Toronto’s New Defensive Alignment
In a surprise, the Blue Jays announced yesterday that Jose Bautista would not start at third base this season, but rather in right field. As a result, Edwin Encarnacion slides into the third base slot, and Juan Rivera becomes the team’s designated hitter. In a related move, the team also added Jayson Nix as a reserve infielder. The moves should make for a better defensive alignment for the Jays, and while the timing is a bit wonky, the outcome should not be.
Over the past two seasons, Bautista has played almost three times as many innings in the outfield as he has at third base, and 77 percent of his outfield innings have been in right field. And since he has stated this spring that he believes he is more valuable to the team in right field, the move makes sense on a common sense level. Statistically, it’s not so bad either.
UZR didn’t paint a pretty picture of him at either spot last season, but he has a positive DRS in right field the past two seasons, and a better track record there overall. And while Rivera’s one asset in the field is his arm, Bautista’s has been better. Looking at overall outfield Arm scores the past two years, Bautista checks in at 11.4 combined, while Rivera is at 6.7.
Of course, the reason that we have to look at outfield overall rather than just right field to get a good comparison between the two is the fact that Rivera has seldom played right field on a consistent basis during his career. The only time he did was during his first season of regular duty in the Majors, way back in 2004 with the Expos. Since then, he has averaged approximately 16 starts and 144 innings in right field per season, with a high water mark of 26 and 242 back in 2006. So while Blue Jays fans never really would have complained about his defense given the alternative, it probably wasn’t going to pretty out there for Rivera. Moved to DH, he can rest easy knowing that he won’t have to play the field on a regular basis. And while the Jays will hopefully be giving Travis Snider the most playing time possible, Rivera’s move to DH does give manager John Farrell the luxury of spotting him in for Snider against lefties.
On the other side of the coin is Encarnacion. To be modest, he has had his share of ups and downs throughout his career, but he did post some pretty strong numbers last season offensively – the best ISO of his career combined with the lowest BABIP of his career as well. Now, some of that is surely attributable to the small sample size, but if you look at the last three seasons in aggregate, Encarnacion’s .214 ISO ranks sixth among all third basemen (min. 1200 PA). In addition, his glove has steadily improved – both in UZR and DRS – the past three seasons, to the point where he was essentially neutral last year. While a one-year defensive sample can be dangerous, when you combine the fact that his UZR/150 at third was a full eight runs better than Bautista’s in 2010 with Farrell’s positive endorsement of Encarnacion’s newfound agility at the hot corner, you see that this decision really does have some legs.
But just in case Encarnacion is just another Grapefruit League mirage, the Jays covered themselves by adding Nix to their cadre of backup infielders. Like Mike McCoy and John McDonald, Nix possesses a superb glove. Unlike McCoy and McDonald, Nix has good power, and can park a ball every now and then. With Adam Lind still trying to learn the intricacies of first base, Nix could see time as a reserve at first base as well, as his bat has a better chance of playing there in small samples than either of the Mc’s. And while Nix did have some hiccups playing third last year, defense has always been his calling card. Even if he only has until Corey Patterson returns to prove himself worthy of a season-long roster spot, his acquisition not only represents a low-cost investment, it also shows that the Jays aren’t just crossing their fingers and hoping this shift works out.
By shifting Bautista full-time to right field before the season starts the Jays are, if not putting together their optimal defensive alignment, they are at least giving those affected the best chance to succeed based on recent history. That they were also able to acquire Nix gives them another alternative in case Encarnacion is not up to the task. The timing may kick the degree of difficulty up a notch in April, but over the course of the season, this looks like the right move for Toronto.
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
And down goes Buck Martinez! That’s always good news.
In his pre-season preview, Buck went on at length how Bautista was more valuable to the Jays at 3B because of positional scarcity. Obviously he was wrong, so it’s good to see the team immediately contradict him.
Buck was just looking forward to not having to pronounce Encarnacion’s name when the Jays are on defense. Now he gets to butcher it again all game long!
Well, Buck has never been the strongest logician. It is the case that Bautista, in baseball as a whole (i.e. as a trade asset or free agent) is more valuable as a third baseman. But the distribution of talent within the Jays roster is not the same as that for baseball as a whole- the Jays are relatively weak in the outfield, and have 2 plausible options at 3rd – and their best positional prospect waiting in the wings. Playing Encarnacion at third increases his trade value (provided he provides acceptable defence)- and Encarnacion is not part of the Blue Jays long-term plans.
