What Does $75 Million Buy In 2011?
By acquiring the $86 million that Vernon Wells has left on his contract while shipping out Juan Rivera ($5.25 million) and Mike Napoli (~$5.8 million or so), the Angels essentially agreed to add $75 million to their books over the next four years. Just for fun, let’s take a look at what they could have bought with $75 million this winter.
Power Hitters.
Adam Dunn ($56 million) and John Buck ($18 million) would have given them a lefty thumper to use as an OF/DH type and allowed them to replace Napoli with another catcher who could hit the ball over the wall. Sure, they would have had to play Bobby Abreu in the field for one more year, but the difference between Dunn’s bat and Wells’ bat would have compensated for the difference, and they wouldn’t have had to start Jeff Mathis at catcher.
Detroit’s off-season
The Tigers acquired Victor Martinez ($50 million), Joaquin Benoit ($16.5 million) and Brad Penny ($3 million) for $5 million less than the Jays just paid to “upgrade” to Vernon Wells.
An entirely new starting rotation
Jorge de la Rosa ($21.5 million), Jake Westbrook ($16.5 million), Carl Pavano ($16.5 million), Hiroki Kuroda ($12 million), and Javier Vazquez ($7 million) signed for a grand total of $73.5 million this winter. This isn’t quite as fair, since it’s almost all 2011 money rather than being spread out over the next four years, but still, the total dollar figure for Vernon Wells is about the same as buying five of the best free agent starting pitchers available this winter.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I find it funny that the Angels could have signed 10 Mannys or 4 Damons for the salary Wells is given next year. Assuming Manny puts up 1.5 WAR, Wells better be worth 15 WAR this year.
Oh, I don’t know. Think how much fun they would have playing Chutes and Ladders…
and no one has mentioned that Vernon is leaving the hitters friendly rogers centre to a field he has hit terrible on…22 of the 31 HR’s he hit last year came at the Rogers centre
And the little .5 Manny would like draw plenty of walks.
11.5 Mannys? Isn’t that 11 Mannys and a Ronnie Belliard?
What a depressing off-season for Angels fans…
Than the *Angels* just paid, you mean
Signed, ecstatic Jays fan
This trade is… Well… Hilarious?
They traded a decent amount of value, for a contract with NEGATIVE value. That blows my mind.
Gary Matthews Jr. says hello!
I just can’t stop laughing…this has made my weekend.
Unbelievable. AA working wonders here lol
Most lopsided trade since 1994 strike? I think so
‘Tek and Lowe disagree with you. But it’s close.
This trade doesn’t make sense. I’m sure Jays are sending a significant amount of money to compensate the Angels for this deal that hasn’t been disclosed yet.
Or else, the trade doesn’t make sense.
nope …hehe, nothing..haha..omg cant stop laughing, no seriously, nothing..hehe
We’re assuming that the Angels can’t just absorb this contract and still spend money. Leaving out the financial impact the team is probably better with Wells in RF and Abreu at DH than with Abreu in RF and Napoli at DH. The fact that they made this trade – taking on what everyone in baseball talked about as the worst contract in baseball – makes me think that the $20m+ Wells makes a year isn’t going to impact their payroll in any significant way.
Well, the Angels is still a business. Why on Earth would they take something that clearly is a liability for their team and give assets away?
That’s like a someone taking on someone else’s debts and giving them a free car in return…
So because they CAN afford it they should? Then why not sign the more talented Beltre for $6 Million more over one more year? Or why not sign Crawford for a lower AAS? It is an absolute terrible deal, no matter how you spin it.
Don’t know if I’d call Beltre talented– the guy seems to have major drop offs statistically-speaking after signing MAJOR contracts. I’d have preferred the Rangers get Pavano instead of Beltre. An offensive-minded Rangers club isn’t exactly a winning Rangers club, historically-speaking. That said, the deal stinks.
you’re uh, you’re kind of an idiot, arent you?
@cubsfan
Not a winning ballclub? Did you sleep through last season?
You’re right – this proves that the Angels will not let a thing like money get in the way of signing players they are interested in. There’s no way they’ll be outbid for the likes of Carl Crawford or Adrian Beltre.
I don’t get it either, I’m just throwing out reasons why they did it. Maybe the length of the Beltre and Crawford contracts are what scared them, not the money?
You’d rather go four years on a shitty player than 6-7 years on awesome ones?
I don’t see all the love for Crawford’s contract and people are fools if they don’t see that Beltre gives less effort and performance after FA years. I don’t care how many negative votes I get for this response. And Kevin S….Wells isn’t a shit player…his contract is crap. Beltre is WAY OVERRATED.
