The Weakest Positions on the Remaining NL Contenders

The Dodgers’ defeat of the Padres on Wednesday night did a lot to clear up the last suspenseful division race by restoring their NL West lead to three games, reducing their magic number to two, and cutting the San Diego’s odds of winning the division to 3%. The bigger story, however — an infuriating one given commissioner Rob Manfred’s unwillingness to override the Braves’ profit-minded intransigence with some proactive schedule shifting — is the Hurricane Helene-induced postponement of the final two games of the Mets-Braves series. Unless the Diamondbacks slide completely out of the picture, the two NL East rivals will now play a 1:10 p.m. ET doubleheader in Atlanta on Monday, the day after the scheduled end of the regular season. Whichever of the two teams survives (possibly both) would then face flights to Milwaukee (locked in as the third seed) and/or California (either Los Angeles or San Diego as the fourth seed) to start their respective Wild Card series the next day, with their pitching staffs at a significant disadvantage. Ugh, ugh, ugh.

Anyway, having gone around the horn and then some to identify the strongest players at each position among the remaining contenders in the National and American Leagues, we now turn to the weakest ones. This is something of an offshoot of my annual Replacement Level Killers series, and in fact, even some confirmed October participants have spots that still fit the bill as true lineup sinkholes, only this time with no trade deadline to help fill them. For this, I’m considering full-season performance but with an eye to who’s best or worst now, with injuries and adjustments in mind. Unlike the Killers series, I’m also considering pitching, with the shortening of rotations and bullpens factoring into my deliberations.

In this installment, I’ll highlight the biggest trouble spots from among an NL field that includes the Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Mets, and Braves.

Catcher: Kyle Higashioka and Elias Díaz, Padres

Padres catchers have combined for 1.0 WAR, the lowest mark of any remaining contender in either league by 1.4 WAR. The recent addition of Elias Díaz via waivers, and the subsequent optioning of Luis Campusano — whose 83 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR, with ghastly defensive metrics in every flavor, are what has really weighed that ranking down — mitigates that somewhat. Still, a pairing of Díaz with Kyle Higashioka stands out more as flimsy relative to the competition than an actual liability. Higashioka is a better-than-average hitter for a backstop thanks to his power; he hit .218/.264/.470 (104 wRC+), with 16 home runs in 251 plate appearances, and he’s at least decent defensively (3.7 FRM, -3 FRV including blocking and throwing). Díaz is weaker with the bat (.266/.315/.381, 82 wRC+) but similarly solid behind the plate. Now if only they had a former shortstop who could catch…

First Base: Rhys Hoskins and Jake Bauers, Brewers

After missing all of the 2023 season due to a torn ACL, Rhys Hoskins has struggled mightily, batting just .213/.303/.415 (100 wRC+). He’s still provided enough pop to hit 25 home runs, but he’s not hitting the ball as hard as he did before his injury, he’s striking out more often, and let’s face it, defense still isn’t his strong suit. Jake Bauers, who has started 58 games to Hoskins’ 86 (with the latter making 36 starts at DH), is the better defender, but as his .197/.299/.363 (87 wRC+) slashline shows, he has yet to show he’s above Quad-A caliber. Hoskins has hit for a 117 wRC+ with much better Statcast numbers in September, so maybe there’s a glimmer of hope here, but with the exception of San Diego’s Luis Arraez/Jake Cronenworth/Donovan Solano mishmash, the rest of the NL field features good-to-great first basemen, and I’d take that Pad pod over the Brewers’ pair.

Second Base: Ozzie Albies, Braves

While I considered the Phillies’ Bryson Stott (who has hit for just an 84 wRC+ in the second half) for this spot, he and his backups have more than doubled the WAR of Braves second basemen (3.0 to 1.2), even with Whit Merrifield playing more effectively for the latter club than the former. Atlanta’s disadvantage has a lot to do with Ozzie Albies missing two months due to a fractured left wrist. Albies is back, but he’s just 3-for-19 with a home run and an 85.3-mph average exit velocity in four games, and has hit a modest .253/.303/.403 (94 wRC+) with nine homers this year, well off last year’s performance (124 wRC+, 33 HR). The Braves have bigger liabilities (see below), but I’m not yet convinced that makes Albies an asset in his current form.

