Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Greetings!

Travis Sawchik: I hope everyone here is enjoying their extended weekend and not shooting off fireworks in their quiet subdivisions ….

Kevin: Do you know when Dave’s trade value series is going to come out?

Travis Sawchik: I believe it is published during the All-Star break. It’s one of my favorite reads of the year

Kevin: Now that the website redesign is behind us, what’s the next big thing coming to Fangraphs?

Travis Sawchik: That’s a good question … And i am not privy to all plans. But with the Effectively Wild podcast added, Ad Free membership created, and the redesign it’s been a pretty eventful 2017 thus far

Justin Turner’s Bald Spot: Why am I not featured in the all star game?

Travis Sawchik: Every year there are deserving snubs …. Sorry, dude. Love the swing philosophy though

Hitters: Brewers might get the HR double-double this year! (At least 10 HR by 10 different players). How common is this?

Travis Sawchik: In the NL I would think it’s extremely rare

Joe Douglas: Happy 4th, a day early.

Travis Sawchik: And to you, sir!

Michelle: Hey Travis! Thanks for chatting. What are your feelings on the annual “all-star snubs” conversation?

Travis Sawchik: There are always deserving folks left off. I don’t love how the reserves are selected. Perhaps they should let a sabermetric-minded panel determine the team! Felipe Rivero deserves to be on the team

Travis Sawchik: But I’m not a huge All-Star game guy, myself. That all games are now televised, and the inter-league play element, have diminished the game, for me

Travis Sawchik: I’d prefer to have a radical realignment based upon geography, do away with interleague play, and only have the two leagues meet in the All-Star game and World Series

TKDC: Are there any additional teams besides the Pirates that should be “soft sellers” right now?

Travis Sawchik: Mets, Rays, Twins ….

Travis Sawchik: Teams with interesting cores but low playoff odds

Ray Searage: What’s wrong with Gerrit Cole?

Travis Sawchik: His fastball is averaging a career-high 96.2 mph … so I assume he’s healthy. He’s been hot and cold. The HR/FB is absurdly high and due to come down …. The No. 1 overall pick perhaps places unfair expectations upon him, he’s increased changeup usage this year, I have not studied how the pitch has played

Travis Sawchik: Slider is at a career-low usage, perhaps he needs to ramp that usage up

Travis Sawchik: When he was at his best in 2015, when he performed like a No. 1, he was able to locate the slider really well, particularly backing-footing it against lefties

Well-Beered Englishman: What’s for lunch?

Travis Sawchik: Chick-fil-a sandwich, no fries, unsweeted ice tea. Not exactly the picture of health. The other option was an entree of Trader Joe’s yellow fin tuna

Smoky Joe Wood: Is Sale better than Kershaw?

Travis Sawchik: At the moment, yes

The Average Sports Fan: Are the Cubs good?

Travis Sawchik: Man, I still think so. But we’re at the midway point now — and their performance is arguably the single biggest surprise of the season. They face some short-term and long-term pitching questions

chuck: What could the Tigers expect in return for Verlander if they put him on the block with all that money and time he’s due?

Travis Sawchik: It looks like he’s owed $28 million next year and again in 2019 with a vesting option for 2022 … if he’s a 4-winish pitcher he’ll still have value. I think he has some value but the return is not going to rebuild a farm system

Bill: What are your thoughts on the juiced ball? Seems like the evidence proves it is juiced but I think calling it juiced implies MLB did it on purpose, which I tend to think they didn’t do. What do you think?

Travis Sawchik: The ball does seem different, though, I think the HR surge goes beyond the ball. If the ball was purposefully made differently, that mades it difficult for analysts to compare year-to-year performance

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Jake Odorizzi has struggled this season, primarily with the long ball (he has something like a dozen straight starts with a homer, excluding the injury-shortened one in April). Is he actually pitching materially worse than before, or is this what a victim of the home run surge looks like?

Travis Sawchik: Remember when everyone was telling high-spin Jake to pitch up the zone? Maybe that was a mistake (and a suggestion made without knowledge of ball changes and/or a deepening of the HR surge).

Kevin: with the increased prevalence and effectiveness of the infield shift, could there be a change in how the defensive spectrum is valued/arranged given a possible reduction in the importance of the shortstop defensively? Could Catcher or Centrefield surpass Shortstop in defensive value?

Travis Sawchik: Great question. I do think shifts, by their nature, reduce the importance of infield range since you are essentially asking a greater number of infielders to cover a smaller area. Shortstop defense will always be important but it’s possible it has lost relative value compared to catcher and center field

Lucroy: There was talk last year that Lucroy turned down a trade to the Indians because they wouldn’t guarantee he’d stay at catcher. With the fall off in his pitch framing this year, is it possible the Indians were seeing something that other teams didn’t–i.e., could they have been anticipating the fall off in his defense?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think so. If the Indians thought Lucroy was going to keep losing value, I don’t think they would have offered Francisco Mejia

Brandon: That’s a lame lunch, Travis.

