Archive for Royals

Well, what do you know? We have finally made it to the top offensive play of this entire 2008 baseball season, and it happens to belong to a member of the Kansas City Royals. David DeJesus, to be exact. Somehow, the Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, and Seattle Mariners—four of the worst teams in baseball this past season—managed to find themselves involved in the top two offensive plays of the year. Ain’t baseball great? DeJesus’s big play, which will be prefaced and summarized below, provided a win expectancy swing of 90.36%, about one-third to one-half of a percentage point ahead of Ronnie Belliard‘s second-best play, and Pat Burrell’s third-place home run.

The game took place on July 12, in a matchup between Gil Meche and Jarrod Washburn. It also saw Horacio Ramirez, then a member of the Royals, take on his former teammates in Seattle. Would Horacio seek revenge? Oh, that’s right, he isn’t good enough to merit a storyline. Moving on. Take a look at the big spike at the end, as it is the biggest such spike this past season:

DeJesus has had an interesting career to date. His numbers in 2005, 2006, and 2008, are eerily similar, not just in raw totals but rates as well. 2007 appears to be an outlier, as his .291 BABIP was much lower than the .330+ marks he showed himself capable of in 2005, 2006, and 2008. Not many fans know about his production and potential, but he managed to put the Kansas City Royals in first place in at least one category this year: the top offensive plays.

After giving up a leadoff single to Ichiro Suzuki, Meche retired the next three hitters in the top of the first. His counterpart Washburn did not fare as well, as the Royals tacked on two quick runs on the heels of singles by Mark Grudzielanek and Alex Gordon. After one inning, the Royals led by a score of 2-0, that would last for no more than an inning. In the bottom of the second, Mark Teahen hit into a fielder’s choice, scoring Esteban German, and extending the lead to three runs.

After five innings, Meche was absolutely cruising, having walked nobody, allowed no runs to score, and given up just four hits, two of which belonged to Tug Hulett. In the sixth, however, he fell apart. Ichiro once again led off with a single, and two batters later, scored on a home run by Raul Ibanez. Jose Vidro then followed with a single. Adrian Beltre added a single of his own. With two on, and one out, Jeremy Reed hit a double, scoring both Vidro and Beltre, and giving the Mariners the 4-3 lead. The Royals’ win expectancy began the inning at 86.9%, and by the time it ended, had plummeted to 38.9%, a dropoff of 48 percentage points.

When the bottom of the seventh came to its close, their win expectancy had further been reduced to 24.9%. A 1-2-3 inning later from Horacio Ramirez, it had been nominally increased to 30%, but their offense appeared stagnant, and it was only a matter of time before the hard-throwing Brandon Morrow would enter the game. Sean Green and Arthur Rhodes kept the Royals off the scoreboards in the eighth, meaning the ninth inning would begin with the Royals having just a 16% probability of winning the game.

Horacio added another 1-2-3 inning, giving the Royals a 19.7% probability of winning as Morrow entered. John Buck struck out looking, and Ross Gload grounded out to second. Their win expectancy was now a measly 4.6%. Billy Butler then walked, to give the Royals a glimmer of hope. He was lifted in favor of speedster Joey Gathright, who would look to get himself into scoring position for a potential tie game. He didn’t even need to, as only a few pitches later, with just a 9.6% probability of winning, David DeJesus launched a two-run homer into orbit, blowing the save for Morrow, and winning the game for the Royals. His home run, worth a swing in expectancy of 90.36%, was the top offensive play of the 2008 baseball season.

Brian Bannister made quite the saber splash this off-season when he professed his love of sabermetrics and advanced statistical analysis to unearth exactly what would make him successful. One of his goals involved staying ahead of the hitters, which would in turn reduce his BABIP against. For the most part, this worked in 2007, as he kept hitters at bay with a .266 BABIP. This well below the average mark helped his 3.87 ERA vastly outdo his 4.40 FIP.

In addition to balls put in play against him failing more often than most others to result in hits, his HR/FB was a very low 6.8%. If the average in this category is around 11-12%, then not only was he successful in preventing hits, but he didn’t give up much in the home run department either. So why the 4.40 FIP? Well, he didn’t strike anyone out and his BB/9 was not ridiculously low relative to the strikeout total. All told, his K/BB was a meager 1.75 last year.

