Testing the Depth: The National League

Yesterday, we explored the roster depth of the American League playoff contenders, identifying the strengths and weaknesses that might prove decisive down the stretch for the teams whose playoff odds sit above 10%. Today, we’ll do the same for the National League squads with October ambitions.

National League East

Atlanta Braves
Strengths: Atlanta’s slow and steady climb into first place has involved a considerable amount of roster management. One side effect of all the maneuvers that have gotten them where they are is significant depth. During Travis d’Arnaud’s absence, the team learned that William Contreras is a capable big league catcher. They filled their considerable outfield holes with Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Adam Duvall, while Cristian Pache, who flamed out early in the season, has finally gotten hot at Triple-A Gwinnett and should be a nice September addition. The Gwinnett infield is packed with players who have big league experience, like Jason Kipnis and Ryan Goins. The return of Huascar Ynoa, with Ian Anderson not far behind, creates a sudden bevy of rotation options.

Weaknesses: The Braves middle relief corps has struggled much of the year and there are no clear answers on the immediate horizon. Next in line for a chance might be Jacob Webb and Sean Newcomb, who both struggled in the big leagues but have put some good things together back in the minors. That’s especially the case with Newcomb, who had a miserable 17.3% walk rate in the majors, but has surrendered just one free pass over 12 Triple-A innings.

Philadelphia Phillies
Strengths: The Phillies don’t have a great outfield apart from Bryce Harper, but they have enough bodies to at least have a competent group patrolling the grass on a daily basis. The same can be said for their infield situation. These aren’t good players per se, but they’re rarely disasters.

Weaknesses: The Phillies obviously have one of the best catchers in baseball in J.T. Realmuto, and given who’s behind him, they have no choice but to lean on him heavily. Andrew Knapp is a fringy backup at best, and the Triple-A combo of Rafael Marchan and Tyler Heineman leaves much to be desired. The trio of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Kyle Gibson could form a formidable postseason starting group, but in the meantime, the team is still forced to mix-and-match the back of their rotation in the hopes that it will be enough to get them to October. Middle relief remains a problem as well. Acquiring Gibson and Ian Kennedy at the deadline certainly helped, and moving Ranger Suárez to a rotation spot has helped to balance some shortcomings, but the performances of the team’s pitchers will define the Phillies’ run.

New York Mets
Strengths: It’s not a reality today, but a healthy Francisco Lindor/Javier Báez double play combo gives the team fantastic infield flexibility and allows the Mets to use Jonathan Villar in a flex capacity, which is his best role. The outfield situation is more stable than good, but there are enough players to cover the at-bats. The relief group is more high floor than ceiling, but is surprisingly solid.

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Weaknesses: The team’s biggest question mark entering the year was its depth. If the Mets stayed healthy, they’d be good; if not, they’d be in trouble, and trouble is very much rearing its ugly head as we approach September. The team has some impressive prospects at the lower levels, but there are no 2021 saviors. The James McCann injury has already exposed the team’s excessively shallow catching situation. The team’s starting pitching depth is really defined by what the doctors say about Jacob deGrom’s arm health over the next six weeks.

National League Central

Milwaukee Brewers
Strengths: The team’s depth has already been tested due to one of the worst COVID-19 outbreaks of the season. The acquisition of Eduardo Escobar and a shockingly good showing from Rowdy Tellez have created a sudden embarrassment of riches on the infield, and a healthy outfield allows the club to play matchups in center and right field. Even beyond the big stars, the back of the rotation and the middle relief group have each been exceptionally good.

Weaknesses: Like many teams, the Brewers need their everyday catcher to stay healthy. Omar Narváez has been a rock this season, and while Manny Piña provides a presence in the clubhouse and occasional pop, he’d be exposed as the regular, and prospect Mario Feliciano’s tough season provides little insurance, if any.

