That Was the Week of Javier Baez

The Cubs just moved past the Giants in four games, and over those four games, Javier Baez batted .375, with a .974 OPS. He drove in the only run of Game 1 with a late and dramatic solo dinger, and he drove in the winning run of Game 4 with a late and dramatic line-drive single to center. Even given Baez’s offensive heroics, I’m going to remember him for one play he made in the field, a play that didn’t even ultimately result in an out.

A good number of ballparks across the country have setups where fans can try to throw pitches in front of a radar gun. On the primary level, it functions as fleeting entertainment — here, see how hard you can throw it, and we’ll even give you three chances. It’s a weird way to spend five dollars, but, how often does one get to be objectively measured? That part’s appealing, but there’s also a subliminal element. The radar gun works as an advertisement for the product on the field, because it isn’t until a fan gets measured that said fan begins to realize how extraordinary the players really are. It’s kind of a Dunning-Kruger thing; people happily underestimate the difficulty of throwing accurately, with speed. The worst pitcher in the major leagues is amazing. The worst pitcher in Single-A is amazing.

It’s been some years since I was measured, myself, and, granted, I didn’t exactly prepare. I also hadn’t pitched regularly since high school. But I did pitch, and I’ve got a long body, so you’d think I could do okay. When I stepped in, my first pitch was 68. My second chance sailed in at 71, and then I muscled up for my final, explosive delivery. It was also 71. I then returned to my seat, a little more sore than I used to be.

Yesterday, Javier Baez got to this Denard Span grounder up the middle.

It was enough that Baez got to the ball. It was enough that he handled it cleanly. But then Baez got to his feet — or, more accurately, his foot. Baez had his left leg off the ground. His right foot pointed to third base. He twisted his torso to throw the ball to first while airborne, all the while falling backward. Not only was Baez’s throw somehow on the money. The ball left his hand at 72 miles per hour. Javier Baez is amazing.

That was the week, and series, of Javier Baez. I know that, after further review, it was determined that Span ever so slightly beat out that throw. That doesn’t take anything away from Baez’s effort. That was one of the better defensive plays I’ve seen that didn’t result in an out, and if you’d like to see a more successful version, you could just look at a play from the game before.

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That one was its own kind of controversial, as the Cubs got the out even though it couldn’t be seen whether Anthony Rizzo had his foot touching the bag as the ball reached the back of his glove. Again, it doesn’t matter. We don’t need to be so results-oriented, especially with the series complete. Javier Baez twice did something amazing, launching strong throws to first even when it looked like some deity was pulling on his puppet strings.

Flash back to Tuesday again. Span’s on first, despite Baez’s best effort. Span takes off, drawing a throw. The throw from David Ross short-hops the infielder.

Javier Baez might be baseball’s best tagger. That’s not a skill I’d ever before considered. Never thought there could be a best and a worst at something like that. Didn’t know there was technique. Javier Baez has mastered the technique. Or even, not really, because Javier Baez has mastered his own technique. Look at how he put himself in perfect position. Baez had his glove in place such that as the ball would arrive, a tag would be immediately applied. You can train yourself to field a short-hop. Every baseball player does. You can’t so easily train yourself to make the same play with a whole grown man closing in, threatening to snap you at the wrist. Javier Baez made a great play to nearly earn an out. Within minutes, he made a great play to erase the baserunner who had just barely reached.

The Cubs can’t say enough about Baez’s defense. He’s one of their best defenders. He’s arguably one of the best defenders, and he’s one of the best at multiple positions. You’ve heard baseball described as a tribal game: Fans mostly just pay attention to their own favorite teams. They don’t watch so many games in which they don’t have a strong rooting interest. The playoffs always grab a bigger audience, and this is how Javier Baez was introduced to a nation. Re-introduced, I suppose. But anyone who watched now understands that Javier Baez is fantastic out there.

