Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

12:04
Travis Sawchik: Greetings!

12:05
Travis Sawchik: It appears the chat did not post early (probably user error) so I will check back in a few minutes after some questions have entered the queue …. Thanks for your patience

12:09
Travis Sawchik: Tarp is coming off …. Chat will resume at 1215 pm est

12:09
Travis Sawchik: BTW, happy Trade Value week

12:15
johnny5alive: who wins tonight

12:15
Travis Sawchik: Judge has to be the favorite, right?

12:16
Travis Sawchik: I didn’t think we’d see another Stanton any time soon and we have one

12:16
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Suppose the Cubs don’t get it together and miss the playoffs this year. If they were mediocre long enough, could they regain their status as lovable losers who somehow put it all together for one amazing season?

12:17
Travis Sawchik: NL Central foes and opposing fans would suggest that would require a rather long stretch of mediocrity

12:17
CarGo with fork in back: Does CarGo turn things around this year in any way?

12:19
Travis Sawchik: It’s been really ugly … How big/how long of an issue has shoulder been?

12:20
A. Reitz: Stanton wins, Home Park. Judge presses.

12:20
Travis Sawchik: Might Stanton press in front of his home fans? He does have veteran experience

12:20
Travis Sawchik: I don’t think Judge will pull a Piazza

12:21
Marshall: What is the probability that Kershaw ends up winning the Cy Young this year?

12:22
Travis Sawchik: Given the nature of the position he could get hurt at any moment, and Max Scherzer has been great, but I will say 38.7%

12:22
Lonnie Chisenhall fan club: Is Chisenhall having the quietest good season in the majors? Seems like he joined the flyball revolution but no one noticed. Am I being a homer thinking he keeps up a relatively good pace or is this just an extended hot streak with regression coming?

12:22
Travis Sawchik: Chisenhall is having a great year. He’s third on the Indians roster in WAR (1.6)

12:22
Travis Sawchik: His fly-ball rate and HR/FB rates are at career bests

12:22
Travis Sawchik: And I believe he’s 19th in wRC+ (147)

12:23
Travis Sawchik: He’s always had a pretty left-handed swing …. And perhaps he’s a guy who has benefited from a slight adjustment and experience

12:23
Travis Sawchik: With Chisenhall back healthy, and Zimmer up, and the rotation looking better, I’m not sure the Indians have a glaring need at the deadline

12:23
The Fans: So happy for Andrew McCutchen

12:24
Travis Sawchik:

Andrew McCutchen’s career line coming into 2017:
.292/.381/.487 .869 138 OPS+
This season:
.295/.381/.526 .907 135 OPS+
#Pirates
8 Jul 2017
12:24
Travis Sawchik: It’s like he never left

12:24
Travis Sawchik: Well, the defense might not be coming back … but perhaps it took him a really long time to notice a swing flaw and make an adjustment

12:25
Paul Strelow: Hey old friend! MadBum gonna be the ace he’s always been for me down the stretch?

12:25
Travis Sawchik: Hello old friend! Until he proves otherwise, I would not bet against him

12:25
MooseknuckleCurves: Is Ryan Zimmerman’s amazing summer moved on into the dying of the light?

12:27
Travis Sawchik: Not a great trend … but it’s a long season. And I do think he’s made real performance-level gains … He wasn’t going to wRC+ 300 all season

12:28
Pepe: Will Altuve/Correa end up as the best middle IF combo ever?

12:28
Travis Sawchik: ‘Ever’ is a long time

12:28
Travis Sawchik: But I don’t think I’d rather have another combo in today’s game

12:28
S: Is it possible that Kyle Freeland has been successful at Coors partly because he grew up (and pitched) at altitude?

12:30
Travis Sawchik: I actually asked Kyle about this year this year and he didn’t really have a great answer … But, it couldn’t hurt, right? He should have a better understanding of spin at altitude than any other ML pitcher

12:30
Daro: Stanton wins tonight! 100% sure!

12:31
Travis Sawchik: I could see it …. He might want to remind America that he was Judge before Judge

12:31
Alastar: Jose Ramirez’s season this year is looking a lot like Betts’ season last year (if not better). If he continues this pace for the rest of the year, what will it take for him to be in the same conversation as a player like Betts?

12:32
Travis Sawchik: Ramirez has been incredible … If he continues his first-half pace he’ll be in the MVP (and Betts) conversation

12:33
Jake: Justin Turner legit MVP candidate this year? Or will he be hard pressed to be out Harper, Goldie, and his teammate Seager?

