Archive for Vladimir Guerrero

Whenever conventional wisdom and the numbers — or whatever conclusion I have drawn from the numbers — differ, I’m left wondering why such a difference exists. Many times there’s a good reason; other times, the reasons make less sense. One situation where my conclusions appear to differ from conventional wisdom comes in the form of Vladimir Guerrero and his case for the Hall of Fame. When recently considering Guerrero’s statistical credentials for the Hall, he seemed to fall short of the voting standards for most recent candidates who gained induction. At the same time, his name currently appears on 75% of this year’s ballots according to Ryan Thibodaux’s tracker. So what gives?

The easy answer is that voters — due to Guerrero’s brilliance and flair at the plate — are willing either to minimize or forgive entirely Guerrero’s defense and baserunning, as well as the fact that his last above-average season occurred at age-33. They aren’t necessarily wrong, as he certainly has a case by virtue of his peak and career WAR numbers. He also recorded a very good .318 career batting average and an MVP award. Plus, from 1997 to 2006, his 114 assists topped all outfielders, with his great arm obscuring his lack of range and errors, in which category (errors) he also topped MLB during that time. That’s probably the most reasonable explanation for why I concluded he was just below the cusp for the Hall of Fame — certainly worthy of consideration, but not a certain Hall of Famer like the voters appear close to making him.

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Sort among batters for swinging strike rate over the past three years, and (unsurprisingly) you’ll get a list that features most of the strikeout kings at the plate. Mark Reynolds (17.5% swinging strikes) and Ryan Howard (15.3%) obviously belong based on their respective career strikeout rates (38.7% and 32% respectively). But track a little further down the list and you’ll notice that a high swinging strike rate is not always a harbinger of a high strikeout rate.

You won’t have to go far. Even third place on the list, Josh Hamilton, has a decent strikeout rate (20.6%) despite his high swinging strike rate (13.7%). Delmon Young even pairs a better-than-average strikeout rate (18.6% career) with a top-ten worst swinging strike percentage (12.7%) over the last three years. Clearly, the tendency to swing and miss at offerings is not the sole determinant of a batter’s strikeout rate.

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In his book, “Is This a Great Game or What?”, Tim Kurkjian relayed the tale of Vladimir Guerrero’s humble beginnings in pro ball. Then a lanky 16-year-old, Guerrero showed up at a tryout in the Dominican Republic on the back of a motorcycle. Sporting mismatched shoes with a sock shoved into one of them to make it fit, Vlad earned himself a contract with Montreal that day. The motorcycle driver got a couple hundred bucks, and the Expos got themselves one of the most devastating hitters in recent memory.

Since debuting with Les Expos as a 21-year-old in 1996, Guerrero has authored a .322/.386/.569 line. Possessing uncanny bat speed and hand-eye coordination and employing an eyes-to-ankles strike zone — he’ll swing at balls, strikes, fastballs, breaking stuff, off-speed, low-flying birds, errant gum wrappers and plastic bags — Vlad’s wRC+ is 144.

Heading into 2010, however, Guerrero appeared to be squarely in the decline phase of his career. Injuries really began to take their toll on The Impaler in 2009. Guerrero was slowed in spring training while recovering from off-season surgery on his right knee. He suffered a strained right pectoral muscle in April and a right calf strain in July, requiring a DL stint for both ailments. Vlad was limited to 407 plate appearances during his last season with the Angels, and he wasn’t his usual self at the dish.

Guerrero posted a .295/.334/.460 triple-slash, with his worst wRC+ (110) since that 27 PA stint with Montreal back in ’96. His mammoth power was conspicuously absent — Vlad’s Isolated Power, which ranged from .218 to .222 the previous three seasons, was a mild .164. The pending free agent produced just 0.8 Wins Above Replacement.

Guerrero’s days as an offensive force appeared numbered — entering his mid-thirties, his body was betraying him. He had to settle for a modest one-year, $6.5 million deal with the Texas Rangers this past winter, with a mutual option for the 2011 season. Suffice it to say, reports of The Impaler’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

In 311 PA with Texas, Guerrero’s hitting .339/.383/.580. His 152 wRC+ is his highest mark since 2005, as is his .240 ISO. With +19.5 Park Adjusted Batting Runs, Vlad ranks 11th among MLB hitters. And despite being a DH/part-time corner outfielder, he has already put up 2.6 WAR on the season. Last night, Guerrero went 4-for-4 while clubbing a pair of homers — he hammered a Scott Kazmir changeup for a grand slam in the fourth inning and smoked a Francisco Rodriguez slider in the eighth.

A few days ago, I looked at Joe Mauer’s unusual productivity when hitting the ball to the opposite field. Guerrero was also well above-average when going “oppo” in 2007 and 2008, while crushing the ball to center field most effectively. He continued to fare well when going to the middle field last year, but his performance when going the opposite way tailed off considerably:

As Vlad’s numbers when going the opposite way declined, he hit more pitches in that direction:

In 2010, Guerrero has been most effective when pulling the ball:

He has reversed those spray trends — Vlad’s hitting to the pull field 42.2 percent of the time, going to the middle field 39.5 percent and going the opposite way just 18.3 percent.

Vladimir Guerrero’s raking, and he’s making the Rangers look very smart. Wherever that motorcycle driver is, he deserves a bigger tip.