Top 47 Prospects: Los Angeles Dodgers
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.
All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.
| Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gavin Lux | 22.5 | MLB | 2B | 2020 | 70 |
| 2 | Dustin May | 22.7 | MLB | RHP | 2020 | 60 |
| 3 | Josiah Gray | 22.4 | AA | RHP | 2022 | 50 |
| 4 | Tony Gonsolin | 26.0 | MLB | RHP | 2020 | 50 |
| 5 | Keibert Ruiz | 21.8 | AAA | C | 2020 | 50 |
| 6 | Brusdar Graterol | 21.7 | MLB | RHP | 2020 | 50 |
| 7 | Diego Cartaya | 18.7 | R | C | 2023 | 45+ |
| 8 | Andy Pages | 19.4 | R | CF | 2023 | 45+ |
| 9 | Kody Hoese | 22.8 | A | 3B | 2022 | 45 |
| 10 | Michael Busch | 22.5 | A | 2B | 2021 | 45 |
| 11 | Miguel Vargas | 20.5 | A+ | 3B | 2022 | 45 |
| 12 | Jacob Amaya | 21.7 | A+ | SS | 2022 | 45 |
| 13 | Gerardo Carrillo | 21.7 | A+ | RHP | 2022 | 45 |
| 14 | Alex De Jesus | 18.1 | R | 3B | 2024 | 45 |
| 15 | Andre Jackson | 24.0 | A+ | RHP | 2021 | 40+ |
| 16 | Ryan Pepiot | 22.7 | A | RHP | 2022 | 40+ |
| 17 | Luis Rodriguez | 17.7 | R | CF | 2025 | 40+ |
| 18 | Robinson Ortiz | 20.4 | A | LHP | 2023 | 40+ |
| 19 | Michael Grove | 23.4 | A+ | RHP | 2022 | 40+ |
| 20 | DJ Peters | 24.4 | AAA | CF | 2020 | 40 |
| 21 | Jimmy Lewis | 19.5 | R | RHP | 2024 | 40 |
| 22 | Edwin Uceta | 22.3 | AA | RHP | 2021 | 40 |
| 23 | Omar Estevez | 22.2 | AA | 2B | 2021 | 40 |
| 24 | Josh Sborz | 26.4 | MLB | RHP | 2020 | 40 |
| 25 | Cody Thomas | 25.6 | AA | RF | 2021 | 40 |
| 26 | Dennis Santana | 24.1 | MLB | RHP | 2020 | 40 |
| 27 | Victor Gonzalez | 24.5 | AAA | LHP | 2020 | 40 |
| 28 | Zach McKinstry | 25.0 | AAA | 2B | 2020 | 40 |
| 29 | Edwin Rios | 26.1 | MLB | 1B | 2020 | 40 |
| 30 | Mitchell White | 25.4 | AAA | RHP | 2020 | 40 |
| 31 | Jorbit Vivas | 19.2 | R | 2B | 2022 | 40 |
| 32 | Carlos Duran | 18.8 | R | RHP | 2024 | 40 |
| 33 | Cristian Santana | 23.2 | A | 3B | 2021 | 40 |
| 34 | Jerming Rosario | 18.0 | R | RHP | 2024 | 40 |
| 35 | Brett de Geus | 22.5 | A+ | RHP | 2021 | 35+ |
| 36 | Jordan Sheffield | 24.9 | AA | RHP | 2020 | 35+ |
| 37 | Brandon Lewis | 21.6 | A | 3B | 2023 | 35+ |
| 38 | Marshall Kasowski | 25.2 | AA | RHP | 2020 | 35+ |
| 39 | Devin Mann | 23.3 | A+ | 2B | 2022 | 35+ |
| 40 | Jeren Kendall | 24.3 | A+ | CF | 2021 | 35+ |
| 41 | Jose Martinez | 21.1 | A+ | RHP | 2022 | 35+ |
| 42 | Zach Reks | 26.5 | AAA | DH | 2021 | 35+ |
| 43 | Luke Raley | 25.6 | AAA | 1B | 2020 | 35+ |
| 44 | Juan Morillo | 21.1 | R | RHP | 2021 | 35+ |
| 45 | Hyun-il Choi | 20.0 | R | RHP | 2024 | 35+ |
| 46 | James Outman | 23.0 | A | CF | 2022 | 35+ |
| 47 | Guillermo Zuniga | 21.6 | A+ | RHP | 2021 | 35+ |
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
Toolsy Lottery Tickets
Sauryn Lao, 3B
Luis Yanel Diaz, 3B
Carlos Rincon, RF
Yunior Garcia, RF
Leonel Valera, SS
Lao has clumsy-looking bat control similar to Todd Frazier’s, who has made quite a career out of somehow getting the barrel where it needs to be. Lao is a 35/40 at third and probably fits better in 1B/RF, which puts more pressure on his bat than I’m comfortable with to put him on the main section of the list, though I do dig him. Diaz is perhaps the most explosive rotator in the entire system, and he has among its highest exit velos (93 average, 100 max, both incredible for a teenager) but he has very little feel for the game and takes erratic at-bats despite