Where Can the Astros Fit Alex Bregman?

One of the hardest decisions a GM has to make is when to cut ties with a franchise icon. Free agency usually comes around right as a player’s aging curve starts to get hairy, and in many cases the club would be better off shaking hands with the player and parting friends, rather than sinking hundreds of millions of dollars in order to force the fans to watch their hero decline.

Unless, of course, the player in question goes off and signs with a rival and keeps producing. In which case, not only is the original team worse off, everyone involved in the decision looks like an idiot. And not just that, a callous idiot, which is the worst kind of idiot to be.

As the last days of January whistle by, two of the top remaining free agents — Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso — find themselves in precisely the situation I’ve just described. And for that reason, both players and their former employers have re-engaged in contract talks to see if they can work things out after all.

For Alonso, the incentives are clear. He wants to be paid like a four-time All-Star and — by virtue of being the top power hitter for a New York team — one of the most visible players in the league. If he were to return to the Mets, the lineup would probably feature a little more Mark Vientos at third base than anyone wants. But we all, like Tool, know the pieces fit.

Unfortunately, as much as Alonso is all of those things I said in the last paragraph, he’s a 30-year-old right-right power-only corner guy who looks headed for a precipitous collapse in bat speed. At least in the context of a long-term contract, it’s a profile I wouldn’t touch with someone else’s 10-foot pole. You remember sad Albert Pujols on the Angels? This is how you get sad Albert Pujols on the Angels. And thus, we have an impasse.

Bregman is eight months older than his former SEC rival, but his skill set is much more varied. Also, just in terms of hitting, Bregman has been almost exactly as valuable as Alonso over the past three seasons: A 127 wRC+ in 2,014 plate appearances for Bregman, 128 in 2,038 for Alonso.

Which is not to say there aren’t reasons to worry; in 2024, Bregman posted his lowest walk rate since his rookie year, thanks to a huge uptick in swing rate across all zones. Nevertheless, in eight major league seasons he’s never recorded a wRC+ lower than 114, and even though his MVP contender days are in the rearview mirror, he’s amassed at least 4.1 WAR three years running, and in all six of his full major league seasons.

So yeah, what the heck, why wouldn’t the Astros — as they’re reportedly considering — just run it back? This has been an enormously fruitful partnership; last season, Bregman passed Jimmy Wynn and Nolan Ryan, among others, for eighth place on the all-time franchise WAR list. He’s a good week away from breaking into the top 10 on the franchise hits list, and a good season, two at the most, from the top five in career home runs.

Except, the Astros already made two moves this offseason that make sense only if Bregman is leaving, but not if he’s coming back.

The first: Trading Kyle Tucker for a package of Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith, and Hayden Wesneski. In other words, the Astros converted their best player into not one but two young third basemen. But hey, Smith isn’t ready now, and might not be for another year, and Paredes has nearly 400 major league innings at first base.

But then, a week later, Houston signed Christian Walker to a three-year contract. I was a bit lukewarm on the Tucker trade; at best, I thought it was a satisfactory return under a framework of value and approach to team-building that I don’t really agree with. But I loved the Walker signing, a reasonable deal for a middle-of-the-order hitter who’s also one of the few first basemen who defends the position well enough that it makes a real difference. He might play a different position from Bregman, but he’s a smart right-handed hitter with some punch, and therefore a solid replacement in the lineup and clubhouse.

But adding Walker does pretty much force Paredes to play third base. Paredes has played all four infield positions in the major leagues, including shortstop, but he’s only made four starts there ever, and none since 2021. Which is fine — he’s about a scratch defender at third and his pull-side power potential in Minute Maid Park has been discussed ad nauseam.

Paredes’ presence, however, does leave Bregman without a place to play.

(I’ve highlighted Bregman in yellow here, on account of his not actually being on the team at this juncture.)

So there’s some defensive flexibility here, but not a ton. We know Bregman can play third, and well. We know he played shortstop for long periods of time early in his career to cover for an injured Carlos Correa, in addition to spending three years at the position at LSU. I’m not sure it’s still a safe bet he’d be good there, but in any event, the Astros have Peña at that position.

I don’t love Peña as a player; in fact, I think he’s pretty overrated. But even his greatest detractors would admit that he’s about an average hitter and a competent defender at an absolute minimum. The Astros would have to be nuts to move him to another position to accommodate Bregman.