Of course, he’s not just some defensive specialist. What did you know before about Baez’s baserunning? Maybe it’s not a surprise that he has good speed, but he blends that with excellent instincts. Tuesday, he hit a ground ball to Brandon Crawford, and when Crawford spiked the ball in the dirt, Baez advanced all the way to third base, setting up a run. More impressive, I think, was what Baez did in Game 2.

That’s Kyle Hendricks hitting that flare, and that’s Baez leaving second base. You see that there’s nobody out, and the ball didn’t drop all that far in front of Span. As the camera pans to the outfield, Baez is already sprinting out of the picture, and then he comes around to score. You could try to make the argument this was risky — if Span makes that catch, Baez is easily doubled up. But it seems instead like Baez properly read the ball off the bat, after properly evaluating Span’s position. Baez’s instincts told him to go, and it made the play into a two-run single.

Defense: present. Baserunning: present. The first thing anyone loved about Baez was the power, and the power won a game in the series:

That’s Baez responding to a full-count quick pitch, and even though the ball barely got out, it’s important to understand Baez hit that fly almost directly into the wind. He muscled the ball out nevertheless, and the Cubs won 1-0. The most conspicuous part of Baez’s game is the bat speed. It’s what gives him such an incredible ceiling. But don’t overlook what Baez did against Hunter Strickland in Tuesday’s decisive ninth. The at-bat lasted three pitches. Here’s the first:

Classic Javy Baez, swinging for the moon. We’ve seen that swing before, and it put Baez behind in the count. The Giants read the swing and figured Baez might be vulnerable against Strickland’s heat, on account of the leg kick. The second pitch:

You see that? The leg kick is gone. Baez brought his leg up in going after the first pitch, but on the second pitch, Baez’s foot stayed on the ground, and he just about timed the fastball. Still, the ball was fouled off and Baez found himself behind 0-and-2. And then:

That’s not a bad spot for that pitch. Maybe you’d like it a little wider, or maybe you’d like a breaking ball, but that was a big-time heater, well down and away. You’d think that pitch would draw weak contact, but Baez kept his foot down, and he timed the pitch, and he smacked it up the middle to effectively win the NLDS. I watched a lot of Baez in 2014. He didn’t have a two-strike approach. His two-strike approach was basically his 2-and-0 approach. This is a sign of his growth. Baez back then struck out 42% of the time. This year, he struck out 24% of the time. Baez back then struck out 66% of the time in two-strike counts, with a .361 OPS. This year, he struck out 45% of the time in two-strike counts, with a .601 OPS. Javier Baez is 23, and he’s made himself a more complete hitter.

You definitely don’t want to exaggerate. Baez’s aggressiveness can still be taken advantage of, and at the end of the day, he finished 2016 with the same wRC+ as Cheslor Cuthbert. Javier Baez isn’t yet an actual superstar, and most players never get around to making that leap. But on one side, Baez is remarkably well-rounded, with good instincts and elite-level defense at more than one position. And then, even at the plate, Baez is already far more polished than he was as a rookie. He’s no longer a clueless opponent with 80-grade bat speed. The bat speed’s still there, but now Baez has ideas, ideas that aren’t to simply try to hit the ball 600 feet.

Javier Baez is coming together, and if he were to develop into a star, he’d look a lot like how he just looked for four games. It’s always been fun to dream on his upside. That upside is now maybe one step away.





Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

57 Comments
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JediHoyer
10 years ago

I apologize on behalf of some of my fellow cubs fans. I’ve seen some say they wouldnt trade him straight up for Jose Quintana. Just remember solers playoffs last year.

CosmoMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  JediHoyer

I’m trying not to get a head of myself, but I’m getting pretty effing excited about him.

JayT
10 years ago
Reply to  JediHoyer

I don’t see it as all that weird to say you wouldn’t trade a 23 year old 2B/SS that’s one of the best fielders in the league and has big offensive upside for a 28 year old pitcher that has a lot of miles on his arm and just finished a season where his FIP and xFIP were a lot higher than his ERA.
Quintana was better this year, but I’m not sure I would bet on him being better next year.

