Not content with Jeff Keppinger and Carlos Beltran as trade deadline acquisitions, the San Francisco Giants added veteran middle infielder Orlando Cabrera to the mix. In exchange for Cabrera, the Giants sent 23-year-old outfielder Thomas Neal to the Cleveland Indians – who had little use for Cabrera after Jason Kipnis was promoted.
General Manager: Brian Sabean
Farm Director: Fred Stanley
Scouting Director: John Barr
FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)
The system has a couple monster prospects at the top of the list but the middle tier is pretty impressive too. Things drop off a bit after the seventh man on the list but all 10 prospects have a good chance of contributing to a big league team before too long.
1. Buster Posey, C, Majors
DOB: March 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Florida State University
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
If all goes as expected, Posey’s minor-league stay was a short one. The catcher really has little left to prove in the minors after just one full season. The former college star hit .326/.428/.540 in 291 high-A at-bats in ’09 before skipping double-A and moving up to triple-A where he hit .321/.391/.511 in another 131 at-bats. Posey also received 17 big league at-bats at the end of the year. His hope of playing everyday in 2010 as the Giants’ primary catcher was dealt a blow this past off-season when the club re-signed veteran backstop Bengie Molina, but there is talk that he’ll see playing time all over the diamond, thanks to his solid athleticism. I’ve said it before, but count me down as someone who doesn’t like the idea. As a college convert to the position, Posey needs experience behind the dish to help iron out his receiving- and game-calling skills; his throwing was solid in ’09 (46% caught stealing).
2. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Majors
DOB: August 1989 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2007 1st round – North Carolina HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up
In two seasons, Bumgarner has yet to post an ERA above 1.93. His FIP, though, has not been quite as sterling, and it’s actually risen with each promotion: from 1.71 to 2.05 to 3.56 to 4.60 in a brief MLB trial in ’09. The lefty has lost some velocity from his prep days, but it hasn’t bothered him much in pro ball. He held his own in double-A last season by allowing just 80 hits in 107.0 innings of work. His walk rate of 2.52 was solid but his strikeout rate of 5.80 K/9 was low and he’s a borderline fly-ball pitcher. The lefty has a good shot at the No. 5 job in the Giants rotation in 2010 with his biggest competition being Todd Wellemeyer. At the age of just 20, Bumgarner is probably not ready to be an impact pitcher at the MLB level just yet. However, don’t be too concerned about the lesser velocity unless it keeps leaking; it’s possible that he’s sacrificing miles per hour for movement and/or control.
3. Thomas Neal, OF, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 36th round – Riverside Community College
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Neal just keeps getting better. In fairness, his ’09 numbers may have been helped by a good hitting environment. Even so, the 22-year-old outfielder hit .337/.431/.579 in 475 at-bats. His ISO rate jumped from .168 in low-A in ’08 to .242 in high-A in ’09. Neal has also shown solid patience at the plate over the past three seasons, topping out at 11.6 BB% this past year. He did a nice job of trimming his strikeout rate by 4% over ’08’s 24.1%. It will be hard for Neal to improve upon his .444 wOBA from ’09 but he has the talent to be a star corner outfielder for the Giants. Defensively, his range is better suited for left field but he has the arm strength to play right field without embarrassing himself.
4. Dan Runzler, LHP, Majors
DOB: March 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 9th round – UC Riverside
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, curveball
A former ninth-round (under the radar) pick, Runzler has found a lot of success as of late thanks to his solid fastball – especially for a lefty – and his outstanding ground-ball rates. Playing at four minor league levels in ’09, the southpaw produced an eye-popping 64.7% ground-ball rate, as well as an incredibly-low 5% line-drive rate. After all that traveling in the minors, Runzler was rewarded with a trip to the Majors where he posted a 1.04 ERA (but 4.14 FIP) in 8.2 big league innings. He struck out 11 batters but showed that he still has some work to do with his control by walking five batters. The former UC Riverside hurler has gone from little-known middle reliever to a potential MLB closer down the road.
5. Roger Kieschnick, OF, High-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Texas Tech University
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
After not getting into game action in ’08, Kieschnick made up for lost time with a solid pro debut in high-A ball. He hit .296/.345/.532 and showed the plus power that he was known for in college (.236 ISO). The outfielder did have some troubling plate rates, though, with a low walk rate of 6.4% and a high strikeout rate of 25.1%. On the plus side, he has little pro experience so he has room (and time) to improve. The left-handed hitter did a nice job of handling southpaws by posting a .933 OPS on the heels of a .400 BABIP. His OPS against right-handers was .832. Kieschnick is a hustler on the base paths and in the field despite average speed. He also has the arm strength for right field.