12:33
Travis Sawchik: He’s having a remarkable season but it’s getting a bit lost amid all the other incredible seasons ….. I think he’ll have a hard time contending for it

12:33
Dylan T: Rage rage against the dying of the light

12:34
Travis Sawchik: Yes. Always!

12:34
Joe Douglas: Happy Monday. Bellinger tonight, I hope 🙂

12:34
Travis Sawchik: Happy Monday, Joe. Bellinger has my favorite swing in the derby … and RF is a little more favorable at Marlins Park (I think)

12:35
gonny jomes: what value do we place on clubhouse chemistry? How many runs?

12:35
Travis Sawchik: ML teams would love to know. What is the value of a guy like Daniel Murphy helping Zimmerman get to a new performance level? Pretty valuable

12:36
graveswright: Addison Reed get you a top 50-75 prospect?

12:37
Travis Sawchik: I wouldn’t ….but I love protecting prospects. If a team is at the right place on the win curve and needs some bullpen help, I suppose you could justify it. I don’t love FB pitchers in my bullpen

12:37
Travis Sawchik: Unless they are striking out the world

12:38
Jason: With the way this season has gone, and with his impending free agency, would the Cubs ever consider trading Arrieta?  What kind of return would that bring?

12:39
Travis Sawchik: I think Arrieta is most valuable to Cubs if he can discover his 2014-15 form …. And I think most people still think the Cubs are good and more likely to be buyers than sellers

12:39
another bad dynasty manager: Travis: are you surprised there haven’t been any major deals struck yet by buyers and sellers?

12:40
Travis Sawchik: A little bit … but I think some teams are still deciding whether they believe in themselves …

12:41
Abaseballnut: About how much is work ethic worth when trading and for players

12:41
Travis Sawchik: Makeup is always important … I’d want to see it more in a younger player, personally, who still has development and projection ahead

12:42
Moltar: The problem with “chemistry” is the chicken-and-egg debate: Does chemistry breed winning, or does winning breed chemistry? I’d argue for the latter, but I would also argue that the egg came first because dinosaurs were born from eggs for millions of years before chickens existed 🙂

12:43
Travis Sawchik: Winning is fun, losing is not so fun ….. There have been a number of good teams throughout history that have had players that did not like each other. But this is a frontier teams are attempting to better understand

12:43
Travis Sawchik: But I’m OK with some mystery remaining in the sport

12:44
Jay: I dont think the Indians have any glaring holes either, but would it make sense for them to add another postseason trustworthy reliever to possible shorten games if they still have some rotation questions (with Bauer/Salazar/Clevinger going 4IP then going to new trustworthy reliever to bridge gap to Logan/Shaw/Miller/Allen?)

12:45
Travis Sawchik: Yeah, every team expect maybe the Astros is hunting another dominant reliever … I’d be curious to see what Salazar could do in a relief role. I think Bauer and Clevinger have made enough games that the club doesn’t have to look at a Salazar as a starter in 2017

12:45
Travis Sawchik: Plus, he really only has two pitches he trusts … so his profile is kind of bullpen-y

12:46
Joe Douglas: For all the talk of Cutch having an amazing June and appearing back to career levels, I think we could still be looking at a situation where he has not improved his trade value relative to the offseason. Reason being is that currently there is very little market for position players with most competing teams being set there, and needing pitching. Thoughts? Certainly in a vacuum he has helped his value, but the collective need for positions players is relatively little, and many are available.

12:47
Travis Sawchik: Yeah, it does not appear to be a great market for position players …. Perhaps his value could be higher in the offseason. And perhaps his value is still greater to the Pirates in 2018 than what return is possible.

12:47
AMQP: Schwarber, Heyward, Baez, Russell, Contreras, and Zobrist have a combined OPS+ under 90. This is the worst case scenario for the Cubs, right?

12:48
Travis Sawchik: Everything went right for the Cubs in 2016. Very little is going right this year … but Cubs kind of look like a buy low stock, too

12:48
DTH: apparently Wade Davis chatted up Brian Duensing about his mechanics, and Duensing has a 2.79 ERA and is striking out 11 per 9. Brian Duensing! clubhouse dynamics are fun.

12:49
Travis Sawchik: Maybe instead of “chemistry” being thought of as guys getting along, it should really be looked at as guys learning from each other, sharing, and adding value … They don’t have to be BFFs, but can they make each other better? Are they open and passionate about the game?