Cincinnati Reds
Strengths: The Reds should have called up Jose Barrero and made him their everyday shortstop weeks ago, but his addition and the return of Mike Moustakas creates sudden infield depth, and the outfield remains strong, even with Jesse Winker temporarily sidelined. Their rotation remains one of their strongest suits, and the backstop combo of Tucker Barnhart and Tyler Stephenson is one of the best in the game. Amazingly, they’ve yet to use a third catcher on the season, with Beau Taylor waiting in the wings should the need arise.

Weaknesses: The bullpen has been an issue all season. The team revamped things at the end of July with the acquisitions of Mychal Givens, Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson, and the trio has been nothing short of excellent, with a composite ERA of 1.53 across 23.2 innings. But the questions as to who Cincinnati can count on for the last three to six outs of a game remain intact.

National League West

San Francisco Giants
Strengths: The Giants roster is one designed with depth in mind, and they take advantage of it with the best designed lineups in baseball, playing matchups well beyond platoons. Twelve players have already accumulated more than 200 plate appearances. In terms of position players, this group boasts the best depth in the major leagues.

Weaknesses: The Giants rotation has been nothing short of outstanding, but health is the key for them down the stretch, as reinforcements are almost non-existent. Scott Kazmir is the erstwhile sixth starter, as the majority of the rotation pieces at Triple-A Sacramento have ERAs north of six. How the club manages the innings of Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood down the stretch will be something to watch, especially after DeSclafani left Wednesday’s game with an ankle injury sustained while covering first base.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Strengths: The Dodgers’ depth has already been tested on nearly every level due to what feels like a never-ending stream of injuries, but they’ve survived and a healthy version of this team remains an exceptionally strong World Series contender. The addition of Trea Turner creates a cornucopia of options on the infield, which is important since their group at Triple-A is exceedingly light. A healthy Mookie Betts does the same for their outfield situation. Chris Taylor is the best multi-position player in baseball, and a walking depth-machine nearly everywhere on the diamond. The bullpen has been banged up like much of the rest of the team, but they’re getting healthier and have found surprising production from some unexpected sources, like Alex Vesia.

Weaknesses: At this point, when it comes to the rotation, it’s quite simple: If Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw return (and more importantly, return to form), the Dodgers should be fine. If not, they’re in trouble as they try to catch the Giants. The acquisitions of Turner and Max Scherzer cost the club Keibert Ruiz, and while Will Smith and Austin Barnes are a fantastic catching combo, any injury would force the club to lean on a sub-par vet like Chad Wallach (on the 40-man roster), Tim Federowicz or Tony Wolters.

San Diego Padres
Strengths: The Padres have plenty of depth when it comes to position players and the ability to score runs. The Adam Frazier acquisition and the move of Fernando Tatis Jr. to the outfield leaves the club with plenty of lineup options on a day-to-day basis. The bullpen remains healthy (for the most part), excellent and deep, but the team’s rotation issues have the potential to put some big workload strain on its relievers.

Weaknesses: This week, San Diego’s postseason chances dipped below 50% for the first time all season per our Playoff Odds and it’s because of their starting pitching depth, or lack thereof. With Chris Paddack, Yu Darvish and Dinelson Lamet all unavailable, and a Triple-A rotation bereft of fixes, the club signed Jake Arrieta to make a spot start on Wednesday. The results were less than sterling, with the right-hander giving up five runs in 3.1 innings before exiting with an injury. It’s desperation time for San Diego, and if they’re going to eat a roster spot as they did with Arrieta, why not give someone like prospect Adrian Martinez a chance, with the hope that he can harness some of the magic the whole world knows is no longer present in Arrieta?





Kevin Goldstein is a National Writer at FanGraphs.

57 Comments
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Shirtless Bartolo Colon
4 years ago

Eagerly waiting for the Padres to bring Shields back. Definitely magic when that guy takes the mound.

kylerkelton
4 years ago

Saw Bartolo throwing a bullpen on Instagram the other day. Looking as svelte as ever.

Shirtless Bartolo Colon
4 years ago
Reply to  kylerkelton

You should see me in the batting cage. Hungry for a comeback with an NL team.