6. Brandon Crawford, SS, Double-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – UCLA
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Crawford is an interesting prospect because people either love him (and see him as a regular big league contributor) or they hate him (and see him as a big league utility player at best). Not really known for his bat in college, Crawford had a lot of success in the lower minors and hit .371/.445/.600 in 105 high-A at-bats to being the ’09 season. The shortstop had a more difficult time in double-A, though, and hit .258/.294/.365 in 392 at-bats in a much more difficult league to hit in than the high-A California League. At the heart of Crawford’s problems at the dish are his plate rates. His walk rate dipped to 4.7% in double-A and his strikeout rate was 25.5% (while his power dipped from .229 to .107 after his promotion). Crawford may not hit for a high average in the Majors, but he could slug 15-20 homers and play above-average defense. At worst, I see him developing into former Blue Jay and Cub Alex Gonzalez.
7. Ehire Adrianza, SS, Low-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
A gifted fielder, Adrianza can take his time developing his raw skills thanks to the presence of Crawford ahead of him. The slick Venezuelan showed some improvements at the plate in ’09 at low-A ball by hitting .258/.333/.327 in 388 at-bats. He clearly does not have much power right now (.070 ISO) and he also does not steal many bases (seven successes in eight tries) so Adrianza is currently a singles-hitter. As such, he currently projects as a possible Gold Glove infielder who will hit eighth in a National League lineup. He clearly tired late in ’09 and hit below .220 in August and September.
8. Clayton Tanner, LHP, High-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 3rd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 86-89 mph fastball, slider, change-up
Tanner isn’t flashy and he doesn’t have a great fastball, but the southpaw has been very successful in the minors. He posted a career-high 4.15 FIP in ’09 but he was pitching in the hitter-friendly California League (for the second straight year). Tanner showed improvements by reducing his hits allowed (132 in 139.1 IP) and he improved his strikeout rate to 7.82 K/9 while also showing solid control (2.71 BB/9). He was, though, hurt by the long-ball with a HR/9 rate of 1.16. With his narrow margin for error, it would be nice to see him improve upon his 46.5% ground-ball rate. He certainly performs better again left-handed hitters (0.96 vs 1.28 WHIP) so he should have a career in the bullpen at the very least.
9. Francisco Peguero, OF, Low-A
DOB: June 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
First the good: Peguero, 21, has hit like a mad man in North America, including a .340 average in low-A in ’09. Now the bad news: His walk rate was 2.0 BB% and his BABIP was .396. Moving back to positives, the outfielder also stole 22 bases in 27 tries in ’09. A solid defensive outfielder, Peguero is goes all out in the field and at the plate, which helps to explain his low walk rate. His arm strength is also off the charts. Along with his over-aggressive approach, Peguero needs to learn to drive the ball more consistently.
10. Waldis Joaquin, RHP, Majors
DOB: December 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 91-95 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up
The 10th man was a difficult decision and I went with a good arm, but one that projects as a reliever. Joaquin has been kicking around the system for more than seven seasons but he’s still just 23 years old. The right-hander still struggles with his control but he did a nice job of missing bats in both triple-A and the Majors in ’09. He also did not give up a homer last year until he reached the big leagues (zero in 64.0 innings), in part due to solid ground-ball rates (50% in ’09). The fastball-slider pitcher averaged 96 mph with his heater in the Majors. Despite relying on the slider and showing questionable control against them (5.86 BB/9), Joaquin dominated left-handed batters by holding them to a .140 batting average.
Up Next: The Texas Rangers
This week we’re taking a look at some of the leader boards in double-A and high-A ball. Today, we’ll take a look at the leaders in Isolated Power (ISO) and wOBA (For an explanation on this stat, check out HERE) among the three high-A leagues: the California League, the Carolina League and the Florida State League. I want to add a caution with this league, though. The California League, is an extreme hitter’s league, so many of the numbers are inflated. The Carolina League is also an above-average hitter’s league, although not as potent as the Cal League. The Florida State League is widely considered a pitcher’s league, so the offensive numbers will not be as gaudy.
.366- Jonathan Gaston | OF | Houston
Gaston has absolutely exploded this season, thanks in part to the launching pad that is Lancaster (and the league in general). The strikeout rate is worrisome (28.2 K%) but the left-handed hitter is also walking at a respectable rate (12.3 BB%). Gaston, 22, has an intriguing mix of power (27 HR) and speed (12 SB, 13 3B). He was barely a blip on the radar entering the 2009 season.
.300- Joseph Dunigan | 1B/OF | Seattle
If you need proof of the power of the California League, look no further than Dunigan. He had a batting average of .231 in short-season ball in 2007, and .240 in low-A ball last year. This season the 23-year-old is hitting .303 and has hit more homers (22) than he did in his first two seasons combined (18) and in half the at-bats. On the plus side, his walk rate has improved, while the strikeout rate dropped from 32.5 in 2008 to 27.8 K% this season.