12:50
Jason: If you got to play, how many homers would you hit in the Celebrity Softball game that’s played after the HR Derby tonight?

12:50
Travis Sawchik: How deep is the fence?

12:50
Travis Sawchik: I’m more of a high OBP, low power guy ….not great for the event. More of a gamer

12:51
Travis: How bout that Freddie Freeman?

12:51
Billy: After Freddie Freeman’s move to 3rd, who else could move up the defensive spectrum

12:51
Brent: Early thought on 3b prospect Freddie Freeman’s performance so far?

12:52
Travis Sawchik: This guy is an amazing athlete, right? I haven’t watch him play much but it looks like he’s been OK …

12:52
Travis Sawchik: UZR/150 isn’t pretty but it’s a small sample

12:53
Travis Sawchik: Carlos Santana is a guy who is going to be a free agent and volunteered to play some third base when the Indians were in a pinch a few years ago …. I’d be curious to see what he could do at third with extended reps

12:53
Matty P: Pirates are playing well with Starling Marte coming back soon. Cubs are mediocre with the Brewers playing (slightly) over their heads. I don’t think they should sell Cole or Cutch. Thoughts?

12:54
Travis Sawchik: I wrote a couple weeks ago that I though the Pirates should be “soft sellers” and keep Cole and Cutch. Unless they are blown away, I think I’m sticking to that stance. Move Nicasio, see if there’s a market for Watson, but the division is shaping up to be a real toss-up …so I could see a ‘Hold’ position, too

12:54
JIMMY V: Thoughts on Bautista? All the projection systems have his power returning for the second half but I am very skeptical.  Contact skills and plate discipline have returned to career norms the last few months but there is a noticeable difference in his hard hit rates this year versus years in the past.

12:55
Travis Sawchik: Bautista has tried to do everything in his power to rage against the dying of the light …. but no one I am aware of is immune to the effects of time

12:56
Travis Sawchik: We start losing visual acuity at Age 29 … which might make it difficult for hitters to improve performance deeper into careers as have athletes in other sports

12:57
Babe Lincoln: Anything you disagree with on the Trade Value list so far?

12:57
Travis Sawchik: Dave does a great job of the list. It’s my favorite series of the year at FG

12:59
Travis Sawchik: There are always cases to made for certain players that just miss the cut …. I’ve always been a Brandon Belt fan. I’d love to see what his perceived value would be in a different home ballpark

12:59
Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: With Marte coming back shortly, can you foresee the Pirates bolstering the pen in order to make a run at this thing?  I’m not convinced that they’re worse than any of the three teams currently above them in the division with Marte back in the lineup.

1:00
Travis Sawchik: The division is a real mess, so that’s a real opportunity …. I wouldn’t want to bet too much on this team, but I don’t think blowing it up would make much sense

1:00
Matty P: How brilliant was that Jose Ramirez extension before the season started?

1:00
Travis Sawchik: 5y/$26m and two club options? Unreal. Ramirez has almost been worth that deal in half a season

1:01
Reginald Denton III: Prior to last week, folks were still singing the praises of Yonder Alonso, even though he didn’t do anything in June.  Then last week he heated back up.  What do you see him doing ROS?

1:01
Travis Sawchik: Being an above-average offensive player … This is a new performance level

1:02
Colby: I am excited to see how close Jose Ramirez is to Francisco Lindor on the Trade Value list.  As a tribe fan I consider them 1a and 1b in terms of value to the team, but lindor has the name and ramirez has the production.

1:02
Travis Sawchik: I’ve seen the list. I could tell you but I’d have to …

1:03
Travis Sawchik: For me, Lindor is still more valuable since he’s an elite SS defender ….but Ramirez is one of the most valuable assets in the game. Indians have the most valuable left of the infield in the game, right?

1:03
Jake: What is the market for Jose Abreu? He’s having a pretty nice season on a pretty cheap contract but who needs a 1B? Dodgers, Yanks, Stros?

1:04
Travis Sawchik: It’s just not a great market for bats

1:04
Dabo Swinney: Hey, Travis. You think we’re gonna play for another national championship this year?  I do.

1:04
Travis Sawchik: Hey, Dabo. I think you’re gonna miss Mr. Watson

1:05
BumGarner’s Brother: Cueto, what gives? Is this a mirage or has something changed for him? Any hope for a turn around this year?

