The Argument for J.T. Realmuto as Baseball’s Best Catcher
It feels like, any minute now, J.T. Realmuto will officially be on the move. He might even get officially traded while I’m busy writing this article. According to the latest reports, Realmuto is likely to be dealt to the Phillies, in exchange for a package including Sixto Sanchez and Jorge Alfaro (plus more). I don’t know what might be left for the teams to overcome. Again, press releases seem almost inevitable. With Sanchez as the centerpiece, the Marlins ought to be satisfied.
If and when this reaches a resolution, it’ll mark the end of a drawn-out sweepstakes. Realmuto always seemed like baseball’s most probable trade candidate. As much as the Marlins have wanted to keep him around, a contract extension requires interest from both parties, and Realmuto has wanted out. So a trade was going to happen. A trade involving some manner of top prospect was going to happen. What we didn’t know was where Realmuto would ultimately end up. He’s now linked to the Phillies. He’s been linked to the Reds. He’s been linked to the Braves, and the Padres, and the Dodgers, and the Rays, and even more teams on top of that. A whole lot of baseball has wanted J.T. Realmuto.
So let’s talk about that for a few minutes. For many of you, this will be simple review. But, why has Realmuto been in such demand? It’s because he might well be the best catcher in the game.
Catchers are understandably difficult to measure. I mean, we can measure the hitting part, and we can measure the baserunning part. We can measure the playing time, and we can measure some of the defensive stuff. The defensive numbers are estimates, however, and then there are all of those alleged leadership intangibles. I’m going to leave that latter bit to the teams. Let’s address everything else.
We’ll start with a table of three-year WAR per 600 plate appearances. Now, our catcher WAR at FanGraphs doesn’t try much to fold in defense. And so, into the WAR equation, I’ll insert defensive measurements from Baseball Prospectus. These include framing, blocking, throwing, and so on. Here are the top ten backstops since 2016:
| Catcher | PA | WAR/600 | 2019 Age |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Flowers | 991 | 6.6 | 33 |
| Yasmani Grandal | 1457 | 6.5 | 30 |
| Austin Barnes | 537 | 6.1 | 29 |
| Buster Posey | 1630 | 5.1 | 32 |
| Gary Sanchez | 1128 | 4.7 | 26 |
| Austin Hedges | 769 | 4.5 | 26 |
| Mike Zunino | 1032 | 4.5 | 28 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 1655 | 4.5 | 28 |
| Roberto Perez | 642 | 3.9 | 30 |
| Wilson Ramos | 1163 | 3.8 | 31 |
Realmuto shows up in eighth place. Or, more accurately, he’s tied for sixth. That’s good, but there’s a difference between sixth (or eighth) and first. Working in Realmuto’s favor is that he’s relatively young. He’s younger than four of the catchers in front of him. Also working in Realmuto’s favor is that, over the past three years, he leads all catchers in plate appearances. Realmuto’s been durable. But then, as well, there’s the pitch-framing thing. Pitch-framing is a major reason why Flowers, Grandal, and Barnes end up with numbers so high. I don’t doubt that pitch-framing exists, and that it can be significant. We’ve covered that before. But now look at a table of the same information again, only this time with pitch-framing removed from the math:
| Catcher | PA | WAR/600 | 2019 Age |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto | 1655 | 4.6 | 28 |
| Gary Sanchez | 1128 | 4.1 | 26 |
| Buster Posey | 1630 | 3.8 | 32 |
| Robinson Chirinos | 905 | 3.7 | 35 |
| Yasmani Grandal | 1457 | 3.6 | 30 |
| Willson Contreras | 1255 | 3.6 | 27 |
| Austin Barnes | 537 | 3.5 | 29 |
| Mike Zunino | 1032 | 3.2 | 28 |
| Wilson Ramos | 1163 | 3.2 | 31 |
| Kurt Suzuki | 1070 | 3.1 | 35 |
When you get rid of the framing component, Realmuto moves all the way up to first. Again, pitch-framing can’t just be outright ignored. It is a skill, and there are differences between catchers. Those differences add up to runs. But, according to Baseball Prospectus, the three-year difference in framing runs between Grandal and Realmuto is 73.5. How willing should we be to believe in a gap of almost eight wins? How well do we believe the math is isolating the catchers from their pitching staffs?
Simply put, accurate pitchers are easier to receive than wild pitchers. And while we don’t have that great a grasp on command, over the past three years, the Dodgers’ pitching staff ranks fourth in baseball in WAR. The Marlins’ pitching staff ranks 29th. I don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest that Realmuto hasn’t been catching the best pitchers around. Odds are, with better pitchers, he’d have better numbers. I’ll also note that, in 2016, in framing runs, Realmuto finished 37 behind the guy in first place. In 2017, he finished 27 behind the guy in first place. In 2018, he finished 16 behind the guy in first place. The gaps have been tightening anyway.