Wells the person will be missed in Toronto. He stood in stark contrast to morons like Rios and Hillenbrand.
Wells the contract on the other hand…
Yeah, one of the best parts about him being gone is that now I can remember Wells as the nice, hard-working guy who ranked as one of the best Jays outfielders ever instead of just thinking of him as the insane contract around our necks.
Congratulations to Alex Anthoppulos, who just won the 2011 MLB Executive of the Year award.
more like the nobel peace prize.
that wasnt funny at all.
Even Dayton Moore is having a good laugh over this one.
In other words:
http://i.imgur.com/SI7Fb.png
Hey guys, let’s play “pillage the Angels”
Post your idea of a trade the Angels would totally do, given what happened today.
Mine would be Jered Weaver for Josh Beckett.
Mike Trout for Ryan Howard. Kendry was injured for much of last year after all.
Those are both great trades compared to this one.
You’re right, how about the Angels throw in Peter Bourjos in the Weaver – Beckett deal?
Ervin Santana for Barry Zito. Angels prove they didn’t like Wells, just the fact that he was signed for a 7/126 contract. Follow it up by trading Mike Trout for Jayson Werth.
I don’t know if the Angels would take Weaver for Beckett, considering the Yankees would probably swoop in with Eduardo Nunez. Close call.
Kendry Morales for Everth Cabrera!
“Most lopsided trade since 1994 strike? I think so”
I would say this took the crown from the Arizona / Red Sox deal for Schilling.
I just realized something…are the Jays now Pujols players?
Well, Pujols is obviously target #1. But they’ll make a power play on Fielder for sure if that pipe dream doesn’t happen.
And FWIW, I think the Canadian dollar is stronger than the US dollar is right now.
Oh geez, imagine the home run totals if Pujols’ instructions were “Swing for the fences!”
@Joe R
One US dollar is about 99.3 cents Canadian Dollar. So a $250 million contract in Canadian dollars is an extra $1.75 million in US dollars.
Sam-
Does that mean the Angels actually owe Wells MORE than 86 million? Because that would be the cherry on top.
@Joe R & Sam – Compared to past history, when the Canadian Dollar was about as valuable as Monopoly money, yes, the Canadian Dollar has greatly improved over the USD.
@Dave – No, the $ symbol on its own within US media means USD. There would have been a specification for Canadian Dollars when the contract came out if it hadn’t already been converted prior to hitting the media.
Vernon Wells is not entirely useless. Everyone loves to make fun of the terrible contract (deservedly so), but it’s not like the guy isn’t capable of putting up 3+ WAR seasons on a regular basis when he’s not hurt. Money aside, he certainly makes the Angels better.
“but it’s not like the guy isn’t capable of putting up 3+ WAR seasons on a regular basis”
Which explains why he’s gotten halfway there only once in the last four years…
As has been said elsewhere, Wells is a good player with a terrible contract. He’s absolutely worth the money if you’re paying him $5M a season, probably even more than that. But for $18M a season, he better be a perennial All-Star. Barry Zito is in much the same boat.
$18M? Try $23M.
If only there were a mathematically inclined baseball website where someone might be able to apply some basic time-value of money skills to discover the true “value” of Wells’s contract in 2011 dollars.
5% discount: $69 million
10% discount: $64 million
I’m not saying that changes the point of the article, but it would allow a more accurate and worthwhile version of it to be written.
I’m not sure what your point is. Most of the hypothetical ways Dave suggested the Angels could have spent their money are for players whose contracts also extend out multiple years, where the time value of the money is roughly equivalent, and in the SP example, he specifically noted that most of that money was 2011 money, so it wasn’t quite a perfect comparison. In other words, your complaints were already implicitly addressed in the article.
You’re right that I was dumb for not suggesting the time-value analysis be applied to the other contracts as well.
You’re wrong that the article wouldn’t have been more worthwhile with an analysis on those grounds, rather than implicitly acknowledging this was a rather imprecise method for looking at contracts. This is, at some level, a math+baseball=yay! site, so why wouldn’t you want them to apply some pretty darn basic math in order to better understand the issue at hand? Especially when they’re much less likely than an idiot like me to forget to apply it to all the contracts in play.
Byron is right here, actually. PV’ing all of the contracts used would provide a better perspective than simply stating that “this isn’t quite fair,” as is done in the article. It’s not difficult math, and Google can yield some reasonable estimates for inflation rates. Time value of money for two-year deals like Pavano’s and four-year deals like Wells’ are dramatically different. They shouldn’t be compared as apples-to-apples. It’s a fun exercise nonetheless, but simply a slightly lazy one.