Shortstop: Orlando Arcia, Braves

In 2023, Orlando Arcia stepped into the starting shortstop role vacated by departed free agent Dansby Swanson and turned a hot first half into the first All-Star selection of his career; even after cooling off last season, he finished with a respectable .264/.321/.420 (100 wRC+) line and 2.4 WAR. This year, however, he wound up on my midseason Replacement Level Killers list, and while he’s had a better second half (95 wRC+) than first (56 wRC+), his overall performance (.219/.271/.357, 72 wRC+, 1.0 WAR) makes him by far the least valuable of any regular shortstop on an NL contender — and his track record, including his struggles in Milwaukee, put him much closer to this season’s level than last year’s.

Third Base: Gio Urshela, Braves

It’s not my intent to keep picking on the Braves, but they’re in a bind here, and the competition at this position is stiff. Eugenio Suárez was my pick for the position’s strongest on the basis of his hot second half, getting the nod over Alec Bohm and Manny Machado, with Max Muncy, Joey Ortiz, and Mark Vientos all having good seasons as well. Austin Riley wasn’t playing up to his usual level before he fractured his right hand on August 18, but he’d have fit into that latter cluster just fine and would’ve made this choice a very difficult one. Unfortunately, while the Braves hoped Riley would return in time for the playoffs, on Tuesday they revealed that a CT scan taken earlier this week showed his hand hadn’t healed enough to make him a viable option before the end of the postseason. That puts fill-in Gio Urshela into the crosshairs. Released by the Tigers in mid-August after posting a 75 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR, he has performed respectably since being picked up by the Braves (.270/.288/.426, 95 wRC+ in 118 PA), but even if he could maintain that level, he’d still be the least appealing option of this group.

Left Field: Brandon Nimmo, Mets

I was all set to go with the Braves here as well until digging into their recent usage pattern, with hot-hitting Ramón Laureano (.301/.332/.510, 131 wRC+ in 205 PA for the team after being released by the Guardians) playing more or less full time lately while Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall have been justifiably benched for attempted replacement level killing. Instead I’m going with Brandon Nimmo. The normally reliable outfielder’s 111 wRC+ and 2.8 WAR are well below his usual standards because he’s hit an anemic .190/.285/.319 (70 wRC+) since the All-Star break. Even with four home runs in his past 10 games, his wRC+ for the month is still just 81. Maybe he’s emerging from his slump, but at a position where five other regular left fielders on NL contenders have produced a 130 wRC+ or better in the second half, he’s not pulling his weight.

Center Field: Harrison Bader, Mets

Nimmo isn’t the only Mets outfielder in a prolonged slump. Harrison Bader has out-funked his teammate, batting .177/.245/.300 (57 wRC+) in 143 PA in the second half, and has hit for just an 83 wRC+ with 1.5 WAR overall. He’s still a decent flychaser, though his 10 FRV doesn’t line up with average-ish totals in DRS (-2) and UZR (0.2).

Right Field: Sal Frelick, Brewers

A former first-round pick (2021) and top-50 prospect (2023), Sal Frelick is a speedy hit-over-power type whose offensive profile makes far more sense in center field (where he’s spotted occasionally) than in right. He simply doesn’t hit the ball hard enough. His 83.4 mph average exit velo, 0.8% barrel rate (that’s three barrels in 395 batted ball events), and 19.5% hard-hit rate all rank last among the 130 batting title-qualified hitters, and it’s translated into a meager .259/.321/.334 line, with his 86 wRC+ second-to-last among the players whose primary position is right field. His defensive value helps to offset the light bat; even with some small-sample weirdness in left field, he’s totaled 13 DRS, 6 FRV and 4.2 UZR across the three outfield positions en route to 1.5 WAR.

