart of the order late in game three, provided his starter once again gets the job done against the new-look lineup.

Two quotes rattled around in my brain as I prepared to write this preview:

“Every pitcher is Roy Halladay to the Giants. You know what kind of pitchers do well against the Giants? The ones with noses.” – Grant, from the McCovey Chronicles in his post called “Sizing up the Phillies’ starting rotation“

“I’ve been calling for a long time to see metrics about how hitters and pitchers fare against different types and/or quality of opponents. In the postseason, this is really all that matters.” – Commenter B N, on the review of Game Three of the NLDS

If this were the mainstream media, it would be so easy to say something semi-resolute and catchy about this matchup. Tim Lincecum has a 3.17 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in seven career games against the Phillies. Roy Halladay has a 7.23 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in three games. OMGz! Don’t count the Giants out! They have Halladay’s number!

Hardly. Of course. Those numbers are career splits, and what do starts against other iterations of these lineups even mean? Diddly. And then, if we try to boil it down to splits in this season, we get one poor game for Halladay against the Giants (seven innings, ten hits, five runs, five strikeouts and no walks) and one excellent game for Lincecum (eight and a third innings, three hits, two runs, 11 strikeouts and one walk).

But somehow we want to find something we can say with some amount of certainty this year. And since head-to-head matchups won’t give us a sample worth discussing, we’ll have to see how these teams do against certain types of pitchers in our (probably fruitless) aim to say something about this one, single game on Saturday.

Maybe we can say something like: in 2010, the Giants had an X OPS against pitchers like Halladay. Dangit, who’s like Halladay? Or rather, what kind of a pitcher is he? He throws 93, doesn’t walk anyone (1.08 BB/9), and gets groundballs (51.2% this year). Is he a groundballer? A finesse pitcher? A power pitcher? Lincecum throws only 91 this year, but gets more strikeouts (9.79 this year) and fewer groundballs (48.9%). Can we call him a power pitcher? A guy who walks 3.22 per nine doesn’t seem to be a finesse pitcher.

The inspiration for this line of reasoning is the team splits pages on Baseball-Reference.com. Thankfully, they have a definition there:

Power pitchers are in the top third of the league in strikeouts plus walks. Finesse are in the bottom third of the league in strikeouts plus walks.

Ah-hah. So Tim Lincecum = ‘power’ pitcher, Roy Halladay = ? Let’s just not bother with how the Giants do against finesse pitchers – we already ‘know’ that every pitcher looks like Roy Halladay to them from the quote at the top. However, Lincecum seems to fit the definition for a power pitcher, so how do the Phils do against power pitchers? Answer: not as well as they do against finesse pitchers. Their 99 sOPS+ against power pitchers is well below their 110 sOPS+ against finesse pitchers.

Otherwise, the Phillies lead the Giants in batting RAR (27.9 to -14.6) and starters’ RAR (144.5 to 141.4; and more once Roy Oswalt is considered). The Giants lead in bullpen RAR (59.1 to 25.8) and defense (8.5 to 0.8 UZR/150). If there wasn’t the hint that the Phillies’ offense might not be as good against power pitchers, it would be tempting to take the team with the better lineup and starter in game one and in the series.

Here’s one thing we can actually say with certainty: It will be interesting to see Lincecum face off against Halladay. Phew. How’s that for resolute?

Roy Halladay? Roy Halladay. Roy Halladay, Roy Halladay, Roy Halladay. Roy Halladay!

With due respect to Shane Victorino, whose two hits and two RBI helped him lead all batters with a .179 WPA, it was one of those games where you felt like the pitcher could have won it by himself, even with a lineup filled with nine Roy Halladays. In fact, Doctober’s one hit (a liner to left that Johnny Gomes misplayed) and RBI were good for a .079 WPA, second on the team, so in this case that was true. A team full of Roy Halladays would have won this game. He accounted for 80.4% of the teams WPA.

But of course it was his work on the mound that was so impressive. He showed legendary control in pitching his no-hitter, only producing 25 balls on 104 pitches. He induced weak groundball after weak groundball (12 of them, to 6 fly balls). He was efficient – using only 11.6 pitches per inning. He was dominant. He had the kind of game that will go down in history right next to Don Larsen’s perfect game. He produced a game of which everyone who watched felt unworthy. He was awe-some.

