The Royals Are For Real, and They’re Breathing Down the Guardians’ Necks

If you checked the standings on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, you may have noticed something rather novel: The Royals were tied for first place atop the AL Central, depriving the Guardians of sole possession for the first time since April 13. The moment was fleeting, because on Wednesday afternoon Kansas City lost to Cleveland after taking the first three games of the series. Nonetheless, the team has been the AL’s hottest over the past two months, is currently positioned to end its nine-year postseason drought, and has a very real shot at capturing the division title.

The Royals have been above .500 since April 6, and they’ve had just one calendar month with a losing record (12-15 in June). They were 18-13 in March and April, 17-11 in May, 13-10 in July, and are 15-10 in August. A dreadful 4-12 stretch knocked them 10 games behind the Guardians as of June 25, but they’ve gone an AL-best 32-21 (.604) since, half a game ahead of the Astros (32-22). This team is for real.

After allowing 11 runs to the Phillies in back-to-back games over the weekend — the first of which happened after Kansas City pulled within a game of the Guardians in the standings — the Royals rolled into Cleveland and swept a doubleheader on Monday, overcoming early deficits in both games. Down 2-0 in the opener, MJ Melendez’s three-run homer and Bobby Witt Jr.’s solo shot powered the Royals to a 4-3 win, and after Alec Marsh surrendered three first-inning runs (two unearned) in the nightcap, they chipped away, with Salvador Perez breaking a 4-4 tie with a solo home run in the fifth and then hitting a grand slam in the sixth, keying a 9-4 win. On Tuesday night, after starter Michael Lorenzen exited the game in the second inning due to a left hamstring strain, five relievers held the Guardians to a total of two hits and one run over 7 1/3 innings, and trade deadline acquisition Paul DeJong clubbed his fifth homer in 19 games en route to a 6-1 win. Alas, on Wednesday the Royals carried a 5-2 lead into the seventh, but starter Michael Wacha and the bullpen faltered, yielding four runs in what became a 7-5 defeat.

Even with the loss, the Royals are 75-59 (.560), good for the AL’s fourth-best record and the second Wild Card spot, two games behind the Orioles. Their 23-14 (.622) record and .607 Pythagenpat winning percentage since the All-Star break both rank as the AL’s best, and while their foray into first place was brief, they’re still just one game back. They’re not doing it with smoke and mirrors, either. Their +105 run differential and .581 Pythagenpat winning percentage both rank second in the AL, behind only the Yankees. Their improvement in run differential relative to last year — when they tied the franchise record with 106 losses — represents the majors’ largest gain:

Tuesday marked the first time since 2016 that the Royals even spent a day in first place after June 15, and the first since their World Series-winning season in ’15 that they held first for at least a day in August. They haven’t finished above .500 since that season, but if they maintain their current pace, they’ll win 91 games. That would represent a 35-win increase from last year’s total, which would tie them for the largest improvement in the Division Era (since 1969):

Even if they don’t quite reach 91 wins, the Royals still have a shot at the 1989 Orioles’ mark for the largest year-to-year improvement by a 100-loss team, and they could make like half of these teams and qualify for the postseason. Their 87.5% Playoff Odds — up from a 13.5% chance (and a 76-win forecast) at the outset of the season — strongly suggest they’re on their way.

The Royals have improved by leaps and bounds on both sides of the ball. Their 0.71 runs per game gain in scoring (from 4.17 to 4.88) is the majors’ third largest (behind only those of the Yankees and Diamondbacks), while their 1.21 runs per game reduction in runs allowed (from 5.30 to 4.10) is the largest; they’re one of only two teams that have cut their average runs allowed by more than a run per game. (The much-improved A’s are the other.) All of this is a tremendous validation of the work executive vice president/general manager J.J. Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro have done over the past two seasons. Picollo of course had his hands in the team’s player development under a variety of titles during his decade and a half working under predecessor Dayton Moore.

