Archive for Tampa Bay Rays

The 2011 Rays opened the season with their designated hitter position filled by a Hall of Very Good platoon: Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez. I don’t need to remind you how many people around here and elsewhere thought the combined pickup was a great idea, and one reason that they came to the Rays so cheap — just $7.25 million combined, just $2 million of which went to Manny — was that their mutual agent Scott Boras negotiated a package deal. Once Manny retired, Johnny Damon picked up nearly all of the slack, winding up with 150 games played — his 16th straight season with at least 140 games played.

But after hearing that the Rays weren’t bringing him back, Damon is right where Manny is: at the back of the breadline. Manny is currently unemployed because he has announced his desire to unretire, as Matt Klaassen wrote Monday. One reason Manny says for his desire to return is that, as he told ESPN, he wants to be a role model:

I want to show people that Manny can change, that he can do the right thing.

Manny will still have to serve a 50-game suspension, and his one-for-17 performance in 2011 won’t inspire much confidence either, so he may have a difficult time convincing another team to take a chance on him. (Much like Barry Bonds in 2008.)
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There is a good chance that Jeremy Hellickson will be named American League Rookie of the Year this afternoon. Whether he deserves the honor is a matter of debate, but there’s no question the 24-year-old hurler got some terrific results. The Rays righty went 13-10 and led AL rookies in starts [29], innings pitched [189] and ERA [2.95].

Hellickson talked about his pitching approach during the regular season’s final month.

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David Laurila: What is the key to being a good pitcher?

Jeremy Hellickson: You have to be able to go out there and repeat your delivery and command all of your pitches. It’s not always an easy thing to do.

A lot of pitching is mental. You need all of the physical tools, but once you’re out there it’s just you and the catcher. A lot of being able to compete in this game comes from how mentally strong you are.

DL: What dictates how you attack a hitter?
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In 2011, the buzz about Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Desmond Jennings seems to have shifted from polarizing, to tantalizing, to polarizing once again. Apparently, I’ve somewhat positioned myself in the center of that argument on Twitter as a mention seems to come my way regarding Jennings after every multi-hit game or hitless performance. Whether gloating, or backing up my assessment of the young outfielder, Jennings the player provides for a great opportunity to discuss the black-and-white nature of scouting and just how finicky prospect followers can be.

Triple-A video of Jennings after the jump.

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Matt Moore is the game’s top pitching prospect and he just dominated a potent lineup, in his second big league start, in a post-season contest. Of course, you already knew that. Given the plethora of articles lauding and analyzing the 22-year-old lefthander, it is likely you know plenty more. With that in mind, what better way to delve even deeper than by discussing the art of pitching with the man himself?

Moore sat down to talk about his overpowering repertoire, and his approach on the mound, when the Rays visited Fenway Park late in the regular season.

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David Laurila: Do you identify yourself as a power pitcher?

Matt Moore: I sit 93 to 95, and I’m a starter, so I guess that fits into the classification of a power pitcher. I throw a hard breaking ball, around 82-84, and my changeup is around the same, about 81-83. I don’t have a mentality of, “Okay, I’m going to blow this by somebody,” but I do like to challenge guys with my best fastball. I have a good fastball — it’s my strength — so I’m going to challenge guys.

DL: Do individual hitters influence what you do on the mound?

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For players and fans alike, it is all a matter of perspective. If your team is beginning post-season action today or tomorrow — or if you’re the Braves or Red Sox — you probably can’t be blamed for looking at these inevitably tense battles as life and death. But they really aren’t. As seriously as we take the game of baseball, that is exactly what it is — a game.

John Jaso understands this. The Rays catcher wants to win as badly as anyone, but he also sees the bigger picture. His team is in the midst of a Cinderella story, but winning or losing the World Series won‘t define him as person, nor change the world. It will simply make a number of people very happy, and others very disappointed. Life will go on.

Jaso shared his thoughts when the Rays — at the time still chasing the Red Sox in the standings — visited Fenway Park earlier this month.

[Editor’s note: The following are Jaso’s words, excerpted from a conversation that took place on September 16.]

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“Winning a championship is very rewarding and something we all strive for. The funnest days of my life [have been] winning a championship. In Double-A it was amazing. In Triple-A it was amazing. And in 2008, being up here with the team and going to the World Series, was unbelievable. Even last year, coming out on top in the American League East — and it came down to the last game of the season, really — was huge. Those were big moments in my life. Read the rest of this entry »

James Shields has had a career year, and at least some of the credit goes to Jim Hickey. The Rays pitching coach has played a hands-on role in the right-hander’s success, which has been fueled, in part, by adjustments to his pitch selection. Hickey sat down to discuss those changes, as well as Shields’ BABiP and complete games, earlier this month.

Rays manager Joe Maddon also weighed in on Shields. His comments follow the interview with Hickey.

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David Laurila: Much of the attention James Shields has received this year has come as a result of his complete games. Are other, equally important, things being overlooked?