Moving him to DH may also keep Rivera healthier too.
The issue with E5 is you never know where the ball is going to go once it leaves his hand. He is frightening, especially for the fans with seats behind first base. With an inexperienced, likely sub-par fielding firstbaseman this year it made total sense to use E5 at DH. Is Rivera really so bad at RF that he’s worse than E5 at third? And why now do you make that switch, after going all spring with JoBau playing third? What happened that made the Jays change their mind?
Exactly. EE always had decent range and reactions, he just refuses to set his feet consistently and chooses arm angles at random.
I believe in the Butterfield Effect.
It’s not a flat EE @ 3rd vs Rivera in RF equation.
You have to weigh in Bautista’s preference for RF, his longer term potential for injuries at 3rd, Lawrie’s play this spring, and potentially, Bautista and Rivera looking awful at their spring training positions.
Bautista was going back to RF before long anyway. Makes more sense to put him there all year then move him halfway through the season when Lawrie comes up.
Lawrie might be up this year. He never played triple A last year and he wasn’t exactly destroying AA. If we find a taker for Rivera, it becomes more likely that Lawrie will come up, Edwin might move over to 1st and Lind would go back to being the DH. No need to rush Lawrie up.
He had a pretty good season, offensively, in the Southern League (a league that favors pitchers generally) while being the 2nd youngest player. A lot of people thought he should’ve been MVP, and he didn’t miss being so by much. I would be very surprised if Lawrie isn’t in MLB by mid-season, either because of an injury or a trade. Not sure who would come up ahead of him at this point. Of course, this assumes that he doesn’t crash in the PCL, but players do tend to put up inflated offensive numbers in that league. So it probably boils down to his learning 3B; he didn’t look bad there during ST (his arm looked especially good), although a few months working on it wouldn’t hurt.
As a fan, I’d much sooner watch Lawrie even if he struggles a bit, than Rivera, who isn’t likely to be on the team after this season.
There is no way Lind goes back to being a DH. The Jays believe his struggles at the plate were directly related to him not playing the field.
Lawrie put up like a .360 wOBA as one of the youngest players in AA, I’d say he more than held his own.
I hope EE has great success, the team moves Lawrie back to 2B and can cut ties with Aaron Hill to save some $$$…
Interesting that there was no mention of lawrie here
he really impressed and spring and could be called up as soon as his clock gets pushed back a year.
they may of not wanted to move bautista for lawrie in 2 months, and decided to switch now. Call up lawrie in two months, move EE to DH and move rivera to anyone who will take him
Love this move. Viva edward in the second tier next year.
I really don’t see the need for Lawrie to be up for the big club in a year where the Jays are projected to be last in their division. I say let him stay in the minors all year long and learn third base. We already knew he had a good bat and could possibly handle himself hittingwise in the bigs, but a year at Vegas to learn the defensive side of his game seems like really the best thing, unless of course the Jays end up running away with the division, then sure bring him up.
Who’s doing the projecting? Certainly the Jays are better than the Orioles, and with the Yankees pitching issues, you never know.
Unless Encarnacion is traded midseason or injured, I think Brett Lawrie stays at AAA all season. I think this defensive alignment does make a trade much more likely.
The fact that you need a “you never know” in order to get into 3rd, means that its pointless to make any decision without longterm glasses on.
Few people have commented on my omission of Lawrie, so I thought I should touch on that. The reason I left him out of the discussion is that I don’t think position gets in his way of reaching the Majors. While he may now fit in at third base, I have read that he may need to move to the outfield. Had the Jays left Bautista at third, they may have simply started Lawrie in right. Point being, when he’s ready, I think they’ll find a position for him no matter what the alignment is.
A few notes: the general initial impression of Lawrie’s move to 3rd base this spring is that he has taken to it very quickly and may become a defensive asset at third base: therefore, I suspect the Jays would prefer to keep Lawrie at 3rd when he’s promoted. Lawrie’s bat could more or less force the Jays to find a place for Lawrie even if he’s blocked at third; but if he can be promoted to third base, then Lawrie may be promoted when he’s simply ready.
Shifting Bautista to RF now means you don’t have to move your best player mid-season to make room for the rookie; and if Encarnacion succeeds at third he becomes an attractive trade option for contending teams- and makes such a trade more likely. That would leave 3rd for Lawrie, if he’s ready for the Majors.
Nix certainly does not possess a superb glove at 3B. He’s made 17 errors in 68 games the past two seasons and was the leakiest of a leaky Indians infield last season.
