What the 2020 Season Will Look Like: Crowdsource Results Round 6

If all goes well, this might be the final installment of our crowdsourcing exercise, though if the responses from last week are any indication, we’ve got at least one more round to go. The number of responses was down a bit this week, but we still averaged around 1,000 responses per question. As for whether there will be a season, our readers answered with a resounding maybe:

Over the course of the first five polls, two out of every three responses indicated there would be a major league baseball season. It was basically a 50/50 proposition late last week when this poll ran:

(For reference, here are the results for May 20, May 6, April 22, April 8, and March 24)

As for this week’s results on the length of the season, here’s how things look:

For the first time, 76-100 was not the most likely response. The number of people picking zero games jumped up, understandably, but 51-75 was the clear choice among those who believed there would be baseball this year. With no deal, the schedule and the rumor of MLB imposing a 50-game season likely influenced responses.

When we’ve asked when the regular season will start, July and Never have emerged as the top responses. That was the case last week as well:

Whether there will be games at spring training sites was much more up in the air back in March and April, but most people no longer see it as a viable option:

And while it certainly looks like the bulk of the season will be played without fans, there are some municipalities that are discussing the possibility. Still, the number of people who believe there will be games with fans is pretty small if you compare the results below with the number of games answer above:

We are also seeing far fewer people say they believe the season will last into late-November, as the combined answers of October and early November now form the majority among those who think there will be a season:

While there was at one point something of a three-way split between whether we’d see normal playoffs, more playoffs, or less playoffs, more playoffs was the clear winner last time, and it is the same this time as well:

At this time last week, we were still waiting on an MLB response to the union’s proposal; the state of the season looked pretty dire. That’s clearly reflected in the answers here. I suspect that by this time next week, we’ll have a clearer view of where the season is going to go. I hope so, anyway.





Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.

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pepper69fun
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pepper69fun

Not that my opinion is better than anyone else’s, but I view a season occurring as roughly 99.999% likely. In the very possible event that owners and players cannot agree, then owners will impose season length unilaterally, which even players agree is their right. I don’t see players striking over a 48-50 game season. Reaching an agreement is just not necessary to have a season.

Goms
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Yeah I don’t understand the people voting no. The owners can force a season! A season is happening barring coronavirus exploding.

pepper69fun
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pepper69fun

Absolutely. Could the owners be any more clear they want playoffs in October to get tv money?

MikeS
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MikeS

I’m not a lawyer, but it seems to me that while the owners maybe can force a season, they would then be obligated to honor the contracts that they signed, just like the players would be. That means no discounts for empty stadiums, no deferred money, maybe even no discount for games lost depending on how the contracts are written. They would also generate a lot of ill will and the current CBA only runs through 2021. Forcing the players to play is unlikely to make the next round of negotiations easier.

Furthermore, some states like California, Illinois, and New York (that’s nearly a quarter of the league) could prohibit it for health reasons, although that seems less and less likely. But if governments want to prevent baseball they can do so pretty easily, especially since something like 2/3 of MLB stadiums are publicly owned.

It’s a lot more complicated than the owners just saying “Fuck it, we’re playing. Show up or you are in breach of your contract.”

pepper69fun
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pepper69fun

March agreement allowed prorated pay. Can’t go back on that. Owners want to say breach of contract and that is full pay regardless of games played

pepper69fun
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pepper69fun

March agreement also let’s owners set season length as long as full prorated paid

pepper69fun
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pepper69fun

Victory lap!