Wild Card Series Day 2 Chat

September 30, 2020

1:00	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to today’s Wild Card Series Day 2 chat. I’ll be joined here by Dan Szymborski, Tony Wolfe and maybe Meg Rowley in due course

1:01	Jay Jaffe: we’re all going to have baseball coming out of our ears by the time today is over

1:02	Jay Jaffe: Reds-Braves is already going, Astros-Twins about to start, Marlins Cubs at 2 pm ET, White Sox-A’s at 3, Blue Jays-Rays at 4, C, Cardinals-Padres at 5

1:02	Jay Jaffe: (pauses to catch breath)

1:02	Jay Jaffe: Yankees-Indians at 7 ET, and finally Dodgers-Brewers at 10

1:02	James: I’ve been a Padre fan for the past 12 years and this is the first time I’ve seen my team in the playoffs. So, I cannot understate how sad I am that both Clevenger and Lamet will not be pitching in this series.

1:03	Jay Jaffe: it’s a huge bummer, to say the least. I know the Padres tried to play this one close to the vest but it seemed pretty clear once I read about past biceps injuries along the lines of Clevinger’s that they’d really be pushing it to try to pitch him, and likewise Lamet

1:04	Dan Szymborski: Hello!

1:04	Jay Jaffe: hi Dan!

1:04	Tony Wolfe: My Padres WS winner prediction took about 24 hours to age HORRIBLY

1:05	Dan Szymborski: Hey jay, Tony

1:05	Tony Wolfe: also, hello everyone

1:05	5 Run Homer: Trevor Bauer is truly exhausting

1:06	Tony Wolfe: there are a lot of definitions this statement fits

1:06	Jay Jaffe: indeed

1:06	Tommy: Is Votto a Hall of Famer?

1:06

Jay Jaffe: The back end of his career isn’t looking too pretty but I think so. He’s got a nice set of traditional accomplishments, is a favorite of statheads and writers, is well above the peak WAR standard by my system and within half a point in JAWS, with three years still remaining on his contract

1:06	Jay Jaffe: Notably, Votto is only 92 hits away from 2,000, and should get there with a normal-sized season next year

1:07	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: What does the sale of the Mets likely mean for my namesake?

1:07	Jay Jaffe: The jig is up for you, pal

1:07	Tony Wolfe: a dorky thing about me is that I was very excited to ask jay about votto being a hall of famer when I got to meet him in person

1:07	Jay Jaffe: LOL wow, Tony

1:08	Jay Jaffe: I’m actually working on something HOF- and first base-related. Can’t promise when it will land but thoughts about Freeman, Votto, Goldschmidt, and Rizzo

1:09	druidiful: It is high. It is far. It is… caught in front of the warning track.

1:09	Tony Wolfe: let the postseason ball discourse begin

1:09	Jay Jaffe: Re: Tebow, I can’t imagine a new regime (if indeed there is one) bringing back an age-33 outfielder who hit .163/.240/.255 and then wasn’t even invited to the alternate site.

1:11	Sultan of Say: I like Alex Kirilloff starting for the Twins, but why would you sit Buxton instead of Rosario?

1:12	Jay Jaffe: Probably because Buxton isn’t healthy. Was showing concussion symptoms and honestly i’m not even sure he should be on the roster

1:12	Dan Szymborski: Geez, so who starts? Morejon? Morejon/Richards split game?

1:12	Dan Szymborski: (Dan’t running the projections)

1:12	Dan Szymborski: Dan’s

1:13	Jay Jaffe: I tried to sketch out a plan when it was only Clevinger who looked to be absent and even then it was difficult https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-padres-face-a-postseason-without-mike-…

1:13	Jay Jaffe: I’d maybe think in terms of openers and bulk guys for Richards and Morejon

1:14	Jay Jaffe: because it doesn’t feel like they can count on anyone to go 6 solid innings. Even Paddack feels like a risk right now

1:15	tz: Is today the closest MLB has ever come to the first Thursday of March Madness?

1:15	Jay Jaffe: I mean, we’ve maxed out at four playoff games in a single day. This is twice that. It’s gotta be a ton of fun for fans but from the standpoint of trying to cover it, and potentially 8 games apiece on back-to-back days, it’s a lot for our little site.

