What the 2020 Season Will Look Like Crowdsource Results
Last week, I asked our readers to answer a few questions about what they think this season of baseball might look like. While none of us actually know when or even if the season will be played, your answers provide a window into your expectations and also show how optimistic (or pessimistic) you are about there being more live baseball in 2020 as COVID-19 continues to affect all of our lives.
We received more than 1,000 responses for every question with the first one being the most basic:
A pretty clear majority believes there will be some from of major league baseball this season, though more than a quarter of readers thought the season would simply be wiped out.
Next, I asked how many regular season games would be played this year:
The first question had more responses than this one, which helps explain the disparity between zero games in this question and the “No” responses in the first. Nearly half of you believed MLB would play around half a season, with a majority believing the season would go 76 games or more.
As for when the season begins, July was the most popular response, with quite a few June answers as well:
As for where games will be played, most of you did not think games would be played at spring training sites:
On the other hand, a majority of you believed there would be at least some games played without fans:
There was a nearly 50/50 split about whether the playoffs would proceed in the form they normally do, though the 50% who believed it would be an abnormal playoff setup were split on whether that meant more or fewer rounds:
As for when the playoffs will end, most believed November would see the World Series champion crowned, with a Thanksgiving end being the most popular:
As a bonus, here are the results from an earlier article when I discussed the possibility of a round-robin playoff round ahead of the normal playoff structure:
Overall, the results indicate that we expect roughly half a regular season of baseball starting in July in major league stadiums with a month or less of empty stadium games and the season concluding around the end of November. I don’t know about everybody else, but if I had the ability to push a button and make that happen right now, I’d take it.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
I predict if you run the same poll again this week, you will get a very different result.
Most likely change is increased responses of “no baseball in 2020” each time you run the poll, given the shorter timeline. Therefore, it would likely be depressing to run the poll again.
With all the talk of a second wave coming in the fall, the idea of stretching the season longer into November may begin to lose steam.
I know I am way more pessimistic than I was last week.
Breaks my heart to say it but I don’t think there’s a popsicles chance in hell that we have a season in 2020. I hope I’m very wrong but the cdc director just said the virus will stay with us for months more and there just isn’t much time and a chance for mlb to get health clearances from doctors and all that they want to start a season. I know baseball is far from important these days with what’s going on now I had hoped it would be there to give me a tiny distraction from the incredible pain of losing my wonderful father six weeks ago — he was a amazing father and I just hoped to have three hours a night to think of something else.
It is obvious much less important than what’s going on in the real world but it’d be a damn shame not to see guy like deGrom, Trout and Betts among many stars for a long time and for them to lose a peak year of their careers but it pales in comparison to all the people getting sick and all the people that have lost their lives due to the coronavirus.
A lot will depend on the (currently) low infected states and regions.
There are vast differences in numbers of infected county by county.
If the low infection counties stay low until treatment protocols are validated there will be baseball by august.
If the low infection regions just haven’t gotten started, then the year is done.
Me, I’m still betting on August.
People are downvoting me less for my pessimism this week. Still hope I am wrong, though.
Last week, I thought there would be baseball at Spring Training sites in Florida and Arizona. My theory was based on the fact that it looked like things were going to peak in late April and then start coming down–it seems like it takes at least a month for things to reopen after the peak, potentially more like 2 months (this number was just a guess based on what I had seen in other countries, when they seemed to be able to move to a test-and-trace policy). So if things peaked in late April, then I figured that they could do Spring Training at some point in June, followed by games without fans at Spring Training sites.
But I’m now less certain things are going to be under control in Florida and Arizona. Especially Florida. And it’s going to be a crazy long time before there can be any test and trace there–1-2 months after peak looks kind of naive to me now, and I can’t believe I thought that last week. And those two things create a domino effect, because if it (a) peaks later and (b) it takes longer for things to get back to normal after the peak then you can’t have Spring Training OR Spring Training baseball in Florida and Arizona.
In order for baseball to come back, on any sort of a schedule, you’d have to do Spring Training and games without fans in places where things are under control–like minor league stadiums in states where things are under control. It doesn’t look like they’re considering that, though. If they insist on doing Spring Training after everything is calmed down in even the worst states with MLB teams, then you’re looking at July at the earliest for Spring Training, and potentially even August. I still think they’ll play baseball, but at this point I do have to wonder how long the season will be.
Here is my proposal for baseball in 2020. This will never happen, but this is what I want to see happen.
-Run an abbreviated baseball season through September, something that looks kind of like what you would normally see (except probably without fans).
-Starting at some point in October, play all games at Arizona, Texas, Milwaukee, Houston, Toronto, Seattle (all have retractable roofs). Six divisions; six “home” stadiums. All gate revenues split equally among the division teams (if you can even have fans; that might not happen). Do that through about Thanksgiving.
-After Thanksgiving, run the playoffs at whatever sites worked the best among those stadiums.
(You could probably extend this and do games in Atlanta and Southern California and Miami if you wanted to–maybe also DC and Baltimore?).
Biggest concern to me isn’t the fans, it’s the same thing that shut down the NBA- What happens when a player tests positive? We play games for in July & then Bryce Harper tests positive in August, now you have to quarantine the entire Phillies team, plus the team(s) they just played & then the teams those teams have played in the meantime.
1 guy & 4-5 teams are shut down for 3-4 weeks minimum. The whole season grinds to a halt. Just not sure how you get around it unless there is some breakthrough in treatment or vaccine or something.
I have the same concerns about football, basketball, etc.
This is the big question. Right now the only real option if a player, or anybody in the clubhouse, tests positive is to shut things down. Until something happens to change that or until there’s a way to be virtually certain that nobody catches the virus in the first place, I can’t see how games can start. Because with a couple thousand people in clubhouses league wide, a low infection rate isn’t good enough.
The even bigger problem is that there is no way that a vaccine will exist and be given to enough people that you won’t have the same problem in 2021.
I’m really worried that we might actually miss 2 years of baseball.
Who are these 71% of people who think baseball will be played in 2020 and for my followup, what is the source of their magical hopes and expectations?