And yes, Alex Anthopoulos for GM of the decade.
Seriously, it’s done, it’s over. He took one of the biggest dud contracts in MLB, and actually improved his team in the process.
Now they can slide Davis to CF, put Rivera in LF, stuff Napoli at 1B. This team is objectively better now than before the trade, and that doesn’t even factor in the extra $86 million they can play with.
Forgot about Snyder, read the CBS depth chart that buried him at DH, my mistake.
So
C: JPA
1B: Napoli
2B: Hill
3B: Bautista
SS: Escobar
LF: Snyder
CF: Davis
RF: Rivera
DH: Lind (eh)
Sounds like something I’d do. And it sounds like an improvement to the before:
C: JPA
1B: Lind
2B: Hill
3B: McDonald
SS: Escobar
LF: Davis
CF: Wells
RF: Bautista
DH: Snyder
looking at probably:
1) CF Davis
2) SS Escobar
3) RF Bautista
4) 1B Napoli
5) DH Lind
6) 3B Encarnacion
7) LF Snider
8) 2B Hill
9) C Arencibia
PH: X
OF: Rivera
IF: McDonald
C Molina
though Rivera might give Encarnacion some competition for that starting spot (with Bautista shifting between 3B and RF depending on who’s winning that competition).
as long as they are GOING to play with it
The Blue Jays send 5mil with Wells, which makes his contract essentially 81mil over the next 4 years, still a massive win the for the Jays.
For this trade to make sense for the Angels, there would need to be a “0” after that “5”. I wish I were joking. I actually feel sorry for the Angels fan base right now.
ya as about as sorry i feel for seattles morrow for league trade 🙂
You do realize that that would make the present value of Wells’ contract somewhere around $14-19MM total, right? Yes, you actually were joking.
@Dan: I like how you took net present value of the contract, but refuse to take net present value of the $50M. Stay classy. Let’s show the math:
Let’s call wells a 3-win player in 2011. I think it’s a bit generous, but it’s a reasonable value. At 0.5 win aging curve, that would give him an estimated 3+2.5+2+1.5 = 9 wins over the length of the contract. At the present going rate of about $5/win, that’s 4-years, $45 million.
So, only a $40M shortfall not $50 million…except the Angels sent an asset to the Blue Jays in Mike Napoli. He’s was a Super-2, so he’s arbitration eligible this year and next. He’s going to make about $6M this year, so will probably make about $8M next. He’s about a 2.5 to 3-win player the last 3 years running, so let’s say he’s worth 5 wins in 2011 and 2012. $25M in market value, $14M in salary…about another $10M in surplus value for Toronto.
Angels are stuck paying Wells about $40M more than he’s worth, Blue Jays get to pay Napoli about $10M less than he’s worth. That makes this trade about $50M to the negative for the Angels. So, no. No, I was not joking about the $50M whiff by Reagans.
Wells .346wOBA careeer
Crawford: .347wOBA career
Neither can field CF, and Wells is likely a healthy plus fielder in a corner spot just like Crawford is (and the Angels are likely putting him in a corner spot).
Yet Crawford’s $142m signing gets nothing but praise.
Crawford’s been >4 WAR in 5 of his last 7 seasons. Wells in 1.
Crawford also has a +9.2 UZR/150 in CF (albeit in a small sample), and +15 in LF. That’s at least 1 WAR better than Wells, and at this stage of their career it’s likely closer to 2.
Also, Crawford is 3 years younger.
Crawford has earned all of his war because of huge defensive ratings at a one of the least important defensive positions on the field. He can’t field CF, or else he would have.
We’ll see how their WAR compares with Wells likely now moving to a corner outfield spot, where his defensive skills should put him amongst the best defensive corner outfielders in the game, like Crawford is.
Except Wells is expected to play CF for the Angels…
Wells is not a plus outfielder, anywhere. His range is gone. I’d figure him a -5 UZR in LF.
“Except Wells is expected to play CF for the Angels…”
I’d bet good money against that. The Angels will likely move him to LF, keep Hunter in CF, and use Peter Bourjos in CF.
They might as well use this alignment so as to keep CF free for when Mike Trout is ready, and Bourjos is fine as a defensive CF for 2 years(better than Hunter or Wells).
And by “Hunter in CF”, I obviously meant Hunter in RF.
Whoops, sorry ’bout that. 😉
You forgot the tag
I agree, Crawford got signed for way too much money and way too long by sabremetric genius Epstein. It’s a move that reeks of “keep away” Crawford from our competitors. It’s just because their the Red Sox. That said, this move to get Wells is plain awful.
that’s pretty bad figurin’
On what grounds? Give an analogous example of a bad CF who transformed into an elite option in the corner.