Jim Hickey: I’m not sure if they are or not, but he certainly deserves credit for a lot of other things. The complete games are kind of sexy and are calling a lot of attention to him, but he’s been an extremely solid, and productive, Major League starter since the beginning of the 2007 season. He takes the ball every fifth day and he pitches 215-220 innings every year. He gives you a chance to win the ballgame virtually every time out, and that’s really all that we can ask.

I was looking at his stats the other day and what stunned me was that James has allowed 50 fewer hits than innings pitched this year. It is about 170 compared to 220. That’s really something. He’s always been a guy who has allowed hits, and home runs, because he’s always in the strike zone and his stuff isn’t overpowering. I would say that he had 35 more hits than innings pitched last year, or maybe a little bit more, and to have an 80-hit swing is really impressive.

DL: I want to get back to his hits allowed, but first, you just referred to complete games as a “sexy” statistic. Has the game involved to a point where that‘s a fitting description?

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There was something oddly fitting about both a statue of Bud Selig being unveiled and the final set of leaked MLB financial documents becoming public on Tuesday. Selig has said on more than one occasion that we’re witnessing the “Golden Era” of baseball, citing the economic windfall that has come to the league over the last decade. Revenue-sharing, a pride and joy of Selig’s, is at the center of the largest public release of club financial documents – leaked to Deadspin – that include the Pirates, Rays, Mariners, Marlins, Angels, and Rangers (see them all here).

In July of 2000, with the league claiming projected losses of $232 million for the 2001 season, Selig came before Congress with his Blue Ribbon Panel on Baseball Economics report, which at its heart states, “Proper competitive balance will not exist until every well-run club has a regularly recurring reasonable hope of reaching postseason play.” The report then went on to say that, “The limited revenue sharing and payroll tax that were approved as part of MLB’s 1996 Collective Bargaining Agreement with the Major League Baseball Players Association have produced neither the intended moderating of payroll disparities nor improved competitive balance. Some low-revenue clubs, believing the amount of their proceeds from revenue sharing insufficient to enable them to become competitive, used those proceeds to become modestly profitable.”

So, with each Collective Bargaining Agreement since, revenue-sharing has been increased, funneling money from the haves to the have-nots of the league in order to gain competitive balance. In 2009, $433 million in revenue-sharing moved from high-revenue clubs to those in need of assistance.

Along the way, sizable increases in the amount of “central revenue” has found its way into club coffers. The growth of national television money from ESPN, FOX Sports, and TBS which total approx. $660 million a year in rights fees funnel back to each of the 30 clubs. Add in annual dividend checks from MLB Advanced Media of $2 million, revenues from MLB Properties, international broadcast agreements, etc.,  and all clubs, large revenue-making, or not, have found extra money that can be used to help produce a winning product on the diamond.

Still, the field would remain unlevel without revenue-sharing tied to net local revenues, so with the leaked Deadspin docs having three clubs (the Pirates, Marlins, and Rays) that have received considerable amounts via the revenue-sharing system, the documents provide ammunition for clubs such as the Yankees and Red Sox when collective bargaining begins in earnest shortly after the World Series ends.

Parsing the documents, here’s how much revenue-sharing was either received or paid out for a given year:

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It felt like it had been coming forever, but it wasn’t until Saturday that the Tampa Bay Rays finally designated Pat Burrell for assignment. Signed from the the Rays’ 2008 World Series opponent Philadelphia Phillies after that season to a two-year, $16 million dollar contract, the now-ironically nicknamed Pat “The Bat” was supposed to add offensive punch at DH. Needless to say, as R.J. discussed Friday, things haven’t worked out that way, and the American League East-leading Rays seem to be ready to go with a Hank Blalock/Willy Aybar platoon. This has all been covered. But perhaps the failure of the Burrell Era in Tampa Bay can be a little reminder, or lesson, for us.

Just over a year ago many (myself included) were lauding the Rays for their contract with a good hitter whose defensive problems would be rendered irrelevant in the AL as he filled their Cliff Floyd-sized hole at DH. The Phillies did not offer Burrell arbitration, and so the Rays didn’t have to give up draft picks.* A win-win for the Rays. Now that they’ve basically admitted that it didn’t work out, what can we make of them, and, of course, “us” (the community of internet baseball bloggers who have nothing in common)?

* In the wake of the Ryan Howard Contract Brouhaha, Philadelphia’s side of the story, involving Raul Ibanez, lots of money, draft compensation, Ibanez’s career year in 2009, and so on is important, too, but outside the realm of what I want to get at in this particular post. So far, yes, Philadelphia has done well for themselves in the Ibanez-over-Burrell sweepstakes. Still, keep in mind that the Ibanez contract isn’t done yet, his 2010 is a far cry from 2009 at this point, and there’s still his age 39 season left after this one.

First of all, the obvious: if the Rays didn’t think Burrell was going to give them anything better than what they could do with Blalock/Aybar platoon, then they had to dump him. The Rays are winning the East now, but the Yankees are right there, and the Red Sox aren’t completely vanquished yet. Whether the team is a contender like the Rays or on the other end of the win curve, holding on to a washed-up hitter who can’t play the field on the five percent chance that he might “heat up” before the deadline and bring back a C-minus prospect if Tampa Bay eats the whole salary is, well, not a good process. I hope that’s obvious to everyone at this point (ahem). Now, let’s get to “us.”