This year, things have seemingly changed. His 5.96 ERA is over two full runs worse, his HR/FB has just about doubled to 12%, and 11 of his 25 starts have resulted in five or more earned runs crossing the plate. His latest start featured ten runs in one inning. Though he has definitely had some great games this year, when 44% of your starts involve 5+ earned runs, then either your controllable skills have faltered or you are very unlucky… or both.

If his controllable skills had truly imploded, then his FIP likely wouldn’t be just a half-run higher than last year. Despite his 5.96 ERA, his FIP is a run lower at 4.94. His HR/9 has jumped from 0.82 to 1.41, but his K/BB has risen from 1.75 to 1.94. Additionally, according to the xFIP statistic kept at The Hardball Times—which normalizes the home run component of FIP—Bannister has actually been pitching better this year.

Last year, when his ERA was 3.87 and FIP was 4.40, his xFIP was 5.14. This year, at 5.96 and 4.94, respectively, his xFIP comes in at 4.79. While he outdid his xFIP in both cases last year in the positive direction, both his ERA and FIP have done the opposite this year. It’s hard to convince people that someone with numbers seemingly as poor as his—a -2.02 WPA, -2.36 REW, and -1.39 WPA/LI—is actually performing a bit better than a year in which his surface numbers looked pretty solid, but this does seem to be the case.

I’m sure Banny the Math Whiz already knows this, but for any Royals fan upset with his performance, it isn’t nearly as bad as it looks.

One of the most sought after players leading up to, and at, the trading deadline was Kansas City Royals reliever Ron Mahay. I’m not sure if he was ever really going anywhere or if the media latched onto this effective lefty as a potential savior for some teams, brewing the trade winds themselves. Regardless, he stayed put and is still a late inning lefty for the Royals. In looking at his numbers, I was quite surprised (and embarrassed) to find out that he is actually in the midst of his twelfth big league season; I honestly had not heard of him prior to 2001.

From 1997-2002 his numbers jumped all over the place. Here are his FIPs and LOB% in that span:

1997: 4.23, 89.2%
1998: 5.02, 67.2%
1999: 3.38, 85.4%
2000: 6.54, 69.1%
2001: 5.41, 98.1%
2002: 8.01, 55.6%

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Mahay is what it appeared to be throughout these six years, but he apparently still performed well enough to earn more opportunities. That could largely be due to the fact that his career ERA is close to a full run below his FIP; the controllable skills might not be there but that does not automatically disqualify him from effectiveness. From 2003 to the midpoint of 2007 he played for the Rangers before being traded to Atlanta in the Mark Teixieira deal. In the off-season he signed with the Royals and has been one of the most effective relievers this year, and arguably the best non-closer.

In looking at the Relievers page on the leaderboards here, Mahay has the 5th highest WPA of any reliever in baseball. The top portion of that board is generally reserved to closers as they usually perform in the most pressure-filled situations; Mahay’s position means he has found himself in some tight jams and performed admirably in escaping from them.

Now, WPA is not an end-all barometer, but it does have more merit when dealing with relievers. Still, I like to think of it the way Dave Studeman thinks of it, as a “story stat,” one that mirrors our emotions in the game and tells the story of exactly what happened. Based on our emotions when watching, Mahay’s performance has been worth about three wins this year. Teammate Joakim Soria ranks second with a 3.57 WPA, so they have quite possibly been the best relief tandem in baseball this year, yet both are likely still unknown in numerous areas across the country.

When we look at WPA/LI, however, or context-neutral wins, Mahay falls to thirteenth, worth about one win. Soria ranks first in the whole league, at just about two wins, and another of their teammates, Ramon Ramirez, actually ranks ninth, ahead of Mahay. WPA/LI counts each plate appearance as its own entity and attempts to rid the bias in WPA that credits certain situations as being worth many more plate appearances. This tells us that Mahay has been very adept in late-inning situations but his overall performance has not been as incredible as we may think.