Are you kidding? LF is a position that has turned Alfonso Soriano, Matt Holliday, and David Dejsus into elite options in the corner.
JD Drew and Jayson Werth are examples of elite RFers who couldn’t handle CF. Hell, Ichiro is an example of the same.
Ichiro has a +12.4 UZR in 2,303 innings in CF. My ass Ichiro can’t play CF.
Alfonso Soriano was a converted CF? That’s news to me.
Holliday has never played an inning in CF. DeJesus maybe, but he wasn’t a bad CF, he was an average CF. His last season before becoming a corner OF, he had a -0.2 UZR, and a combined positive UZR before that. A far cry to what Wells is.
JD Drew has an average UZR mark, and above average TZ mark in CF for his career, Werth is better than that.
The most important factor is NONE of these men had anything close to as bad a season as Wells had in CF for the last 3 seasons. He’s sporting a robust -14.9 UZR/150 in the last three. Even if you think the corner is 15 defensive runs easier than center, Wells is average.
And these non-analogous players don’t prove a thing.
So your theory is that at a position where Alfonso Soriano, Matt Holliday, and David Dejesus have been amongst the top-5 fielders over the past 3 seasons, that Vernon Wells would have trouble being far better than that? just because you can disqualify them in your head because they would never, ever even be tried in CF because they’re so bad defensively? and I won’t even mention the fact that the two horrible years Wells had defensively in ’08/’09 were largely due to trying playing through major hamstring problems. well, I might have just mentioned it.
But no need to argue about it, or disqualify this or that example based on criteria you make up.
We’ll all be able to see the numbers Wells puts up in a corner OF spot soon enough.
The Crawford-Wells comparison going forward will be interesting to watch. Two very bad contracts, one which is rightly panned, the other which is mysteriously praised.
You didn’t provide evidence. You simply dismissed their fielding aptitude w/out any objectivity. I have no clue what kind of CF Holliday or Soriano would make. The numbers say not good, not bad. And Crawford is miles ahead of both of them.
Do you grasp what an “analogous example” is? DeJesus / Soriano / Holliday (one of which was moved to LF entering his prime, two have little to no time in CF) are not. Johnny Damon and Torii Hunter are far more analogous, and neither one is more than slightly above average in the corner. And I’d still take both over Wells.
You look up the evidence for the names I listed yourself. You’ll see the truth if you bother. Or you can just dismiss the group of elite defnsive LFers that were never anywhere near good enough defensively to ever even be considered to field an inning in CF based on criteria you made up to make yourself feel better.
And I’ll even let you grandstand here to win the internet battle to boot, because I don’t really feel like working out accurate and comprehensive 3yr UZR splits for a list of players right now.
Whichever way you choose, winning this argument doesn’t really matter, because we’ll see what happens on the field soon enough.
“You look up the evidence for the names I listed yourself.”
That’s not how it works. You’re the one making the ridiculous-on-its-face argument, so the burden of proof is on you.
I’m not sure why your post got negative votes.
I was stunned to learn that Alfonso Soriano had really good UZR numbers. I watch the Cubs and the guy is clown on skates in LF. Holliday is better than the playoff highlight we all remember, but not a “plus” LF (although he certainly looks it after seeing Chris Duncan for 1.5 years). DeJesus is pretty good everywhere.
The question I have is that by some metrics, Crawford is literally “double” all other LFs. There was a stat at Tango’s blog where Crawford had gotten to 100+ more balls than other LF. I think “How”. I figured it was due to [1] he’s fast, [2] Upton in CF can cover the alleys (especially for RHB), [3] Crawford’s left-handed, meaning he can cover the line. So, they may actually tell Crawford “no doubles” (guard the line) and let BJ patrol left-center.
I find it literally amazing that more people are not critical of Crawford not playing CF. I don’t know CC, but that bothers me because it’s likely not what’s best for the team. When your fastest and most skilled outfielder won’t play the most demanding position, that’s concerning.
The problem with Wells is that at 23M/y he is pretty much known as the butt of a joke and his play is ignored. He will likely never earn that contract yearly (duh), but he still could put up 4 WAR seasons. Actually, he was 4 WAR in ’10 … maybe LAA is thinking that he is returning to 4 WAR territory and that’s okay for what they’re paying.
I would prefer bringing up one or both of the young OF phenoms. Scoscia likes small ball. These two seem to be made for that. Advancing on the bases, playing defense, etc.
