The Worst Team Defenses Among Contenders

If you followed along with my Replacement Level Killers series, you’re no doubt familiar with the disheveled state of the Twins. After last year’s epic late-season collapse, Minnesota started slowly, clawed its way back into contention, and then stumbled during a 9-18 June; the team is now 48-51 with 17.5% Playoff Odds, still good enough to qualify for my series highlighting the weakest spots on contenders. Within that series, the Twins made a major league-high five appearances: at catcher, first base, second base, third base, and right field. An underrated part of their struggles is their defense. To the extent that they can still be considered contenders, their glovework stands out as the worst of any playoff hopeful based upon the methodology I used to identify the best team defenses thus far a few weeks ago.

Along with that piece, this is part of my annual midseason dip into the alphabet soup of defensive metrics, including Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (FRV), and our own catcher framing metric (hereafter abbreviated as FRM, as it is on our stat pages). Longtime standby Ultimate Zone Rating has been retired, which required me to adjust my methodology.

On an individual level, even a full season of data isn’t enough to get the clearest picture of a player’s defense. Indeed, it’s not at all surprising that samples of 800 innings or fewer produce divergent values across the major metrics; different methodologies produce varying spreads in runs from top to bottom, spreads that owe something to what they don’t measure, as well as how much regression is built into their systems. Pitchers don’t have FRVs, and DRS tends to produce more extreme ratings (positive and negative) than Statcast. But within this aggregation, I think we get enough signal roughly 60% of the way through the season to justify checking in; I don’t proclaim this to be a bulletproof methodology so much as a good point of entry into a broad topic.

To account for all the bits in the alphabet soup, I aggregated the aforementioned metrics, adjusting for the varying spreads in run values by using standard deviation scores (z-scores), which measure how many standard deviations each team is from the league average in each category. As with last year, I’ve broken out catcher values for both FRV and DRS from the rest of a team’s values in both metrics. Note that the version of DRS that we display on FanGraphs does include a framing component (rSZ, for strike zone) that isn’t used in Baseball Reference’s WAR calculations (you can find it on a player’s fielding page). The three catcher measures (including FRV) are each weighted at one-half the value of the non-catcher scores, which improves the correlation with run prevention. New for this year, I’m using Defensive Efficiency, the rate at which a team turns batted balls into outs, published at Baseball Reference. I originally weighted that equally with non-catcher DRS and FRV, but found that weighting it at 1.5 times improved the correlation with run prevention. Last year’s midseason z-score formula had a -.39 correlation with runs allowed per game (higher scores mean fewer runs allowed), but with this year’s reconfigured formula, the correlation has improved to -.77.

First, let’s look at the spreads for the various categories, updated through games played on Friday (as is the case for all individual statistics included in this piece unless otherwise indicated):

Here’s how the rankings look, from bottom to top; you can see the actual run values for all but the DRS and FRV catcher breakouts here. The table is sortable, and I’ve highlighted the contending teams — those with a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10% — whose defenses I’ll examine in yellow, with the trailers among those teams highlighted in blue, which helps to illustrate where the metrics agree and disagree.

The Twins are the runaway trailers, with the Phillies and Diamondbacks also well below average. The other four highlighted teams are slightly above average in the aggregate, but they do have defensive vulnerabilities worth pointing out. On the heels of the Killers series, all of this is meant to fit into our pre-trade deadline coverage. Defensive upgrades generally come cheaper than offensive ones, so it will be worth keeping an eye upon who shores up these weaknesses over the next week and a half.

Twins

Catchers Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez formed a tandem that was solidly middle-of-the-pack last year, combining for 2.2 WAR thanks in part to the latter’s strong defense (9.7 FRM, 5 FRV). This year the pair landed on the Killers largely due to Vázquez’s falling off on both side of the ball, with what’s now more or less average defense accompanying Jeffers’ typically fringy work behind the plate (-3.5 FRM, -4 FRV). DRS is particularly down on Jeffers (-10), though half of that total is from the rCERA component, which attempts to (dis)credit catchers for their effect on a pitching staff’s ERA — a concept that has generally (but not uniformly) been viewed with skepticism within the sabermetric community.

