Tyler Naquin: Breakout or No?

On February 18, the Reds signed outfielder Tyler Naquin to a minor league contract with a non-roster invitation to major league spring training. It’s not the kind of transaction that generally generates analysis here at FanGraphs. It was just a standard depth move at the time, the kind of signing every team makes multiples of every off-season. Flash forward nearly three months later, and after an impressive spring training, Naquin is among the top 15 in wRC+ in the National League and part of the best offense in the senior circuit. The Reds utilize a daily strategy of trying to outslug their opponent to make up for what has been a miserable pitching staff, and the results so far have them hovering around .500.

Hot stars happen all the time, and while one week should be readily dismissed as a small sample not worthy of any kind of real scrutiny, a month merits looking into. Where did the player come from? Has anything changed? Is this sustainable? In Naquin’s case, the answers are a bit murky.

Naquin’s background is unique. The 2012 draft was weak in terms of college position players, but Naquin was nonetheless the second one selected at 15th overall. And while there was much debate over his ability to stay in center field, as well as his ultimate power ceiling, scouts were universal in their praise for the Texas A&M product’s hit tool after he led the Big 12 conference in batting average during each of his final two years as an Aggie.

His minor league career was filled with good-but-not-great seasons as he moved up the ladder (probably more slowly than Cleveland anticipated), but he got the call in 2016 and showed unexpected power on his way to 2.1 WAR in 116 games. It’s a figure he’s yet to match, as the following years were defined by injuries and inconsistent performance that saw him waver between fourth outfielder and Quad-A status. Out of time, and out of patience, Naquin was suddenly a six-year free agent looking for work this winter. The Reds offered him the best deal in terms of the combination of money and opportunity, and he’s certainly taken advantage of it.

When looking at 29 games of performance, the first question to ask is has the player been lucky? In Naquin’s case, the answer is yes, but not in the ways one might expect. His .279 BABIP is actually below his career rate, and his HR/FB% ranks sixth in the NL. Much of that is a function of Naquin’s extremely friendly home park; while his exit velocities are up a tick, they’ve merely returned to the levels they were at when he was last good (read: 2016 and ’19). In addition, there are Naquin’s opponents, or more specifically, the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have been on the wrong end of half of his eight home runs. In five games against the black and gold, Naquin is slugging 1.314; in 24 games against other teams, he’s down to .446. He’s hitting bad pitching, which is something all good hitters do. And he’s taking advantage of his ballpark, which is also something all good hitters do. But nothing says he’s been overly fortunate in a way that makes his performance misleading.

Things get a bit more interesting when you look at his approach. During his rookie campaign breakout, Naquin was far from a walking machine, but he drew free passes at an acceptable rate of just under 10%. From 2017-20, that rate dropped to an unacceptable 4.1%. This year, he’s close to a double digit percentage again, but the change in approach is not merely one of taking more pitches, it’s one of better swing decisions, and there’s a subtle difference in the two. Yes, he’s chasing a bit less and swinging in the zone a bit more, but what we are seeing is more swings early and fewer swings late.

First, let’s look at his first-pitch swing percentage:

That’s early aggression, which is a good strategy in today’s baseball. With so much power stuff (and the associated loss in command because of it) and great hitter patience, first-pitch strike stealing is becoming a more frequent approach. There are plenty of auto-takers in baseball and pitchers will frequently just groove a first pitch fastball in order to get ahead in the count and widen their future options in terms of usage and location. But as stated before, Naquin is not swinging more overall. The decline in his walks was largely the result of something evaluators refer to as “two-strike panic”: once a hitter is one strike away from ending his at-bat, his zone expands and he’s prone to swinging at bad pitches. This year, even with two strikes, Naquin is maintaining his zone.

It’s soft science and a bit of amateur psychology to be sure, but this combination just makes you feel like Naquin is more comfortable in the box. He’s relaxed and confident regardless of the count, and that combination frequently leads to better production.

In addition to the approach changes, Naquin has made some subtle alterations to his actual swing mechanics. The data says he’s pulling the ball more and hitting more balls in the air, and it seems that he has made some slight physical adjustments. Let’s look at a home run from 2018 and one from Monday night. First, look at the set-up:

Notice the differences. Two years ago, Naquin is a bit hunched, but notice how his upper half is coiled (you can read the number and name on the back of his jersey), while his lower half is slightly open. In terms of the two halves, he’s disconnected before his swing has even started, which limits the ability to make in-pitch adjustments in terms of location for some players. This year with the Reds, it’s a different story. He’s relaxed, set up straight away and his upper and lower halves are well aligned. The only knock here is that I’d like to see the bat itself back in the 2018 position; as it’s already in the swing plane, he doesn’t need an additional move to get it there. Now let’s see what happens at swing initiation, as defined by what the body looks like at front foot strike.

Again, the differences are clear to see. With Cleveland, Naquin was what scouts refer to as an open-to-closed hitter, as he lands in a closed position after the slightly open set-up. This is going to lead to more center/oppo contact, while this year he retains his straight away stance after foot strike, thus simplifying the entire operation and allowing him to turn on more balls.

The thing that bothers me the most about Naquin’s surge is how much pitchers are playing into his game, and how that might change going forward as the advance scouts start to do their work. Like most hitters, Naquin has real trouble with breaking stuff, and he’s suddenly seeing fewer breaking pitches for reasons that are difficult to figure out. In a world where pitchers deviate from the heater more than ever, Naquin has been seeing more than 70% fastballs in 2021. That’s almost certain to drop from here on out and he’ll need to continue to work the count in a way that lessens the chance of seeing such pitches. In addition, his new tendency to go into first-pitch ambush mode should be identified quickly, inspiring teams to get a bit more creative with him early in counts.

Naquin’s breakout is a combination of some good fortune created by his home park and some weak opponents, but there are also some real changes in terms of his approach at the plate, as well as his approach to the swing itself that point to real improvement. It feels more than a bit aggressive to say he’ll finish the year as a top 10 offensive performer in the National League, but finishing the year as an above-average producer certainly feels well within the range of most likely possibilities.