Archive for Ubaldo Jimenez

Heading into this season, not unlike most seasons over the past few years, not much was expected out of the Baltimore Orioles from the statistics-based community at FanGraphs. Despite winning at least 85 games in each of the past three seasons with two playoff berths and the division title in 2014, just seven of the 38 FanGraphs writers surveyed before the season expected the Orioles to make the playoffs. The projections pegged the Orioles for 79 wins and gave them just a 16% chance of making the playoffs. The offense figured to be led by Adam Jones, Chris Davis, and emerging star Manny Machado providing great production at the plate and in the field, but the pitching had some question marks with no starter projected to record an ERA or FIP below four. While Jones, Davis, and Machado pacing the offense, there are still questions about the pitching staff, but Ubaldo Jimenez has returned from a terrible 2014 to provide stability for an Orioles team once again in first place in the American League East.

Jimenez was once one of the best pitchers in major-league baseball. From 2008 to 2010 with the Colorado Rockies, Jimenez accumulated 15.3 WAR, ninth in MLB just behind Felix Hernandez and right ahead of Jon Lester, Adam Wainwright, and Jered Weaver. Inconsistency plagued Jimenez over the next three seasons with the Cleveland Indians, but a great second half in 2013 — when he posted a 1.82 ERA, 2.17 FIP and 3.0 WAR — earned him a four-year deal with the Orioles worth $50 million.

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Ubaldo Jimenez was once a terrific young starting pitcher for the Colorado Rockies. He had tremendous raw talent and pitching acumen to boot. If harnessed, he figured to miss bats, keep the ball on the ground and limit walks while remaining on the effectively wild side. He could dial it up to 96 mph — average fastball velocity of 95.8 mph in 2007 — and threw a top-notch, looping curveball that was tough to pick up with his herky-jerky windup. He was, potentially, the prototypical pitcher capable of succeeding at Coors Field.

After posting WAR totals of 4.3, 5.9 and 6.4 from 2008-10, he took a step back last season. His strikeout, walk and groundball numbers were very similar to the prior three years, but he served up more home runs and was less effective at stranding runners. Last season was a case of strong ERA estimators that belied better performance than his actual earned run average. As such, he seemed like a prime regression candidate this season. Through 28 starts and 161.1 innings this year, however, Jimenez has just 0.4 WAR. After averaging 5.5 WAR from 2008-10, Jimenez isn’t currently on pace to finish with even one win above replacement over a full season.

While last season’s relative struggles — he had been so effective that 3.5 WAR represented a down year — at least gave hope to improved performance, everything has gone wrong this season. Jimenez has regressed, but not in the direction his 2011 peripherals portended. Instead, he is set to finish this season with the worst numbers of his career across the board. He quickly went from one of the best to one of the worst, and it doesn’t seem that the major causes are easily fixable.

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Coming off a six-win season in 2010, right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez disappointed on the mound last year, splitting time between the Colorado Rockies and Cleveland Indians. His velocity dropped significantly. The dominating stuff that made him a Cy Young candidate seemingly disappeared. He became rather ordinary and frustrating for two separate fan bases. It all resulted in a below-average 4.68 ERA.

Hope for improvement existed for 2012, however. His 3.67 FIP suggested Jimenez pitched much better than his earned run average indicated — largely due to the fact that his BABIP and LOB% were both worse than his career averages — and his 88 FIP- indicated that he ranked better than league average on the mound.

Fast forward to 2012, and we clearly see that the potential improvement for Ubaldo Jimenez simply has not come to fruition. In fact, the 28-year-old continues to deteriorate on the mound. His stuff is declining precipitously, and his peripheral numbers are trending in the wrong direction.

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The Rockies and Indians finalized a deal Saturday night that sent ace Ubaldo Jimenez to Cleveland in exchange for prospects Alex White, Joe Gardner, Matt McBride and Drew Pomeranz. The rumors swirling around Jimenez were strange from the start, since a team in the Rockies position usually looks to acquire pitchers of that ilk rather than deal them away. However, after learning of the exact return package and assessing the state of the Rockies organization, dealing away Jimenez made more sense than it originally seemed, and might benefit the team more over the next few years.