And yet, he had a tiny bit of help, including a great play by Carlos Ruiz to close out the game. Check out this game graph from Brooks Baseball, which shows that John Hirschbeck’s strikezone was a little bit generous on the sides, but nothing that Orlando Cabrera should have been whining about:

Doesn’t matter. Halladay deserves all the credit he can get. Look at the strikezone plot of his pitches, an exercise in control and command:

We wondered how hungry Halladay was in the Lincoln-Douglas Remix preview, and it seems he’s hungry enough to eat the postseason. Second no-no in postseason history? Amazing. First postseason appearance? Legendary. There are practically no adjectives that really get it all the way right.

FanGraphs Audio surprises even itself sometimes.

Episode Six
In which the panel considers pitchers young and old-ish.

Headlines
Second Half Jackson
Scherzer to the Max
The First Word in Johan is Yo (Almost)
Roy Halladay Is an Asian Freak
… and other hilarious misunderstandings!

Featuring
Matt Klaassen
Jack Moore

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jumpity-jump.

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No matter how you slice the Roy Halladay trade, it had to be done and Toronto fans were going to be let down. The trade could have brought three A-level prospects into the system and it still would have hurt… a lot. The rest of the fans around Major League Baseball are finally going to have the opportunity to appreciate Halladay after he’s spent the past 12 years in northern obscurity. The former Cy Young award winner has pitched 200+ innings for four straight seasons and is an undisputed No. 1 pitcher, and those are a lot rarer than most people realize.

Reportedly, there are six prospects changing hands once the trade is finalized. Toronto ends up receiving one A-level prospect and two B-level prospects, or a smidgen more than it would have if the organization had held onto Halladay for the entire 2010 season and then let him walk for two high draft picks. Overall, the talent changing hands in the three-team deal, which also sees Cliff Lee head to Seattle, ranks like this:

1. Kyle Drabek, RHP (from Philadelphia to Toronto)
2. Phillippe Aumont, RHP (from Seattle to Philadelphia)
3. Michael Taylor, OF (from Philadelphia to Toronto)
4. Travis D’Arnaud, C (from Philadelphia to Toronto)
5. Tyson Gillies, OF (from Seattle to Philadelphia)
6. J.C. Ramirez, RHP (from Seattle to Philadelphia)

To be honest, I’m not sure why this was a three-team deal. Toronto received nothing from Seattle. The Phillies organization could have done the deal and taken its the time to deal Lee for a better haul than what it got from Seattle. Perhaps the club wanted to soften the blow of trading off its post-season hero with the acquisition of Halladay? Or why not keep both Halladay and Lee and make a serious run at the World Series in 2010? That two-headed monster at the top of the rotation would have struck fear in any lineup.

But it’s not my job to analyze the overall deal. I’m the prospects guy, so let’s get on to the fun stuff.

The Toronto Blue Jays’ Haul:
Kyle Drabek is the key to the deal and helps to ease the pain from not receiving the Phillies’ top prospect in outfielder Domonic Brown (who definitely is the best player in all three organizations). The Toronto organization has pretty good pitching depth (at least related to its lack of hitting prospects) but Drabek has a higher ceiling (No. 1 or 2 starter) than anyone in the Jays system. The right-hander had a nice year in ’09 while coming back from Tommy John surgery.

He began the year in high-A and allowed just 49 hits in 61.2 innings. The son of Doug Drabek showed solid control with a walk rate of just 2.77 BB/9 and overpowered hitters, as witnessed by his 10.80 strikeout rate. He also did not allow a home run despite a modest ground-ball rate of 45.2%. Moved up to double-A, the 22-year-old hurler allowed 92 hits in 96.1 innings and saw his strikeout rate drop to 7.10 K/9. His walk rate, though, held steady at 2.90 BB/9. Home runs became a bit of an issue, as Drabek allowed nine homers (0.84 HR/9). His FIP rose from 1.82 to 3.83. He’s going to need to work on his change-up to combat left-handed hitters, who performed well against him in ’09: .284 compared to right-handers at .185.

