Whit Merrifield and Royals Seek Safety
There aren’t many candidates for best player on the Kansas City Royals. Salvador Perez is a holdover from the team’s run to consecutive World Series’, including one title. Adalberto Mondesi has just 500 plate appearances across three seasons, but he showed considerable promise last season with 14 homers, 32 steals, and a 114 wRC+ in just half a season. The third candidate, and the subject of this post, is Whit Merrifield. The Royals second baseman has been the club’s best player over the past two seasons by putting eight wins, with the only other players above four (Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer) not even on the team a season ago. Merrifield was a late bloomer, not playing a full season until he was 29 years old in 2017, and that makes him an unusual contract extension candidate, but he and the Royals reached a reasonable deal to buy out his remaining arbitration years.
At first glance, the terms of the deal look incredibly slight for Merrifield, getting just $16.25 million guaranteed with $2 million in performance bonuses, per Jon Morosi. With a second straight slow winter for free agents and Manny Machado and Bryce Harper unable to get the long-term deals they desire so far, seeing an All-Star second baseman coming off a very good season settle for such a small guarantee screams out as another piece of evidence of owners getting the better of players. However, that’s not really the case here due to Merrifield’s age and service time.
Merrifield got a late start to his major league career due to a slow crawl up the minors. He was solid in his first full minor league season, posting an average line in High-A back in 2011, and when he repeated the league in 2012, he was roughly the same player and then struggled in a brief promotion to Double-A. The next season he was the same roughly average player at Double-A. He then tore through Double-A in 2014 and held his own in Triple-A, getting to the cusp of the majors, but he took a step back the following season back in Triple-A, entering the 2016 campaign at 27 years old without a callup.
Finally making the big leagues, Merrifield proved to be an above-average player thanks to decent defense, great baserunning, and a roughly average bat. He broke out last season, increasing his walk rate, posting slightly-below-average power numbers with a great BABIP on his way to a 120 wRC+. His 45 steals in 55 tries plus good running -numbers on balls in play added another seven runs above average, resulting in a five-win season. His projections next season are closer to three wins, but there is little doubt that Merrifield is a good, solid player who will help the Royals win more games than they would have without him.
Unfortunately for Merrifield, he enters the 2019 season with just two-and-a-half seasons in the bigs. He’s not yet eligible for arbitration, and he won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2022 season. Players with Merrifield’s service time and good track records in the big leagues are often approached about contract extensions. They are looking at one more season at the league-minimum salary, and teams take advantage of that lack of security by offering players millions of dollars. In exchange for that security, teams generally insist on a year or two of the player’s free agent seasons at a discounted rate. Those seasons often become massive bargains as players push out their free agent seasons and teams don’t have to pay for any of the player’s decline seasons. Whit Merrifield presents an interesting case.
When Merrifield hits free agency for the first time, he will be 34 years old. While the Royals certainly like Merrifield for his on-field contributions now, he’s not likely to be the same player at 34 that he is right now. Those free agent years might not be particularly valuable for the Royals, which lessens the club’s interest in guaranteeing money for those years. They might be interested in an option year, but that makes less sense for Merrifield. Security makes sense for Merrifield as opposed to playing out this season and then going to arbitration, where he might get around $4 million if he puts together a solid campaign. If he keeps playing well, he might get $6 million or $7 million in 2021, and then $10 million or $12 million in 2022. Going year-to-year in arbitration probably gets him around $20 million or so if he keeps playing well.
In the end, Merrifield gets his security and the Royals take a 20% discount on the likely outcome. This deal is reminiscent of the one the Twins signed Brian Dozier to four years ago. That contract paid Dozier $20 million over four seasons. Value-wise, Dozier had similar numbers to Merrifield with 7.4 WAR over the previous two years and a 4.5 WAR season just prior to signing the extension. Because Dozier had numbers that pay in arbitration, namely homers, he was likely to receive more money in arbitration than Merrifield. Dozier was also two years younger, making a decline less likely. It was important to Dozier at that time to be able to hit free agency now as opposed to a few years from now. A disappointing 2018 season meant just a one-year deal for Dozier, although if he had kept playing at his 2014-2017 level, he would have been able to cash in on free agency, even in this slow market.
Merrifield’s contract is just an update of the Dozier contract, where teams get some cost certainty and a discount in the arbitration years while the player gets security and doesn’t give up any free agent seasons. These contracts don’t happen often because there is little incentive for the team compared to most of the guarantees they offer to players before they hit arbitration. If the players want security, the cost is generally a free agent year or two. Merrifield’s late age compared to his service time peers created an opportunity for the Royals and their second baseman to reach a deal, and given these factors, it is a pretty reasonable one for both sides.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Besides being set for life, Merrifield has to figure this deal keeps him attractive to contending teams right now. If he places a high value on getting a WS ring, this can’t hurt his chances.