Let me be clear: this isn’t a Very Special Moment of Critical Self-Reflection. It is simply a little reminder. While it’s clear that the Rays got the short end of the stick on this one, that doesn’t mean it was necessarily the wrong decision at the time. Maybe the Rays’ scouts and statisticians did miss something. ZiPS and CHONE, two well-respected publicly-available projections systems, saw Burrell as a good hitter going into 2009, and I’m guessing the Rays had similar numbers. Sometimes, things just don’t go the way one expects. Projections are not guarantees, they are best estimates of “true talent in context” for as many players as possible. When looking at how they do for large groups, they do well. But the nature of the beast is that they will miss on a number of individuals, too. The Rays front office knows this, and this implicit in the analyses of most sabermetrically-oriented analysts, too, even if it is rarely explicitly stated. Sometimes brevity is more important. If every blogger filled up their “brief notes” with as many qualifications as I do, well… it wouldn’t be good.

This isn’t to say that the Rays front office or their internet admirers are above reproach when they or “we” turn out to be wrong about something. A miss is a miss. The point is that while the tone of some analysts may seem certain, implicit in the good work is the assumption that we are working with “densities of probabilities,” and that inevitably, one will be wrong about (many) things (not me, of course, but everyone else). The goal is to be right more often than wrong. I think it’s safe to say that despite how the Burrell contract worked out, over the last few years, the Rays have accomplished that.

Episode Twenty-Seven
In which the panel records a meltdown.

Headlines
Starlin Castro in the Chicago Sky
Demoted: Alex Gordon
N’doy: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Good
Speaking of Meltdowns
… and other populist declarations!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Matt Klaassen, Study Carrel-er
Bryan Smith, Resident Prospect Maven

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

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The Graduate: Evan Longoria | Born: October 1985 | Third Baseman

Tampa Bay did not graduate many rookies in 2008 while racing towards the organization’s first World Series appearance. The club obviously chose quality over quantity as Evan Longoria snatched up the Rookie of the Year award this week after hitting .272/.343/.531 with 27 home runs in 448 at-bats. Longoria posted rates of 9.3 BB% and 27.2 K%, as well as an ISO of .259. Defensively, he made 12 errors with a .963 fielding percentage and showed solid range at third.

The Riser: Jeremy Hellickson | Born: April 1987 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Jeremy Hellickson is quickly becoming the best pitching prospect in the system – not named David Price. The right-hander was originally drafted in the fourth round of the 2005 draft and moved slowly during his first three pro seasons, peaking at A-ball. He jumped on the fast track in 2008, though. After allowing 64 hits in 76.2 innings with a 2.00 ERA in High-A ball, Hellickson was promoted to Double-A, where he made 13 starts. He allowed 84 hits in 75.1 innings but posted excellent rates of 1.79 BB/9 and 9.44 K/9. His biggest issue at Double-A was the home run – he allowed 15 (1.79 HR/9) and must show better command within the strike zone against the more advanced hitters.

The Tumbler: Chris Mason | Born: July 1984 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Chris Mason is not often mentioned in the same breath as Jacob McGee or Wade Davis despite posting solid numbers – well, until 2008. Mason struggled mightily in 2008 and posted a 6.21 ERA during his first shot at Triple-A. The former second round pick out of UNC-Greensboro allowed 144 hits in 108.2 innings of work. He also posted rates of 3.40 BB/9 and 7.45 K/9. Both those rates are respectable, which gives hope for a significant rebound but Mason’s walk rate did increase by about 1.00 BB/9. He may be better suited to a relief role due to an average fastball in the 87-89 mph range.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Jake Jefferies | Born: October 1987 | Catcher

A solid all-around player, Jake Jefferies was nabbed in the third round of the 2008 draft out of college. He had a solid pro debut with a line of .315/.371/.433 in 238 short-season at-bats. Jefferies also posted encouraging rates of 8.1 BB% and 9.2 K% with an ISO of .118. The catcher is currently a solid contact hitter and is working on learning to drive the ball. A left-handed batter, Jefferies is also a solid-average defensive catcher (although he threw out just four of 23 runners attempting to steal in 2008) and he could end up as a third-round steal.

The ’09 Sleeper: Nick Barnese | Born: January 1989 | Right-Handed Pitcher

There are a lot of talented pitchers in the system and Nick Barnese can sometimes get overlooked after spending the past two seasons in short-season ball. However, the right-hander posted solid numbers in 2008: 52 hits allowed in 66 innings pitched, along with rates of 3.27 BB/9 and 11.45 K/9. He also allowed just one home runs all season and posted a FIP of 1.99. The former third round pick features a low-90s fastball that flirts with 95 mph, as well as a slider and a change-up.

Up Next: The San Diego Padres