What Sets the Mets Apart?

The last week of October is here; the clocks are about to be turned back, autumn is in full swing, and there are two teams left standing in pursuit of the World Series title. This week, let’s take a look at the defining characteristics that have delivered the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals to the brink of the game’s ultimate goals. Today, it’s the National League champion Mets.

On the last day of July, the Mets ranked 30th and last in the majors in runs scored. Just a couple of days before, shortstop Wilmer Flores was nearly traded in a deal that would have delivered outfielder Carlos Gomez to the Mets, and he stood in tears at his shortstop position as news of the trade swept through his home stadium. October glory seemed far away indeed in those seemingly long-ago days.

We all know what has happened since. The Flores-Gomez deal fell through, and the Mets’ big trade-deadline move eventually netted them Yoenis Cespedes. He ignited the offense almost immediately, and Curtis Granderson and especially Daniel Murphy joined him to catalyze a stretch run in which their bats nearly kept pace with their ever-present young arms. The Nationals imploded, and the NL East belonged to the Metropolitans.

They outlasted the Dodgers, and outclassed the previously explosive Cubs, never trailing for even a single moment in the NLCS. For all of the ups and downs this club has endured in recent months, their heart and soul has been easily identifiable all along.

The Lethal 1-2-3 Punch at the Top of the Rotation
The Mets have won two World Series titles in their history, and both were built on the backs of young, dominant starting pitchers. The 1969 Miracle Mets rode Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Gary Gentry and Nolan Ryan, who started 112 of their 162 games. Koosman was the oldest of the group at age 26. Two more youngsters, Jim McAndrew and co-closer Tug McGraw, aged 25 and 24, started half of the remaining contests. They outdid themselves in 1986, when Dwight Gooden, Ron Darling, Sid Fernandez and Rick Aguilera, all 25 and under, started 118 of the club’s 162 games. Ace Gooden was all of 21 years old.

This year’s power trio, Jacob deGrom, 27, Matt Harvey, 26, and Noah Syndergaard, 23, are, believe it or not, a little older on average than the 1969 and 1986 groups, though they possess similar levels of major league experience compared to both. They started just over half (83) of the Mets’ games this season, and along with fellow kid Steven Matz, 24, they are starting all of them in the postseason. They all have plus-plus fastballs, at least one dominant secondary offering, and command and control beyond their years.

Harvey and Syndergaard were expected to be this good. Harvey was the Mets’ first-rounder in 2010 out of North Carolina, and long before that, I saw him hit 94 mph with his fastball as a 15-year-old at a Major League Scouting Bureau workout on Long Island. He already had a tight, power curve ball in his arsenal at that point. Syndergaard was a Blue Jays sandwich pick, also in 2010, and was part of the Mets’ return in the R.A. Dickey deal. I first saw him pitch in the rookie-level Appalachian League in 2011, and he was sitting in the upper-90s with impressive downhill plane on his fastball, mixing in a power slider. deGrom was also a 2010 draftee, but with a much lesser pedigree. He went in the ninth round, and quickly needed Tommy John surgery shortly after his pro career began.

Each year I compile my own minor league starting pitcher rankings, based on performance and age relative to league and level. Harvey qualified twice, at #58 and #64 in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Syndergaard outdid him, checking in at #12, #3 and #7 in 2012, 2013, and 2014. deGrom truly was a late-blooming, out-of-nowhere emergent prospect, who never once qualified for my minor league starting pitcher prospect list, mostly due to his advanced age compared to his minor league peers, thanks to the layoff from his injury.

Let’s take a quick look at their plate appearance frequency and production by ball-in-play (BIP) type data to see how deGrom, Harvey and Syndergaard get it done:

Mets’ Big Three – PA Frequency Data

deGrom	%	REL	PCT
K	27.3%	135	89
BB	5.1%	68	13
POP	3.1%	107	65
FLY	31.6%	105	66
LD	20.9%	99	45
GB	44.4%	97	37
Harvey	%	REL	PCT
K	24.9%	123	81
BB	4.9%	66	10
POP	3.5%	122	71
FLY	32.6%	108	71
LD	17.9%	85	8
GB	46.0%	100	46
Syndergaard	%	REL	PCT
K	27.5%	136	90
BB	5.1%	68	14
POP	3.5%	122	70
FLY	30.1%	100	52
LD	19.9%	94	22
GB	46.5%	101	52

Most notably, all three pitchers posted exceptional K and BB rates. Their K rates range from Harvey’s 24.9% to Syndergaard’s 27.5%; they posted individual K rate percentile ranks of 90 (Syndergaard), 89 (deGrom) and 81 (Harvey). Similarly, their BB rates are clustered at the preferred end of the scale, in a very narrow band between 4.9% and 5.1%. They posted individual BB rate percentile ranks of 10 (Harvey), 13 (deGrom) and 14 (Syndergaard). There were only a handful of starting pitchers in the game last season residing in such an exclusive K/BB neighborhood — Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco — and the Mets possessed three such starters. This gives them significant margin for error with regard to contact management; a margin for error that these guys didn’t need.

All three pitchers posted greater-than-average pop-up rates (deGrom, 65 percentile rank, Harvey, 71, and Syndergaard, 70) and lower-than-average line drive rates (deGrom, 45 percentile rank, Harvey, 8, and Syndergaard, 22). These developments don’t appear to be flukes, either. Both deGrom’s (60 popup percentile rank, 54 liner percentile rank) and Harvey’s (73, 43) 2014 marks in these categories were better than average in as well. Missing bats, minimizing free passes and the most damaging type of contact while maximizing the weakest type certainly represents a solid recipe for pitching success.