@BIP
I feel like it’s like the birthers screaming about how Obama wasn’t born here, and then placing the burden of proof on those who disagree, despite the fact that THEY are the ones making a crazy statement.
And I’m a Right-leaning libertarian saying that.
I wonder whats to stop AA from shipping Napoli to another team. Boston had expressed interest in him before and Toronto really has no need for him. Just speculating, but I wouldn’t be suprised after this deal.
The Jays need him to platoon at 1st with Lind ! Against LHP as last year Lind had a slash line of .117/.159/.182 and Napoli hit .305/.399/.567
Also if JPA doesn’t pan out then they have a back-up.
Obviously the Jays would have unloaded wells for a bag of balls but I wonder if they were fearing this
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?playerid2=1000808&playerid3=1326&playerid4=&playerid5=
Boston wanted Napoli to play 1B, so he’s no longer necessary.
It is beyond difficult to be an Angel fan today.
Not only is Vernon Wells (.280/.329/.475) essentially the same exact player as Juan Rivera (.280/.328/.461) for $80 million more, but trading Napoli as well gives the worst regular player in the majors, Jeff Mathis, even more at-bats.
I can’t think of any other way to describe this trade then unfathomable.
Why are people so f***ing stupid put in charge of multi-million dollar companies? I just don’t get it.
My hat’s off to Anthopoulos, the best confidence man in the game.
Headline on Halos Heaven: “Angels Release Mike Napoli, Sign Juan Rivera To Four-Year, $86 Million Extension”
by line on Halos Heaven: “Angles had sh!tty off season — but they willl still win 20 more games than the Mariners will in 2011.”
That’s pretty damn good.
The thing that’s interesting to me is that, right now, Mike Trout is probably just as productive as Juan Rivera.
Well this kinda throws a fork into that trade value series, eh?
Wells won’t play CF, Bourjos will. Wells will be in LF.
This frees the Angels up to trade Mike Trout for
whoops, I hit submit too quickly.
This frees the Angels up to trade Mike Trout for Alfonso Soriano or Barry Zito.
Please don’t joke, Tony Reagins might hear you.
So despondent right now. My team is run by absolute idiots.
Also could’ve bought 122751 shares of Google.
vr, Xei
Headline of Halos Heaven:
“Angels release Mike Napoli, sign Juan Rivera to four-year, $86 million extension”
If that doesn’t say it all…
I’m no saber wiz, but here’s some basic math on this contract from the Jays’s point of view.
08 salary: $500,000 – – – – – War: 1.5 – – – – – – Value in $: $6,600,000
09 salary: $1,500,000 – – – – War: 0 – – – – – – – Value in $: $0
10 salary: $12,500,000 – – – war: 4.5 – – – – – – Value in $: $14,900,00
Total:
War: 6
Value of War: $21,500,000
Value of $ spent: $14,500,000
As the book closes on the Wells contract from a Blue Jays point of view, they are up $7,000,000 … for what people said was the worst contract in baseball.
Not bad!
Still the worst contract, but now someone else is paying it.
I see what you’re saying, but it looks like, with the signing bonus, they still paid him 43 million for those three years. So, still terrible. Add in extra costs (5 million sent extra, Juan Rivera’s contract), and it’s still a big overpay.
Even though the Jays took on Rivera’s contract, you can’t add his salary to these calculations unless you’re prepared to add his 2011 WAR to them, too.
Remarkably inept negotiations by the Angels front office.
When the Cubs traded Milton Bradley to the Mariners, the M’s agreed to take on Bradley’s salary obligations ($9 million for 2010, $12 million for 2011) AND they agreed to pay the Cubs $3.5 million in 2010 and $5.5 million in 2011 to help cover some of Silva’s salary.
It makes NO SENSE that the Angels couldn’t negotiate a similar arrangement where the Jays would pay the Angels $4 million a year in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. Effectively this would make the Wells contract a 4-year deal for $66 million. Not great but better than the $86 million albatross.
and Milton sucked — completely broke down is owed another 10mm, etc. Jack Z is a genius!
IMO, not fair.
Bradley has always been a douche, or a jag, or whatever … but he’s very often been really productive at doing two things that teams want him to do, [1] hit, [2] walk.
He’s done those two so well that teams are willing to risk his personality.
I have no idea what’s going on with him now. 2009 was all low BABIP. 2010 was above average wOBA, so he’s still potntially decent.
This is a very nice late xmas present for Jays fans and likely a prelude to some moves next year, I find it unreal that they found someone to take on Well’s entire contract right when it started to get expensive. AA should have been the Jays GM years ago, this trade alone might make him executive of the year. Angel’s fans are getting one heck of a team guy, just too bad he gets paid an average of $21.5 million to be a good guy.