If the Twins’ problems stopped there, they’d be in better shape defensively, but they rank among the worst contenders in all three non-catcher categories. Carlos Correa, the one infield starter who didn’t end up on a Killers list, has been comparatively healthy, already equaling last year’s games played total (86 through Sunday). However, he ranks last among all shortstops at -10 DRS, though he’s average according to FRV. Brooks Lee has been subpar at both third base and second according to DRS (-5 and -2, respectively) though his FRV doesn’t quite align (0 and -3). Willi Castro and Edouard Julien have both struggled in even thinner slices of playing time at second, and right fielders Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach are each in the red via both metrics. Their quickest route to a defensive upgrade is probably addressing their situation at the keystone, where they’ve lacked stability except for the part-time play of Kody Clemens, who’s lately been spending more time at first than second given Ty France’s offensive struggles.

Phillies

No surprise here, particularly with the brutal right field work of perennial Replacement Level Killer Nick Castellanos, whose major league-worst metrics for the position (-13 DRS, -11 FRV) put him on pace for a career year of sorts. The Phillies did make the Killers lists at the other two outfield spots as well; Brandon Marsh has been subpar in center to one degree or another (-9 DRS, -1 FRV), and Kyle Schwarber has underscored his value as a DH by contributing to their woes in left in just 50 innings (-2 DRS, -3 FRV). In the dirt, Bryce Harper’s work at first base has declined considerably, from 6 FRV and 5 DRS in 2024 to -3 FRV and -2 DRS in ’25, and catcher J.T. Realmuto’s framing is a bit of a weak spot (-4 FRM, -1 framing run by Statcast).

Since neither Harper nor Realmuto is going anywhere, any hope the Phillies have of improving their defense involves the outfield. They have yet to show an inclination to quit Castellanos, so adding a center fielder seems more likely, particularly because Marsh’s partner in the middle pasture, Johan Rojas, is a great flychaser (4 FRV, 3 DRS) who has produced just a 61 wRC+.

Diamondbacks

Eugenio Suárez may be the top bat available at the deadline if the Diamondbacks decide to sell, but he tends to give back a few runs on defense. His -5 DRS makes this the seventh season in a row he’s been below average by that metric; while Statcast values him more highly, his -3 FRV is 12 runs below his 2023 mark and five runs below last year’s.

Elsewhere, while catcher Gabriel Moreno and right fielder Corbin Carroll are above average at their positions, left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (-7 DRS, -3 FRV), shortstop Geraldo Perdomo (-7 DRS, -1 FRV), and first baseman Josh Naylor (-4 DRS, -1 FRV) are not, and the jury is out on center fielder Alek Thomas (-3 DRS, 2 FRV). Just about everybody from the latter group has been floated as a trade possibility if the Diamondbacks (50-50 with 20% Playoff Odds entering this week) do sell. If they’re to bounce back and claim a playoff spot, they’ll have to overcome their defensive issues.

Mariners

This one is something of a puzzler. Cal Raleigh — who has caught about 73% of the Mariners’ innings — rates as above average by FRM (5.7) and FRV (5, including 4 runs for framing) but below average by DRS (-5, including -7 in rCERA, which I tend to discount), and so even with backup Mitch Garver rating as average by DRS (the whole metric, not just rCERA), the Mariners score particularly badly in that category relative to other contenders.

Meanwhile, Seattle’s non-catchers have the majors’ second-largest gap between their DRS z-score and their FRV z-score, with the former rating them as slightly above average and the latter as well below average. While shortstop J.P. Crawford’s defense (-6 FRV, 1 DRS) rates as a legitimate concern according to Statcast, ex-Mariners Rowdy Tellez (-4 FRV at first base) and Leody Taveras (-2 FRV in right field) and the injured Victor Robles (-3 FRV in right field) aren’t really relevant to the discussion at this juncture. If the Mariners don’t believe in right fielder Dominic Canzone’s current heater or the likelihood of Robles’ return from a early-April shoulder fracture, the position (-10 FRV, -4 DRS) stands out as a spot to upgrade, but this is mostly an average defensive team save for Raleigh and center fielder Julio Rodríguez, who ranks fifth at the position in both DRS (10) and FRV (7).