1:16	Jay Jaffe: BUT WE ARE UP TO THE CHALLENGE

1:16	Jay Jaffe: (I’m worried I won’t have enough screens to see all the games, personally)

1:16	GSon: As a NYY fan, gotta love the way the Yankees turned the odds on favorite to win the AL Cy Young winner into a batting practice winner.. Do the Yankees close em out or is there some fight left?

1:17	Tony Wolfe: I still think Cleveland has the SP edge, but Bieber got annihilated last night, so

1:18	Tony Wolfe: Tanaka’s also really good in the postseason (46 IP, 1.76 ERA)

1:18	Jay Jaffe: The Yankees looked pretty good last night, and they’re obviously in the drivers’ seat now. If Judge and Stanton are back to being threats, there’s just nowhere to hide in that lineup except maybe Sanchez, who’s not a true talent 69 wRC+ guy i don’t think

1:18	Jay Jaffe: i’ve covered some sterling Tanaka postseason starts

1:19	Jay Jaffe: that guy is nails

1:19	Jay Jaffe: Tanaka-Carrasco, even https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/10/09/yankees-indians-alds-masahiro-tanaka…

1:21	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: What kind of contract can Ozuna expect in this weird, covid-dependent offseason? Over/under 3/$75?

1:22	Jay Jaffe: I’d love to see what Dan’s projections say but I’m sure he can do better than that, coming off such a strong season in a winter with very few impact bats available.

1:24

Jay Jaffe: Looking at our spiffy new free agent tracker https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?sort=-1,1, Ozuna is tied for the highest WAR of any pending free agent, and is younger than LeMahieu (also 2.5 WAR) and Springer (1.9). After those two and Realmuto, the dropoff is steep, not that guys like Gregorius and Brantley won’t find decent deals

1:25	Darth NateR: After a Brewers upset, what upset would most surprise the folks on this chat?

1:25	Jay Jaffe: Twins threatening here in the first thanks to an Altuve error, 12_ 2 out.

1:25	Tony Wolfe: Kind of a boring answer since it’s the other 1 v 8 matchup, but the Jays always seemed like a longshot over TB

1:25	Jay Jaffe: A Blue Jays comeback from down 1-0 versus the Rays, a Padres pennant given the state of their rotation

1:26	Tony Wolfe: They just don’t have enough arms, even before dropping Game 1 last night

1:26	Jay Jaffe: no, they don’t. But those bats can be fierce

1:27	Tony Wolfe: for sure

1:27	Domingo: Is Bauer the coolest player in the game?

1:27	Jay Jaffe: ugh

1:27	Tony Wolfe: trevor what are you doing in this chat you’re supposed to be pitching

1:28	Jay Jaffe: he stepped off the mound to engage in some targeted harassment on Twitter

1:28	Dan Szymborski: OK, postseason projections updated.

1:28	Dan Szymborski: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips?&ser…

1:29	Jay Jaffe: wow, Padres still 67%?

1:30	Tony Wolfe: Twins strand bases loaded in the first again. That should go fine

1:30	Jay Jaffe: They had one job

1:31	Central: Any truth to the speculation that some of the very best seasons all coming from the central were aided by the bad offenses in those divisions?

1:32	Jay Jaffe: I think the lack of interdivisional play makes every dominant season somewhat suspect. The AL Central had four of the league’s six lowest-scoring teams, for example

1:33	Jay Jaffe: in the dugout interview, Baldelli saying Buxton’s out because he’s not 100% but wouldn’t elaborate

1:33	Dan Szymborski: There’s a very weird Central is the Toughest Because They Have Seven Playoff Teams! meme going around even though the reason they have seven playoff teams is that they have several of the weakest teams in baseball.

1:33	Jay Jaffe: Royals and Pirates were among the least competitive teams in the majors

1:34	gump: You would think that the Twins would have found ABs for Kirillof in the regular season rather than having him take his very first career AB in the playoffs.

1:34	Dan Szymborski: Royals/Pirates/Tigers probably weaker than all East teams this year and probably all but Rangers in West.