Travis Sawchik: I suppose I don’t disagree too strongly but I am a fan of the Chick-fil-A sandwich and on a time crunch …

Matt: Is the solution to Cubs’ said pitching woes, for Theo/Jed to suck it up and deal an asset (Schwarbs, Baez, Russell, Happ, or Eloy) that stings , in order to land a Top O rotation SP?

Travis Sawchik: Cubs eventually have to move some of that surplus, but the issue is some of those players are less dreamy at the moment

Pat: So, who goes on Detroit? JD, J. Wilson, Avila. How much $$ would they need to eat to trade Verlander? Yesterday’s stinker sure didn’t help them move him.

Travis Sawchik: I think you nailed it on their most attractive assets … I think Verlander has some limited value

seth: any initial thoughts on how the new international spending rules are working? we know the top guys are going to lose money, are other guys doing better (like the 100k guys getting more like 300k from the penalty teams)? Or is it just a deal for the owners?

Travis Sawchik: It seems like a very pro-owner deal. It would be different if there was a mechanism forcing IFA dollars into MLB veteran payroll … but there is nothing forcing the owners to redirect those funds elsewhere. There is no salary floor

Bat flip: Braves are 6.5 back of wildcard Rockies who have lost 9 of 10. They’re about to get Freeman back to fill a big hole at third. At the deadline they should?

Travis Sawchik: The Braves are in a weird spot. But I wouldn’t give up too much for an upgrade. This isn’t a year to go for it. Now, if there’s an Ivan Nova-like 2016 deadline deal out there, perhaps

Steve: Cole needs to throw his two seamer more.  His 4 seamer is too damn straight!  And he seems to rely on his 4 seamer more when he’s in trouble because velocity

Travis Sawchik: According to PITCHf/x he’s throwing a career-low rate of four-seamers

mike sixel: So, no interleague play, so I can’t watch NL players in person if I live in MN? How is that good for the fans, exactly? Every other sport on the planet has “inter league” games for a reason.

Travis Sawchik: https://www.google.com/search?q=Coldplay+rules+60+minutes&source=lnms&…:

Travis Sawchik: Coldplay Rule No. 7: Always keep an element of mystery

Travis Sawchik: I miss that about pre-interleague

Travis Sawchik: You didn’t quite know how good the other league was in comparison

Travis Sawchik: Maybe I’m in the minority … but i’d also rather see more games in the league, since teams are competing for wild cards

Travis Sawchik: For instance, I don’t think it’s good that if you live in Pittsburgh you only see the Dodgers, Giants and Nationals once a year

Aaron: The 1998 Yankees had 10 players with 10 home runs.  Of all the Sox and Yankees offenses of the 90’s and 2000’s that would routinely score 900+ runs that was the only team to do it. The Rockies have never in the team’s history even been close to having 10 players with 10 or more home runs, so I’d go out on a limb and say that no NL team has ever done it.

Travis Sawchik: I trust your research. It does seem like a quite a feat

Tomlin: Is it inevitable at this point that I will eventually be removed from the Indians starting rotation?  The number of hits I have given up is greater than the number of innings I have pitched.

Travis Sawchik: Clevinger has a legit swing-and-miss pitch in is slider, Bauer might be reaching another level and Salazar has All-Star upside … so I think Tomlin might be the odd man out eventually

Brandon: More so because you skipped on the waffle fries. If you’re making a CFA run, you have to at least get them — you’re already there!

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, they’re good but I’m trying to reduce fry and soda intake …. My wife and I have a no-soda rule for our home

Chris Sale!: Can we talk about how Chris Sale has put up 5.1 WAR this season? 5.1 through 17 starts and 120 IP! If you want to play the pace game, he’s going to clear 10 WAR. That’s insane

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, it’s incredible. He’s basically Randy Johnson with a changeup right now. What’s more amazing is that body and delivery has never broken down. We really don’t know anything about pitchers do we?

Aaron: Do you think the Indians will try to trade Jason Kipnis? If so, would he generate interest?

Travis Sawchik: Not yet … but Jose Ramirez can play second … and Yandy Diaz is intriguing if he can more often get the ball in the air. I don’t think we’ve seen Kipnis be Kipnis yet this year. Remember, he missed much of the spring

Will: I was offered Donaldson and Miggy in a trade for Kershaw. Whats your opinion of these two underperformers the rest of the year? Its a 12 team keeper league ( I also have Sale, Cueto, Paxton, Barrios, Ray and A Sanchez).