1:05
Travis Sawchik: He’s pitched 1,751 career innings ….. That’s a lot of mileage

1:05
johnny5alive: The Mets are losing lots of players after this year.  They have not shown the willingness to spend in the recent past.  Should they do a complete tear-down? I am mostly thinking they could get a good haul for DeGrom, if they decided to go that way.  I just can’t see this team being competitive next year

1:05
Travis Sawchik: I

1:06
Travis Sawchik: ‘d be pretty aggressive in a tear down

1:06
Travis Sawchik: I’d explore the market for deGrom and hope to be overwhelmed

1:06
Houzer: Does Avila + Norris for Addison Russel sound ok?

1:07
Travis Sawchik: I’m keeping Russell if I’m the Cubs … Still has a chance to be an elite two-way shortstop. Those don’t grow on trees

1:07
Dudas Luca: The Mets have a lot of trade chips, albeit not many of significant value. Who do you think they should definitely find a way to move and at least get *something* for?

1:07
Travis Sawchik: I do!

1:07
Mike Miss: Could Aaron Nola ever be a top 30 starting pitcher?

1:08
Travis Sawchik: Yeah, in fact. He might already be there

1:08
E: “Dave does a great job of the list. It’s my favorite series of the year at FG” – Dave doesn’t read these chats…give us a hot take!

1:08
Travis Sawchik: Ha. He might!

1:08
Travis Sawchik: Justin Turner could be in my top 50

1:08
bruno: Do you think Ian Desmond will rebound in the second half? The Rockies have been surprisingly anemic offensively.

1:09
Travis Sawchik: Rockies need Desmond and CarGo to get going, for sure

1:09
Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: Do you think that Taillon’s injury history will preclude him from Cameron’s trade value list?  What sort of trade value would you peg him as having?

1:09
Travis Sawchik: I don’t. A lot of value. Stay tuned!

1:10
Jason: I read somewhere that Javy Baez grew up playing CF and would still love to play there.  Assuming Almora doesn’t break through with the bat, should the Cubs move Baez there to solve that hole or is his glove too valuable in the infield?  Of course, you could argue Almora’s glove in the OF makes up for his mediocre hitting and nothing should be done.

1:10
Travis Sawchik: I’d place more defensive value at infield positions than CF at Wrigley …

1:10
Travis Sawchik: But I’d be curious to see what he could do in center. I wonder how his range would play there?

1:11
Colby: Gotta expect 4 Indians on the top 40 trade value list right?

1:11
Travis Sawchik: Indians have a great core

1:11
Moltar: Why doesn’t MLB give the futures game a better tv slot? I would love to see it before or after the HR Derby rather than the “celebrity” game. Or maybe put in on Sunday Night Baseball instead of a normal game? I doubt the players are dying to play sunday night before the break anyway.

1:12
Travis Sawchik: Futures Game deserves a better spot. In some ways it’s more interesting than the ASG

1:12
Travis Sawchik: And since MLB’s draft does not include players going directly to the top level of the game, the Futures Game ought to have a better time slot

1:13
Matt: The trend of later season buy/sell decisions in continuing. Should MLB look at pushing back the non-waiver deadline?

1:13
Travis Sawchik: The second wild card has really complicated matters ….I could see moving the deadline back

1:14
toki: Who would could you see the Cubs targeting more, Doolittle or Britton(if he is available)?

1:14
Travis Sawchik: Britton if he looks healthy

1:14
Jeb: Do you think Belt is available and if so, what do you think a reasonable price would be? MLB ready players with 4< years + a top 100 prospect or is that way too low?

1:15
Travis Sawchik: I want to see Belt traded to get him in a new park … and to see how the industry values him. I’m curious

1:15
Moltar: Shouldn’t the dodgers be focusing their deadline needs on doing whatever possible to not have Kershaw start on short rest every series again?

1:16
Travis Sawchik: A good Rich Hill would help

1:16
E: Every time I search for Jose Ramirez on Fangraphs I’m pretty sure I click on the wrong one twice

1:16
Travis Sawchik: I’ve been there

1:16
Jumbotron: Does it still feel like the White Sox dealing Robertson is a sure thing? 13 million next year isn’t nothing…might that turn some teams away?

1:16
Travis Sawchik: I think there’s enough teams in need to create a market

1:17
Travis Sawchik: Thanks for the questions everyone!

1:17
Travis Sawchik: Enjoy Trade Value week

1:17
Travis Sawchik: And enjoy the ASG break

1:17
Travis Sawchik: Talk to you next week. Be good, do good





A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.

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