1:34	Jay Jaffe: Tigers put up some fight for awhile but didn’t have enough pitching

1:34	Jay Jaffe: (though the future for Detroit is bright in that department)

1:35	Tony Wolfe: Sure, but the Twins also had a pretty good lineup, usually 60 games only gets you to the Super 2 deadline, which is when someone like Kiriloff would be expected to show up

1:35	Tony Wolfe: *pretty good outfield, I meant

1:36

bighen: how does tender/non-tender work if a team wants to offer a guy a lower salary? Like Steven Matz for the Mets was supposed to make $5M this year and they have to decide what to do with him. Can they offer him $3M for 2021 or does it automatically go to arb ? like i think they should try to keep him at a lower price point but not at $6-7 M etc.

1:36	Guest: Did the Fangraphs staff make picks for the post-season?

1:36	Dan Szymborski: We did!

1:37	Jay Jaffe: The maximum you can offer a guy is a 20% pay cut. if you want to go lower than that, you need to nontender

1:37	Dan Szymborski: Which I can’t find now, helpfully.

1:37	Jay Jaffe: That’s based on full season salaries, btw. So the Mets have to offer Matz $4 mil

1:38	Jay Jaffe: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/heres-who-is-going-to-win-the-2020-world-s…

1:38	Jay Jaffe: those are the staff predix

1:39	Guest: Theoretically you could non-tender the player, then offer to re-sign him at the lower price, correct?

1:39	Jay Jaffe: yes

1:39	Dan Szymborski: Thanks Jay!

1:39	Dan Szymborski: Yup, teams do it all the time, but it’s risky because the player is now a free agent.

1:40	Cat Latos: Amyone else noticing the green screen halo effect around the pitcher for reds/braves? Have we gone back in time to 1997?

1:40	Jay Jaffe: They’re pitching on a back lot, with Stanley Kubrick directing. the rest is CGI

1:40	Dan Szymborski: I’d happily offer Matz 1/4 as as free agent.

1:40	Guest: I can deal with the green screen halo effect, as long as we don’t have to go back to low-def TV.

1:41	Highway61: Sorry if I’m late to the party on this. But should strength of opponents weigh more heavily this year in awards? Bieber’s great but he did pitch half his games against PIT, KC, DET and MIL.

1:41	Jay Jaffe: yeah. and if the Cohen Mets think they need to to worry about the difference between 1/$3M and 1/$4M, then they might as well sell back to the Wilpons

1:41	Dan Szymborski: As weak as the division is, there’s only so much you’re going to take out of Bieber’s stats. It’s the difference between playing .480 and .520 teams on average, not playing the Dodgers vs. the Rangers on average

1:42	Guest: Doesn’t it seem like getting interviewed during a game as a manager would be distracting? Dusty is one of the few I’ve heard that doesn’t give stock answers to get it overwith.

1:42	Jay Jaffe: I keep waiting for Dusty to talk about smoking weed with Jimi Hendrix in one of these in-game interviews.

1:42	Dan Szymborski: Bieber had five starts against the White Sox and Twins, after all.

1:42	Fan: Couldn’t the team and player agree to a 1 year deal before formally offering a number?

1:42	Dan Szymborski: No.

1:42

Dan Szymborski: A Club may not tender, sign or renew a Player under reserve to the Club pursuant to Article XX(A) of this Agreement and paragraph 10(a) of the Uniform Player’s Contract to a Uniform Player’s Contract that provides a salary for: 13 (a) Major League service that constitutes a reduction in excess of 20% of his salary for Major League service in the previous season or in excess of 30% of his salary for Major League service two seasons prior to the first season covered by the new contract; or

1:44	Curtis: As a long-time Mariner fan, I hope the Twins can end the 17 game streak…I don’t even care if they win the series…

1:44	Jay Jaffe: it’s so improbable. Those have been some very good teams

1:45	Jay Jaffe: but jeez, I still can’t believe that Polanco error yesterday

1:45	Guest: So the Dodgers got 13 picks from the Fangraphs staff for winning the World Series. Would they be the first team to ever do so without having a single pitcher pitch a qualifying number of innings?