JediHoyer
10 years ago
Reply to  JayT

Quintana is lester… But younger and on a 4yr/35 mil deal. 28 is a prime age so I don’t know why you imply that’s negative? Point is, proven top of rotation guy is more valuable. I love Baez btw, he wears the same number I did and his tags remind me of what my dad used to say about my tags before he passed away.

JediHoyer
10 years ago
Reply to  JediHoyer

Which reminds me of how to describe his tagging, it’s like he’s framing a pitch but the runner is the strike zone, you catch the ball towards the strike zone.

JayT
10 years ago
Reply to  JediHoyer

I’m just saying that at 28 Quintana most likely is what he is. The chances of a big jump in quality is fairly unlikely. He’s a fantastic pitcher worth like 4-5 war.
With Baez he’s still young enough that I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned into a well above average hitter. If he could get his wRC+ up to like 120 then he’d be a 6-7 win player, so it’s really a question of do you want to go with someone that is a higher variance player or not.

In a vacuum I would probably trade Baez for Quintana, but it wouldn’t be a no-brainer type move.

JediHoyer
10 years ago
Reply to  JayT

He’s just never going to walk, so that 120 wrc+ is pretty rosey, he’s at 95 with like a .350 babip the last 2 years. Quintana is the 8th most valuable pitcher over the last 3 years, 10th over the last 4.

JayT
10 years ago
Reply to  JediHoyer

I don’t know. The guy I keep coming back to is Alfonso Soriano. He had a year where his walk rate was lower than Baez’s and he was still able to put up a 131 wRC+. Most years he was in the 110-120 range. Now remove Soriano’s terrible infield defense and replace it with Baez’s fantastic defense, and you have a recipe for a superstar.

JediHoyer
10 years ago
Reply to  JayT

Baez hasn’t shown the same power with his new approach… And you would have to replace sorianos excellent base running for merely good. That’s celing too, his floor is merely a pretty good player. Win curve makes it the easiest decision ever if offered.

JediHoyer
10 years ago
Reply to  JediHoyer

For the people downvoting if it’s due to the Quintana lester comp look at last 3 years.

YKnotDisco
10 years ago
Reply to  JediHoyer

Damn near identical.

sheeks9
10 years ago
Reply to  JediHoyer

I’d be all about Quintana.

That being said, I do not believe Baez gets it done alone. We had to move Gleyber Torres+ to rent Chapman. If Quintana became available the bidding war would be intense and wouldn’t want to empty the farm system in a deal that costs us Baez + Jimenez, Happ, or whatever else the Sox would inevitably demand.

I can only imagine the price for Chris Sale.

I kinda want to see the Red Sox move Moncada or Benintendi to the White Sox. It would be fun to see them play in Chicago.

JediHoyer
10 years ago
Reply to  sheeks9

That was my point, most fans wouldn’t do it straight up and that’s just being a victim of recency bias or letting tools blind that he isn’t as good as Quintana right now.

rbemont
10 years ago
Reply to  JediHoyer

Y’know that saying the teams and fans tend to over-value “other team’s players”?

I think Cub fans are the opposite of that. Right now they’d take David Ross over Lucroy.

swingofthings
10 years ago
Reply to  rbemont

Never heard that saying. In my experience fans overvalue their own team’s players and undervalue others’.

sheeks9
10 years ago
Reply to  rbemont

Isn’t it the other way around?

I remember when the rumors were Cubs/Mets swapping a SS for pitching.

Cubs fans were obnoxious and expected Syndergaard for Starlin Castro and Vogelbach.

However, Mets fans expected Russell and Bryant for an injured Wheeler.

I think it goes both ways.

inTIMidationMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  rbemont

Right now I’d take David Ross over Jesus

JediHoyer
10 years ago
Reply to  inTIMidation

But tebow has tools?

milogoestocollege
10 years ago
Reply to  JediHoyer

Soler’s post season came after a pretty pedestrian season. We’ve been seeing flashes of brilliance from Javy all season. I think Javy has earned more confidence that this isn’t a fluke.