Smiling PolitelyMember since 2018
4 years ago

Is Jake Peavy available?

fredsbankMember since 2020
4 years ago

Can’t be much worse than any of their other starters.

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
4 years ago

Jonathan Villar in a “flex capacity” could carry the Mets back to 1969.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago

I think you could copy and paste a section for every team that says “if they lose one of their top 3 starters, they’re in trouble” since the drop off from the #3 starter to the #6 starter is enormous for every team on this list. And you could do something similar with catching, since most teams scramble for a single competent catcher, much less two.

What’s confusing is the selective discussion of pitching and the catching. It’s true, the drop off from Kyle Gibson to the Phillies #6 starter is enormous, but so is the drop off from Freddy Peralta to the Brewers’ #6 starter. Are we really claiming we knew the Mets didn’t have enough rotation depth when their opening-day roster featured a rotation of deGrom, Stroman, Walker, Lucchesi, and Peterson, with Carrasco and Syndergaard looming as a mid-season additions? It’s obviously a problem now but claiming we knew this before the season started seems wrong.

The catching discussion is even weirder. Contreras might eventually be a good catcher but he’s below replacement right now, so that’s a problem if d’Arnaud gets hurt again. In terms of teams that with catchers who have better injury histories than d’Arnaud, the Dodgers and Brewers have excellent short-term backups at catcher with Barnes and Pina. The Mets actually would be fine with catching depth if it wasn’t for the fact that Nido is also hurt (he’s not a starter but he’s a good enough backup).

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

It’s arguable that replacing Freddy Peralta with Aaron Ashby is less catastrophic than pitching Matt Moore ever.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

Just to pile on about the Phillies–Velasquez is getting a rehab assignment and Eflin is throwing bullpens. Interestingly, Matt Moore is probably fine. It’s if they have to send Chase Anderson back out as a starter that should worry them. But since he’s the #7 if Velazquez is back and #8 if Eflin returns, I think that’s reasonable.

Lanidrac
4 years ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

It’ll have to be, at least for the next couple of weeks, as Peralta is indeed injured and on the IL now.

JohnThackerMember since 2025
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Well, not “every team on this list.” For Atlanta, it’s the reverse because they just got Ynoa and are getting Ian Anderson back. So no, there hasn’t been a big difference between Smyly, Toussaint, Muller, & Tucker Davidson the last couple months.

kylerkelton
4 years ago

Braves also have Eddie Rosario on the horizon. Amazing how the OF situation went from dire to pretty solid. Also, getting TdA back was huge for the catching situation. I appreciate the effort put forth by his replacements but none of them can even come close to his production. He gives you another legitimate bat in the lineup.

airforce21oneMember since 2026
4 years ago
Reply to  kylerkelton

I like how you used “TdA”

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
4 years ago
Reply to  airforce21one

Who sometimes engaged in PDA with his brother CdA

kylerkelton
4 years ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

The dA brothers are definitely above average in the looks department.

dukewinslowMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  kylerkelton

I’d have to see it with Pache before I believe it

steveo
4 years ago

The Reds adding some bullpen help definitely was a good idea. It’s too bad they didn’t do a little more since the Padres are sliding. Same with the Mets and Phillies. They added some pieces, but didn’t go for the kill shot, really. This is why upgrading at the deadline is always a good idea. Rarely do teams regret giving up their prospects and sometimes teams don’t get another good shot at contention the following year.

Look at the Red Sox. They got an injured Schwarber and Hansel Robles (?) at the deadline. They thought they had good enough cushion to hold a wildcard spot and fight for the division without doing anything significant. Granted, that was a fair thought, but they’re in a tough spot now and are currently outside of a wildcard spot. I’m not just picking on the Sox, either. The A’s could’ve really used a better SS. I know every team can’t make significant upgrades, but the Giants have the best record in baseball and got Kris Bryant. The Dodgers are a lock for a WC spot, and acquired Scherzer and Turner.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  steveo

I’ve been pretty convinced by this year that simply not selling and adding complementary pieces for iffy prospects and hoping someone else collapses is a good strategy. Both the Braves and the Reds did that this year and while it wouldn’t have worked without the Mets and Padres collapsing under the weight of their injuries, the Braves and Reds look like the favorites for the NL East and the second wild card spot, respectively. I didn’t think it would work, but it seems like it has worked twice now.