Faced with the decision between all field/no hit Hannahan and some hit/no field Nix, the Indians regretted that they couldn’t combine the two and come up with Scott Spiezio.
-6ish UZR at 3B, also. Seems strange for the Jays. Name one thing Nix offers that E5 doesn’t.
He can play in the IF and has played all 3 OF positions, including CF where the team has no backup with Patterson and (ugh) Podsednik on the DL.
League minimum salary. They’re not in competition – Nix is a contingency.
Nix is brutal at 3b, his UZR was generous based on what I saw. Nix can play 2b OK though and maybe he gets to sub in for Hill when he does his next disappearing act
What an effect on a team/player a GM can have. Re: Encarnacion.
Dave Cameron on EE (E5), in November 2010: “He’s probably best known for his brutal defense at third base, where he’s earned the nickname E5.”
How does this affect the team in terms of (projected) WAR?
Bautista – 3B
Rivera – RF
Encarnacion – DH
versus
Bautista – RF
Rivera – DH
Encarnacion – 3B
Seems like sabermetric analysis would look at things like this (not intended to sound as snotty as it may read).
That’s a good start, but even MGL advises to look at 3 years.
Using 3-year ADR …
Bautista may be 1 WIN better than EE at 3B, and Rivera may be 1 WIN better than Bautista in RF, depending on if I am looking at it correctly.
The skill needed to play the corner OF positions are roughly the same, with perhaps RF being a bit easier for a RH player than LF.
But, “giving away” 2 WINs ($10M) due to defensive alignment could be a big deal.
Just by switching Bautista’s bat to 3B may give them another win due to the difference in replacement level (if I am reading it right).
If I am going about this the right way, this defensive alignment could perhaps almost negate the money saved by trading Wells. If, I’m wrong … well, I tried.
CircleChange- I’m not sure exactly how you get a 2 win differential. Over the last three years, Bautista has played about a season’s worth of innings both at 3B and in RF. His ADR (which is in the aggregate) over those years is -5 at 3B and -3 in RF. Encarnacion has over the same time frame put in the equivalent of 2 seasons at 3B, amassing a -22 ADR, or about -11/150. Rivera has only put in 330 innings in RF over the past 3 years with a ADR of -5. That scales to -20 over a normal season, but is, of course, a very small sample size. Rivera has played about a season and a half worth of games in left in the past three years, with an ADR of +6. Left field is, of course, generally populated by lesser defensive players than right, and so, to the extent that the components of ADR compare Rivera against other left-fielders, his ADR in LF overstates what an equivalent performance in RF would be. Even if we were to fold Rivera’s LF numbers in with those of RF, he would still only have an ADR of +1.
Taking these numbers at face value, the Jays would theoretically lose 4 runs of defence in RF and 6 at 3B- 10 runs altogether, or about 1 win, rather than 2.
I think the above calculations looks at this positional alignment in the most unfavourable light possible; even so, the margin is not so large that we should reject the evaluation of the Jays staff as to how these players should perform defensively over this season. And there are some good reasons to question the appropriateness of the numbers I ran above. There is the matter of taking Rivera’s LF numbers as equivalent to those of RF: if we were to give his RF numbers greater weight or scale his LF numbers to reflect a weaker population of fielders, we might easily conclude that Bautista is superior in RF. Another matter of note is that both Bautista and Encarnacion have shown significant improvement in their 3B numbers since joining the Jays and coming under the tutelage of their well-regarded infield coach Brian Butterfield, with Encarnacion having a larger change.
The hinge of this decision is, at least from an on-field perspective, Edwin Encarnacion. If he were to play 3B as poorly as he did with Cincinnati, this decision will hurt the Jays defensively. In wagering that he will surpass that (admittedly low) standard, the Jays are probably demonstrating as much faith in Butterfield as in Encarnacaion.
This move is all about Lawrie, IMHO. Farrel has made it clear that he wants Lawrie to take that 3b job and do it soon. By moving Bautista to the OF at the start of the season, it’s a much easier move to make: as soon as Lawrie is a better option than Encarnacion the job is his. Had they left Bautista at 3b and moved him to the OF mid season then Farrel woudl be dealing with a key veteran being POd at losing his job to a rookie.
Ah, reminds me of the famous saying “Writing is an adventure. To begin with, it is a toy and an amusement. Then it becomes a mistress, then it becomes a master, then it becomes a tyrant. The last phase is that just as you are about to be reconciled to your servitude, you kill the monster and fling him to the public.” – Winston Churchill