The Team Projections and You (American League)

Hello! Welcome to a post with 15 polls in it. Ordinarily, when you click on a FanGraphs post, it’s the author who’s done all the work. In this case, the author has done some of the work, but the work is to be completed by you, as this is an audience exercise. I’ll explain.

You know about the Steamer team projections. We use them a lot. They’re a super tool, for purposes of discussing, say, the highly active White Sox, or the highly active Padres, or the highly active Dodgers, or the so far highly inactive Orioles. When analyzing any transaction, we want to have an idea of how a given team looks, and the linked page makes it really easy. We’re always trying to project; Steamer has already projected. The depth charts have already depth charted.

But! Sometimes people disagree with the projections. Sometimes certain teams might seem way off. That’s what I want to gauge, here, with what I think are pretty easily understandable polls. There’s a poll here for each American League team, and I want to know what you think of their projections. I understand this is just based on Steamer, since we don’t yet have full ZiPS, and I also understand there are moves yet to be made. Max Scherzer won’t be a free agent forever. But I want to know what you think right now, based on conditions right now. I think there might be a lot to be learned from this. Alternatively, maybe there’s nothing to be learned from this. But the most important thing is, here’s content, and nothing has happened in baseball for like a week and a half, so, participate, please. I want to know where you think we’re wrong. People are always saying we’re wrong! This should be fun.

Let us proceed in alphabetical order. Later, the National League post. It would be funny to only have an American League post.

Angels

• Projection: 84-78
• Depth chart page

Reasons for optimism

The Angels have the best player in the world! They also have a player with the talent to be one of the best players in the world, in Josh Hamilton, and there’s depth in the rotation with the surprising Matt Shoemaker and with Andrew Heaney coming over.

Reasons for pessimism

The best pitcher on the team will miss the start of the season, as he’s coming off a major injury. You don’t know if Shoemaker might turn back into a pumpkin, and, well, did the league partially figure out Mike Trout? How is he going to respond to all the pitches up in the zone? Also, there are probably other reasons.

Astros

• Projection: 76-86
• Depth chart page

Reasons for optimism

There’s growth potential in a lot of places, and maybe this year Jon Singleton won’t be completely terrible. A couple of talented breakthrough pitchers lead the rotation, and free agency has made the bullpen significantly better.

Reasons for pessimism

Jose Altuve won’t do that again. Maybe Jon Singleton will do that again. The rotation still isn’t particularly deep, and relievers are both volatile and susceptible to midseason trades. Matt Dominguez remains a starting player, so.

Athletics

• Projection: 82-80
• Depth chart page

Reasons for optimism

Hard to find a deeper starting rotation, once A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker return to some semblance of health and availability. The numbers are really rather high on Marcus Semien, and Brett Lawrie has had untold potential pooling just below the surface. Did you know Stephen Vogt is a good hitter? Right now the A’s only look bad at second base.

Reasons for pessimism

Goodbye, everybody. Why should Oakland be any more lucky with Lawrie than Toronto was? Why should we think the rotation will actually hold up? Semien has yet to hit in the majors. Billy Butler’s coming off a bad year, and still it’s almost impossible to want to count on Scott Kazmir.

Blue Jays

• Projection: 84-78
• Depth chart page

Reasons for optimism

The Jays made some of the biggest additions in Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson, and Martin will also help to improve the whole pitching staff. Michael Saunders is a real solid player when he’s able to be an active player, and there’s reason to believe he’s not hopelessly fragile. Devon Travis might be able to fill the void at second base. Marcus Stroman is stupid good, and Aaron Sanchez, if nothing else, might be an absolutely untouchable reliever.

Reasons for pessimism

Well, Martin’s in his 30s, and Donaldson got rather curiously sold by a team you’d think would highly value him, and Saunders has been hurt a bunch, and…the rotation thins out fast. Neither first base nor second base are currently occupied by what you might call good baseball players.

Indians

• Projection: 85-77
• Depth chart page

Reasons for optimism

One of the most underrated rotations in baseball also picked up a solid-upside arm in Gavin Floyd. So, if Floyd can pitch, the Indians also have depth, which every team needs at some point. The defense here ought to be better, and if Brandon Moss returns well from his injury, he’ll be a real impact bat.