1:45	Dan Szymborski: 2017 Astros

1:45	Jay Jaffe: and their innings leader (Mike Fiers) was left off the postseason roster

1:46	Jay Jaffe: which of course was one reason he came forward regarding the sign-stealing stuff

1:46	TJ177: I like how in non-NYY games A-Rod’s commentary sounds like a youth baseball coach supervising an inter squad scrimmage. Just finds something complementary about every play and makes sure to point out a better way to do each activity

1:47	5 Run Homer: Watching the same five ads every ten minutes on MLB.tv is going to kill me

1:47	Jay Jaffe: I find A-Rod in the booth to be completely inane.

1:47	Dan Szymborski: “Five seconds of silence, I better string some words that sound vaguely baseball-related together!”

1:47	Jay Jaffe: and I was definitely feeling what 5 Run Homer felt re MLB.tv ads this past weekend while following along for Team Entropy. Wanted to put the AT&T r-rolling gal on a rocket into the sun

1:48	Dan Szymborski: Lots and Lots of Oscar Pistorius documentary ads yesterday

1:48	Guest: Silence can be golden. Ask Vin Scully.

1:48	Guest: A-Rod’s commentary might be inane, but I find him inane in a pleasant, inoffensive way; he doesn’t annoy me in the same way other announcers do.

1:49	Dan Szymborski: He certainly annoys me!

1:49	Jay Jaffe: I generally agree. I won’t name names because i bump into some of those guys in my occasional TV opportunities.

1:49	Dan Szymborski: He’s pleasant, but some of the things he says are just preposterous.

1:49	Tony Wolfe: please stop showing us bauer’s feet

1:49	Dan Szymborski: And they’re just random out of nowhere. Like at the start of the season when asked for deep sleepers and he chose the Braves and Astros.

1:50	Jay Jaffe: LOL

1:50	rkdi21: did you see that graphic? kiriloff is 3rd guy to make debut in playoffs. mondesi was 2nd. never heard of the first guy who ended up never playing in a regular season game..https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mark-kiger/4632/stats?position=1B

1:50	Dan Szymborski: This is the first debut to start.

1:50	Jay Jaffe: My heart aches when I see Mark Kiger’s B-Ref page, knowing he didn’t get to play in a regular season major league game

1:51	Jay Jaffe: I saw somewhere that there are a small handful of guys on rosters who would be making their debuts

1:51	Dan Szymborski: And the thing about Kiger is that he actually played well enough that he should’ve gotten at least an espresso shot in the majors.

1:52	Dan Szymborski: A .264/.372/.374 minor leaguer who played every position but catcher and pitcher should get at least a handful of appearances.

1:52	Dan Szymborski: Now, he probably would have probably hit like .210/.300/.300 in the majors, but lots and lots of worse role players got a lot more playing time.

1:53	Jay Jaffe: it certainly didn’t help that he was released by the A’s a couple months after that postseason debut

1:53	Nick: Watching on a Canadian VPN, shoutouts to no political ads.

1:53	Ben: Chances that neutral-site WS becomes a permanent thing?

1:53	Dan Szymborski: Fairly good. Not sure how I feel about it.

1:53	Jay Jaffe: ugh plz no

1:54	Guest: Is there a schedule of which games have the statcast booth?

1:54	Jay Jaffe: Mike Petriello @mike_petriello @pink_mike @jasonbenetti @KP_Omaha we’re doing a ‘red zone’ kind of thing watching every game together .. ESPN+, 1pm ET today and tomorrow. then maybe a regular game Friday night, TBD which one. 30 Sep 2020

1:54

TJ177: Gotta be honest- I’m definitely against the expanded playoffs but on a day like today when we’ve got our first real fall-like weather outside and I’m already stuck working from home anyway … it’s really hitting the spot. It feels Octobery in a lower stakes pleasantish way. Way more than I would have thought.

1:54	Dan Szymborski: Four games would have hit the spot too and they would’ve been spaced a bit better so you could watch most of ’em!

1:54

Guest: What could/should MLB do about the announcers in its marquee games, do you think? It’s a fine line because we don’t want MLB dictating journalistic coverage, but at the same time having Smoltz complain about today’s game and A-rod compare every athletic player to a football player can’t be good for the brand/game, right?

1:55	Dan Szymborski: My hope is in the way cutting edge analysis 20 years ago is normal analysis today, cutting edge broadcasts like the statcast thing now will be the norm in 20 years.