He is still performing very well and would most likely be an upgrade on any of the teams that received him, but he is not a savior. And especially considering his trade would have taken place at the deadline, when as Dave showed, the upgrades would not be as substantial with just fifty games remaining, you have to wonder how much of an upgrade he even would have been. As I said, he is a very good reliever relative to the last two years, but a team’s success should not hinge upon acquiring Ron Mahay.

Without thinking or checking, name the top four pitchers in WPA!

For the very few of you that correctly named, in order, Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders, Shaun Marcum, and Zach Greinke, I’ll e-mail you a personalized congratulatory eCard. Lee has been chronicled just about everywhere and Dave profiled Saunders not too long ago. I will take a look at Marcum this weekend but, for now, let’s talk some Zach Greinke.

Greinke has been the ace of the young Royals staff, posting the following numbers in his eight starts:

4-1, 1.93 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.75 K/BB, 7.0 IP/GS, 1.75 WPA, 17.47 BRAA

As mentioned above, his 1.75 WPA ranks fourth amongst all major league starters. His BRAA total of 17.47 and REW of 1.69 also rank fourth. I have received some questions with regards to REW so, to sum it up, REW produces a similar output as WPA but does so with the changes in run expectancy rather than win probability.

Greinke’s hot start has surprised many but a closer look at some recent statistic shows that it really should not be that shocking. He made 14 starts last year, with seven to open the season and seven to close it off. His first seven starts last year were subpar to the tune of:

0-4, 5.71 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 1.45 K/BB, 4.95 IP/GS, -0.301 WPA

Pitching out of the bullpen for the next 38 games helped Greinke as he seemed to regain confidence and improve his numbers. Moved back to the rotation at the end of the season, here are his numbers from the final seven starts:

2-2, 1.85 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.10 K/BB, 4.91 IP/GS, +0.864 WPA

The innings pitched per games started stayed very close but this was primarily due to Zach having to pitch himself back into starting shape; in the beginning of the season it had more to do with being ineffective. It does not take a rocket scientist, however, to deduce that his numbers at the end of the season were leagues better than at the start. Now, let’s put his final seven starts of last season next to his first eight this year:

2007: 1.85 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 3.10 K/BB, 4.9 IP/GS, +0.864 WPA
2008: 1.93 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.11 WHIP, 2.75 K/BB, 7.0 IP/GS, +1.750 WPA

Despite some subtle differences he is essentially building upon his success at the end of last season, my major reasoning for why his hot start should not come as a surprise to those paying full attention. One of the important areas not mentioned, though, deals with Greinke’s percentage of runners left on base. From 2002-2007, the highest two LOB% belong to Jake Peavy and Randy Johnson. In 2004, Peavy posted an 83.9 LOB%; in 2002, Johnson came in with 83.0%.

Greinke currently has an LOB% of 91.4, slightly ahead of Edinson Volquez and the aforementioned Cliff Lee. Unless Greinke plans on vastly outperforming pitchers this decade in that area, his LOB% is very likely to tail off as the season progresses, meaning more runs will score.

His balls in play rates have shifted recently, as well. In his career he has a LD/GB/FB of 21.7/36.9/41.3. Over his last 15 starts it is 15.9/41.3/42.8. Greinke may be able to turn in a great season but his significant shift in balls in play rates, coupled with his insanely high LOB%, tends to suggest he will not finish the season as rock solid as he currently looks.

Still, for a guy who battled depression and questioned whether or not he should continue to pitch, it is very fun to track his development as a major league pitcher.

This past Tuesday former all-star pitcher Jose Lima was released by the Kia Tigers of the Korean League following a few starts reminiscent of his 2005 and 2006 major league seasons. Lima, always known more for his personality than his on-field performance, suggested this would signal the end of his baseball career. The idea of a baseball world without Jose Lima, as evident in the video below, almost brought Jim Rome to tears—at least relative to what tears for Jim Rome equates to.