Reasons for pessimism

Or, Moss won’t return well from injury. There aren’t actually known entities in the rotation, aside from Corey Kluber. If Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn are just done, that hurts, and while you want to blame Jason Kipnis‘ down year on injuries, you always want to blame down years on injuries, and sometimes they’re just changes in ability for whatever other reason.

Mariners

• Projection: 88-74
• Depth chart page

Reasons for optimism

There’s real elite talent here, in Robinson Cano, Felix Hernandez, and Kyle Seager. Nelson Cruz plugged the most obvious offensive hole, and all he did last season was lead the bigs in home runs. Both Chris Taylor and Brad Miller have excelled everywhere but the majors, and Austin Jackson ought to return to being a solid starter after an offseason of rest. The projections don’t even love James Paxton as much as non-projection evaluators do.

Reasons for pessimism

Paxton was hurt last year, Taijuan Walker was hurt last year, Roenis Elias was hurt last year, and J.A. Happ has never been anything but J.A. Happ. How much can you really count on Jackson to bounce back? Miller might have a strikeout problem, and Mike Zunino definitely has a strikeout problem, and Logan Morrison isn’t actually a good player to be starting at first base. Whenever you have a roster with this much at the top, one well-placed injury can make a big difference.

Orioles

• Projection: 79-83
• Depth chart page

Reasons for optimism

Is this where I cite the Orioles’ magic? Beyond that, Matt Wieters is coming back, and Chris Davis should improve. Manny Machado remains one of the greatest talents in baseball, even if he might no longer project as a shortstop, and while you can choose to focus on the loss of Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis, Alejandro De Aza is fine, and David Lough is fine, and Steve Pearce just beat the crap out of the baseball.

Reasons for pessimism

Kevin Gausman is the most talented starter in the rotation, but no one in there is really an impact pitcher. Even in the Orioles’ case, you shouldn’t just rely on clutch performance and good luck, and the whole team’s gotten thinner. It’s a problem if Pearce isn’t a real good hitter again. It’s a problem if Machado’s legs prevent him from being a truly elite defender at third.

Rangers

• Projection: 77-85
• Depth chart page

Reasons for optimism

This season one shouldn’t expect every player in the clubhouse to come down with malaria. Just look over the top of the roster: Yu Darvish, Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder, Derek Holland, Shin-Soo Choo. That’s a lot of name value, and name value comes from real value, to some extent. As much as Jurickson Profar has struggled with injuries, the healthy version should still be one of the premier young middle-infield talents in the game.

Reasons for pessimism

How hard would it be to believe that Fielder might just be declining? Same goes for Choo, and as for Darvish, the talent is almost unparalleled, but he finished last year with a problem in his elbow, which bodes somewhat poorly. The rotation isn’t deep, given the Martin Perez surgery and the Matt Harrison unknown. All Michael Choice was last year was the player with the lowest WAR in the majors.

Rays

• Projection: 83-79
• Depth chart page

Reasons for optimism

After the trade, Drew Smyly immediately took a step forward, for seemingly legitimate reasons. Rene Rivera is like Jose Molina with a bat in his hands, and Steven Souza might be just as good as Wil Myers, and Kevin Kiermaier is coming off some truly absurd statistics, in a good way. Alex Cobb is quietly on the level of some real-life aces, and Evan Longoria has a track record suggesting that 2014 will stand as an aberration in retrospect.

Reasons for pessimism

Even players like Longoria get worse eventually. It might be that Souza has a swing that’s too long to really be successful in the majors in a meaningful way, and Rivera never really hit prior to 2014 so you can’t count on him maintaining a good wOBA. Nick Franklin might be flaming out just as Ben Zobrist enters a more accelerated period of decline.

Red Sox

• Projection: 87-75
• Depth chart page

Reasons for optimism

This projection doesn’t even include anything for Rusney Castillo, who gets a default -0.2 WAR instead of the +2 or +3 the Red Sox presumably expect. There’s some amount of depth everywhere, with an outfield where said depth cancels out many of the looming question marks. Having four talented outfielders for three spots helps to mitigate injury and under-performance concerns. The rotation, as it stands, could be very quietly effective when you combine groundballs with a solid-framing tandem of backstops.

Reasons for pessimism

Remember just last year when Xander Bogaerts was particularly not good? The rotation is also both thin and relatively underwhelming, and it’s not like you can just count on health from Hanley Ramirez and Shane Victorino. Or Dustin Pedroia. Or Mike Napoli. Or anyone, really. This team just last year was a huge disappointment. Might that in any way carry over?

