Projecting Zach Granite

Over the weekend, the Twins called up speedy center fielder Zach Granite from Triple-A. Granite is a KATOH darling who made my preseason 2017 All-KATOH Team and has been featured regularly on the Fringe Five. Granite’s a stats-over-scouts guy through and through.

I first became aware of Granite around this time last year, when he ranked very highly on KATOH’s midseason top-100 list. At the time, there was little to his profile aside from elite contact and speed. He stole an outrageous 56 bases and played elite defense in center, while also running a strikeout rate in the single-digits. Despite his extreme contact, he only managed to hit a respectable-but-punchless .295/.347/.382.

He’s ramped up his hitting this year. In 59 games at the Triple-A level, he slashed .360/.412/.492, including a .446/.503/.619 tear over his last 36 games. His stolen bases and single-digit strikeout rate remain, but he appears to be driving the ball a bit more than he did in the past. His ISO has spiked to a not-quite-punchless .131, while his BABIP has jumped to .394. Twenty-one extra-base hits in 59 games is respectable, even if that total has been aided by his speed.

My KATOH system pegs him for 9.1 WAR over his first six seasons by the stats-only method and 6.9 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates his prospect ranking. Those marks place him 14th and 41st, respectively, among prospects.

To put some faces to Granite’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps. I calculated a Mahalanobis distance between Granite’s Triple-A performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. A lower “Mah Dist” reading indicates a closer comp.

Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

Over the winter Eric Longenhagen voiced pessimism about Granite’s long-term outlook due his unusual slash-and-dash approach. He gave him a 40 FV, which is the equivalent of a fourth outfielder.

Granite is a 70 runner and plays an above-average center field. His hand-eye coordination and minimalist ground-ball approach to hitting lead to constant, worm-killing contact. It also leads to zero game power. Granite’s swing is extremely linear and his approach includes mostly bunting, slashing and sprinting his way on base. He was successful this year to the tune of a .295 average. He also stole 56 bases. This approach probably won’t work as well at the major-league level with better defenses but Granite’s BABIP this season was a modest .312 and he still found his way on base consistently. Granite’s ability to play center field well, run and put the bat on the ball points toward a near-certain big-league role of some kind, but it will likely be as a fourth or fifth outfielder because of the lack of power.

This is a fair argument, as big-league defenses are obviously superior to minor-league ones. I don’t doubt that this will pose a challenge for Granite, but I’m skeptical that succeeding at Triple-A is that much different than succeeding in the majors. It’s worth noting that scoutssaid the same types of things about another KATOH crush — Mallex Smith — who’s currently hitting .333/.403/.425 for Tampa Bay as a speedy center fielder.

Given Granite’s track record of success in the upper levels, he should at least be able to hold his own against big-league pitching. The projections — a blend of Steamer and ZiPS — forecast a .265/.309/.345 slash line for Granite, which works out to just an 73 wRC+. That isn’t particularly exciting, but given his top-notch speed, Granite won’t necessarily need to hit much, so long as he provides value in other ways. Pair a 73 wRC+ with plus defense in center and good baserunning, and you might wind up with a three-win player, à la Billy Hamilton. And given his minor-league performance, I’d posit that ZiPS and Steamer are even a little light on Granite’s bat.

Regardless of how much Granite ultimately produces offensively, he’ll be fun to watch. Guys with double-plus speed are always fun to watch, especially when they rely on it as much as Granite does. Twins fans can look forward to slap singles, drag bunts, stolen bases and great outfield defense. He’s quite an unusual player, but my math says his skills will be more than enough to carve out a productive big-league career.