The Braves are Salvaging a Salary Dump

Two months ago, almost on the nose, the Padres concluded their offseason by picking up Craig Kimbrel. It was a pretty big move between the Padres and the Braves, but the players of real consequence were Kimbrel and Matt Wisler. Of what was left, there were either long-shots or money exchanges. Onto the Padres, the Braves dumped Melvin Upton. Onto the Braves, the Padres dumped Carlos Quentin and Cameron Maybin. This was about financials, more than talent. The teams wanted rid of those contracts.

In a way, Upton and Maybin sort of canceled out. Both were frustrating center fielders with ceilings higher than their recent performances. Upton needed to get away from Atlanta. Maybin needed to get away from San Diego. We’ll see what Upton is able to do, when he’s back and healthy. But Maybin was slotted in immediately as a regular. And while I intend this more as a fun fact than as a cheap shot, I’ll note that, at the moment, Maybin has a higher WAR than Wil Myers, and a higher WAR than Matt Kemp. He’s hitting better than he ever has before, and now, after rolling the dice, it looks like the Braves might have a real center fielder for a couple of years.

Maybin, of course, is no stranger to missing time. And it has still been just two months, and Maybin’s performed well in spurts before. But he’s a former top prospect who’s only 28, and his stat line is different from usual. The first thing that stands out to me: Maybin isn’t hitting nearly so many grounders anymore. He’s played 44 games with the Braves, so let’s look at his career 44-game rolling groundball-rate averages:

You see the dip, toward the right — that’s what’s been happening recently. This isn’t completely unprecedented. There’s that other dip, in early 2011. But, for one thing, it’s apparent this is uncharacteristic. And, we can compare what Maybin’s done lately to what he did over that stretch in late 2010 and early 2011. Lately, his contact rate has been far higher. He’s spent considerably more time going to the opposite field, and his strikeout rate is lower. And, you know, in those two months between 2010/11, Maybin posted a 107 wRC+. He has hit before. He’s hitting now, a bit differently.

What can we trace this to? When you play for a new team, you get a new hitting coach. So Maybin’s got a new coach, and said coach is responsible for some alterations made to Maybin’s swing and approach. Maybin actually first started listening to Kevin Seitzer before he was even officially a Brave, but then, by coincidence, a few weeks later, they were on the same payroll. And Seitzer has worked on the Seitzer stuff — trying to live up the middle and the other way. It doesn’t work for everybody, but the evidence would suggest it’s working for Maybin. He has a career-high wRC+. He has a career-high contact rate. He has a career-high line-drive rate. He has a career-high opposite-field rate. Almost by accident, he has a career-high home-run rate. And a career-low first-pitch-swing rate. Maybin’s been one to try adjustments in the past, but this one in particular, evidently, sings to him.

Talking about some of the changes:

“I’m long,” said Maybin. “I’ve got long limbs and long arms and one of the things they’ve really, really tried to focus on me with is making sure I keep my arms; keep my levers short. I had a tendency to arm bar at times, I still do it, but [I’m working now] to really keep my arms close to my body, being short, continue to be athletic.”

Extending his arms when he began to swing greatly slowed down the time it took his bat to get through the strike zone. By bringing his arms in close it made his swing compact and quick through that zone. Maybin found that the leverage he gained with this adjustment not only helped him spray the ball all over the field, but increased the power it produced.

An area of great change is Maybin against the inside pitch. Used to be, he’d hit grounders on more than half the balls in play on pitches in. In the early going this year, he’s at a third, demonstrating a better ability to get around with a shorter, more compact swing. But Maybin isn’t limited; he’s hit line drives all over.

Swing analysis is complicated, but it is possible to simplify by just examining follow-throughs. A different swing will be reflected by a different follow-through, and here we can compare 2014 Maybin and 2015 Maybin on some similar pitches.

Inside

2014

2015

This year, you see a much higher finish, suggesting an elevated bat path. A year ago, Maybin rolled over on the pitch. Here, in 2015, you see evidence of firm contact.

Low

2014

2015

Here, in 2015, you see greater force, with more hip and upper-body rotation. And it’s another firm, high finish, with 2014 looking more like a one-strike slap attempt.

High

2014

2015

These are fairly similar, but look at the hands — in 2014, they’re roughly parallel with the letters. In 2015, it’s more like the shoulders. Just more evidence of swinging a little more up, instead of so level. This would help to explain the increased frequency of balls hit in the air.

Outside

2014

2015

This is a little misleading — I’ve seen a few Maybin swings at outside pitches in 2015. Some look like this, and some look much shorter, with Maybin content to drive the ball over the second baseman. That would be the Seitzer way, but even here you can see something. In 2015, there’s more tilt to Maybin’s upper body. It’s the same story about the swing path. Much of the time, he’s swinging shorter. And much of the time, he’s swinging more up, and less level.

Changing the bat path means Maybin is meeting the baseball as it descends. That should lead to more air balls, and in fact to this point it has. What’s perhaps most remarkable is that Maybin didn’t join up with Seitzer until basically the start of the regular season, so they didn’t have spring training to work through new instruction in a low-pressure setting. They’re having to make changes on the fly, but Maybin isn’t being held back by any stubbornness, and as mentioned, he was open to Seitzer before they even worked together. Adjustments have happened fast, and if Maybin can stay on the field, he should work toward submitting them to muscle memory. He’s already a lot of the way there. He’s already shown the ability to adjust to pitches he can drive, and to pitches he can knock to shallow right.

A healthy Maybin is a capable center fielder. He’s not a hacker, and he makes a roughly average amount of contact. He possesses legitimate power, and with more of a line-drive swing instead of a groundball swing, Maybin could end up hitting enough to be a quality regular player. He’s already two months of the way to a six-month goal, so all the early signs are promising. As always, not all the early signs end up the same as the later signs. Maybin has to keep from falling back into habits, and he needs to keep himself off the disabled list. But so far, so good, which isn’t bad for a salary dump. To think, a lot of people preferred the Braves’ side of the trade before.