Can’t imagine a player being excited to have an attractive contract for acquiring teams. Attractive to teams = underpaid. If I were a player I’d want to be on an albatross deal.
Still, good deal on both sides IMO. Royals get a likely discount. Merrifield gets life-changing money. One of baseball’s worst teams buying out arb years for a 30 year old is pretty boring as far as offseason storylines go, but I guess that’s where we’re at in 2019.
Phrased the way you put it, no, Whit probably wouldn’t be excited to have a contract that’s “attractive to contending teams.” But consider the relative position that he’s in and how Craig outlined it above.
Could Whit be excited to have a contract that “guarantees ~80% of what his maximum earning power over the next four seasons could be while greatly increasing the probably he won’t play on a team that sucks?”
Sure, I could see that.
I agree that Whit is pleased with the deal, which I said in my comment. But I don’t understand why buying out his arb years on a minor discount “greatly increases” the odds of him being traded to a better team. Would a contending team have been scared off by the idea of acquiring a prearb player with 4 years of control who *might* make $20M if he stays good?
This fails to recognize how AAV works for tax purposes. Lets imagine Merrifield doesn’t sign this deal and is traded. His pay goes something like 500k, 3m, 5m, 8m or something
Since those salaries are arbitrated each year, in the later two years of the deal, his tax value is substantially higher than it is when it’s a consistent 4m
Cost surety is easier to build around and the team is less likely to nontender a 33 year old Merrifield who isn’t worth what he’ll earn as an Arb3.
Very, very good point. I don’t think that’s something regularly considered when we look at arb extensions.
When I say “greatly increases,” admittedly I mean going from like 10% to like 25% or something. Still more likely than not he remains a Royal but 25% is (2.5)10%.
I’m not so sure he does “greatly increase the chance he won’t play on a team that sucks”.
Since he’s cheap, the Royals have no incentive to offload him unless some playoff-bound team offers a king’s ransom…which no team would do given the glut of options out there at second base; most of them could be had at less prospect cost.
Im not sure about that. If he goes out and has another 4 WAR type season, then I’m sure a team that’s desperate for a quality 2B will offer an attractive package. Especially a team like the Dodgers who could very well have a hole at second base, value positional flexibility, and are desperate to get over the hump by winning it all.
Sure, but didn’t we assume the same about Brian Dozier? He likely exceeded even the best projection for Merrifield in 2016-2017 (11.2 fWAR), and he ultimately was traded in his walk year for a relatively paltry return. Now, maybe a good deal of blame for that outcome should be placed on the Twins themselves for holding out for too long.
The lesson: if Merrifield continues to exceed expectations, based on his profile, the Royals will likely be better of trading him sooner rather than later. And this extension makes the player slightly more valuable under those circumstances.
“Interestingly”, the Royals were the only team who were allowed to negotiate a contract with Whit. I imagine that a lot of teams aren’t necessarily scared or concerned about trading for a player like him running through arbitration, but I can imagine the request to negotiate an extension prior to a trade being difficult and this deal might actually make him more attractive to other teams…
Maybe.
Any player can play his contract into an albatross if he wants it bad enough.
I would also argue that a player who desperately wants to be traded would not sign an extension at all. There’s a greater chance today that he’s a Royal for life than yesterday.
I don’t understand. Royals get a 20% discount on the best case scenario. Let’s say they are now paying for the 80% scenario. The odds are for a 50% scenario. Seems more like the team is signaling a loyalty bonus for players sticking with it or something. The arb risk to them is low and they could have cut bait anytime along the way; team options each year. Now, they are locked in. Weird.
This is a pretty standard situation and outcome. Merrifield–and other players in his position–will beat the contract far more often than not. But if Merrifield loses with a career threatening injury, he loses everything. If the team makes enough of these deals, they come out ahead because they’re getting a discount; they can spread the risk around, while the player only gets one career.
I think the main critique here has more to do with his age; the Royals aren’t necessarily pricing in his likely speed declines, which is what his game is built around. But even with that, it makes enough sense for it to have happened.
It’s entirely possible that the article was edited. But when I read it this morning (and last night), I see ” a 20% discount on the likely outcome.”. That’s a lot different than a 20% discount on the best case scenario.
If he keeps performing like he did in 2017 (~3 WAR, solid batting average and decent pop) then he can exceed $20 mil in arbitration.
It’s essentially an insurance policy for a guy who probably didn’t imagine making this kind of money 3 years ago as a late-20’s minor leaguer.
So the article never actually mentions the length of the deal. It appears the deal is for 4 years, 16.25M with 2M in potential performance bonuses. Maybe something to update and include in the article.
I can see the deal working for the player, even if he’s leaving money on the table. 2nd basemen don’t always age particularly well (I wonder if it has to do with their comparative athleticism earlier which put them at second instead of at short) and the younger in years player is always one injury away from being a spare part. This money, if reasonably well managed, will give him security for the rest of his life and on a team he’s comfortable. Yes, the Royals used their leverage, but the player needs to be aware of the surroundings, and, let’s face it, teams are being frugal.