JediHoyer
10 years ago

Again recency bias, Solers exit velocity last year was a big deal during the regular season and he DESTROYED in the postseason… 9-19, 6 bb, 3hr, 3 doubles. I’m buying javys d, but those 4 games don’t make me a believer in his bat. He got a fb 3-2 and 0-2 instead of a slider or this is a different story.

TheGoodDoctor81
10 years ago

Hi, all. I’m just here for the johnforthegiants comments.

Brians Sticky Sock
10 years ago

I’m not sure yet what to expect. He’s (jftg) had a perplexing week. After lecturing us all summer on our undersanding of stats, he decided yesterday that small sample size didn’t matter because Posey was 6-10 off Chapman. I wish John would just write down all the rules for us plebians so we know how to react.

output gap
10 years ago

162 game BABIP suppression record: small sample size, won’t persist, all luck
10 PA career pitcher vs. catcher: enough to definitively identify a bad match up for one or the other

Seems clearly logical to me

johnforthegiants
10 years ago

Made a separate post on this.

DavidMember since 2022
10 years ago

I’ve always wondered what it would be like to play catch with a “noodle-arm” player like, say, Johnny Damon. I haven’t played organized baseball since junior high school and I’ll bet that even someone who looks like he has a Damonesque arm would be, by far, the strongest, most accurate person I’ll ever play catch with.

Great article,by the way. I just love watching Javier Baez. One of the few players who I always expect to have highlight plays at the plate and in the field.

Brians Sticky Sock
10 years ago
Reply to  David

I felt the same way when people were mocking Tebow for his baseball tryouts. I’m not a fan of his, but the guy is a world class athlete.

JediHoyer
10 years ago
Reply to  David

Kris Davis probably only throws in the 70’s so maybe.

Eric_the_Red_Davis_Fan
10 years ago
Reply to  David

I’ve played some baseball in my life – nothing organized, just ‘pickup’ so to speak, and a lot of ‘wallball’/’berbie’ where we were throwing balls against a wall with a made up strikezone painted on. With my friends I was never one of the hardest throwers – I was average. Funny thing was that when I started to see guys throw a baseball outside of my group of friends I found I was probably a better throw than 80% of them (am amazed how some men never really learned to throw a ball). Crazy thing is when my harder throwing friends were clocked on a radar gun they could only hit mid-60’s. That’s what I find crazy. I can throw as hard as I can being a better thrower than 80% of the population and I still can’t throw harder than Dickey’s knuckleball. Major league pitchers lob balls into the strike zone in 60’s at what would be my hardest throw. And probably every major league baseball player can throw a ‘fastball’ in the low 80s’. That’s nuts.

dtpollittMember since 2016
10 years ago

A+ post Jeff. As Theo mentioned last night in the post-game interview, drafting Baez was oen of Jim Hendry’s best moves.

I have no idea what the Cubs are going to do next year. Baez demands daily playing time, but how do you distribute Zobrist / Russell / Bryant / Baez? My guess is Zobs & Kris move to the OF more frequently and Baez is a super rover who plays, somewhere, everyday.

Brians Sticky Sock
10 years ago
Reply to  dtpollitt

I think it gives them all added rest… fresh for possible post season runs.

bcook1132
10 years ago
Reply to  dtpollitt

You gotta throw Schwarber into that mix too. He might get a start at catcher once a rotation, but you’d have to think his primary position will still be left field. I guess Heyward might play some more CF next year if Dexter finally leaves, which opens up a OF spot for Bryant or Zobrist, but it’s gonna be a real (good) problem.

Euthoniel
10 years ago
Reply to  bcook1132

Yeah, I expect Heyward to play a lot of CF next year if Fowler leaves, with Almora getting some games in center too.

