Archive for Tommy Hanson

Through the whole course of baseball history, several thousand players have managed to bat at least 200 times. An enterprising position player might reach that mark in less than two months. Given that minimum, nobody’s been a better hitter, relative to the rest of the league, than Babe Ruth, who had a career wRC+ of 197. All right, not learning a whole lot so far. Given that minimum, nobody’s been a worse hitter than one Don Carman. The long-time Phillie batted 239 times and recorded a dozen hits, racking up a wRC+ of -79. After Carman, there’s Ron Herbel, at -73. And after Herbel, there’s Tommy Hanson, at -70. Keep in mind that these are large negative numbers and wRC+ has a plus sign built right into the name. By this measure, current Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Tommy Hanson has been the third-worst hitter in baseball history.

Thursday night, facing Barry Zito in San Francisco, was another normal game at the plate for Hanson. He batted twice. The first time, he grounded back to the mound with two runners in scoring position. The second time, he struck out swinging at a curveball. There wasn’t a third time, because Hanson also pitched poorly, and while the Braves surely would’ve preferred that Hanson pitch better, at least he spared them a third time watching him hit.

Hanson has now batted 47 times this season. That’s roughly a quarter of his career total. There are no signs that his offense is getting better. To his name this season, Hanson has a -78 wRC+ and one hit. What follows is the story of that one hit.

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It takes a little luck to be a real-life All-Star, or to win yourself some individual hardware. Both Cy Young winners outperformed their FIPs by a nice clip last season. Felix Hernandez (2.27 ERA, 3.04 FIP) and Roy Halladay (2.44 ERA, 3.01 FIP) also did this despite owning career ERAs and FIPs that were much closer together. Fantasy baseball sleeper lists are rife with those that underperformed their FIPs – Francisco Liriano (3.62 ERA, 2.66 FIP) and Yovani Gallardo (3.84 ERA, 3.02 FIP) might feature prominently.

But what about the players that suffered through a season of incredibly neutral luck? Should we not celebrate them somehow? They somehow managed to flip a coin a hundred times and get fifty tails. That seems worth… something.

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After being shut down by Tim Lincecum in game one, the Braves get to hit the reset button in game two.

The Hitting
Even though Lincecum pitched well last night, a good chunk of his success stemmed from the Braves’ offensive ineptitude. Timmy was leaving fastballs up in the zone, and the Braves didn’t end up doing much with them. Making matters worse, most of Lincecum’s strikeouts were on balls out of the zone, so the Braves’ hitters need to do a much better job of controlling the dish and keep the flailing to a minimum.

Atlanta should have an easier go of things tonight, as Matt Cain doesn’t have nearly the same swing-and-miss stuff as Lincecum. The Braves are going to need to try to take advantage of Cain’s fly ball tendencies, and try to stroke shots into the gaps as much as possible.

The Starter
After being nailed in the eye during batting practice yesterday, Tommy Hanson is good to go against the Braves this evening. Hanson put up very similar numbers to Matt Cain this year, so I’m expecting a fair fight on the mound.

Hanson was a highly-touted prospect just a year ago, but hasn’t done anything spectacular in the bigs. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been worth 4.3 WAR this year, but his numbers are far from superstar status.

One of Hanson’s biggest problems this year has been finding a consistent release point, and a simple glance at a pitch f/x chart will show how erratic he has been. If there is any good news to be taken from his release point, it should be noted that he is not necessarily tipping his pitches, as he’s had trouble with all of his offerings.

As far as his actual pitches go, Hanson relies on a hard four-seam fastball, which should be clocking in around 93 mph tonight. He also has a slider with good movement that he can throw for strikes, along with a slower, looping curveball. None of his pitches get a whole lot of whiffs, so the Giants may be able to keep the strikeouts to a minimum this evening.

The Defense
According to UZR, the Braves defense has been one of the worst in the league, coming in at 34 runs below average. Hanson gives up fly balls and grounders at the same rate, but he should try to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible tonight, thanks to an outfield defense that is often, shall we say, lacking? If the Braves play Rick Ankiel over Nate McLouth tonight, the defense doesn’t look so bad, otherwise it could be a death sentence if the Giants can pound balls towards center.

Prediction
Accuscore has the Braves losing by a full run in their simulations, and I tend to agree. I see Cain shutting down Atlanta, with the Giants taking a two game lead thanks to a 3-2 victory.

The Favorites:
1. Randy Wells, RHP, Chicago
Wells is ninth in the league in lowest BB/9 at 2.09 BB/9 and second amongst rookies behind Josh Geer. Wells is also 20th in K/BB at 2.72, although he’s eight spots below Zimmermann. The Chicago righty is comfortably in the lead amongst rookies and 16th overall in lowest HR/9 at 0.75. Wells has the 17th lowest FIP in the NL at 3.72, while Happ is at 34th (with an ERA/FIP difference of -1.32).

