Archive for shelby miller

Shelby Miller just pitched six innings and allowed just two runs on Saturday. For a pitcher who entered that game having given up 22 runs in 23.1 innings — while also recording as many walks as strikeouts and averaging under four innings per appearance — the start was definitely an encouraging one.

However, there are some caveats, as well. For one, it occurred against a terrible Braves offense. And Miller still gave up another home run. And he recorded two walks against just one strikeout. Miller is far from out of the woods at this point. His main problems so far this season have been pitch selection and lack of velocity. The former is easily fixable. The latter could be a source of trouble if he can’t find the lost velocity at some point — or, alternatively, if the lost velocity is the result of some physical problem that has prevented him from maintaining consistent mechanics.

In each of the past two offseasons, Shelby Miller’s teams have decided to move him. Depending on your narrative, that’s maybe a sign that two organizations gave up on a young pitcher. On the other hand, though, the Cardinals’ receipt of Jason Heyward and the Braves’ massive haul a year later both contradict that narrative: both receiving clubs gave up quite a bit for Miller. When the Cardinals gave up Miller, he was coming off a relatively disappointing 2014 season where his 17% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate, 3.74 ERA and 4.54 FIP were all worse than his promising 2013 season. While the season overall was underwhelming, there were reasons for optimism on Miller when the Braves trade for him, and he delivered on that optimism last season.

During the 2014 campaign, the Cardinals made a deadline deal for Justin Masterson, and while Masterson did not pitch well for St. Louis and has yet to recapture his old form, he did teach Miller a two-seamer grip that Miller was able to use the rest of the 2014 season. At the time of Masterson’s arrival, Miller had recorded a 4.14 ERA and 4.81 FIP, with a 16% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate. To that point in the season, Miller was throwing his four-seam fastball 68% of the time along with a two-seam fastball less than 5% of the time. The rest of the season, Miller threw his four-seamer 48% of the time while upping his two-seamer to 22%. The result? An increased strikeout rate, fewer walks, a better, but not great 4.00 FIP, plus a nice 2.95 ERA over his final 10 starts.

Miller carried that two-seamer to Atlanta, throwing it even more last season (34% of the time vs. 33% on the four-seamer). His walk and strikeout rates remained the same as his late-season run in 2014. Halving his home-run rate helped Miller to a 3.45 FIP and 3.02 ERA — and Miller’s best season as a professional. Arizona made Atlanta an offer it couldn’t refuse and Miller headed into the season hoping to continue last year’s success. 

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With the title of this post, I have given myself an admittedly difficult task, given most comments about this trade since it went down. Arizona traded two top-100 prospects, including one player in the top 25 (at least), as well as a proven major league outfielder in exchange for a somewhat inconsistent pitcher, albeit one coming off a three-win season and with three more years of control. For the most part, everybody is beating up on the Diamondbacks — and for good reason: we don’t know the internal valuations the Diamondbacks possess on their own players and players outside their organization, but there is a general consensus that whatever those valuations are, they do not match up the rest of baseball. As a result, they have undersold their assets compared to the rest of the market. If we take out the external valuations of players like Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, and Ender Inciarte, can we make a case that, internally, the decision might have been sound?

What I am trying to get at is this: the trade value on the open market for Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, and Ender Inciarte is much greater than one Shelby Miller, but if you are the Diamondbacks and presented one choice and one choice only, how do we get to a spot where you choose Shelby Miller over Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, and Ender Inciarte?

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The past year has been a mixed bag for Shelby Miller. In these digital pages during 2014, Dave discussed him being broken during April, Eno postulated on whether he was fixed following the regular season, and then he was traded by the Cardinals in November for Jason Heyward. Now, fresh off a two-hit shutout that is the culmination of a fine early season run, he’s sitting on a microscopic ERA (1.33) and WHIP (0.83). Have the Braves really fixed Miller?

Let’s start with a statistic: .183. That’s Miller’s current BABIP. No other qualified starter in the major leagues has a figure under .215. Case closed, right? His FIP is 3.28 largely because of that BABIP, his high LOB%, and low HR/FB rate, and the regression is coming for him. Yes and no: even if we can expect less absurd batted ball numbers moving forward, there are still a few interesting changes Miller has made that warrant a closer look.

Miller’s turnaround from his general malaise in 2013 and 2014 (when his strikeout rate cratered and walk rate rose by almost 60%) started in September of last year, when his overall command improved, helping to reverse the trends in those strikeout and walk rates. He never had bad command in the minors, so perhaps there was always the potential for a return to better times with his ability to limit free passes.

Eno mentioned that he also started locating his fastball a little bit higher, leading to more whiffs, something Miller may or may not have been consciously doing. That, along with his curveball regaining some of its effectiveness, drove a small return to form at the end of last year.