1:55	Max: why did Kiger make the playoff roster? he didn’t have a lot of steals. were people hurt?

1:56	Jay Jaffe: Mark Ellis got hurt during the Division Series

1:56	Jay Jaffe: broke a finger i think

1:56	Dan Szymborski: I don’t need to be a 70 year-old man listening to a 73-year-old A-Rod going on about how the robot umpires have larger strike zones when teams lead by a prime number.

1:57	JJ: A-Rod dropping “to me, the most important stat is RBIs, followed by runs” made every boomer’s heart soar with joy

1:57	Jay Jaffe: even-numbered leads, man

1:57	Guest: but MLB can’t actually “do” anything about the broadcasts, can they? Could they / should they tell networks “hey we have to approve the announcing team for the world series”

1:57	Dan Szymborski: I don’t think MLB particularly cares unless it impacts $.

1:57	Nick: A-Rod should do a Mr. 3000 comeback to get 700 home runs. Would get him out of the booth, at least.

1:57	Tony Wolfe: Or Jeter could stop being a coward and make him GM of the marlins

1:57	Jay Jaffe: and push his HOF eligibility back a few years

1:58	JJ: Holy cow Devin Williams is out for the Brewers WC round

1:58	Tony Wolfe: oh no!

1:59	Dan Szymborski: oh oh

1:59	Dan Szymborski: Better go update the projections now that the Brewers pen gets a demerit

1:59	Jay Jaffe: whoa

2:00	Jay Jaffe: ugh, that sucks. Only saw bits and pieces of his work this year

2:00	Guest: Speaking of debuts, who are your picks for ROY?

2:01	Jay Jaffe: I’d have gone with Kyle Lewis and Jake Cronenworth if I had a ballot (David Laurila does)

2:01	Jay Jaffe: given Luis Robert’s late-season fade, I think there’s a reasonable chance that both will win

2:02	Tony Wolfe: Lewis and Gonsolin, probably

2:03	Jay Jaffe: Gonsolin came up huge for the Dodgers

2:04	Jay Jaffe: Unless they go to an opener or something (hardly out of the question) they could start 5 homegrown pitchers in this postseason

2:05	Jay Jaffe: Kershaw, Buehler, Urias, and May being the others

2:04	Tony Wolfe: he was the best pitcher on the team! and they have a lot of good pitchers!

2:05	Dan Szymborski: It’s weird, the Reds/Braves game has just blown by but it’s still like a 2:50 pace.

2:07	Tony Wolfe: boy, can’t believe farmer actually beat that

2:08	Jay Jaffe: I can’t believe Kyle Farmer is starting at shortstop for the Reds given that he was like an extra catcher for the Dodgers during their 2017 postseason run

2:08	Dan Szymborski: I’m all for C-SS players.

2:09	Tony Wolfe: the lone player still on the roster from the Kemp/Puig/Wood trade

2:09	Jay Jaffe: how is Freddy Galvis not a better SS option

2:09	Dan Szymborski: What did I just see?

2:10	Guest: Little League play from the Reds!

2:10	Jay Jaffe: Dan, I have a 1978 Topps card of Ike Hampton (Angels), who had a big year at Salt Lake City in 1979, 30 homers or something. The text begins, “Combination catchers and shortstops are extremely rare…”

2:10	Dan Szymborski: I didn’t imagine the series of events?

2:10	Quadrangular: what are the Reds doing on the bases today?

2:10	Dan Szymborski: I miss reading the backs of baseball cards.

2:10	Dan Szymborski: I love these mid-80s Fleer (I think) in blue that had scouting reports and strike zone heat maps

2:10	Jay Jaffe: wow, that was after my time

2:11	Tony Wolfe: that almost looked like a “get picked off intentionally” play you do in little league, and it went…… poorly

2:11	Jay Jaffe: I think Topps 1983 was my last set

2:12	Jay Jaffe: Good lord, just seeing that play now

2:12	Guest: So is Aquino charged with a CS there?

2:13	Tony Wolfe: pretty sure, yes

2:13	Jay Jaffe: and we have a run! Astros have scored via Kyle Tucker driving in Michael Brantley

2:13	Jay Jaffe: only took about 3 hours of baseball between the two games to get the first one

2:14	Tony Wolfe: oh hell a third game just started didn’t it

2:14	Dan Szymborski:

2:14	Nick: Astros BABIP luck last two days proving karma doesn’t exist and we live in a cold uncsring universe.