having been in pro ball for a couple years now. Rincon and Garcia are right field power prospects. Rincon, now 22, has reached Double-A, where his approach has now been exposed. He posted a .282 OBP in over two months at Tulsa. Garcia is similar, a strong-bodied, 18-year-old powder keg with plus-plus bat speed and a totally unhinged approach. He walked just once all last year. Valera, 20, has a great build and significant power projection for a shortstop but — you guessed it — is a low-probability prospect because of his hit tool.
Role Players
Hunter Feduccia, C
Eddys Leonard, 2B
Justin Yurchak, 1B
Drew Avans, OF/LHP
Sam McWilliams, 2B
Romer Cuadrado, 1B
There was some support for Feduccia, 22, to be on the main section of the list. He had a strong statistical 2019 but it was at Low-A, a level with pitching worse than what he saw at LSU. He projects as a third catcher for now. Leonard is a stocky, contact-oriented infielder with limited physical projection. He hit .285/.379/.425 in the AZL last year and projects as a bench infielder. Yurchak keeps hitting. He’s 23 and now has a .300/.400/.450 career line in the minors, though he lacks the physical tools typical of big league first basemen. Avans and McWilliams are small school gamers from the swampy southeast. Avans may end up pitching once in a while but mostly he’s a speed and contact outfielder who might play a bench spot. McWilliams is a sleeper second base prospect with lots of average tools. Cuadrado is a 30 athlete with huge power and a swing that the org hasn’t been able to dial in to produce power yet.
Older Pitchers
Jeff Belge, LHP
Jack Little, RHP
Mark Washington, RHP
Mitchell Tyranski, LHP
Zach Willeman, RHP
While he was an amateur Belge dealt with several freak incidents involving his eyes and also had issues throwing strikes at St. John’s, but he’s a lefty up to 96 with a good slider so he has a shot to pitch out of a bullpen. Little is a low slot righty reliever with starter’s command, but his pitches have diminishing utility over multiple looks. Washington, a Lehigh alum, and Tyranski are both backspinning fastball pitchers whose stuff sneaks past hitters. Both have an up/down relief shot. Willeman was a 35+ FV prospect last year, as he was throwing really hard in Arizona while rehabbing from TJ, which cost him much of 2017 and 2018. He was held back to start 2019 and his stuff was down a bit when he returned, more 89-94 than sitting in the mid-90s the way it was the year before.
Younger Pitchers
Reinaldo De Paula, RHP
Jeisson Cabrera, RHP
Melvin Jimenez, RHP
Heisell Baro, RHP
Joan Valdez, RHP
Franklin De La Paz, LHP
De Paula, 21, is a relief-only prospect with a low slot delivery. He’s only up to 95 but his fastball spins at 2700 rpm and has monster tailing action. Cabrera is more of a typical three-pitch look — modest physical projection, up to 96, has a good changeup, fringe breaker. Jimenez has missed a ton of bats — 90 K in 50 IP last year — sitting 88-93 almost entirely because of deception that I think will loose its tooth at upper levels. Baro is an 18-year-old Cuban who sits 86-89 right now but he’s a plus-plus on-mound athlete who gets down the mound and whose arm works really well. He’s not a big-framed guy, I just love the delivery, athleticism, and feel for the breaking ball. Valdez and De La Paz are arm strength-only types up to 96.