In Jimenez, the Rockies had a very valuable trade chip if he was ever to be made available. He tallied about 4.5 WAR in 2008, and then sat right around 6 WAR in both 2009 and 2010. Cost-controlled pitchers with that type of resume just aren’t generally made available, since those are the pitchers teams try to build around, not without. Jimenez is currently signed to a four-year, $10 million deal that expires in 2012, with club options for $3.75 million in 2013 and $8 million the very next season. By virtue of his contract, however, he can void the 2014 option if traded.

In spite of the cost control, if a great deal of the budget is already committed and the top prospects within the system — who were going to be relied upon to contribute in the major league rotation before 2013-14 — weren’t developing up to expectations, then there isn’t a whole lot to actually build with. By trading away Jimenez, the Rockies basically admitted one of two things, if not both:

1) They were bearish on Jimenez’ ability to ever reach that 5+ WAR area again
2) They have soured on farmhands like Christian Friedrich and Tyler Matzek, who haven’t developed the way the organization envisioned

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It’s too early to worry. It’s only one outing, right? Right?

But when three of baseball’s premier strikeout pitchers combine for just one punchout in games on Friday, well, it’s interesting. And exceptionally rare–especially for these guys.

Entering 2011, Jon Lester had made 123 starts in his career, with his only K-less appearance coming on April 9, 2008. In that game he lasted 5 1/3 frames, allowing four hits and four runs to go along with four walks. Brett Myers had made 216 career starts and never left a game sans strikeout while lasting at least five frames. Ubaldo Jimenez had started 116 games, whiffing one or fewer batters in at least five innings on just two occasions: September 20, 2007 (6 1/3 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 1 K), and May 21, 2008 (7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 K).

On Friday, neither Lester nor Myers recorded a strikeout, and Jimenez fanned only one batter. In fact, Myers recorded only one missed swing. In a total of 18 1/3 innings, this trio managed fewer strikeouts than Ryan Madson did in his one inning of work.

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The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Colorado Rockies by the score of 5-4 on Monday night to take the best-of-five National League Division Series (NLDS) in four games. It was certainly an exciting end to the series with Colorado storming back to take the lead by the score of 4-2 in the eighth inning, with a three-run explosion. Unfortunately, yet another veteran closer blew up as Huston Street gave up three runs to the Phillies in the ninth inning.

Both starters were solid: Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez went 7.0 innings and posted a WPA of .133. Philly’s Cliff Lee went 7.1 innings and posted a WPA of .276. Offensively, Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard led the way for Philadelphia. Werth drove in two runs, plated once and posted a WPA of .397. Howard, again, made the most of one hit in the game – a double – and he drove in two runs and scored once. His WPA was .320.

Offensive MVP: Ryan Howard
Howard led the team with six RBI in the NLDS, and he also scored three runs. He heated up throughout the series, posting WPAs each game of .007, .115, .208, and .320.

Pitching MVP: Cliff Lee
Lee pitched a total of 16.1 innings out of a possible 18.0 frames, saving the bullpen and giving the team a great opportunity to win both games, which it did. He posted WPAs of .397 and .276.

Honorable Mentions:
Colorado’s most consistent hitter, despite the overall losing effort in the series, was young outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. In 17 at-bats, he hit .588/.632/.882 with 10 hits in four games. He also stole two bases, walked twice and struck out just once. Gonzalez had at least two hits in each game.

Veteran catcher Yorvit Torrealba had a big impact on the series as well, posting WPAs of .021, .213, -.132 and .321. He also played solid defense and did a nice job with his game calling. Torrealba led Rockies hitters with five RBI in the series and was second to Gonzalez in total bases with 10.

It’s now onto Los Angeles, where Philadelphia will face the Dodgers on Thursday night. The starters have not been announced yet, but lefty Cole Hamels is expected to get the ball in Game One of the National League Championship Series (NLCS). The two teams faced off in the 2008 NLCS, as well, with Philly coming out on top and eventually winning the World Series.