This year, we’re seeing something entirely different out of Miller. His pitch usage has changed, moving directly to his cutter and sinker over his four-seamer. Take a look:
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The two things everyone loves about the off-season are hot-stove rumors and prospect lists. The beginning of Spring Training marks the end of hot-stove season — outside a very lonely Kyle Loshe — and gives us our first glance at the young phenoms we spend the off-season debating. Today, let’s look at teams that have the best one-two pitching punches coming down the prospect pipeline.

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I can honestly say that I fell in love with this system while researching it for the Top 15 list. It is one of the most underrated systems in the game and I am a huge fan of the organization’s 2012 amateur draft. The club has a collection of high ceiling arms and bats as well as some potentially useful high floor players.

#1 Oscar Taveras (OF)

Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: AA
Acquired: 2008 international FA
Projected 2013 level: AAA/MLB

I first stumbled upon Taveras in late 2010 shortly before he became a Top 100 prospect contender for prospect analysts everywhere, and have yet to lose my enthusiasm for his future to this day. He’s been criticized in the past for having a unique approach and non-traditional hitting mechanics but he continues to defy odds because they work for him.

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Prior to playing on the biggest stage in professional baseball almost all ball players must take the long bus rides, live off late-night fast food runs and toil in the near obscurity that can be minor league baseball. For some players on the 2012 playoff clubs those memories are a little fresher than for others. With work well under way on the 2012-13 Top 15 Prospects lists at FanGraphs – due to begin in early November – I thought it might be fun to look back and see what I wrote about those players during the previous three annual prospect reviews. Below are excerpts from what was originally written.

No longer Albert Pujols‘ club, the Cardinals 2012 roster consists of a number of young players developed internally. The organization does an outstanding job of balancing higher-priced veterans with (often complementary) younger contributors. The strong in-house development has been very evident on the pitching staff during the club’s playoff run and post-season success.

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L.J. Hoes, OF/2B, Baltimore Orioles
Current Level: AAA
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 13th
Current Value: Underrated

Hoes doesn’t have the highest ceiling but he could develop into a solid role player. A 2008 third round draft pick out of a Washington high school, the prospect has spent much of 2012 in center field but he can play all three outfield spots and has experience at both second and third base. Hoes, 22, doesn’t have much power at all but he can steal a few bases, takes walks and doesn’t strike out much. He’s split 2012 between double-A and triple-A and is nearly ready to contribute at the big league level.

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The depth within the minor league system is still not where it needs to be for the organization to be considered among the best in baseball. However the club has infused some exciting talent into the mix in recent years. The Cardinals minor league system is definitely one to watch in the years ahead as it boasts some high-ceiling talent and a plethora of hard-throwing relief arms.

1. Shelby Miller, RHP
BORN: Oct. 19, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round, Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

One of the top arms available in the 2009 draft, the hard-throwing Texan can fire his heat up into the mid-to-high 90s and it has excellent movement. Miller’s fastball is so effective that he has to be encouraged to use his secondary pitches, both of which show flashes of brilliance: a curveball and changeup. Although they have potential, Miller needs to command them better. His plus velocity allows him to safely work in the upper half of the strike zone but it would be nice to see the fly-ball pitcher generate a few more ground-ball outs. After splitting 2011 between high-A and double-A, the right-hander should move up to triple-A where he’ll face a stiff challenge by facing an increased number of strong fastball hitters. Miller has the ceiling of a No. 1 starter and he could be pitching in St. Louis by the end of the ’12 season.

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General Manager: John Mozeliak
Farm Director: Mike Girsch
Scouting Director: Jeff Luhnow

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000+)

2009 1st Round: Shelby Miller, RHP, Texas HS
2. Robert Stock, C, Southern California
3. Joe Kelly, RHP, UC Riverside

The Cardinals organization appears to have had a strong draft in ’09, but it will likely be a while before fans reap the benefits, especially in the case of Miller. The right-hander was drafted out of a Texas high school, so he’ll likely need about four years of development time before he’s ready to contribute on the big-league stage. In his debut, Miller made just two starts. In three innings, he allowed five hits and two walks. He also recorded two strikeouts. Miller’s repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 95 mph, as well as a curveball and a change-up. He’s considered a future No. 1 or 2 starter.