To get a more complete feel for their contact management ability, let’s examine the three starters’ production allowed by BIP type, which hints at their BIP authority allowed:

Mets’ Big Three – Production Allowed by BIP Type

deGrom	AVG	OBP	SLG	REL PRD	ADJ PRD	ACT ERA	CALC ERA	FIP	TRU ERA
FLY	0.121		0.341	41	61
LD	0.604		0.925	84	96
GB	0.283		0.309	121	103
ALL BIP	0.294		0.437	80	85
ALL PA	0.210	0.250	0.311	61	64	2.54	2.41	2.70	2.54
Harvey	AVG	OBP	SLG	REL PRD	ADJ PRD	ACT ERA	CALC ERA	FIP	TRU ERA
FLY	0.135		0.462	65	53
LD	0.605		0.947	87	90
GB	0.269		0.295	110	95
ALL BIP	0.302		0.468	88	83
ALL PA	0.222	0.260	0.344	69	66	2.71	2.75	3.05	2.63
Syndergaard	AVG	OBP	SLG	REL PRD	ADJ PRD	ACT ERA	CALC ERA	FIP	TRU ERA
FLY	0.239		0.776	190	101
LD	0.582		0.890	78	89
GB	0.268		0.309	113	90
ALL BIP	0.315		0.529	103	93
ALL PA	0.223	0.263	0.374	76	69	3.24	3.00	3.25	2.73

The actual production allowed on each BIP type is indicated in the batting average (AVG) and slugging (SLG) columns, and is converted to run values and compared to MLB average in the REL PRD (or Unadjusted Contact Score) column. That figure is then adjusted for context, such as home park, team defense, luck, etc., in the ADJ PRD (or Adjusted Contact Score) column. For the purposes of this exercise, sacrifice hits (SH) and flies (SF) are included as outs and hit by pitchers (HBP) are excluded from the on-base percentage (OBP) calculation.

What jumps out here is the almost complete absence of numbers over 100 in the three pitchers’ ADJ PRD, or Adjusted Contact Score columns. With the exception of deGrom’s 103 Adjusted Contact Score on grounders and Syndergaard’s 101 on fly balls, each pitcher managed contact at a league average level of better on all BIP types. Syndergaard’s fly ball line item is particularly notable. He allowed a lusty actual .239 AVG-.776 SLG, for a 190 Unadjusted Contact Score on fly balls. There are a few cheap sub-100 mph just-enough homers on his 2015 record, however. Yes, Syndergaard was even better than his actual numbers this season.

deGrom, Harvey and Syndergaard’s overall Adjusted Contact Scores were 85, 83 and 93, respectively, in 2015. Add back their Ks and BBs, and their “tru” ERAs are exceptional across the board at 2.54, 2.63 and 2.73, all better than their respective FIPs, which don’t give them credit for allowing weaker than average contact. Syndergaard fell 12 innings short of qualifying for the ERA title, but even so, this is by far the best set of “tru” ERAs for a club’s top three starters. The closest competition comes from the Cubs (Jake Arrieta, 2.26, Jon Lester, 2.92, Kyle Hendricks, 3.36) and Indians (Carrasco, 2.76, Kluber, 3.02, Danny Salazar, 3.24). The Dodgers’ top two of Clayton Kershaw (2.18) and Zack Greinke (2.49) were both better than any Met, but they lacked a high-end third wheel.

The Big Three’s dominance leads to another key point that sets the Mets apart.

In-Season Adjustments Made by Players and Coaches
Coming into this postseason, there was much talk about Harvey’s innings limit specifically, and in general the potential for the Mets’ young starting pitchers to lose effectiveness as they blew past their career-high innings totals. That hasn’t exactly come to pass. Harvey’s situation obviously drew the most attention, as he is in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. How about deGrom, though? He’s already had a Tommy John, and, including the postseason, is 31 innings and counting above his career-high innings pitched total, and 63 above his second highest. Syndergaard is 30 innings and counting above his career high.

It’s one thing to post a career-high workload, but it’s another altogether to do so in the crucible of postseason play, while performing some of your best work of the season in the process. Pitching coach Dan Warthen deserves kudos for his role in making this happen, as well as for the transformation of Jeurys Familia into a fire-breathing monster. Remember, Jenrry Mejia was supposed to be the closer for this club, prior to receiving a pair of suspensions for the use of performance-enhancing drugs.

I would also be remiss if I failed to mention a second member of Terry Collins’ staff, hitting coach Kevin Long. Exhibit A would be Daniel Murphy. For years, Murphy has been a consistent but unspectacular everyday player for the Mets. This season, he dramatically cut his K rate while increasing his average BIP authority. That’s not an easy Daily Double to accomplish. Murphy has learned to selectively pull the baseball for distance, with the reaping of the benefits conveniently coming due in October.

And how about Curtis Granderson? He had devolved into an extremely pull oriented, extreme fly ball hitter in recent seasons, and a combination of the natural aging process along with increased infield overshifting had cut into his production. He still does pull the ball more than most, but the pop-up tendency has been addressed. While still above average, his pop-up rate percentile rank dropped significantly from 93 in 2014 to 67 in 2015. Simultaneously, his liner rate percentile rank spiked from 7 in 2014 to 93 in 2015. Part of that surely must be random variation, as liner rates fluctuate far more than those of other BIP types, but it should be noted that Granderson’s liner rate was below MLB average in five of the past six seasons. It was a different Curtis Granderson this season, and Long deserves some credit for that.

So here we are. The New York Mets have been the single most impressive team of this postseason, but that means nothing moving forward. To win the game’s ultimate prize, they’ll need their young pitchers and veteran hitters to continue to perform as they have to date. The Mets have proven to be a legitimate championship contender, no matter what happens against the Royals. Later this week, we’ll take a similar look at the two-time AL champs from Kansas City.