On the negative side of Drabek: He’s a little undersized at 6’0”, he’s already had a major surgery, and there have been makeup/maturity concerns.

Michael Taylor had a solid but unspectacular college career at Stanford and signed with the Phillies as a fifth-rounder in ’07. The outfielder is a good athlete for his size (6’6”, 250 lbs) and stole 21 bases in 26 tries in ’09. The right-handed hitter, who hits right-handed and left-handed pitchers equally well, began the year in double-A. There, he hit .333/.408/.569 with an ISO of .236 in 318 at-bats. He’s not a big average hitter, despite what the basic numbers suggest and he was aided by a BABIP of .361. In 110 at-bats in triple-A, Taylor hit .282/.359/.491 with an ISO of .209. He projects to be a .270-.290 hitter in the Majors with 25 homers could even produce a couple of 20-20 seasons. He consistently walks about 10% of the time and keeps the strikeouts in check for a power hitter (around 17-18%). Defensively, Taylor has a solid arm and has spent much of his time in the minors flipping between left and right field.

Travis D’Arnaud is a former highly-regarded prep draft pick. The ’07 supplemental first rounder has actually been surpassed as a prospect by his older brother Chase D’Arnaud, a shortstop who was a fourth-round pick of the Pirates out of Pepperdine University in ’08. Nonetheless, the 20-year-old catcher had a solid ’09 season in low-A ball and hit .255/.319/.419 in 482 at-bats. The right-handed hitter has some developing pop (.164 ISO) and modest strikeout rates (15.6% in ’09). His triple-slash line was hurt by a low .279 BABIP, which was down significantly from his ’08 mark of .345. D’Arnaud is a good athlete and he stole eight bases in 12 tries, but he’ll certainly slow down as the rigors of the position take its toll on his knees. Despite a strong arm, the young catcher has struggled to throw out base runners in pro ball and was successful 23% of the time in ’09.

Philadelphia Phillies’ Haul:
You certainly cannot question Phillippe Aumont’s fastball. He has a high-90s fastball and good sink but his secondary stuff is raw and he prefers to just reach back and toss heat, which is the main reason why he was moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen at such a young age. An inexperienced Canadian prep pick, Aumont was pushed aggressively by Seattle after he dominated high-A ball in a very good hitter’s league. He allowed just 24 hits in 33.1 innings and posted a strikeout rate of 9.45 K/9. Moved up to double-A, Aumont’s control suffered as his walk rate jumped from 3.24 to 5.60 BB/9. Batters also managed 21 hits in 17.2 innings, and his BABIP jumped to .436 BABIP. His strikeout rate was an impressive 12.23 K/9. Like many Canadian hurlers, there have also been injury concerns with Aumont, and he missed significant time in ’08 with elbow soreness.

You’d think it was the Phillies club that played in Canada, not the Jays. Outfielder Tyson Gillies joins Aumont as the two Canadians on the move in the Halladay deal. The 21-year-old outfielder had a breakout season in ’09 but some caution needs to be used with him. The left-handed hitter was playing in a very good hitter’s park and his overall line was .341/.430/.486. He hit .313 in ’08 but that was aided by a BABIP of .403 (His BABIP was high in ’09, as well, at .395). Gillies has a lot of speed and he stole 44 bases but was caught 19 times this past season, so he has some work to do on the base paths. On the positive side, he has solid plate rates for a speedster and he posted a walk rate of 10.8%, as well as a strikeout rate of 16.3%. Defensively, he’s considered a gifted fielder with an above-average arm.

J.C. Ramirez has posted solid pro numbers but has yet to truly breakout. The right-hander spent ’09 in high-A, while pitching in a good hitter’s park, and allowed 153 hits in 142.1 innings. His walk rate was respectable at 3.35 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was OK at 7.02, although it was down more than one strikeout per nine over his career mark. He was touched up for 18 homers (1.14 HR/9) but he held batters to a line-drive rate of just 12%. Ramirez has consistently struggled against left-handed batters in his career (.290 average, 4.32 BB/9 in ’09), so he’s going to have to develop a weapon to combat them. His repertoire includes a fastball that sits in the low-90s but can hit the mid-to-upper 90s at times. Ramirez also has a solid slider and a developing change-up.