Travis Sawchik: Interesting. I’d rather have the Best Player on the Planet … or at least one of the three competing for the crown

Steve: I know Cole’s throwing his four seamer less but it’s still too much and in too predictable of spots is my point.

Travis Sawchik: Cole believes establishing fastball command is the key to longevity and success

Aaron: Exactly. Yandy could potentially exceed Kipnis’s output and still get a prospect or additional piece.

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, but Indians would be selling low on an important clubhouse guy (FWIW)… I see it as a possibility down the road, just not ye t

Ingoodguys: At the halfway mark, the Royals have a better record than the Cubs, and Jason Vargas is an all star with the best ERA in the American League

Travis Sawchik: Humans are not very good ad predicting things … and neither are our projection systems!

Funkhouser: What’s going on with Matt Carpenter? Walk rate up, but too many fly balls killing his babip? I’m waiting on a bounceback but his approach seems different than 2015.

Travis Sawchik: His 0.52 GB/FB ratio is a career extreme … But he’s been a 0.70 guy in past seasons … Maybe a little too extreme in approach? Not sure

timmer: Hey Travis!  Do you know of anyplace where I could find a WPA split by opponent?  I love the idea of some guys as Cub-killers or Reds-killers or the like and I think it would be fun to look at guys who have had high WPAs against certain teams to see who really kills who in a win-probability sense.  Thanks.

Travis Sawchik: I’ve never tried to search for that. Does it exist on our split leaderboards?

Matt: Nationals and Dodger both have lineups that are ridiculous this year. Which team’s success is more of a function of guys having career years vs. this being a true talent level?

Travis Sawchik: Both lineups are very talented … I think the Dodgers have a little more depth, but Nationals have Bryce

Nats Fan: Given David Robertson’s bad June, who do the Nats target at closer?

Travis Sawchik: Justin Wilson might make some sense

Matt: With the Cubs’ DL starting to empty, what base OF alignment best balances their offensive and defensive needs? Attendant to that question: can Happ play CF on a regular basis?

Travis Sawchik: Maddon has thrown Kris Bryant in CF on occasion, and in Cleveland Lonnie Chisenhall played some CF earlier in the season, so maybe Happ would not embarrass himself out there

Travis Sawchik: Re: Lucroy question earlier …. I have a post on his framing decline http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jonathan-lucroys-mysterious-decline/

Sandy Kazmir: Why do “people” clamor that Amed Rosario should be in the show, but there is no similar outcry for Willy Adames who is only three months older, but substantially out-hitting (122 v 115 wRC+) the bigger market prospect?

Travis Sawchik: The Mets have a bit more vocal of a fanbase …. and it’s a frustrated fan base

Steve: So why can’t Cole can try to establish fastball command with his two seamer then?  And unfair expectations for a 1st round pick?  Lol. Maybe I should tell my boss she has unfair expectations of me for my salary.  I’m sure that’d go over well.

Travis Sawchik: What I mean is if you’re drafted 1-1, you are expected to be an elite No. 1…. How many 1-1s have actually become that though?

Steve: Corey Seager has a 146 wRC+……

Travis Sawchik: He does! I searched for the wrong Seager.

JDX: The fact that Votto leads the NL in OPS and wRC+ with a .299 BABIP is wild, right?

Travis Sawchik: That’s pretty wild. I’d really love to see him playing meaningful baseball

Big Joey: Is Lindor going to have a HUGE second half?

Travis Sawchik: I think he’ll have a more productive second half … Not that his collective work has been awful

Dion W: Against GB Pitchers what is an ideal FB% and HC% to have if you’re looking for homeruns

Travis Sawchik: Ideal? Not sure there is a number. I think it’s more about swing path, but you’d certainly want those rates to be in the plus range

VanExelent: Bob Seager?

Travis Sawchik: Ive had a rough day with Seagers

Cory G: So in the long term, who is the better overall player. Miguel Sano or Andrew Benentendi?

Travis Sawchik: I like both. But Sano’s power is special … I’ll take the guy with a plus eye and 80-power

Baseballfanman: What’s the best minor league team name?

Travis Sawchik: Biscuits?

Steve: Lindor is hitting 15% more fly balls than last year – not working for him

Travis Sawchik: It was working in April …. Should be trying to hit groundballs? I think it’s more about expanding his zone. He was locked in like Thames in April

Mean Tweeter: Is Jose Ramirez better than Francisco Lindor now?

Travis Sawchik: Ramirez is a top 5 player in the AL in fWAR right now … few have had a better first half

Neal Huntington: Who should I trade at the deadline? Who am I actually going to trade at the deadline?