System Overview
I don’t have much to say about this system that I haven’t said in the past. The Dodgers draft a lot of pitchers who have fallen due to injury, as if they think all pitchers, presently injured or not, are of equal risk to be hurt in the future. It’s netted them Walker Buehler, Andre Jackson, Michael Grove, Jimmy Lewis, Mitch White, and Marshall Kasowski, as well as lots of players who aren’t on the list because they remain injury-prone, like Texas righty Morgan Cooper, who threw a bullpen for the first time since he signed only recently.
The org also scoops up lots of players with odd career paths, like two-way backgrounds or ones who converted to pitching (Gray, Gonsolin, Brandon Lewis, Jackson again) or who may have been under-scouted because they’re from smaller schools in parts of the country with an over-saturation of talent, like the Southeast and California. The Dodgers are one of the, if not the, teams hurt most by a shortened draft because of how well they’ve done on Day Three under the current regime.
Swing changes? Yup, still a core competency for the Dodgers. It’s a less prominent trait now than in past years, in part because several of the successful swing changers are on the big league roster, but Lux and Vargas are clear examples. Velocity development is also rampant, so much so that several upper-level arms whose fastballs live in the mid-to-upper-90s, like Stetson Allie, Joel Inoa, Yordy Cabrera, Chris Nunn, Nathan Witt, and a host of others were either left off the list due to a combination of age and poor command, or because they were jettisoned to other clubs during the offseason because this org is so flush with pitching at a time when it’s at a premium for everyone else. That’s part of why (at least I like to think) Caleb Ferguson and Ross Stripling kind of slipped through the prospect cracks to some degree; it’s much easier for someone to get lost in the shuffle in an org like this than in a thinner system.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Thank you Eric, very cool!
I’m finding this list a bit more underwhelming than in the past. The difference between guys like Andy Pages and DJ Peters is that people are still in denial that most guys like Andy Pages do become DJ Peters, if they even get to that point. There’s a bunch of guys on the list like that. Last year, you could project on a bunch of guys like Gray, and I just don’t see that this year.
Hi ST: Not that Pages won’t fail (he certainly could) but the age difference is huge when comparing to Peters. I think there’s a 3 year difference based on draft age, right? With Three extra years of potential development Pages has to be considered to have a much higher ceiling (and lower floor) than the more established Peters.
Hm. DJ Peters was in rookie ball last in 2016, and he’s 24 now. Andy Pages was last in rookie ball in 2019, and he’s 19 now. So a 2-year age difference? I guess that’s fair that he would be seen as a better prospect now than Peters would have been back in the day. But even so, he’s probably still DJ Peters.
Jimmy Lewis could blow up and Pepiot could be their next small-school arm. I think we’re all kind of down on Bush and Hoese due to poor debuts at the plate last year, but those could easily turn out to be guys as well. That’s just their first 3 rounds last year, not to mention the J2 signings.
This system just generates so many prospects and prospect types (small HS, conversion arm, TJ/injury, track record in Latin America + ability to successfully scout/develop non showcase tools) that we suffer from fatigue and lose interest in guys unless they turn out to be a big player for the Dodgers and unconsciously devaluate them. Different from Tampa Bay, where the farm is arguably always the focal point due to low payroll and they are forced into gambling on openers, Mike Z etc., the Dodgers have the economic strength and assumed upper-level depth that allows their Front Office to focus on 55-60+ grade prospects like May and Lux and discard otherwise valuable 45-50 players like Verdugo, Yusniel Diaz etc. The way they cavalierly flip bunches of these guys along with this organizational talent makes them appear fringy. Mitchell White would probably be in Baltimore’s opening day bullpen and could be their closer by the end of the year.
“The Dodgers are one of the, if not the, teams hurt most by a shortened draft because of how well they’ve done on Day Three under the current regime.”