The odds of Reagins and Scioscia both being employed by the Angels at the end of next season just decreased by about 83%. Start jostling for position, fellas, a scapegoat will be needed.
Honestly what are the Angels doing anymore? They change philosophy because after 6 consecutive (7 maybe?) division titles they obviously needed to shake things up. They fire scouting director Eddie Bane who was responsible for getting the #1 or 2 prospect in all of baseball. They’ve done nothing in free agency. This team is on the way down.
Chaching!! Have fun makin it rain AA
This is probably too optimistic (I’m a Jays fan) but I can’t help but feel like the Jays replaced Vernon’s bat with Rivera’s (assuming Wells maintains status quo and Rivera bounces back in a more HR-friendly environment). Obviously losing your CF isn’t ideal, but Vernon wasn’t exactly a stud out there anymore. If Rivera can play passable defense when he’s forced to this is a zero sum game. For 3WAR less money per season.
AND THE JAYS ADD NAPOLI!!!
Angels = TARP
Jays = AIG
There is a reason Reagins, Scoscia, etc. are in charge and not YOU (referring to all those reading/alive).
Jesus its so easy to cry and moan about anything and everything. Everybody get over yourselves, you’re not a GM or in the FO of a sports franchise for a reason.
We’re not crying or moaning, we’re laughing.
Also, no more film critics! No more commentary about anything ever in fact! Take away the right to vote–there’s a reason they’re in office, and you’re not! Let’s just have the politicians decide who would make the best politicians. Criticizing anything ever isn’t the American way. Damn Canadians!
The people most above scrutiny here are the bankers and investors of the past 15 years. I mean, there’s a reason those guys have their jobs and not you. Right?
…right?
Common sense, 10
Snoth, -5
Interestingly, there is no right to vote granted in the Constitution.
i bet you love umpires too
At this rate, reagins won’t be in a front office much longer either.
The point no one is making is that it doesn’t matter how Wells plays from this point on because the Angels didn’t trade at all at what people think he’s worth now. (Unless my impression of the Jays’ FO is way, way off)
Argue all you want that Wells is going to average 4.5 WAR over the next 4 years. I don’t agree with you, and I don’t think it’s likely, but even if it happens, we can feel pretty confident that the Blue Jays and AA didn’t think it was likely.
If Wells was their guy (and I think that’s insane, but hey, disagree if you like), you have to know his value RIGHT NOW. And you have to bargain down to somewhat close to that. You can’t say that sending away two not so great players is enough here. You have to get back some prospects, some money, or both. No one was willing to take on this contract without getting like 40 million back. Even if the Angels think he’s worth the $86 million, they have to be aware of his market value now and push for something closer to that. This just doesn’t cut it in anyway possible.
This was a straight up Salary dump that netted surprising good return. Lose 86 million in salary over the next 4 years of someone who put up 7 WAR over the last 4 years, who has become a poor defender. [b]Money that can be spent on the future rather then tied up in Wells.[/b] While getting back a need position for the Jays (1B in Napoli who has put up 9.7 WAR over the last 4 seasons) who is going to be making 5-6 million a season until 2013. While Rivera will be a 4th outfielder, who will be a FA after this season and will come off the books. This trade was about money and the future.
Blue Jays got back probably better Value then Wells, but it wasn’t in prospect form. The players alone aren’t really less valuable then Wells even. Wells will NOT do well offensively with the Angels I don’t believe. he had a hot start with Cito’s strategy. AA did as well as you could expect with this trade.
Not sure how you misread this, but I was saying that the Angels needed to get more out of the trade, not the Jays. The Jays did fantastic, unbelievable. This is the steal of the century.
My point was, to all those people who say wait and see on the trade or that Wells is a decent player and might not be that terrible, that that doesn’t matter. We KNOW, not think, not expect, but KNOW that Wells was worth less on the trade market than what the Angels gave up to get him. They were swindled regardless if he puts up 20 WAR (extremely unlikely) or 5 WAR over the length of his contract.
The Angels almost certainly could have asked for cash, prospects or both and still gotten Wells if they’re convinced that he’s their guy. They did neither. There is no one in the Angels org or Angels fan who should be OK with this trade even if they think Wells is Tulo, Longo, or Pujols in disguise (he’s not). B/c they could have done way better. AA and the Jays would have given something better than nothing to get a Wells deal done. The whole world knew that, and still the Angels’ FO didn’t even bother to ask. It’s a travesty on their part.
Ooops, meant to comment on the part below, and got the two posts confused and jumbled I shouldn’t post when up 48 straight hours.