Although part of the reason why this made sense for them is that neither of those teams had a lot of players they could trade. They might as well ride it out.

steveo
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Agreed. I think fans underestimate how long of a season 162 games is (especially after last year). Minor upgrades and a team ahead of you collapsing aren’t *that* outlandish of outcomes. Lots of people believed the Yankees should sell off.. but who exactly? They don’t have any worthwhile expiring contracts and want to keep everyone else. Even the Jays are in the thick of things though they’re 4 games back. Though Brad Hand being bad doesn’t help matters.

Apparently the Red Sox were in on Anthony Rizzo, but didn’t want to give up what it took to get him. I mean, realistically, they probably could’ve topped the offer, but who knows. The Yankees gave up a 50 and a 45 FV in Alcantara and Vizcaino. The Sox don’t have a low level teenager position player with that upside. But maybe something similar would be Wilkeman Gonzalez and… Jarren Duran? Idk, that might be a little much. But I’m lower on Duran’s hit tool and he was in a hitters park in AAA. Seeing pitchers attack him in the bigs, I’m even more alarmed. But stealing Rizzo away directly from the Yankees might’ve been worth that tbh.

It was reported that the Marlins asked the Yankees for Anthony Volpe in a potential Marte deal, so who really knows what teams want from different teams.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  steveo

The Yankees trading for Rizzo was the one move I thought they shouldn’t have made, and the Red Sox almost certainly made the right move trading for Schwarber instead. He’s picked up right where he left off. So I can’t say I agree with you in that specific case.

And between the Rizzo and Gallo deals, I don’t think the Yankees really fall into the category of trading iffy, not-high-probability big leaguers. They weren’t exactly shipping out Kasey Kalich here. So I think they’re pretty different from the Braves and Reds. They absolutely went for it instead, and it is paying off. It’s a much more conventional route than what the Braves and Reds did, but also much riskier (although as you and I know, part of the reason they did it this way is because of 40-man roster management).

steveo
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Meh. Trading for an injured player is kind of weak when you’re going for it tbh. He’s only played a few games for them so far. And the OF had Verdguo, Kike, Renfroe. They needed a 1B more. Of course with Christian Hernandez out, Kike was playing the IF too so Schwarber does help. Don’t want to minimize that. They could’ve done both. Gotten a 1B and Schwarber.

I disagree on Rizzo. I think trading for him was right, but I don’t like that they gave up such a good prospect. But I guess if you’re going to, a 19 year old in rookie ball is the guy to give up.

They traded medium probability big leaguers, but not their top prospects. If you’re in contention, you do that every time. But also the 40 man considerations like you said were a massive consideration.

dukewinslowMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Calculation seems pretty easy for the Braves. Underperform your Run diff all year, you’re only a couple games back, and your expected numbers back up the run diff, not the W-L record. That, coupled with your rivals’ overperformance (Expected and actual), and it makes sense to move.

Is the same thing true for the reds? In a sense they were chasing the Brewers but they are also chasing the Padres and neither they nor the Braves knew that the Padres bottom was going to fall out.

Lanidrac
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Three times, actually. The Cardinals did as well, and they’ve also been moving up in the standings recently.

Who would’ve thought J.A. Happ only needed a change of scenery?

Dooduh
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

The Mets collapse has nothing to do with injuries. Their inability to hit all season was eventually going to take a toll as there was no way their SPing was going to maintain its level of dominance.

teufelshuffle
4 years ago
Reply to  Dooduh

I mostly agree. Their rotation has been decimated by injuries despite remarkable depth built up this offseason (Walker was supposed to be the 5th starter!). They lost so many competent depth starters (Peterson, Luccheisi, Yamamoto, Gsellman, Reid-Foley, Hunter, and several others I’m forgetting) and that led to some punted games throughout the year started by Jerad Eickoff and TBD.