2:14	Guest: ahem that’s DAN SZYMBORSKI ENDORSED Kyle Tucker to you!

2:15	TJ177: How long do you roll with Fried here?

2:15	Jay Jaffe: He’s only at 78 pitches but with the lineup turning over again, i think he’s out at the first sign of trouble

2:16	Dan Szymborski: I don’t always like young corner outfielders, but when I do, I like to go with Kyle Tucker, the Projectionist’s Choice.

2:16	Guest: Will undersized middle infielders, aka madrigal, get a reduction in expected power in projections thanks to Altuve’s recent season?

2:17	Dan Szymborski: Not really

2:17	Dan Szymborski: Remember, ZiPS is using HUGE cohorts.

2:17	Dan Szymborski: and is searching for near-age guys

2:17	Dan Szymborski: A few players here and there don’t have a big effect.

2:18	lmb2020: Which team would anger the online baseball community the most with a world series victory?

2:18	Jay Jaffe: Astros and it’s not even close

2:18	Highway61: I’m dumb and can’t remember stuff this year. They don’t have the ghost runner on 2nd to start extras in the playoffs do they?

2:18	Jay Jaffe: nope

2:18	Guest: the baseball card talk inspired me to go on ebay and buy a barry bonds hologram card I had in the 90s

2:19	Dan Szymborski: I’m still short Marty Bystrom to complete my 1986 Topps set.

2:19	Quadrangular: Which of the rule changes that were railroaded in this season will we regret the soonest?

2:19	Dan Szymborski: expanded playoffs if they stick!

2:19	Jay Jaffe: The worst for the future of the sport is the expanded playoffs

2:19	Dan Szymborski: They’re not even official past this season and I’m already angry about it!

2:19	Tony Wolfe: I got used to the extra innings modification remarkably fast

2:20	Tony Wolfe: but expanded playoffs would be the worst

2:20	Jay Jaffe: I don’t like the extra-innings rule but don’t hate it as much as I expected to. Don’t mind the doubleheader rule IF it is used to make them a regular thing AND give players more off days/better travel schedules in season

2:20	Dan Szymborski: If they agreed to freeze playoff spots at 10 until baseball has at least 36 teams, I’d happily take the extra-inning ghost runner.

2:21	Tommy: what is the feeling of a first round bye for top teams?

2:21	Jay Jaffe: it was working great from 2012-19

2:21	Dan Szymborski: As a fan, I don’t want to see great teams having great seasons.

2:21	Dan Szymborski: err

2:21	Dan Szymborski: I WANT to see great teams having great seasons.

2:22	Bb: Would a 7-inning no-hitter this year have been considered an official no-hitter?

2:22	Jay Jaffe: no

2:22	Guest: From a person who loves baseball but who primarily follows other sports, what are your specific objections against the expanded playoffs?

2:22	Jay Jaffe: sub-.500 teams making playoffs, lack of incentive for teams to improve beyond low-80s win projections, likelihood of best-of-3 series bumping off a powerhouse for no good reason

2:23	Dan Szymborski: Because baseball has a 162 game season and teams are close enough that larger playoff spots just make it a random mess.

2:23	Tony Wolfe: Ben Clemens gave a pretty thorough answer to that question here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/expanded-playoffs-discourage-greatness/

2:23	Jay Jaffe: yes

2:23	Dan Szymborski: 8 seeds only work in baseball because the NBA 8 seeds are almost always dead.

2:23	Dan Szymborski: But in baseball, you’d have 78-84 teams toppling 105-57 teams all the time

2:23	Tony Wolfe: Fried is out of the game for ATL. Martin in for the eighth

2:27	Jay Jaffe: Like the teams playing at the moment, Tony has experienced a power outage. he’s waiting for his wifi to come back

2:27	Quadrangular: Collectively, will we hold our deserved vitriol for the Astros long enough to actually heckle them in person, or will it dissipate before we get the chance?