2. J.A. Happ, LHP, Philadelphia
Happ is tops amongst (healthy) rookies in K/9 at 6.52 (minimum 90 IPs), but that is good for just 35th in the NL. Zimmermann (on his way to Tommy John surgery) was tops amongst rookies and ninth overall at 9.07 K/9. Happ is 10th in the league in lowest-average-allowed at .233, 12 spots ahead of Wells and 13 spots ahead of Kawakami. Happ is 10th in the NL in WHIP, followed directly by Wells in the 11th hole. Happ also has the fourth lowest BABIP allowed at .262 (Wells is at 15th).

3. Dexter Fowler, CF, Colorado
Fowler is 21st in the league with a BB% rate at 13.6 (minimum 200 plate appearances), 10 spots ahead of Ryan Hanigan (who also has the 12th lowest K% at 10.9%, and the fifth best BB/K). Fowler has the seventh highest BABIP in the NL at .365, while rookies Chris Dickerson and Parra come in next at 16th and 17th, respectively. Fowler has 10 stolen bases more than any other rookie with 26 total. He performs terribly in center field according to UZR, and is rated last in the league in that category.

4. Andrew McCutchen, CH, Pittsburgh
McCutchen is second in rookies in OPS at .834. He’s also second in slugging and third in batting average. He doesn’t stand out in any one offensive category right now, but he has good all-around numbers. McCutchen has shown the best range in center field amongst the rookies, although he has not fared well in UZR. Colby Rasmus leads rookie center fielders in that category by a wide margin.

5. Casey McGehee, UTL, Milwaukee
McGehee has the slight edge on batting average over Parra, but he also has about 100 fewer plate appearances. None of the rookies are amongst the leaders in average in the National League. McGehee is the only rookie with an ISO above .200 at .203. good for 32nd in the league. He is also first in rookies with an OPS of .864. Defensively, he’s been average-at-best at second base and quite below-average at third base.

Watch Out For:
Tommy Hanson, RHP, Atlanta
Hanson is hurt by his lack of innings, but he could make a run at the top spot with a solid month of September.

Kenshin Kawakami, RHP, Atlanta
This Japanese veteran is reliable and plugs along, but he doesn’t really deserve consideration for the award given his professional experience.

Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Washington
If not for his injury, Zimmermann would be a favorite for the award given how well he’s pitched, based on numerous categories.

Chris Coghlan, LF, Florida
Like McCutchen, Coghlan has solid overall numbers, but does not stand out in any one area. Defensively, he has not performed well according to UZR.

Gerardo Parra, CF, Arizona
Parra leads rookies with eight triples, but has stolen just five bases in 10 attempts. His defensive play has been pretty average.

It wasn’t long ago that the Atlanta Braves organization had the best pitching in baseball, with a staff that included John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux, among other talent hurlers. The starting rotation, to a degree, has fallen into disarray in recent seasons.

But help is on the way.

Right-hander Tommy Hanson was drafted in the 22nd round of the 2005 draft out of Riverside Community College. He signed as a draft-and-follow (a now extinct process) prior to the 2006 season and made his pro debut that same year in a Rookie Ball league. He then spent 2007 split between two A-ball affiliates.

Hanson entered 2008 in the rotation for the High-A Myrtle Beach Pelicans. He allowed just 15 hits in 40 innings, over seven starts. He walked 11 batters (2.48 BB/9) and fanned 49 (11.03 K/9). Atlanta then promoted the talented hurler to face more challenging situations in Double-A. He allowed 70 hits in 98 innings. Hanson’s control wavered a bit and he posted rates of 3.77, with 10.47 strikeouts per nine innings. One obvious downside to his 2008 numbers was the fact that he was an extreme flyball pitcher and had just a 32 GB% during his first stop of the season and 41 GB% in Double-A.

Although he was not quite as dominating in Double-A overall, Hanson showed he was on the cusp of helping the big league club. Sensing that, the organization sent Hanson to get some extra work in the Arizona Fall League – which pits some of the best prospects in baseball against one another for more than a month. Players also receive extra instruction and drills to help further develop their skills. Hanson decided to make his fellow prospects look foolish.

In seven starts, he allowed 10 hits in 28.2 innings. Hanson struck out 49 batters and allowed just seven free passes. He was also lit up for just one home run. Right-handed batters hit .090 against him, while lefties managed just a .143 average. With runners in scoring position, Hanson held batters to a .067 average and struck out 11 of the 18 batters he faced.

The Atlanta Braves’ 2009 starting rotation currently features only two pitchers guaranteed of roles: Jair Jurrjens and Jorge Campillo. As a result, Hanson has a legitimate shot at breaking camp with the club in April, although a little more development time in Triple-A certainly would not hurt. Either way, as long as he stays healthy, Hanson should make his Major League debut in 2009.