Royals

• Projection: 81-81
• Depth chart page

Reasons for optimism

When you look at that bullpen, it’s easy to figure the team will win more games than its overall level of talent. The Royals added a very intriguing flyer candidate in Kris Medlen, and there’s also no telling when Kyle Zimmer might make an appearance and prove he belongs. The underrated stars are still there, and perhaps some of last year’s offensive disappointments will have gotten better from experience.

Reasons for pessimism

Kendrys Morales, last year, was bad. So was Alex Rios. Edinson Volquez hasn’t been actually good for a long time. It hurts to lose James Shields, as when you peek behind Yordano Ventura, you see something that looks more like the rotation of a last-place team than a first-place team. It’s good to have a strong defense, but you generally don’t want defense to be your strength.

Tigers

• Projection: 86-76
• Depth chart page

Reasons for optimism

J.D. Martinez was a big-time breakout, as was Shane Greene, who the Tigers did well to add for the cost of some non-impact prospects. Even if the Tigers don’t manage to re-sign Max Scherzer, Greene could help to numb the pain, and if Justin Verlander learned anything from the year he just had, he could return to something closer to the level of his track record. This is still a team with Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez.

Reasons for pessimism

Cabrera’s getting older, and Martinez is getting older. Verlander’s getting older, and Joe Nathan is getting older. We’re all getting older, but the Tigers seem to be getting older faster, and Alfredo Simon doesn’t seem like a good bet to be effective in a regular role. You’d like to see more in center field, and you don’t really know what they’re going to get out of Jose Iglesias or Nick Castellanos. When you keep borrowing from the future to improve the present, you don’t end up with a whole lot of youth.

Twins

• Projection: 76-86
• Depth chart page

Reasons for optimism

Kennys Vargas swings really hard, and that’s fun, and baseball’s fun, and, who knows, right? In football, they say, any given Sunday. In baseball, you could say, any given any day! Hey, Twins, all right!

Reasons for pessimism

Phil Hughes is having to do a lot to prop up the starting rotation, and even last year he seemed somewhat hittable despite his extraordinary strikeout and walk numbers. The defense is going to be a weakness, and while Torii Hunter will be popular with fans in April, who’s to say how popular he’ll still be in August? Oswaldo Arcia has drawn 50 walks to go with 244 strikeouts. All Danny Santana did was run a .405 BABIP, which is a BABIP that begins with a 4.

White Sox

• Projection: 78-84
• Depth chart page

Reasons for optimism

Complaining about the back end of the starting rotation skips right by the front end of the starting rotation, which might soon also include an effective Carlos Rodon. And then if Rodon is good, that’s not really a “front end” of the starting rotation, since you’d be talking about four really talented arms. If Adam Eaton is a good defensive center fielder, he’s a real impact player, and there’s little to doubt about Jose Abreu. Melky Cabrera, recently, has been good when he hasn’t had a tumor in his body pressing up against his spine. (He doesn’t have one of those anymore.)

Reasons for pessimism

One thing the White Sox aren’t is deep. The elite talent is real elite talent, but it’s not even just backups who don’t project well — there are also just open, mediocre starting positions. As much as people have compared Avisail Garcia to Miguel Cabrera, by this point Cabrera had 104 career dingers. He had a .535 slugging percentage. Could be that Garcia is Cabrera in the way that Ramon Ortiz was Pedro Martinez.

Yankees

• Projection: 83-79
• Depth chart page

Reasons for optimism

Wait a second. Masahiro Tanaka, and Michael Pineda, and CC Sabathia, and Nathan Eovaldi, and Ivan Nova? Given health, that could be a really outstanding starting five. The bullpen also has a stupid twosome in Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances, and while Chase Headley didn’t get Pablo Sandoval money, he might be the better player and the Yankees did well to keep him. I don’t want to dump on Derek Jeter, but compared to late-career Derek Jeter, it’s going to be good to have Didi Gregorius.

Reasons for pessimism

Look at that starting rotation. You already thought about the talent. Now think about the other things. Yeah, the other things also matter. No player in the lineup doesn’t have question marks. There are plenty of star names. Perhaps even too many star names. Now, identify a certain star player. It’s not so easy. The Marlins dumped Garrett Jones on the Yankees to save some money, and the Yankees actually have a use for him. That’s…both good and discouraging?