Before Fowler signed, I recall Baez was playing some CF in the winter leagues and spring training. Although I remember at least one bad read he took on a ball, so maybe they won’t try it again. Plus they’d miss his tags at second base.

bcook1132
10 years ago
Reply to  Euthoniel

Yeah, the reviews on the Baez As Centerfielder Experiment were not great. Given what a weapon he is in the infield, I think it’s time to end that. If you want to experiment with an infielder in center, I think Bryant would be the better option at this point, if he’s willing. (I’d be fine if he isn’t.)

BrockWasOverrated
10 years ago
Reply to  Euthoniel

I just had a vision of a designed pickoff play at second where Javy rushes in behind the runner from CF. 🙂

dbb10
10 years ago
Reply to  dtpollitt

I’d be pretty surprised if Javy wasn’t the everyday second baseman next year. I’d expect Zobrist to shift into more of a super utility player. Javy had 11 DRS in 383 innings. Pedroia and Kinsler led the league in that category with 12 DRS in nearly 3.5 times the number of innings. A pretty good case can be made that Javy is already the best defensive second baseman in the game. I don’t know how Maddon is going to manage it, but I’d have to guess that Javy’s time at second base will increase significantly next year.

olethrosMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  dtpollitt

Everyday IF: Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Bryant.

That’s the framework you shuffle around.

Matt
10 years ago
Reply to  dtpollitt

The Cubs will have a lot of moving parts next year, but the issue will mainly be where to put them to maximize defense rather than worrying about getting everyone ABs. Assuming Fowler declines his option, that leaves the Cubs with Bryant, Russell, Baez, Zobrist, Schwarber, Soler, Heyward, Contreras, Almora for the remaining 7 spots plus Rizzo locked at 1B.

Schwarber won’t be able to play every day coming off that injury and he certainly won’t be able to catch so I assume he and Soler platoon in LF. Almora will make the roster as a defensive replacement for Schwarber/Soler, who combine to make what might be the worst defensive LF in the game. Russell and Rizzo are locked at their spots, Contreras will be the every day catcher with Montero backing him up.

That leaves Baez, Bryant, Zobrist, Heyward to find spots at 2B/3B/CF/RF. I’d personally play Baez at 3B, Zobrist at 2B, Bryant at CF, Heyward in RF. RF is the toughest OF spot in Wrigley because of the day game sun, wind, and dimensions in both fair and foul territory so I think the Cubs would really prefer to keep Heyward there. I also think Bryant could be as good, if not better, in center than Fowler and the Cubs turned Fowler into a pretty good CF. Obviously asking Bryant to play CF may be extreme, in which case just swap he and Heyward. I don’t think they want to remove Baez’s glove from the IF and Zobrist doesn’t have the arm for 3B and he’s pretty shaky in the OF.

Obviously there are some moves that can change all that. A Soler trade being the most obvious, I don’t think Soler benefits from a short side platoon situation and would be better used as trade bait. I’m also not convinced the Cubs won’t try to either extend Fowler, pursue a free agent outfielder (Josh Reddick perhaps) or trade for a true CF and leave Heyward in RF.

Theo/Hoyer/Maddon aren’t afraid to get weird and damn near everyone on the roster can play 2-3 different spots so absolutely nothing would shock me.

Sonny LMember since 2017
10 years ago

I disagree with the premise: today is day 799 of Javy Baez week. Javy Baez week kicked off in Denver 8/5/14 and it hasn’t stopped

swingofthings
10 years ago

Baez looks to be become a wholly different player than he was hyped to be as a prospect. Originally it was about massive power and middle-of-the-order potential but the speed was under-discussed and the defense was heavily questioned by scouts. Then batting average became an enormous question as the contact problems became more and more evident.

Now Baez looks like he could sustain a good average, with good but not 30+ homer power, still fairly poor OBP, with a game built around value in all areas like a Betts type.

rbemont
10 years ago

He was worth 2.7 fWAR this year.

He had a good NLDS, as compared to his teammates, who struggled quite a bit.

Now, he’s commonly referred to as “the best player on the field”.