The other position I’d circle for Bregman is second base, which is where I thought he’d end up when he was a prospect. And if the Astros didn’t have Altuve, he might well have. But Altuve has been Houston’s everyday second baseman for almost 15 years now. Ordinarily he’d be less likely to move than anyone, but apparently he’s volunteering to play left field now, especially if doing so would facilitate a reunion with Bregman.

If Bregman does come back, something’s got to change, because the Astros — even with Smith still in the minor league sous vide bag — would have five starters for four infield positions. Moving one of them to designated hitter isn’t really an option for two reasons: First, all five provide significant defensive value that would be wasted by DHing them. And second, Yordan Alvarez is camped out at that position, and if only by virtue of his considerable physical mass, would be difficult to move.

Which is a shame, because unless we’re in line for a Taylor Trammell breakout or a Chas McCormick bounce back of legendary proportions, Houston’s outfield looks pretty doodoopants. It would be nice to move one of the surfeit of infielders out to fill one of those holes, or to put Alvarez’s bat in left full-time.

I remember catching some flak for denigrating Alvarez’s defense a while back. He might be slow, but he provides value with his arm, went the argument. Even if that’s true, I don’t feel awesome about recycling an argument I remember being used about Pat Burrell. If Alvarez plays a couple dozen games in left to facilitate matchups or provide injury cover, fine. I wouldn’t make it Plan A to start him there 140 times a year.

Besides, this is the American League version of the Dodgers’ defensive inflexibility problem. You can’t rotate players into DH because one of the 10 best hitters in the world needs that spot full-time? Boo-hoo, give me a second to find the world’s smallest violin.

So we return to the idea of Altuve in left, which I don’t love. Partially — and I concede that this is irrational — I remember the last time the Astros moved a future Hall of Fame second baseman to the outfield to make room for a younger infielder. It didn’t work out great, and Craig Biggio was back on the dirt after two regrettable years.

I’m not much more optimistic about Altuve in left. Across all leagues and levels, Altuve has played 19,485 1/3 innings in the field. You want to know how many of those were in the outfield? You probably already do: Zero. And in addition to that total lack of experience, Altuve has a well below-average arm even by the standards of second base.

To be sure, Altuve has had his defensive struggles at second: Remember when he got the yips in 2020? In fact, the Astros contemplated moving him to the outfield then. Maybe they should have, because in 2021 he was still a plus runner. That’s not exactly the case anymore. Altuve’s sprint speed hung around the 80th percentile in his 20s, up to the high 80s for a few years. In 2024, his sprint speed dropped to the 44th percentile. His defensive numbers at second base are also on the decline, but a lack of top-end speed would only be more noticeable in the outfield.

I suppose left field is where you put guys who don’t run all that well and can’t throw, but moving Altuve there would put his bat in a much less flattering context. Even entering his age-35 season, Altuve can rake: He posted a 127 wRC+ last season, and topped 150 in each of the two prior seasons. But those contributions would be less valuable where the baseline for offense is higher. Last season, second basemen hit .247/.310/.374, for a 93 wRC+. Left fielders hit .243/.316/.399, for a 101 wRC+.

The Astros know and clearly like Bregman, and the free agent market for outfielders this year was horrific. In a vacuum, I’d rather give Bregman $140 million over six years than Anthony Santander or Tyler O’Neill or Jurickson Profar a high-teens AAV over three to five. But considering how the rest of this roster has been built, the Astros would’ve been much, much better off doing the opposite.

Or, you know, not trading Tucker in the first place.

If I were Astros GM Dana Brown, and I were given license to sign Bregman, I wouldn’t move Altuve to the outfield. I’d trade Paredes.

Which would be a bit of a party foul, considering that Paredes has already been dealt twice in the past six months and hasn’t played a game for Houston yet. As a gesture of goodwill, I’d cut him a check to help him break the lease on his rental in The Woodlands. But Paredes is entering his age-26 season, with three years of team control left, and while he’s got a bit of an odd profile, he has usable skills and the ability to play multiple infield positions. The Astros clearly thought he was valuable enough to trade for him in the first place — there’s got to be another team with an extra outfielder and a hankering to make a challenge trade.

That’s the only way I see Bregman fitting with the Astros again. “Don’t mess with a good thing” is a really good argument most of the time. Less so after you’ve already messed with the good thing.