Astros

As if the Astros didn’t already have enough problems due to injuries both to their pitching staff and lineup, they’re on this list as well. While Jose Altuve has been a true liability at his new position in left field (-8 DRS, -4 FRV in just 342 innings), Houston is here due to the defensive shortcomings of its catchers. Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini have combined to rank last in the majors in FRV (-14), with Diaz notably subpar in framing (-6) as well as throwing (-2) and blocking (-1), and Caratini is bad in framing (-4). The duo rates second worst in FRM (-8.5) as well, and fifth worst in DRS (-6) due to throwing and framing. Manager Joe Espada’s use of whichever one isn’t catching on that day to fill the DH role in the absence of Yordan Alvarez isn’t helping, either, as the two of them have combined for -1.0 WAR in 154 PA in that capacity.

The 26-year Diaz put up 3.0 WAR last year despite similarly wobbly defense; he entered Sunday right at zero WAR, driven in part by a plummet from a 116 wRC+ to 85. Caratini has hit well (110 wRC+) for the second year in a row, but his defense has fallen off. It’s tough to see the Astros prioritizing an upgrade here, particularly with Diaz having two years of arbitration eligibility remaining. A more reasonable hope would be for a quick return for Alvarez, who was recently cleared by doctors to begin swinging a bat; he could be activated some time this week. Not having the catchers in the DH mix should allow them to get some rest, which perhaps would then help them improve on both sides of the ball. Adding a true left fielder and returning Altuve to second, where he’s been rough (-3 DRS, 0 FRV in 269 1/3 innings) but not as dreadful as he’s been in left, represents a much more plausible upgrade.

Dodgers

Entering this week, Will Smith leads the NL in batting average (.323) and wRC+ (169, one point ahead of the slumping Shohei Ohtani), but his defense rates as below average by the three major metrics for the second season in a row. He’s last in the majors in the framing components of both Statcast (-8) and DRS (-5) while netting out as average in framing and blocking, and he’s also among the bottom five in FRM (-5.4). Backup Dalton Rushing has been a couple runs above average in throwing via Statcast and DRS and more or less average in framing.

While Mookie Betts’ play at shortstop has been impressive even amid his offensive struggles, the Dodgers do have some areas of concern at other positions. Freddie Freeman is significantly in the red in DRS (-5) for the second time in three seasons, though he’s been average according to FRV. Teoscar Hernández has been very bad in right (-8 FRV, -2 DRS), but injuries have contributed to his lack of range. He spent 13 days on the injured list due to a groin strain in May, and has been further hampered since fouling a ball off his left foot on July 5; he’s been gutting it out in order to stay in the lineup amid the team’s other injuries. Michael Conforto has struggled both offensively and defensively to the point of landing on the Killers list. His glovework (-3 DRS, -3 FRV) hasn’t helped his cause, and if the Dodgers do upgrade, an outfielder who can play right might ease the burden on Hernández by bumping him to left.

Padres

Defensively, the Padres’ biggest problem — indeed, the reason why they’re among this group — is their catchers. After letting Kyle Higashioka depart as a free agent and demoting Luis Campusano because they weren’t satisfied with his defense, they’ve handed their catching chores over to Elias Díaz, who was released in mid-August of last season by the Rockies, and Martín Maldonado, who spent last season with the White Sox, contributing -1.5 WAR to their record-setting futility. Both are in the red via all three metrics this season, with Díaz (-4 DRS, -2.4 FRM, -2 FRV) the worse framer of the two, and Maldonado (-1 DRS, -1.4 FRM, -8 FRV) the worse thrower. In fact, Statcast rates the latter as the majors’ worst thrower (-4 runs) and among the bottom five in blocking (-2 runs) as well. The pair also ranks among the majors’ worst on offense. The need for an upgrade here is rather glaring.

As for the rest of their defense, Luis Arraez has put in DH-caliber work at first base (-6 FRV, -2 DRS), which actually opens up the possibility of upgrading two positions with a single acquisition, since their rotating cast of DHs made the Killers list. Second base has also been a bit of a trouble spot in that Jake Cronenworth and Jose Iglesias have combined for -9 DRS (tied for fourth worst) and -2 FRV. Bet on A.J. Preller to shake things up in the coming weeks.