I have been in shock about this trade since it happened. However it makes sense to me if; you accept the crazy Mike Soscia logic that the Angel’s are better off with Jeff Mathis and his anemic bat at catcher rather than Mike Napoli and that Peter Bourjos is going to play most days in center. This mean’s they weren’t going to use Napoli because Mathis is catching, Morales is playing 1B and Abreu is DH. Then this trade becomes an upgrade of Wells over Rivera, and a team that had a poor defensive outfield a year ago now has one of the best. It still obviously doesn’t make sense in terms of maximizing value. But if Napoli wasn’t going to play, then this move does make the team better. Even if it is at an extremely high cost.
“a team that had a poor defensive outfield a year ago now has one of the best”
What? Wells has been a below average CF for the last 3 years now…and given his age his UZR wont be improving anytime soon.
I think Bourjos will start in center, where he played the last 50 games of the season. Wells will move to left, where I would guess his UZR will be quite good.
“quite good” is probably a stretch, but he should manage averageish
OK, I’m going to defend the Angels in this trade. Ok, I’m going to defend the Angles in this trade. Ok, I’m getting the Angle of the Angel. Duh, I’m sunk, I’m getting outta here. Blue Jays can’t go wrong, no matter how you look at it.
There has to be a lot more than 5 mil going to the angels that we did not hear of yet… I would believe about 26 mil total to equal four year 60 mil which to be honest IS STILL TOO MUCH!!! That happened with Alex rios too where Chicago assumed the remaining contract but gave no players… I really can’t believe this yet, our largest contract was 5 yr 70 mil for VLad Guerrero plus an option yr which he produced very well for the money, we go from being soo conservative in spending to soo compulsive in one transaction, does not make sense. I never thought id say this but where is bill stoneman??
The twenty-eight other GMs in the league are going to wake up tomorrow morning, sip a cup of coffee, and decide whether to veto the deal or just talk shit about Reagins on the league message board.
As a Jays fan, I *do* actually worry just a tad that AA may spook some other [cognizant] owners, who are afraid of being de-pantsed so convincingly like he did to the Halos here. We all have those guys in our fantasy leagues – the owner you just can’t/won’t trade with because every offer he sends is so, so very lopsided.
AA is that guy.
Which I’m LOVING right now.
The worst part of these lopsided deals is: if on the off-chance that Wells actually does well and the Angels go deep in the playoffs….most of the TV announcers would spend days praising Reagins and the rest of the FO.
WELLS NEVER REALLY LIKED CANADA…TOO FAR FROM HIS HOME…TORII HUNTER IS HIS BEST FRIEND…LOOK FOR A BIG REBOUND IN 2011…HATERS WILL EAT THEIR WORDS
Breathe…
ya ok…you keep telling yourself that
Yes, Wells might be a very good player in 2011. And with the 11 million they saved this year on players they didn’t seem to want (although I’ll never know how they rationalize Jeff Mathis being better than Napoli) he might even be worth the 12 million bump in payroll. But for three years after that he’s going to be in his mid 30’s where he will most definitely not be worth 21 million per year. So it might not look like a horrible trade in 2011. But in 2012 when the Halos have no cap flexibility and the Jays make a bid for a premiere bat with all the money they saved, it will look very silly indeed.
you can tell he’s shouting because he used caps
We got this guy ARod.. you may have heard of him?
I hear you were looking for a 3rd basemen and lucky for you we got this guy locked up for YEARS! I’m basically looking for some prospect to appease the fans and I’d willingly let you have him!
I hear you got this guy named Salmon? Or was it Trout? The guy has got a decent rep and I think that might get the fans off my back for trading an iconic player?
Whadya say? I’ll even throw in 10 mil? Fuhgeddaboutit!
No deal. If we are going to make this trade you must take Dan Haren off of our hands. And we hear you have a very good LHP in AAA named Kei Igawa, we want him too.
who’s brian cashmen..?
Mike Trout for Yuniesky?
its been rumored that Jays are throwing in just $5 million total. i find it hard to believe that Napoli and Rivera combined are only worth that much. couldnt the Angels have just taken on the whole Wells contract, then traded Napoli and Rivera to the highest bidders? at least then they could have gotten prospects out of it.
Ray – James; the final details of this trade have been released; the Jays are sending no money with Wells, which is a shocker. Ingy you have nothing to base that comment on first and foremost, if he hated Canada so much he wouldn’t have signed the contract in the first place and he would have allowed for a trade to more than just 2 teams. Also his best friend is Michael Young in Texas; they were roommates throughout the minors in the Jays system.