Being a fan of Lima’s while growing up I decided to take a look at his career, which got off to a rocky start with the Tigers in 1994. From 1994-96 he pitched in 153 innings, giving up 183 hits and 25 home runs. He had an ERA of 6.24 in that span and a WHIP of 1.48. He joined the Astros in 1997 in a blockbuster trade (Lima, Brad Ausmus, CJ Nitkowski, Trever Miller, and Daryle Ward for Doug Brocail, Brian Hunter, Todd Jones, and Orlando Miller) and, on the surface, had a below average year out of the bullpen. In 75 innings of work he gave up 44 runs; however, based on his FIP of 3.92 this was a pretty solid year. With a very impressive K:BB of 3.94 and just nine home runs allowed, Lima pitched himself into the Astros rotation the following year.

Making 33 starts in 1998 Lima went for 233.1 innings and a 16-8 record. He cut down on his hits per inning and allowed under one walk per game en route to a 1.12 WHIP and 5.28 K:BB. His 3.70 ERA translated to a 4.15 FIP—still very respectable. The major blemish on his season came in the form of home runs: He allowed 34 in what would begin a four-year span accompanied by a total of 147 surrendered dingers.

1999 proved to be his best season as he made the all-star team and garnered serious Cy Young Award consideration. In 35 starts and a career high 246.1 innings, Lima went 21-10 with a 3.58 ERA, 3.83 FIP, even cutting his home run count down; in two more starts he allowed four less home runs. His K:BB, however, dropped by over a full point, dipping from 5.28 to 4.25. Though 4.25 is still a darned good ratio it would soon prove to be the beginning of the end to Lima’s previously solid control rates. He went from one of the top seasons in 1999 to, without a doubt, one of the worst in 2000.

In 33 starts he surrendered a ridiculous 48 home runs, just two off Bert Blyleven’s record of 50. His K:BB plummeted from 4.25 to 1.82 as his WHIP ballooned to 1.62. He went from an ERA and FIP of 3.58 and 3.83 to 6.65 and 6.18. 2001 became all too similar as his numbers slightly improved but still fell into the category of very poor. Luckily, the Astros found a taker prior to the end of the season and shipped him back to Detroit in exchange for Dave Mlicki.

2002 brought with it some controversy as a frustrated Lima blamed manager Luis Pujols for some of his struggles. After not being used for 27 days Lima came into face the red-hot heart of the Royals batting order. Lima claimed Pujols put him in these situations to embarrass him, which did not make sense to him because, as only Lima could say, “..it’s not like I hit on his wife or anything!”

The Tigers soon released Lima, prompting this quote for the ages: “If I can’t pitch on this team—the worst or second-worst team in baseball—where am I going to pitch? If I can’t start on this ballclup I must be the worst pitcher on Earth.” According to his numbers, maybe not Earth, but definitely America.

2003 and 2004 saw Lima appear to improve though the numbers were a bit deceiving. Though he went 8-3 for the Royals in ’03 he had just a 1.23 K:BB and a 1.45 WHIP. In 2004 he went 13-5 with the Dodgers, but his ERA of 4.07 translated to a 5.24 FIP. While his 1998-99 seasons were of high quality, 2003 and 2004 were more likely closer to his bad seasons regardless of his 21-8 combined record. In 2005 he posted a 6.99 ERA, the highest of all-time for any pitcher with 30+ starts. Ironically, his FIP was over one point lower, at 5.89.

After separate stints with the 2006 Mets, Lima’s major league baseball career was over. He had been given more chances due to succes in the past and a bulldog personality but had not been particularly effective since 1999. His career was fun to watch as you could tell he really loved to play and always took time to interact with fans. He is the kind of player that many fans, myself included, wish had more talent because of the personality.

Without trying to get too sentimental as the career of someone I grew up with ends, I will always remember Lima for his 2004 playoffs shutout against the Cardinals. The Dodger crowd went crazy and as he kneeled to thank the heavens it was clear he meant every bit of the thankfulness. Many other heavenly salutes come off as going through the motions, like the high-five following a free-throw in basketball. While I generally dislike this godly praise, Lima’s reaction will forever be entrenched in my mind.

Unfortunately for baseball fans, especially those who root for the teams he stunk on, Lima’s talent came nowhere near the level of his personality. While “Lima Time” is now officially over it more likely ended six to eight years ago. Still, though, it was never a dull ride. Bbbbbelieve it!