My understanding is you can sign an unlimited amount of players for $20,000 after the five rounds. The signing bonuses the Dodgers were handing out on Day 3 last year were $125,000. Intuitively I would think this structure is a jackpot opportunity for a team like the Dodgers that can find deep value in under-scouted areas, but I know there are several gaps in my knowledge on the subject. Could someone please clarify this for me?
Doubt anyone who’s not a college senior is signing for $20K when they can just go back to school
As jts19 implied, it also needs the players to be willing to sign for that $20k. Yes, the Dodgers were able to sign people for $125k in previous drafts, but it’s going to be much harder to find players who are willing to forgo their commitments for a bit less than a sixth of that amount. Couple that with concerns about the effects of minor league contraction, and there’s going to be a lot more concern about signing with a team.
And frankly, that’s without considering any concerns they may have about their future in general, as between the reduced baseball incentive, the difficulty of making it all the way to the majors (and its vastly better pay, even with the increases in minor league salary), and other concerns such as the state of the economy (in which they might find more schooling to be a better choice), there’s plenty that they could worry about over the next few months that might keep them from signing.
That explains it. Thanks.
it’s ridiculous that there’s a cap on UDFA
Will Smith was a 50 FV going into 2019, then cut his K rate at AAA and hit 35 HR across AAA/MLB. Is he more like a 55/55+ now, if he were still eligible?
Red. It seems like he’s jumped quite a bit in everyone’s estimation. It now looks like he and not Ruiz is the long term piece at that position. In fact, I’d say he would have been a “60” if his MiLB stats through this early career had reflected what he would do in 2019. Of course, his Hit Tool is still borderline and may yet sink him. Just my opinion of course (but hey, I’ve been reading every one of these articles for years now – so, like Trump, I’m a (baseball) stable genius.
Seems like a Yan Gomes type.
I’ve got to imagine this is one of the harder sets of minor league parks as far as evaluating changes in skill against league/park factors. Smith (and Lux) both clearly MLB players, of course.
Considering what a great job McCourt did at destroying the farm system and embezzling money from the team (paying his sons VP salaries for jobs that didn’t exist) the new administration has restocked the cupboard very well indeed. Great analysis as always. Nothing like these articles exists anywhere else really
Before the shutdown, I was absolutely amazed that the Dodgers got Betts plus a draft pick plus Graterol just for taking Price. Now the shutdown it’s obvious the league knew something and had the scriptwriters load up the deal for the Dodgers. Perhaps now their greatest accomplishment under Friedman has a shot to not be the historic, HOF sealing 38% drop in payroll over 5 years
I am big on Cartaya long term even though he was falsely advertised as a switch hitter or I misread when he signed. Defer to popular opinion on Lux, have my doubts about May but he’s healthy and very young and surprisingly loose…This system reminds me of the 90s Yankees in that everyone seemingly gets a boost just for being Dodgers but it’s more gross as those 90s prospects got a boost due to the ML WS wins (back when teams and fans cared about that stuff) rather than their GM’s ability to make payroll efficient again and manipulate the injury list rules
Thanks, I look forward to this stuff. I will start a GoFundMe with a target of $3.50 to use as a bribe to bump up the Cubs. You’ll probably need a higher than 80 grade for future legend Yohendrick Pinango
Dodgers prospects maybe do get a boost, but perhaps that’s a reflection of the quality of their player development system in recent years. Since 2013, it seems like there’s been a consistent string of draftees/intl signees who they developed in their farm system and did pretty well by their first or second season. Bellinger, Seager, Buehler, Puig, Pederson and Stripling all made an All-Star team at some point. Verdugo, Julio Urias, Will Smith, Lux, and May all look like they have a shot of being productive major leaguers or possibly more. That’s a pretty impressive run.
Eh, the Dodgers had a great reputation for PD in the minors long before 2013. I don’t think getting a boost is a bad thing in and of itself, but when MLB’s media schills are bragging about their 38% drop in payroll during Friedman’s first 5 years…welp…If that sates the folks at home then let it be their forever
Using Cots 40 man numbers it appears as though the Dodgers spent…
291 million on payroll in 2015 to not win the World Series…
255 million on payroll in 2016 to not win the World Series…
244 million on payroll in 2017 to not win the World Series…
196 million on payroll in 2018 to not win the World Series…
205 million on payroll in 2019 to not win the World Series…
Well, 29 teams spend collectively billions to not win the World Series. Seems a complete waste of money.