Designated Hitter: J.D. Martinez, Mets

Last year with the Dodgers, J.D. Martinez reunited with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc, who a decade ago helped him unlock his power by hitting the ball in the air with greater frequency, thus putting him at the forefront of the launch angle revolution and on the path to stardom. The reunion helped Martinez to his best season since 2019, a 33-homer, 135-wRC+ performance, but the signing of Shohei Ohtani put him out of a job in Los Angeles. He languished on the free agent market until late March, and after signing with the Mets, needed a minor league tuneup and didn’t debut until April 26. For awhile things went very well, as he hit .263/.349/.457 (130 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 278 PA before the All-Star break. He’s joined Nimmo and Bader in the dumps since then, batting just .194/.276/.339 (77 wRC+), including a 3-for-44 September worthy of putting his face on the side of a milk carton. Have you seen this slugger?

Rotation: Dodgers

It’s not that the Dodgers were doomed to repeat last year’s Division Series unraveling because they forgot what happened. They loaded up on high-end starting pitching this past winter by signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto and trading for Tyler Glasnow, then adding James Paxton and bringing back Clayton Kershaw with a plan for him to return from major shoulder surgery in midsummer. With those pitchers — fragile though they may have been — joining their existing wealth of young arms (including Walker Buehler and Dustin May, both returning from elbow surgeries), the Dodgers figured they had enough pitching to make it through the season and assemble a strong rotation for the playoffs.

It hasn’t happened that way, as every regular starter of theirs besides the oft-injured Paxton — including all of the aforementioned plus Bobby Miller — landed on the IL at some point, with Miller and Buehler pitching like shadows of their former selves and earning demotions to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Now their only two starters to reach the 100-inning threshold — Glasnow and rookie Gavin Stone — have been done in by arm injuries (an elbow sprain for the former, shoulder inflammation for the latter). Kershaw is on the IL due to a bone spur in his left big toe, and Yamamoto has yet to pitch more than four innings in a start since returning from a 12-week absence due to a rotator cuff strain. Even with the acquisition of Jack Flaherty ahead of the trade deadline, the Los Angeles rotation has produced a 5.02 ERA and 4.75 FIP since July 30, and rookie Landon Knack and the struggling Buehler may very well need to start alongside Yamamoto and Flaherty in the Division Series. Not even a $255 million payroll can buy certainty.

Bullpen: Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks reached the World Series last year despite an unsteady bullpen that was greatly aided by their trading for closer Paul Sewald at the deadline. Unfortunately for them, Sewald pitched his way out of the ninth inning job by blowing four saves in July, and his replacement, Justin Martinez, has allowed runs in 10 of his 22 appearances since notching his first save on August 5, converting eight out of nine save chances but taking four losses along the way. The bullpen fared very well in August (3.34 ERA, 2.97 FIP) but has been awful in September (6.39 ERA, 4.24 FIP) due in large part to a .362 BABIP and far too much hard contact. While one deadline acquisition, A.J. Puk, is riding a streak of 22 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings, another addition, Dylan Floro, pitched his way off the roster with a double-digit ERA; meanwhile setup man Ryan Thompson has been lit for a 6.86 ERA since the start of August, and Sewald has landed on the IL with neck discomfort. Bad pitching (including the starters) has been the major driver of Arizona’s 4-7 skid that has kept the door wide open for both the Braves and Mets, weather be damned.

Defense: Padres

Among the remaining NL contenders, the Padres have the lowest DRS (-9) and UZR (-8.4), and they’re within one run of the lowest FRV (-12). To be fair, those numbers are weighed down by the since-demoted Campusano, but in their current state, the Padres do have issues. The return of Fernando Tatis Jr. from a 10-week absence due to a stress reaction in his right femur has been offset by the loss of shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to a bout of shoulder inflammation. His absence has destabilized the defense by sending Xander Bogaerts back to the position they moved him off this spring, which with the shift of Cronenworth back to second has forced the DH-caliber Arraez to play first some of the time. The timing of Kim’s return is unclear; meanwhile, Tatis isn’t having anything close to the kind of season that won him last year’s Platinum Glove, and left fielder Jurickson Profar is a particular liability based on the metrics. Even so, none of this has stopped the Padres from putting together the best second-half record (40-18, .695) in baseball.