But ultimately that’s not the reason they have collapsed. It’s the regulars on the offensive side. A sustained, team-wide underachievement with no single cause and no single solution. They just have not scored runs.

E-Dub
4 years ago
Reply to  steveo

The key to the Reds’ bullpen situation is the return of Tejaye Antone and the retooling of Santillan as a reliever (temporarily, one hopes). Antone is arguably their best late-inning weapon, and he should lead the closer committee. Santillan has already been used in some late-game situations but also gives them a nice multi-inning option to mimic Antone’s usage in past years. With Amir Garrett coming around a bit I’m as sanguine on the ‘pen as I have been all year.

carterMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  E-Dub

Greene should be up in the bullpen now, imo

carterMember since 2020
4 years ago

You sure spend a lot of time writing about third catchers. It isn’t just this article either. Maybe that is something front offices care a lot about, I guess.

kylerkelton
4 years ago
Reply to  carter

I’m sure the way front offices/teams think about catchers is wildly different than how fans think about them.

fredsbankMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  carter

Probably because there’s very few catchers who are consistently good at more than one aspect of the game, and after them the position is largely interchangeable.

carterMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  fredsbank

I agree with you. But that is sort of why it is a moot point to me. It isn’t like there are guys out there, or else ya know they would have jobs.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  carter

This is correct. The scarcity of the position is extreme enough that it means it’s a big deal for almost everyone and virtually impossible to solve.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago

In case you’re wondering, the Dodgers are currently 3 games back. The Dodgers are also now projected to win 100 games, and the Giants to win 99 (on the playoff odds page, on the standings page they’re both projected for 100–I think one is updated a day earlier than the other).

So I’m circling the Dodgers-Giants series Sep 3-5 on my calendar. It’s possible for the Dodgers to overtake the Giants even if they don’t win the series, but it’ll be way harder. I suspect that FG projection system is going to keep giving the benefit of the doubt to the Dodgers (somewhat optimistically, I’d say) but I think after that series it could be very obvious which way this is going.

jamesdakrnMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Imagine the chaos of a game 163 between the Dodgers and Giants

drew_willyMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

The difference between the two W-L numbers shown on the Projected Standings and Playoff Odds pages isn’t an issue of updating at different times. The explanation is that the Playoff Odds page takes into account strength of remaining schedule, while the Projected Standings page does not. So the Playoff Odds standings is more comprehensive.

Also, as of my writing this, the Dodgers are only 1.5 games back. It should be a very close finish between the two teams.

stakhanovitamix
4 years ago

I’m curious, why is the Mets lineup (minus Alonso and Nimmo) not listed as a weakness? Injuries aside, hasn’t the performance of their regulars (when available) been the biggest problem? They lost 7 out of 11 games against the Pirates and the Marlins when they were pretty healthy- because they weren’t hitting. You cite depth, but it honestly, it seems like most of the “depth” players for the Mets have performed about as well as one could hope for when forced into action- and they have been forced into action a lot! And they have unearthed some unexpected value in their system in guys like Megill and Mazeika.

fredsbankMember since 2020
4 years ago

The Mets lineup is so bad, their owner is trashing them in public. It’s a colossal weakness. The only (senior circuit) teams with worse offense are the dumpsters of the NL, and the similarly floundering Cardinals.

Lanidrac
4 years ago
Reply to  fredsbank

The Cardinals’ lineup isn’t that bad. Sure, DeJong has had a lousy year, and Arenado isn’t hitting quite as well as expected; but only 3 of their regulars are hitting below league average, Goldschmidt and Arenado are still very good hitters, Carlson is one of the better rookies out there, and they’ve had some nice offensive improvements from O’Neill and Bader.