I think it’s safe to say that the Game 3 of the National League Division Series (NLDS) between Philadelphia and Colorado was not a pretty one… and it was a little painful to watch for those of us who hate the cold. Neither starter – Jason Hammel for Colorado and J.A. Happ for Philly – made it into the fifth inning. The Rockies pitchers appeared to have problems with the cold and issued eight walks in the game. Philly starters gave up four free passes, including two in one inning of work by Brad Lidge. He shut the door in the ninth inning, but Lidge kept fans – on both sides – on the edge of their seats through the entire ordeal.

With a WPA of .430, young outfielder Carlos Gonzalez attempted to win the game all by his lonesome. He has looked extremely impressive in this series, finally living up to the lofty reputation as a top prospect. On Philly’s side, second baseman Chase Utley had a solid game with a WPA of .274. He had three hits, including a solo homer. Utley also scored two runs. Although he had just one hit in four at-bats, first baseman Ryan Howard posted a WPA of .208 and drove in two runs. The bullpen took a potential hit when left-handed reliever Scott Eyre had to leave the game with a twisted ankle.

It’s going to be another cold night on Monday evening as the Rockies host Game 4 of the NLDS. It will be a good pitching matchup with Ubaldo Jimenez going for the home side, and Cliff Lee taking the ball for Philly. Lee dominated Colorado in the first game of the series and pitched a complete game. That, of course, was in a more favorable pitching environment and with the home-field advantage.

The bullpens were used pretty heavily by both clubs last night: Colorado used six relievers, Philadelphia used five relievers. Eyre is likely unavailable for Philly. The Phillies still have Pedro Martinez in the ‘pen, who has yet to throw a pitch in the series.

A couple quick observations from the other series this past week:
1. I have never seen a veteran closer look as nervous facing a lineup as Joe Nathan appeared on Friday. Horrible results followed his arrival on the mound. I couldn’t believe it when manager Ron Gardenhire brought Nathan out again on Sunday after watching him in the previous matchup. I knew the series was over when Nathan walked in.

2. Watching Scott Kazmir in the third inning of the Angels-Red Sox game on Sunday was an eye opener. I can see why he’s struggled at times this year. With runners on second base – first Jacoby Ellsbury and then Dustin Pedroia – Kazmir’s grips on the ball were clearly visible in his glove; I was able to call every pitch without having to try and decipher the catcher’s signal. Not surprisingly, both Pedroia and Victor Martinez swung like they knew exactly what type of pitch was coming.

With the All-Star rosters unveiled, Charlie Manuel showed that you can be a championship-winning manager and have no more intelligence than your average fan when it comes to putting together an All-Star team. Picking Jason Marquis over Ubaldo Jimenez vividly illustrates that point that Manuel is still living in the dark ages.

Ubaldo Jimenez is what the All-Star game should be about — showcasing the brightest and the best talent in the major leagues. For starters, he throws consistently harder than any major league starting pitcher, averaging 95.6 MPH on his fastball. Obviously, putting together an All-Star pitching staff should not based upon finding the pitchers who throw the hardest, but it doesn’t hurt that Jimenez is also really, really good. His fielding-independent ERA (FIP) is 3.33, 7th among NL starting pitchers, and his wins above replacement total is 2.9, good for 5th best. To to sum up: Jimenez is young, he has electric stuff and is pretty stinkin’ good at pitching.

Jason Marquis on the other hand is leading the NL in the preeminent Wins category, with 10 to his credit. What Manuel seems to have forgotten is that Jason Marquis is the definition of a back-end starting pitcher (with a career FIP of 4.88). He forgot that Marquis has an average repertoire and is striking out just 4.2 batters per nine innings. He overlooked the fact Marquis is getting lots of run support, at 7 per game. Marquis does have a near-identical ERA as Jimenez (3.87), but he is exactly the type of pitcher you expect burn up as he hurtles quickly back to earth. His rest-of-season ZiPS projection calls for a 4.73 FIP. All Manuel saw was 10 Wins.

I don’t expect an old school manager to care about rest of season ZiPS, FIP or WAR, but I would think they would know the difference between an ace and a back-end starter having a fluky first-half of a season. And who wouldn’t want Ubaldo Jimenez coming out of their bullpen, pumping in 100 MPH fastballs? Few fans get the privilege of seeing Jimenez pitch with him tucked away in Colorado, and unfortunately they’re not going to get the chance to see him shine on one of baseball’s biggest stages.