Travis Sawchik: Well, if you still want to trade McCutchen he’s done you a huge favor with his June … and it might make some sense to move him with his value spiked. I

Travis Sawchik: ‘d try to move Nicasio …

Travis Sawchik: I’d hang on to Cole

Graham: Hi Travis, the salary structure in baseball could use an overhaul. With veterans making more than their fair share, it seems the players’ association largely wants to maintain the status quo. What, if anything, will prompt change?

Travis Sawchik: MLBPA seems happy with status quo even as they keep losing percentage shares of revenue … Baseball’s middle class is being pinched but everyone’s getting rich so I’m not sure if anyone is noticing

Jay: Do the Royals sell high on Vargas or try to contend?

Travis Sawchik: I’d be trying to selll

VanExelent: Speaking of Seagers, is there any way to represent how much of a statistical anomaly is must be to have produced two children who became elite baseball players?

Travis Sawchik: Somewhere near getting struck by two lightning bolts

TB 1: You can see how the Cubs have regressed. The starting rotation performed above their true talent level in 2016. Without changes this looks like a 82-85 win team. Besides Rizzo and Bryant the Cubs also aren’t great on offense either.

Travis Sawchik: Cubs were an elite defensive team, too. I didn’t hear many folks saying to tamper expectations this spring

Pixburgh: You’ve been living in Pittsburgh how long and you still say ‘soda’?

Travis Sawchik: 4 years, 3 months … I suppose, I do. I was raised in ‘Pop’ country (Ohio)

Big Joey: Lindor has a sub .250 AVG, I’d say he’s disappointing

Travis Sawchik: To a degree, still a league-average bat at shortstop with a Platinum Glove on the resume

Tony: If MLB wants to shorten games they should eliminate the home run trot around the bases. Just score the runs and walk back to the dugout. With the proliferation of home runs that’s adding a couple minutes to games now. And isn’t that akin to the four-pitch walk?

Travis Sawchik: Nah, I gotta see this …

Anon: Who has the best baseball name?

Travis Sawchik: Sonny Gray?

Jay: Does Justin Wilson have the pedigree the Nats are looking for? I’m sure the last thing Rizzo wants is to bring in an inexperienced (but expensive) closer only to find out that he’s Drew Storen/Blake Treinen 2.0.

Travis Sawchik: I’d be more interested in acquiring the K rate

Lee: If the league was serious about shortening games they would cut down on the commercials and the time between innings.  That’s by far the biggest reason

Travis Sawchik: I think the biggest issue is actually on batters, stepping out of the box, etc

Anon: Can a player be good with a .150 average? Or is there some lower bound where batting average matters enough?

Travis Sawchik: Joey Gallo has been slightly above league average with a .194 batting average, so it’s possible if there’s a lot of punch and patience

Joe Douglas: I’m just happy the ASG doesn’t “count” anymore. If given a choice between player x getting stubbed and the game being an exhibition, I’d much prefer the later.

Travis Sawchik: True. I’d be interested in a US vs. World format, too.

infrinjinsin: Best way to shorten games, ban batting gloves with straps on them.

Travis Sawchik: YES!!!!

Buster Posey: No way Sonny Gray’s baseball name is better than mine!

Travis Sawchik: Buster Posey is pretty good

Travis Sawchik: Brandon Belt, too

RoboCop: after Sano and Stanton, who are the other 6 bats you’d like to see round out this years Home Run Derby?

Travis Sawchik: Altuve, Harper, Gallo, Bellinger, Judge and Bumgarner (If he was healthy)

Terence: 2015 Astros had 11 players with 10+ HR (and two with 9).

Travis Sawchik: For the record

jon: Is julio Urias done for good?  or can he recover from the surgery that ruined Johan Santana?

Travis Sawchik: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/239104638/dodgers-julio-urias-has-season…

Travis Sawchik: Pitching is tough

Travis Sawchik: Modern medicine is amazing

Travis Sawchik: He has a chance but he’s more of an unknown

capconstrained: Can we get the latest Sawchik update on Sanchez?

Travis Sawchik: The best thing that ever happened to Sanchez was that post

Anon: Which player have you been the wrongest on?

Travis Sawchik: Outside of Gary Sanchez, I didn’t think Chris Sale would hold up

Jake, from State Farm: Does Tanner Roark have an even year/odd year curse going? 2014 and 2016 treated him very well, 2015 and 2017 not so much.

Travis Sawchik: No idea! He’s another guy getting killed by the HR

SpicyBoy: What could Lucroy even get in a trade? Does he really have any value?

Travis Sawchik: I can’t imagine there’s a ton of value … Rangers are going to regret that deal for a while

Travis Sawchik: Alight folks, go enjoy your holiday. Get outside, or if you are, get off your tablet …

Travis Sawchik: Thanks for stopping by.

Travis Sawchik: Be good, do good