Neils-Henning Orsted Joc PedersonMember since 2025
4 years ago
Reply to  Lanidrac

The St. Louis everyday eight isn’t bad.
But the bench might be the worst in baseball, if Sosa is categorized as a starter and Carpenter a bench piece. Big failure on Mozeliak’s part to let the inexpensive and useful Brad Miller get away. Big failure by manager Mike Shildt to ignore Sosa for nearly two months, while playing the Uselessness Twins, Justin Williams and Matt Carpenter, over and over and over….

With average position player depth the club would be right there with the Reds — and with an adequate manager, maybe even the Friars.

fredsbankMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  Lanidrac

If only you could go look at the team offense and see that the Cardinals offense is, in fact, bad

TheGarrettCooperFanClub
4 years ago

I agree. I thought the one thing the Mets had a lot of before the season started was depth. Villar was a bench player, Almora was in AAA, Pillar seemed like a decent fourth outfielder, among others (the earlier injury crew did a fine job of holding down the fort). The problem has been that most of their regulars are playing terribly. Now that they’re not playing well, I guess depth is their issue, because they don’t have someone to step in for the struggling regulars and perform at their expected level. But, it’s hard to say depth was their issue at the beginning of the year.

David Klein
4 years ago

Megill has been great but Mazieka is a weird add by you, he’s had more shower time than playing time though that might be about to change.

stakhanovitamix
4 years ago
Reply to  David Klein

True, he hasn’t played a whole lot, but he’s been serviceable when he’s played. The article calls the Mets catching depth “excessively shallow”, so I thought it was meaningful to have an example of a guy who has been able to fill in respectably when needed- especially a guy like Mazeika who didn’t even appear on the to 30 prospects list at the start of the year.

thebearproofsuit
4 years ago

So the NYM at 60-60 and 5.5 games out warrant a writeup, but the M’s, at 65-56 and only 3 games back don’t?

I would think we are getting close to the cutoff where there are so few games left that counting on teams to regress to their run differential makes less and less sense. If you are contending with ~30 games left, you are a contender. Besides, I think SEA has had a positive run differential or been nearly even in all months besides May.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago

4.5 games back, and the teams they are trying to catch are weaker.

Including the Blue Jays in was a much more arbitrary decision than including the Mets.

remember2004
4 years ago

I 100% agree regarding Seattle.

I said the same in supporting your comment in yesterdays article on the AL teams. I notice that today that in Kevin’s first paragraph he writes ‘teams whose playoff odds sit above 10%’ which he did not write yesterday.

The odds for Seattle are currently 3.5% HOWEVER they have been over performing their projections all year and they deserved to be part of the AL discussion. The team is about to go 10 games over .500 and yet they get no love!

I reckon that’s a bit of Houston bias on Kevin’s behalf. He is so used to disregarding Seattle from his front office days that he does it subconsciously!

hughduffy
4 years ago

Sadly, the Mariners don’t warrant a write up at this point. They have the second-toughest schedule going forward among contenders, after the Rays. They have series against the Astros, A’s, Angels, Royals, Red Sox, and Diamondbacks left to play. They have a negative run differential, and an expected won/loss record of 57-65, meaning they’re 9 games above expectation. They’re 26-14 in 1-run games, which is one reason they’re playing above expectation. But they’re in the bottom 4 teams in the AL in terms of runs scored, and about league average in runs allowed.

Might the Mariners overtake the A’s? Possibly — the A’s have a similarly tough schedule left. But the Blue Jays and Red Sox both have easier schedules going forward and positive run differentials. The Mariners have to win against some tough teams if they want to make the playoffs AND the other wild card competitors have to fold down the stretch.

And historically, if you look through the Fangraphs playoff odds through 2014, the lowest playoff odds in the middle of August for a team that eventually made the postseason was 6.7% by the 2016 Mets. They were below 10% for two days in August. That’s it. The Minnesota Twins rose from 4% in the beginning of August 2017 and were at 26.7% by this date that year.

The highest playoff odds the Mariners have had all season is 6.1% on July 26. The odds for the Mariners this season are not the kinds of playoff odds that teams since 2014 have had.

