The Royals Should Be Buyers, Sort Of

Winning a championship is great — for about 48 hours or however long it takes for the parade to end. Then the page turns to the next season and it’s time to figure out how to win all over again. The Kansas City Royals just won their first championship in 30 seasons less than a year ago, but right now, it’s not enough. If the 2015 championship is the only one they win with this current core of players, they’ll eventually be able to look back with fondness on the achievement. Now isn’t the time for reflection, however: it’s the time to make every effort to add even more glory to this era of Royals baseball.

Unfortunately, the Royals haven’t put themselves in a strong position to contend in 2016. They’re at an even .500 record despite a negative-33 run differential and currently sit nine games behind first-place Cleveland. Our playoff odds currently give them just a 1-in-50 chance of making it to the divisional series. If they “buy” over the next week and a half, it stands to reason they can increase their odds slightly, but they face an unavoidably great uphill climb. In order to claim a wild-card spot, they’ll have to leapfrog five other teams.

It’s certainly possible that they can pull off a surprise run in the second half – the Royals have made an impressive habit of foiling projections in recent years, after all — but if I were the one calling the shots in Kansas City, I’d find it irresponsible to make moves focused solely on 2016 success.

Note how I phrased that, though: I didn’t say that I wouldn’t be a “buyer” this month, only that I wouldn’t focus on 2016.

There’s a maddening and inaccurate oversimplification which inevitably occurs each July that there are two groups of teams: those trying to win now and those who should sell off all players without long-term value. The Royals shouldn’t be buying for 2016, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be “buyers” in the current trade market.

One could make a well-reasoned argument that they should be selling hard right now. They have a plethora of valuable players – Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Wade Davis, the injured Mike Moustakas — in position to become free agents after the 2017 season. There are plenty of precedents for breaking up a core while there’s still time to exchange them for prospects — the Braves’ recent sale of Jason Heyward, Craig Kimbrel, and Justin Upton representing the most recent example. However, I found the strategy to be ill-conceived when the Braves employed it and I’d find it to be even more ill-conceived for this Royals team.

Developing successful roster cores is the primary goal in team-building, and it’s exceedingly rare for it to come together as well as this Royals group has over the past two seasons. This isn’t a group on the verge of aging and falling apart, but instead a successful group that has the potential for at least one final run. If the Royals are still .500 and flailing a year from now, I’d advise them to cash in their chips. Their chief objective right now, however, should be doing everything they can to make sure that doesn’t happen. Which leads to a question: what can the team do right now to improve their chances of winning in 2017 (and beyond)?

Their roster is not without obvious holes. Although Whit Merrifield has delighted at times this season, he’s also shown that second base continues to be a weakness for the team. They could also stand to upgrade their right-field situation and will need to find a new way to use the designated-hitter role once Kendrys Morales moves on after this season. By and large, though, these are complementary roles that need reinforcements – the core of the lineup is secure. The area which requires the most attention is their rotation.

As it currently stands, Kansas City’s rotation for 2017 looks something like this: Yordano Ventura, Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, maybe Jason Vargas?, and a spot to be filled by Chris Young? a prospect like Alec Mills? or the perpetually injured Kyle Zimmer? That’s an untenable situation which will need to be addressed in the offseason. As you may have heard, though, the starting-pitching market will be exceptionally weak this winter. As a result, the Royals should be in the market right now for starting pitchers with multiple years of team control remaining.

It makes little-to-no sense for the team to bring in rental starters like Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson, or Andrew Cashner, but there are a few starters who could be available in the next week and a half who should be of interest to the Royals, including: Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore, Chris Archer, Julio Teheran, Sonny Gray, Ervin Santana, and Michael Pineda. Let’s run down the list in roughly the reverse order of desirability.

Santana is 33 years old and owed $27 million over the next two seasons. His upside is non-existent but he does provide value as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater and did have some success with the Royals when he was with them in 2013, for whatever that’s worth.  Also, as a result of his contract status and age, the asking price for Santana will likely be the lowest among this group of pitchers.

Pineda will be a free agent after the 2017 season and has struggled mightily throughout his career with injuries and inconsistent performance. However, he’s just 27 years old and has shown flashes of brilliance. His Achilles’ heel on the mound has been home runs and it’s tempting to suppose that moving away from Yankee Stadium to the spacious confines of Kauffman Field could provide a huge boost to his ability to consistently be effective.

Another pitcher who has struggled significantly this season is Sonny Gray. He’s just 26 and has three remaining seasons of team control, but I’d be extremely wary of pursuing a pitcher whose value has dropped so precipitously this season. No one knows Gray better than the Athletics, so if they’re opting to sell this low on him, it’d be pertinent to wonder why.

The Braves keep saying Teheran is unavailable. Maybe he is and maybe he isn’t. Jeff Sullivan recently made the case that the Braves should trade him, but the asking price will be sky-high for good reason — he’s 25 and won’t be a free agent until after the 2020 season. The Royals’ top prospect, shortstop Raul Mondesi, is a poor match for a system which already has Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies in the upper minors and it’s hard to imagine anyone from the next tier of prospects getting this trade done. This is probably a non-starter.

Which finally brings us to the Rays’ trio: Archer, Moore, and Odorizzi. They are 27, 27, and 26, respectively, and all under contract through the 2019 season. Moore’s contract contains the added bonus of consisting entirely of club options over the next three seasons, so the team would be able to move on at any time if necessary. Could the Royals and Rays be lined up for another prospect-for-starting-pitcher swap?

The Royals have made it a habit to load their pitching staff with fly-ball pitchers due to their massive outfield and the stellar defenders who patrol it. As home-run rates rise across the league, this plan is becoming increasingly risky, but the stadium considerations still may give them justifiable cause to value fly-ball pitchers like Moore or Odorizzi in such a manner which increases the likelihood that there’s a match. Additionally, Archer’s tremendous success a year ago may justifiably set his price tag well above that of his two teammates. Any of the Rays’ three could be a viable trade target for the Royals, but Moore and Odorizzi stand out as the two strongest matches.

Winning is hard. The Royals have done it once and now they face the unenviable task of trying to find a way to repeat. It’s exceedingly unlikely to happen this year, but they’re in a position to begin preparing for a final push with their championship core. Actively scouring the market for non-rental players is the best play for the team in advance of the August 1st trade deadline.