Realmuto probably isn’t the best receiver in either league. We can’t ignore that entirely. But based on everything we know other than framing, Realmuto’s been the best catcher over the past three years. He’s still young enough that he shouldn’t decline yet. Whether Realmuto belongs at No. 1 depends on how much stock you put in framing metrics, but teams behave with a certain amount of skepticism. The numbers themselves are possibly, if not probably exaggerated, and teams think they can improve pitch-framing anyhow. Consider the fact that Grandal had to settle for a one-year contract worth $18 million. The league doesn’t think of him as a six-win player.
So Realmuto has been good, and he’s been durable. He’s still in his 20s. Thanks to Statcast, we know he’s the fastest catcher around. Thanks to Statcast, we know he has the fastest pop time to second base. Are you willing to believe he might be even further underrated?
Historically, Realmuto has just been killed by Marlins Park. Something about it just hasn’t agreed with him. He’s been a far better hitter on the road, according to results, and according to expected results. Over the course of baseball history, almost no one has ever had such a dramatic home-field disadvantage. Because it’s not perfectly understood, we can’t just look at Realmuto’s numbers away from Miami and call it there, but, consider the following. Realmuto ranks fifth among catchers in three-year wRC+, at 115. But he ranks first among catchers in three-year *road* wRC+, at 137. His three-year road wRC+ ranks him in the 93rd percentile among all players. Maybe this comparison will help:
Three-year road wRC+:
- J.T. Realmuto, 137
- Bryce Harper, 134
- Manny Machado, 102
I was surprised to see Machado’s number. I don’t know what to make of that yet. But, his isn’t the point that matters here. Realmuto has a park factor built into his calculations, but that’s the same park factor that every Marlins hitter has gotten. It’s possible that Realmuto’s personal park factor ought to be more severe. Marlins Park might make it harder for him to perform than everyone else. So Realmuto could disproportionately benefit from doing his hitting elsewhere. That’s already been true for a while.
Realmuto is a young catcher who stays on the field, and, when he’s on the field, he can catch, he can throw, he can hit, and he can run. He might not leave Miami and win the MVP in the way that Christian Yelich did, but, playing for the Marlins has meant Realmuto hasn’t drawn enough attention. He is an excellent regular player — quite possibly the best regular in either league at his position — and getting him would make an impact comparable to getting Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. Maybe not in the immediate headlines, but more on the field. And it’s what happens on the field that matters the most.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
It’s so amazing that in the Steamer projections, 3 of the top 4 position players on the Phillies (Realmuto, Segura, McCutchen) are offseason acquisitions … and the Harper/Machado dance is still ongoing.
To save anyone else curious the trouble of looking it up:
Gary Sanchez, 3yr road wRC+: 134
The idea of the Yankees “including” him in a deal for Realmulto always seemed silly. Passed balls notwithstanding, why swap him for a slightly older, more expensive version of himself?
I think the idea came from the fact that people view JTR as a much more viable long term answer defensively behind the plate. Sanchez may be a DH before long, and the Yanks will already have a logjam there, especially if they were in on Machado.
its almost like he is a really good player, but yankees fans still want him shot out of cannon for some reason
Send him to the Cubs, Sanchez is a badass player
And one with less team control, at that. Sanchez still has four years of control before free agency. Realmuto has two.
Also, does anybody else think that Sanchez might actually block well if he did a Russell Martin and got down on a knee instead of squatting? Most of his problems seem to come from a complete inability to get his body down fast enough.
id trade gary sanchez in a heart beat. Because people would overpay for him like crazy. He may be the worst defensive catcher in the game. Its so bad i cant watch sometimes. I fear for his safety some times.
c’mon now, you know that isnt true right? you have to? i hope
It’s almost as if you didn’t read the charts that are in this very article, which show he’s one of the best catchers in baseball even once defense and his horribly unlucky 2018 are considered.
It never made sense. Sanchez’s mistakes are high profile, but this guy has the highest offensive upside of any catcher in major league baseball and whose plate production isn’t that bad. And he’s got a great arm, and he’s an adequate framer. You don’t give up on guys like this.
As a Yankee fan, the Yankee fandom’s hatred for Sanchez just makes no sense to me. His 2018 issues notwithstanding, you’re talking about a guy who can reasonably be projected to hit 40 homers with .280/.350/.530 production with excellent skills at controlling the running game, good pitch framing, and more passed balls than you’d like. And four years of team control. Like… why in the world would you want to get rid of such a player? Who else can put a middle-of-the-order bat out there from the catcher position?
His BABIP was .197 last year! Like… what in the world?
I’m a Yankee fan too – and I can understand the hatred, even if I don’t agree with it, for a number of reasons:
1) The game where he pretty much did cost them the win by jogging to first on a grounder (though it was later revealed that he had a bad hamstring). I think there was also a game where an opposing runner scored from second on wild pitch or passed ball because he was slow getting to the ball.