It’s not evidence of MLB owners colluding to pay players less. It is, though, more evidence that the current CBA is really broken. Whit Merrifield is a late bloomer, it’s true. It’s also true that he was 0.1 fWAR from being the best 2B in baseball last year, and ended up being the 16th-highest position player overall in fWAR. That he got ‘rewarded’ with a contract $9M less than the arb buyout of Tim Anderson– who the White Sox *hope* will turn out to be as good as Merrifield and in 2.7 seasons hasn’t produced a career fWAR equal to Merrifield’s 5.2 in 2018– is broken.
It’s not enough to be a star to get Paid in today’s MLB. Players have to be prodigies, i.e. to both break in to the majors and then break out as stars significantly younger than their peers.
Well, you have to be good for more than three years, or be good enough to be in the big leagues for three years and then get good. That could change in the next CBA, but I’d bet against it. I’d like to see an increase to the minimum, but I don’t think that would change this much.
or we can also get players called up faster. Have the rule 5 include anyone over 20 years of age.
Merrifield is a pretty big outlier. Not many guys go from looking like a career minor leaguer at age 27 to five win MLB player at age 30. I think this is just a weird case more than anything.
Dont get me wrong, the system is broken but I dont think Merrifield is a particularly good example of how its broken. This specific scenario would only apply to a very very very small amount of players. I mean, how many everyday players in MLB did not make their MLB debut until age 27?
Late bloomers aren’t that uncommon. Jose Bautista debuted at 24, but had a grand total of 0.4 fWAR until his age-30 breakout season. J.D. Martinez didn’t break out until age-28, Pham didn’t until age-29. Pham and Merrifield, though, are unlikely to get one sizable contract like the other two did because their games depend more on speed, which is the first to fade.
I mean, naming 3 guys who span a period of like 15 years doesnt really prove its not uncommon, lol.
And even those guys you named are not really comparable to Merrifield. Martinez and Bautista had late breakouts but were still playing in MLB before that (AKA: accumulating service time). Martinez played 250+ games before his breakout. Bautista played nearly 600 games. Merrifield didnt see a single second of MLB action until he was nearly 28 and didnt play his first full season until he was nearly 29. Which means he basically will never hit free agency.
Regardless, we are talking about an issue that only applies to maybe like a dozen guys in the past decade? If that? Not exactly the most pressing issue.
Cmon now don’t doubt these things just grab your pitchfork its 2019!
At first, the dollar amount disappointed me, but given his age, service time, and relative abilities, I’m glad he got paid. He’s really a more valuable player than he’s getting paid for, but here we are.
Yes we are here in what the players AGREED upon last Cba
Whit is another poster child of how unfair it is to treat all players the same with arbitration and free agency. And this seems like it would be a pretty easy pill for MLB to swallow, as in it wouldn’t take that much of a concession on something else from the players. No player should have to wait until he is 34 to be a free agent. And sense the vast majority of players that do have to wait that long are not going to be the guys signing massive deals anyway, it should not be hard to adjust the system a little bit to make it more fair. Every player gets arbitration by age 29 and free agency by age 32. Make it happen, MLBPA.
I would remind that Merrifield’s late start was due to being blocked by powerhouses like concussed Chris Getz and post broken jawed Omar Infante. At the time local folks thought he should have been called up a year earlier. That was a mistake Dayton Moore made and now he does a little payback for it, although insufficient in my view. Should have added a couple million signing bonus to get Whit life changing money up front.
He’s already given the Royals around $80m of value for less than $2m in salary and is likely to deliver another $30m-$40m value next season, so will recoup the value of the extension in one season. Good for both sides. Royals get cheap production , Merrifield gets security.
MLBTR gave a good look yesterday with more comps and details.
I would add that if Whit looks like he’s holding up in his third year that it wouldn’t be out of character for Dayton Moore to reopen the contract and give him a decent bump for the fourth year, maybe in exchange for another team option.
Im the same age as Merrifield and, until last year, I had more career earnings than he did. If someone says “you realistically have 3-5 more years of max earning potential”, I absolutely take it this deal regardless of profession.
It’s a good deal for him. It’s also a tradeable deal for KC. Which would mean he gets the added utility of playing for a winner.
Good all around I say.
So last year’s Hits and Stolen Bases leader only gets $4m/year. Yeah he gets some security and is probably happy with the money considering he was looking like a fringe MLB player a few years ago. I just hope that he gets traded to another team so that he can get a taste of the postseason.
Chances are, the last two years of his contract are what the Royals might’ve paid to a free agent utility infielder anyway so there’s some advantage sticking with the one you know.
For a guy who didn’t play his first full season until he was 29, and based on the current system, feels like a good move for him. Happy for the guy. Wish he could get more, but good for him.