The Mets are falling out of contention as we speak, and look to fall even further unless they beat the Dodgers and Giants in their series this week. By next week, I don’t think the Mets get included in this writeup, much like the Braves were excluded for much of this season. That’s because the Braves did not look much like a playoff team, and that’s what replacing their entire outfield did for their playoff chances.

Could the Mariners raise their chances? Yes. Winning series this week against the A’s and the Astros would put them much closer to contention. But they’re really not worth talking about right now unless they do.

thebearproofsuit
4 years ago
Reply to  hughduffy

Great breakdown hduffy. I just think if the Mets warranted a write-up so did the M’s. I think the M ‘run differential is a bit misleading since about almost 90% of that differential was in May alone and nearly 50% of it in games pitched by Sheffield, who will no longer be starting. Are they longshots? Sure, but at 3 games out they are in the mix.

thebearproofsuit
4 years ago

interesting note: when changing the projection mode from default to ‘season to date stats’ mode, which weighs recent play more heavily…M’s % jump to 11% …and Mets fall to 5%.

hughduffy
4 years ago

That’s because of how the projection modes work. Fangraphs projection mode is forward looking, while ‘season to date stats’ is backwards looking. ‘season to date stats’ uses current season stats, weighting more heavily towards the most recent games. That means that if there are real improvements in the players and their performance, you’ll see that reflected there. That’s why the Mariners chances jump, and the Mets chances dive even further. The Mets have been playing the Dodgers and the Giants, and not playing them well. The Mariners have been playing the Rangers and the Blue Jays and playing well.

Antonio BananasMember since 2026
4 years ago

Agree. The Mets are also near the end of an incredibly tough stretch and arent at full strength. The Cardinals have as much of a shot as the Mets at this point.

sphenreckson
4 years ago

Manny Pina is a weakness? He’s a good defender with a little pop. I agree he wouldn’t be a good starting catcher, but do most teams have two starting caliber catchers?

sphenreckson
4 years ago
Reply to  sphenreckson

He’s projected for .3 WAR ROS, and there are no teams on your depth chart with a back up catcher projected for more than that.

kylemoto10Member since 2022
4 years ago

The Dodgers DFA’d Wallach a few weeks back, and ended up basically swapping him with Anthony Bemboom from the Angels.

leftycurve66
4 years ago

The Cardinals are closer to a playoff spot as the Mets, and as close as the Phillies.

Neils-Henning Orsted Joc PedersonMember since 2025
4 years ago
Reply to  leftycurve66

Speaking as a Cardinal fan, I put their playoff chances at next to nil, largely due to a brutal September schedule.

Ordinarily I feel that schedule difficulty is overblown. But St. Louis is more schizo than a nutty professor this year. Versus sub – .500 opposition, they’re 43-26. Against winning teams, 19-32. And they’ve got a looong, nasty stretch featuring 26 of 30 games coming up against playoff contenders — including 10 versus the Brewers, and a handful against the Dodgers.

Moreover, Cardinal manager Shildt only trusts three relievers, and he’s pretty much already burned all three of them out. Specifically, as of a week ago there were just four relievers in the entire N.L. who were on pace for both 75 appearances and 75 innings. Incredibly, St. Louis had three of the four, in Cabrera, Gallegos, and Reyes. And just in the last few days Shildt has used Cabrera once and Gallegos twice with 4 and 5-run leads. From the 7th inning on, he’s managing every game like it’s the NLCS. And he’s been doing so for the entire season. (Wrong manager for a shallow roster, because he’s just not good at thinking or planning.)

Dooduh
4 years ago

Wuuut..?? The James McCann injury is a blessing. He sucks. Chance flippin Sisco ripped a double in his 1st AB as a Met in what might’ve been the best swing taken by a Mets catcher all season. And Pat Mazeika has been more clutch in fewer opportunities than practically any other Met this szn.

The Mets biggest weakness by far is their inability to hit and in particular hit hit with runners on. And about depth, the team’s best run this season was when their ‘depth’ was forced into regular roles. They’ve only cratered once their regulars all returned. See the problem..?