Consider the rotation. Between free agents Wacha and Seth Lugo, mid-2023 acquisition Cole Ragans, and a much-improved Brady Singer, the Royals have four of the top 15 AL qualifiers in ERA and WAR, and four of the top 20 in FIP:

Ragans, the only high-strikeout hurler of the bunch, has emerged as one of the game’s most dominant pitchers, someone who figures to receive Cy Young support, though the award appears to be Tarik Skubal’s to lose. Beyond the rankings above, Ragans additionally has the AL’s second-highest strikeout rate among starters (29.0%) and the fifth-highest K-BB% (20.6%). The rotation as a whole is second in the league in ERA (3.62) and WAR (14.0) and third in FIP (3.73); crucially, it is also second in innings (760.1), which has helped paper over a mediocre bullpen that ranks just 12th in ERA (4.30), 10th in FIP (4.16), and ninth in WAR (2.0). It’s a groundball-heavy staff (43.2%, second in the AL) that boasts the league’s lowest home run rate (0.95 per nine), though having a homer-suppressing ballpark doesn’t hurt.

The staff received a shot in the arm from Picollo’s work ahead of the July 30 trade deadline. Lorenzen isn’t exactly an impact starter, but he’s kicked in a 1.85 ERA and 4.20 FIP in 24 1/3 innings since being acquired from the Rangers; he did land on the injured list on Wednesday, as an MRI showed a Grade 2 strain of that hamstring, and the expectation is that he’ll be out two to three weeks. Reliever Lucas Erceg, who was stolen from the A’s and has since claimed the closer role, was the losing pitcher on Wednesday afternoon, but the run he was charged with was his first as a Royal following 11 straight scoreless outings totaling 12 1/3 innings; similarly, the two inherited runners he allowed to score ended a streak of 11 he’d stranded since the trade. Oh well, an 0.68 ERA, 1.00 FIP, and five additional years of club control will have to do for that particular deadline addition.

On the other side of the ball, the Royals are in a virtual tie for third in the AL in scoring (4.88 runs per game) and rank fifth in wRC+ (102). Those rankings are the product of a massive improvement from the first half to the second:

The Royals lead the AL in scoring since the break and are second in wRC+. That improvement is driven by a 36-point increase in BABIP (from .279 to .315) and a 30-point increase in ISO (from .159 to .189). The big deal is that they’ve gone from having two regulars and two part-timers producing at a better-than-average clip to three regulars and five part-timers doing so:

You knew Witt was having an MVP-caliber year — one that could feature 10.0 WAR (he’s at 9.3) and his second straight 30-30 campaign (he’s at 28 homers and 27 steals) — but did you realize he’s put up video game numbers for nearly a quarter of the season? It’s true. His barrel and hard-hit rates have remained consistent from half to half, but his 94.7 mph average exit velocity since the break is up 2.1 mph relative to the first half, while his pull rate has increased by about five percentage points (from 31.7% to 36.4%) and his xSLG has increased from .599 to .659. Good stuff.

Perez — who’s started 77 games at catcher, 31 at first, and 11 at DH — continues to rake, and Pasquantino and corner outfielders Melendez and Renfroe have escaped the realm of the Replacement Level Killers, with Blanco providing some potent support when the aforementioned outfielders have been sidelined. Melendez missed the first eight games of the second half due to a left ankle sprain, while Renfroe strained his right hamstring on Saturday and landed on the IL. Additionally, DeJong has been absolutely on fire since coming over from the White Sox on July 30 and taking the majority of the playing time at third base. The lineup still has dead spots in center field (Isbel and Hampson) and whichever of second base or third Garcia is playing on a given day; beyond the fact that the 24-year-old Garcia is a former Top-100 prospect with a good glove and a bright future, I’m not sure why they can’t roll with Massey at second and DeJong at third on a regular basis.

Still, that’s a small quibble. The Royals may have their weaknesses, but this is a fun and competitive team with a chance to make history, and one that we’re quite likely to be seeing in October.