And in those 5 years, they’ve made the NLDS five times, NLCS three times and the World Series twice – losing twice to teams that MLB have punished for things those teams did in their World Series winning years. Whilst winning loads of regular season games in that time.
such a bizarre comment for a fangraphs article
I remember in 2012 and 2013 when they starting spending like crazy. I never got the impression that was the new normal. What I do remember was decades of mediocrity up until that point. The idea was to compete in the short term while they built the foundation for the longer term. And as payroll has declined since then, the team has gotten better. This is easily the best Dodger team of my lifetime (“team” spanning multiple years) and it might be the best Dodger team of all time.
Is anyone else concerned about Lux’s ability to hit lefties? From 2016-2018, he was terrible vs lefties, in a considerable number of at bats.
He finally hit them in 2019, but that came with a 35% strikeout rate, followed up by 12 terrible plate appearances against them in the majors.
I am not convinced he’s more than a platoon guy, honestly.
That is a valid concern about almost any prospect. One year ago, this would have been the consensus. Making a prospect earn it is a good idea – there certainly is no harm in it. He has to hit quite a bit to be a good player and I also would like to see a longer track record before I expect it.
I’ve had this thought in my head going back to Schwarber coming up that maybe young LHHs these days have it way harder than their RHH counterparts and need a little longer sometimes. By far the L v L matchup is the one most dominated by pitchers, and matchup baseball dominated the pros during the 2010s. Someone with a brain should look into that…I was down on Schwarber for pretty much the same stuff you just said but now am fully on board as a first division starter
This is way too narrative heavy. Its a lot like the the scouting half is gone. I have never read a prospect writer that attempts to analyze mechanics to this extent who doesn’t flame out. In all likelihood, mechanical analysis is not your strength. I think you know this too, if not then I apologize for the remark. Even if it were you would learn pretty quickly that mechanics always change and that different things work for different people. You are over-committing to subjective analysis and narrative and it will lead to bias. To be fair, once you get past the 45 tier the analysis gets more consistent and fair. IMO that is better than mechanical analysis and speculation about robot catchers.
Even spreadsheet nerds have Karens
I would have loved to see at least a HM for one of my pet guys, Leo Crawford, although I was hoping to see him in the 40s. Doesn’t have elite velo but does crack the 90s, strong build, super crafty lefty with a very good changeup. 2.81 ERA and 134 K in 121 IP between A+ and AA this year. His AA debut with 11 K in 6 IP was one of the best minor league starts of the year IMO. 2019 LAD Org All-Star
I can assure you that teenage catchers throwing the ball around is not uncommon – its just a bad idea. The fact that his infielders are not on the same page points to it being an even bigger problem on his end. That all sounds like a liability as opposed to an asset. That said, it is an easy thing to do or not and really should not carry much weight either way.
The fact that he’s confident enough to throw the ball as much as he does points to him having makeup that scouts like. He’s a teenager in the low minors, it’s still acceptable for him to make some impulsive plays and trying to do too much.
Any more information on that bullpen from Morgan Cooper? We’ve been waiting years to hear how he looked.
For those interested, the American pronunciation of #35 Brett de Geus is [Bret d Gus]. The “e” is silent. Type “de Geus” into the search bar to hear the Dutch pronunciation https://forvo.com/languages/nl/ . Can you imagine the announcers successfully repeating that version?
No Josiah Gray until 2022?!? I know they have way too many young arms, but could he break through in 2020 if no minor league season?
I wasn’t expecting to ever see a link for a Syracuse.com article on Fangraphs, that was a nice surprise. That and seeing LeMoyne on Gray’s blurb nearly gave me Central New York overload
I can’t find it, but I swear there was an article here saying how Lux was seeming less and less like a sure thing. It was spring training article before the world got weird. Am I crazy or was it out there on Fangraphs somewhere?