Stock has been on the draft radar for quite some time, and he even left high school early to pursue his collegiate career. Many expected Stock to be drafted as a pitcher, but the Cardinals allowed him to pursue his preferred vocation. As a pitcher at the University of Southern California, Stock allowed just 61 hits in 77.2 innings of work and had a strikeout rate of 10.0 K/9. As a hitter, he posted a triple-slash line of just .226/.345/.453 in 137 at-bats and failed to surpass the .300 batting-average mark in all three of his college seasons. Upon turning pro, Stock hit .322/.386/.550 with an ISO of .228 in 149 rookie-league at-bats. He also received a five-game trial in low-A ball. The 20-year-old surpassed all expectations with the bat in pro ball in ’09, but he was a college player playing in rookie ball.

Taken in the third round out of U.C. Riverside, Kelly should be considered an interesting sleeper. The right-hander is a ground-ball machine like a number of other Riverside grads, including Toronto’s Marc Rzepczynski. Kelly had a solid debut in short-season ball by posting a 2.61 FIP and a strikeout rate of 8.90 to go along with his ground-ball rate of 56.4%. He dominated lefties in his debut (.188 average), which is a good sign for a pitcher who relies heavily on his slider. Kelly made two starts in his debut, but he’ll likely end up as a dominating reliever, and quite possibly a closer.

2008 1st Round: Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona State (Traded to OAK)
1S. Lance Lynn, RHP, Mississippi
2. Shane Peterson, OF, Long Beach State (Traded to OAK)
3. Niko Vazquez, SS, Nevada HS

Both Wallace and Peterson were used to acquire veteran Matt Holliday during the ’09 season. It was a high price to pay for what may end up being less than a year’s worth of Holliday. Wallace, 23, could find himself in the Majors in 2010 at either third base, first base or designated hitter. His power output improved after the move to Oakland and he posted an ISO rate of .203. Peterson had a solid season playing for both St. Louis and Oakland, but he may not have enough sock in his bat to play every day.

We’ll talk more in-depth on Lynn tomorrow during the Top 10 list, but he’s been a pleasant (fast-moving) surprise by reaching triple-A in his first full pro season. Vazquez had a terrible offensive season by hitting .197/.295/.250 in low-A ball and .209/.283/.293 in short-season ball. He’s also shown limited power and stole just three bases all year, so his value is tied solely to his ability to hit for average. He’s still just 20 years old, though. Scott Gorgen (4th round) is another pitcher to keep an eye on, and catcher Charles Cutler (14th round) has shown a solid left-handed bat.

2007 1st Round: Peter Kozma, SS, Oklahoma HS
1S. Clayton Mortensen, RHP, Gonzaga (Traded to OAK)
2. David Kopp, RHP, Clemson
2. Jess Todd, RHP, Arkansas
3. Daniel Descalso, 3B, UC Davis
x- Brett Zawacki, RHP, Illinois HS

The Cardinals organization had a number of extra picks in ’07, but the results have been fairly modest, especially with Mortensen flipped to Oakland in the Holliday trade and Todd sent to Cleveland in the Mark DeRosa deal. First rounder Kozma, 21, has already reached double-A, but he hit just .216/.288/.312 and many are now projecting him as a utilty player. He still has promise, but he’s a middle infielder with limited power (.096 ISO) and he hasn’t had much success on the base paths, either.

Descalso, like Kozma, appears on the Top 10 list. Zawacki has yet to justify the above-slot deal he received and made just eight appearances in ’09. Kopp has had OK results, but projects as a reliever in the Majors. Tyler Henley (8th round), Adam Reifer (11th round), and Adron Chambers (38th round) were nice late-round finds. Signing college outfielder Kyle Russell in the fourth round would have made this draft all the better.

2006 1st Round: Adam Ottavino, RHP, Northeastern
1S. Chris Perez, RHP, Miami
2. Brad Furnish, LHP, Texas Christian
2. Jon Jay, OF, Miami
2S. Mark Hamilton, 1B, Tulane
3. Gary Daley, RHP, Cal Poly
x- Tommy Pham, SS, Nevada HS

Ottavino has had an up-and-down career in the organization mainly due to poor control and command; he posted a walk rate of 5.13 BB/9 in ’09 and has seen it increase over the past three seasons, while climbing the organizational ladder. Perez, like Todd, was traded to Cleveland. Jay may wind up as the most valuable pick in this draft. Furnish (6.48 FIP in double-A), Daley (5.99 BB% in low-A), and Pham (.691 OPS in high-A) have all disappointed. Hamilton showed improved power at double-A and triple-A in ’09, but his career has been slowed by injuries.

Late round finds include: Allen Craig (8th round), P.J. Walters (11th round), and Nick Additon (47th round). Luke Gregerson was another great find, but he’s applying his trade in San Diego now after being sent there in the Khalil Greene swap. D’Marcus Ingram (25th round), who has good speed, is someone to keep an eye on.

Tomorrow: The Cardinals Top 10 prospect list