2) He is really slow, and that’s just a big turnoff to some people.
3) The passed balls just look really ugly. The framing more than offsets it, but you don’t really notice framing. You really do notice the passed balls.
4) I’d guess that the majority of Yankee fans don’t even know what BABIP is, let alone be able to see that his 2018 was just absurdly unlucky from a balls in play standpoint. Thus they think was just legitimately awful at the plate.
They do the same thing to stanton too! this team has a really bad fanbase (im a yankees fan but i dislike the majority of fellow fans)
Given some of the packages previously suggested for Realmuto (from the Mets, Dodgers, Padres), did Miami ultimately get a good return? Seems to carry a decent amount of risk in Sanchez, and not a particularly high ceiling for Alfaro.
I mean, Alfaro is a major league average catcher with a chance for a league average bat. That’s a valuable player right there. Sixto is risky, sure, but don’t forget TINSTAAPP. There aren’t any “safe” pitching prospects and Sixto is a true blue-chipper. Quality first and second piece for sure, with some extra gravy thrown on as well. Miami should be very happy with their return.
There’s certainly the potential for the return to be solid, especially if Sanchez does turn out to be a TOR pitcher. But I remember seeing people suggest trades like Realmuto for Syndergaard (or Andujar+ in a 3 way), or for Clay Bellinger, or for Nimmo and Rosario. The word was that Miami wanted controllable young MLB players; Alfaro fits that, sure, but not with a ton of upside. And Sanchez is very much TBD at the MLB level (if he makes it). It just feels like a package that could easily turn into a backup catcher and a setup man. Given how the Yelich trade turned out, I guess I thought the Marlins would be looking for more certainty in the return.
I just think it shows that Miami’s demands for a very good but not elite player, who’s only under control for 2 seasons (at a very low but still not insignificant salary) were much too high.
You don’t give up a good major league player with 2 years of control and get back a package including a certainly good MLB-quality player with many years of control. The whole point is that Miami couldn’t get those deals done with the Mets because they wanted back Nimmo, Conforto, or Rosario, all of whom have more years of control and very high ceilings. I mean, if you were a GM, would you trade a young, good outfielder with 2 seasons of service time plus more for a young, good catcher with 4 seasons of service time? It just doesn’t make sense.
Miami got back as much as they could. A true top tier prospect, a high-floor MLBer with a chance to be above average, and a couple lottery tickets. Asking for any more than that is stepping away from reality.
Sixto is a blue chipper, but not because he is eapecially “safe”. Pitching prospects like Forrest Whitley are seen as having a significantly higher floor than Sanchez.
But man, that Pedro comparison…
its a good package, but when you hear about the reports about victor robles or kyle tucker being offered at one point it may dampen that a bit. whether those offers were actually made or not is a different story. when the biggest part of the deal is a pitching prospect im usually a little scared about it because they are so risky, but sixto is at least a top 20 prospect so it at least looks good from that perspective in that they got a very good asset, but i would rather have had the elite positional prospects personally
incredible return if you ask me. 2 #1’s as alfaro was there old #1. Sixto is #6 overall prospect in baseball with a ton of value. Plus more prospects and international cap space. crazy return if you ask me. Great trade for marlins and phillies.
I had seen/heard only that Miami wanted Tucker, but Houston wouldn’t include him. That was the sticking point in the MIA-HOU negotiations, or least what was understood generally by Astros reporters/fans.
i saw a report from early december or so from heyman saying that the astros were willing to part with tucker, but i guess that was either untrue or things changed
It’s better than Brinson (55+) & Ortiz (50-) for Lucroy in 2016. Lucroy was equally good (coming off a 6.2 fwar season and in the midst of a 4.6 fwar season), but 2 years older than Realmuto is now and only had 1.5 years’ control vs. Realmuto’s 2.
Sixto is one of those pitchers where (a) if he stays healthy, the chances of him being a #1 or a #2 are really very good, and (b) it sure doesn’t look like he’s going to stay healthy. Nobody has stuff like this in the minors except Whitley and maybe Alex Reyes/Kopech. If you want a guy who is less likely to bust because of injury like Kyle Wright (who might not have even been available, anyway) you’re going to need to accept a lower ceiling. And many of the other packages discussed were fantasies from the Marlins’ end.
Where I do think you can criticize them: I think I would have preferred a Dodgers or Padres package with more volume to it, but if you’re looking to just get one 60 instead of a 55 and some 50s, this is probably the best they could do.