I just woke and its 730 am in anaheim hills ca and thought I had a really bad dream, until I watched ESPN, OMG!!! It’s officially depressingly true…. Unbelievable!!! The biggest contract angels ever took on and we got plain and dry HUSTLED, LAUGHED AT, and now were DISRESPECTED…This is not like us….NO Matter how you put it, what excuse you make, we paid for a rolls royce price and maintenance and got a Cadillac… we got hustled by the JAYS and AA!!!
cadillac? geo, maybe…
What is all the fuss? This will be fine for the Angels. Wells is a great guy and he is a gamer/grinder/baller. You can’t put a price tag on laying out for balls you should have been able to catch standing up with your eyes closed.
Actually you can. And if you’re the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim that would be the number 86. Followed closely by 6 zeros of course.
You might not be able to put an exact dollar value on being a gamer/grinder/baller but I’ll bet if you had to come up with a number off the top of your head it wouldn’t be 86 million over 4 years. Fact is that since the Jays are not sending a boat load of money with him, and I mean 30-40 million this is a horrible trade for the Angels from a financial standpoint, it also is a little perplexing considering that the Angels wouldn’t lay out the money on better free agents. Not to mention don’t the Angels have some guys currently on their roster that are going to start getting real expensive very soon? From the Jays stand point, they were already in a very good financial position to throw some coin around and now they are in an even better position, starting over with what looks like a decent MLB club and a strong far system, future looks bright.
He was obviously saying that tongue-in-cheek, about Wells being a hustler/grinder guy; the last part of the comment is poking fun at Wells’ declining range.
(Besides he can’t be a gritty gutty grinder type – that’s reserved for undersized white guys.)
Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano for Weaver, Kendrick, Trout, Chatwood, Richards, and Conger.
So, fredsbank, how EXACTLY AM I AN IDIOT?
“Don’t know if I’d call Beltre talented– the guy seems to have major drop offs statistically-speaking after signing MAJOR contracts”
beltre is clearly very talented, have you never watched him field? he’s one of the few players where the numbers and scout reports all match that he’s a very good defender.
regarding his offensive production, he was in safeco, i dont know if you’re aware, but that’s like the worst place to hit in the universe that doesnt include PETCO, and his splits hitting away during his seattle years suggest that certainly had a lot to do with it. he had several decent seasons with the dodgers before the ridiculous one, and it’s not exactly a hitter’s paradise in chavez ravine either. is he a true-talent 10 win player like he was in 04? of course not, but he’s still very talented with a glove and anywhere from average to good with his
you seem to think that just because his best two seasons came in free-agent years he somehow lacks the talent to perform in other years? it’s one thing to suggest that maybe he lacks the work ethic or drive to succeed with nothing at stake, but it’s absolutely wrong to suggest he’s not a talented baseball player
average to good with his bat, was how that sentence was supposed to end
But isn’t have the work ethic and drive what contributes to talent as a player? That’s exactly what I’m suggesting…..that talent is built off work ethic. Right now, everyone’s is questioning Jay Cutler’s talent here in Bears’ country because he LACKS the work ethic to develop proper mechanics to throw a football properly. Now, I realize different sports, but the concept’s the same work ethic is inherently tied to talent because of skill development. And if Beltre wants to lay down after FA years, that’s his problem. But offensively, he has. Yeah, SafeCo’s not the best park for hitters…neither is Dodger Stadium, as you indicated. What about Ichiro though and his production? I know different type of player, you’ll say. But you need to adapt to the situation. If Ichiro can HIT and win AL MVP while playing at SafeCo, then accuses can’t be made for Beltre, and your logic is flawed. And if your logic’s flawed, calling me stupid makes you look dumb. Also, if the Rangers were looking for someone that good defensively, there are cheaper options. One more point. I remember the Rangers and their offensively-based team philosophy in the early 2000s and 1990s, didn’t get them anywhere. Their SP is suspect. No matter how bad the trade was for the Angels, it’s still a 3-team race in the AL West.
As a lifelong Angels fan…the saddest part is I think the Angels have a very good shot to win the West. Wells will improve the team just slightly and on the heals of a number of very poor decisions (and in spite of them) the front office after, bouncing back and winning the west (possibly on the backs of the pitching), will quite possibly get some indirect credit for one of the most unbelievably bad trades I can ever imagine.
Wouldn’t it be nice if other GMs could veto a trade – I am sure this would never even pass the smell test.
The only plausible explanation I can imagine is that Arty Moreno forced the FO into some ridiculous trade just to appease the “fans” after missing out on Crawford and Beltre (both of whom they allegedly made very legitimate offers to).