.279- Alex Liddi | 3b | Seattle
Liddi could not even hit .250 in his past two full seasons in low-A ball. A move to high-A ball, though, has seen his average jump from .244 to .352 (a difference of .108). His ISO also increased from .116 to .279. A raw player when he signed, Liddi is still only 20 years old, so some of his improvement is probably for real, but he’s not THIS good. Double-A will be a real test for him, especially with a walk rate of 7.8 BB%.
.459- Thomas Neal | OF | San Francisco
Along with Gaston, Neal is one of the biggest legitimate breakout candidates in the California League. The 21-year-old outfielder spent the 2008 season rounding back into shape after missing almost all of 2007 with a shoulder injury. His power and batting average have certainly received a boost from the league, but Neal has good plate discipline for his age (10.3 BB%, 19.6 K%) and he had good power numbers in the South Atlantic League last season.
.456- Jonathan Gaston | OF | Houston
See above.
.442- Logan Forsythe | 3B | San Diego
James Darnell has received a lot of attention for his strong offensive season. However, Forsythe was drafted in the same year and has had a very nice offensive season as well – and one level higher than Darnell. After a strong first half in the Cal League, Forsythe, 22, was promoted to double-A (thus making room for Darnell in Lake Elsinore’s lineup) and he’s continued to hit above .300 with a .160 ISO and a .400 wOBA in 22 games.
.284- Cody Johnson | 1B/OF | Atlanta
Baseball players don’t come much stronger than Johnson, but the 20-year-old has significant holes in his swing. As a result, despite massive power numbers, career strikeout rate of 37% is a huge red flag for this future quad-A slugger.
.239- Pedro Alvarez | 3B | Pittsburgh
Alvarez has received a lot of attention for his low batting average, high strikeout totals and lack of conditioning, but despite everything that’s gone wrong with his season, he’s still hitting for impressive power. The 22-year-old former first-round pick received a surprise promotion to double-A recently and he is currently hitting .280 in 22 games. His power has also remained strong, although his walk rate of 5.7% and his strikeout of 34.1% suggest his numbers are set to nosedive.
.232- Brandon Waring | 3B | Baltimore
Obtained last season (along with Justin Turner) from Cincinnati in the Ramon Hernandez trade, Waring is a power-hitting third baseman who will likely struggle to hit for average in the Majors (and possibly triple-A). He’s actually done a nice job to trim his strikeout rate from an average of 33% in his first two seasons to 25.6% in 2009 at high-A ball.
.423- Kris Watts | C | Pittsburgh
Wow, a catcher with a wOBA of .423! But don’t get too excited. Watts is playing in high-A ball at the age of 25, and it’s his second straight season at the level. You also have to like his BB/K rate of 1.55.
.396- Cody Johnson | 1B/OF | Atlanta
See above.
.388- Lonnie Chisenhall | 3B | Cleveland
Chisenhall got off to a scorching start in April and May before fizzling in June (although his power remained consistent). He’s begun picking things up again and he’s still having a well-above-average offensive season, despite the off month. A little more patience at the plate (8.8 K%) could help him take his game to the next level.
.218- Dominic Brown | OF | Philadelphia
One of the names that might get dangled in a potential Roy Halladay trade, Brown is a dynamic young outfielder whose season was slowed by an injury. Despite that, he is showing increased (and somewhat unexpected) power potential in a league where it’s tough to hit for power. Brown also has the ability to steal 30 bases and play above-average defense.
.199- Chris Parmelee | OF/1B | Minnesota
A former first-round pick, Parmelee has moved slowly and quietly through the Minnesota organization. The left-handed hitter is already four years into his pro career, but he’s still just 21 years old. After struggling to hit above .240 in the past two seasons, Parmelee is up to .261 in 2009 while showing good power – and he’s trimmed his strikeout rate by 10% to 25.4%.
.198- Ike Davis | OF/1B | New York NL
Davis got off to a brutal start to his pro career in 2008 after being a first round draft pick. Last season he hit zero homers in 215 short-season at-bats and had an ISO of just .070. This season, though, he’s hit seven homers in high-A and another five since his promotion to double-A (27 games). It remains to be seen how well he’ll hit for average.
.410- Dominic Brown | OF | Philadelphia
See above.
.404- Darin Mastroianni | OF/2B | Toronto
Mastroianni had a terrible first full season in low-A in 2008 as he struggled to receive playing time behind some of the Jays’ top high school draft picks from the 2007 draft. He even moved to centerfield at one point, from his natural second base position. The speedster has blossomed this season and looks like a potential big-league utility player in the Ryan Freel mold. Mastroianni stole 32 bases in 39 attempts, before moving up to double-A, where he’s nabbed 13 bags in 14 tries.
.390- Cody Cipriano | 2B | Tampa Bay
Cipriano’s career has actually paralleled Mastroianni’s almost eerily. However, the Rays prospect doesn’t have the Toronto farmhand’s speed. Cipriano does, though, have a little more strength, although it’s gap power so he looks like a future utility player.