Whitley, Reyes, and Kopech are all pretty good comps for Sixto at the moment, assuming the two TJ recipients recover fully. That said, it’s a bit of a yellow flag that the Phillies traded him and another notable prospect for 2 years of Realmuto; Kopech was a back-end top 100 guy with obvious physical talent but also injury & character concerns when he was the second piece in a trade for 4 years of Sale. It’s worrying that Philadelphia was willing to deal him for relatively little when outside lists have him as a consensus top-25 prospect. Sixto, meanwhile, is not insignificantly smaller than all three of Kopech, Reyes, and Whitley.
Yelich also had surprising home / road splits during his time with the Marlins: 115 wRC+ at home compared to 128 wRC+ on the road.
Really not surprising considering that home park was Marlins Park. That thing is a death trap for flyball production, especially balls hit the other way.
wRC+ takes into account the ballpark. In other words, if every ballpark affected a given player the same as it affected the league as a whole, the player would have the same wRC+ in every park (and thus would have the same wRC+ at home and on the road).
What’s interesting is when there’s a big difference in wRC+, not when there’s a big difference in stats like OPS which are not park-adjusted.
But I don’t know if this is really a huge difference. Want to see a big difference? Compare Arenado’s home/road wRC+ from 2018.
I don’t agree that follows, because the point of using a park-adjusted stat such as wRC+ is that it adjusts for the overall impact of something like “death trap for flyball production”.
That doesn’t mean that the impact on each particular player’s batted ball profile is the same. The home / road wRC+ splits while Marlins for Ozuna (125 / 104) and Stanton (158 / 132) were both more in favor of home than we’d expect on average. Looking at recent seasons, the league-wide non-pitcher home/road split for wRC+ falls into a range of about 5 to 10 points each year, so that’s what I’m viewing as a reasonable baseline.
When I saw the title of this thread I immediately thought that the next FG article in the queue will be titled ‘The Argument For The Sun as The Biggest Star Closest to Earth”. Even with all the great stats to back it up, Realmuto is the best catcher in the MLB almost by default. Compare Realmuto to the hey days of Posey, Mauer, etc and there might be a true argument there.
That’s what I was thinking, too. I think most people accept Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball.
Grandal.
Framing matters to me.
Looking at their best performances by 27 y..o season.
Posey ‘s best seasons by wrc+ : 164, 142, 135, 134
Mauer’s best seasons by wrc+: 170, 141, 135, 133
Realmuto’s best seasons by wrc+: 126, 111, 107, 89
Current version of Realmuto is much closer to ’19 Posey than ’14 Posey.
Great point tung,,twista,,,
Mauer,and Posey are future HOFers.
JT is a solid all around catcher.
His worth,elevated by a weak pool,of present day catching talent.
I agree with the main point of what you’re saying, but I think you have to give Grandal the edge because he adds so much value with framing that Realmuto doesn’t.
I think that if Gary Sanchez doesn’t put up a .197 BABIP again there might be some discussion here.
For what it’s worth, Posey’s projected to be better (per Steamer), and Sanchez, Grandal, and Perez aren’t all that far behind.
These tables (particularly the first) do a great job of showing how ridiculous Grandal’s contract is.
And/or how unbelievable the framing numbers are.
How many of us would truly believe that “the three-year difference in framing runs between Grandal and Realmuto is 73.5”?
Even if you take framing out entirely, Grandal has been the 5th most valuable catcher in baseball over the last three seasons, worth 3.6 WAR/600 PA. How is that production only worth one year and $18.5M?
My guess is he got some multi-year offers but at a lower AAV and preferred the one-year deal, not only because he thinks his offensive numbers will improve, but maybe also because at time goes on and we learn more about framing, his value will increase.
Well he turned down a 4-year/$60MM deal from the Mets. I know that’s less (AAV wise), but yeesh – I like a guaranteed gig for four seasons.
And we’re talking only a $3MM difference.. so I dunno what he was thinking.
The Marlins are going to be so bad for so long. What is this now – 4 All Stars including an MVP and perrenial MVP candidate – in two offseasons? Alfaro or a rushed Brinson might be the highest ceiling players they’ve acquired, neither is particularly good yet, and there’s not a whole lot else…Osiris Johnson maybe?
So I agree that there may be untapped upside to Realmuto offensively, that his batted ball profile might not quite work in Miami. His home/road splits are so weird and so consistent, I think there might be something to it.
The framing thing? Don’t get your hopes up.
When you sort by pop time, you can then sort by velocity, and MLB’s best catcher ( Tyler Flowers) with frame apparently throws the ball 74.7mph. Wtf?
The Phillies got fleeced.
I am waiting to see if the Phils sign him to an extension before the season, because I feel their is a very good chance that Realmuto is still looking forward to free agency. Signing him now will be easiest.
Great write up Jeff! Excited to see the true value of catcher here including defense and no just hitting!! This could be the beginning of something beautiful here on this front.
So much of Realmuto’s value comes from base running that I’d be wary of rapid decline given the position he plays.