It happens every year. Last year Daniel Murphy was babe Ruth. Year before Lorenzo Cain was the man, and if we keep going back Pablo Sandoval, etc.

Let’s keep it all in perspective.

Brians Sticky Sock
10 years ago
Reply to  rbemont

No, not “best player on the field”… people are calling him “the Cubs’ best defender”. I don’t think anybody has said he’s better than Bryant or Rizzo.

JediHoyer
10 years ago

Even that’s a stretch, Russell is a stud too. If Russell had Baez arm…

CosmoMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  JediHoyer

Russell is definitely the steadier of the two… so he’s got the higher floor, but Baez is capable of more, but sometimes does less. Heyward is in teh same ballpark as well.

rbemont
10 years ago

No. I’m watching the playoff games and the broadcasters are referring to him as the best player on the field, as are the guys on MLBN post-game shows.

It happens every year. Someone gets playoff hot and now that is their new “identity”.

RonnieDobbs
10 years ago
Reply to  rbemont

Albert Pujols only stole 5 bases in 2005! My point is, don’t use the wrong tools to evaluate a player. Even if those stats are the end-all-be-all pinnacle-of-evolution…

Why on earth would you use WAR for a guy that doesn’t play every day? Lack of walks and playing time are a death sentence in WAR.

On another note, Dan Murphy has my vote for best hitter in baseball at this point…

rbemont
10 years ago
Reply to  RonnieDobbs

450 PA in 142 games.

What I’m saying is “he isn’t the best player on the field”. Even prorating WAR for a full season. in the CHC-SFG series … the broadcasters and post-game commentators used that term, not me.

He had a good series and Rizzo didn’t hit, Bryant struck out 40% of the time, Russell forgot to bring a bat, Heyward performed his usual pop up or ground out routine, etc.

All you had to do to be the cubs best hitter this series was “hit better than the pitchers” (good luck).

My commentary is mostly in response to how overdone the broadcasting and commentating is based on nothing more than who has had recent success. I don’t get that.

JediHoyer
10 years ago
Reply to  RonnieDobbs

He produced more war because he didn’t get at bats and was a defensive replacement. More at bats at a below average line would not help with war.

johnforthegiants
10 years ago

Sorry to disappoint you if you were expecting me to come here and trash Baez but I became a fan of his this week, as much as I can be a fan of any non-Giant. The guy is so much fun to watch.

CosmoMember since 2020
10 years ago

Told ya you’d like him… I don’t think he’s ever going to be the best player on the team, but he has “it”.

Mahoney
10 years ago

The pitchers who made this guy look like a replacement level hitter are (were) really amazing.

https://twitter.com/williebloom/status/708394578777255936

victorvran
10 years ago

My favorite part about Javy is the crazy energy he plays with all the time. You can see it on his hr, his pick off at first, his tag of span, etc. etc. He’s just awesome to watch

JediHoyer
10 years ago
Reply to  victorvran

Unfortunately also saw it on a single off the wall…

RonnieDobbs
10 years ago
Reply to  victorvran

I’m not a fan of the “energy”, but I do like the baseball that he plays. Puig was also known for his energy… you don’t have to be a clown to be a good player.

OrangeJoos
10 years ago

Baez is the kind of player I am hoping Barreto comes out like, versitile middle infielder with a combination of speed, power and contact. The upside of Baez is always high so if Barreto can come out in that category it will be a major relief.

RonnieDobbs
10 years ago

Tagging is definitely a skill. I would imagine that Andrelton and Lindor are elite as well.

drewsylvaniaMember since 2019🏆 MVP
10 years ago

Adored this piece. I’d never have had the in-depth, visual knowledge of Baez without it. It’s the kind of knowledge we tend to only get by watching our local team. More, please.

chasfhMember since 2018
10 years ago

Javier Baez is so closely identified with the Theo Epstein Cubs that it is easy to forget that he was actually drafted by Jim Hendry in his last June rodeo in 2011. Of course, Javier Baez is one of the most toolsy players out there, so it makes total sense.