2:29	Jay Jaffe: on the one hand, we have ample evidence that this country is driven by grievance these days. On the other hand, free agency will start to scatter these guys to the four winds. They re-signed Gurriel but I’d be surprised if Springer stayed, Reddick is a free agent too

2:29	Jay Jaffe: (so is Brantley but he wasn’t on the 2017 team)

2:29	Dan Szymborski: #8 seeds in the NBA are 82-254 against #1 seeds. And they’ve been playing best of seven first rounds for nearly 20 years.

2:30	Dan Szymborski: That’s why 8 seeds work in the NBA playoffs: when they win, it’s rare enough to be of historic note.

2:30	Tony Wolfe: SHOCKED I missed a 1-2-3 inning

2:32	Dan Szymborski: Seven seeds are 96-248 against #2 seeds

2:32	Guest: Should Bauer be left in to start the eighth?

2:32	Guest: (Brewers just became Szymborski fans with his comment about teams toppling juggernauts)

2:32	Tony Wolfe: Bell will pretty much ride Bauer as long as he can

2:32	Guest: When was the last playoff game that went into extras at 0-0?

2:33	druidiful: It’s pretty amazing how the Reds have gone from having negative pitching war over a full season a couple of seasons ago, to one of the best staffs in the playoffs.

2:33	Jay Jaffe: Has a lot to do with pitching coach Derek Johnson and the team’s embrace of analytics

2:33	Jay Jaffe: https://theathletic.com/1166326/2019/08/29/how-reds-pitching-coach-der…

2:35	Dan Szymborski: I thinK it’s this game.

2:35	Dan Szymborski: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL199710150.shtml

2:37	Jay Jaffe: whoops forgot to check the postseason button!

2:37	Guest: Do you guys think the Reds paid Brenaman a settlement just so he’d “resign” and go away quietly?

2:37	Dan Szymborski: I would imagine he had a morals clause.

2:38	Jay Jaffe: yeah don’t think so

2:38	Dan Szymborski: My contract with ESPN did. I can’t imagine his doesn’t.

2:38	Jay Jaffe: also good riddance

2:38	Jay Jaffe: i disliked his work long before he stepped in this one

2:39	Dan Szymborski: And it was fairly standard, it’s not that ESPN thought I was particularly awful and inserted something.

2:39	bb: What did he gain by quitting?

2:39	Jay Jaffe: Not being fired

2:39	Dan Szymborski: His best chance of having a career some time down the road is people having short memories.

2:40	Dan Szymborski: So the quicker he gets out of the public eye, the better it is for him personally.

2:40	Dan Szymborski: Pretty Awful Broadcaster is Pretty Awful Dude!

2:41	Jay Jaffe: He does football, too, and it wouldn’t surprise me if his comeback goes that route because the audience will be less aware of his transgression (though he did lose his most recent football job even before being suspended by Reds)

2:40	Long time listener: What I am trying to figure out is how is Carson Cistulli going to turn the series around for the Blue Jays?

2:40	Dan Szymborski: Necronomicon

2:41	Tony Wolfe: can’t wait for brennaman’s inevitable congressional run

2:41	Dan Szymborski: Oh! Neural network generated nicknames for these two rosters.

2:41	Dan Szymborski:

2:42	Jay Jaffe: LOLs galore

2:42	Dan Szymborski: The things I use GPT-3 for.

2:42	Bravos: All the people outside Truist Park not wearing masks isn’t helping my stress levels in this game

2:43	Jay Jaffe: ugh ugh ugh

2:43	Dan Szymborski: It’s even worse than the name of the park.

2:44	bb: Jay, ever listen to Jon Spencer’s old band Pussy Galore?

2:45	Jay Jaffe: oh hell yes. My Sugar** Sharp/Dial M for Mother**** disc is a favorite, though the rest of their catalog is a mixed bag for me (always thought Right Now was overrated, enjoy the Exile on Main St. cover, occasionally amused by the early offensive stuff)

2:44	Guest: would you rather be a fan of the twins with their playoff losing streak, or the mariners with not making the playoffs? I almost think Mariners, because you’d feel less let down

2:44	Dan Szymborski: Twins.

2:44	Dan Szymborski: A happy ending depends on where you stop the story.

2:45	Dan Szymborski: If the Twins are two-and-out at least it wasn’t the Yankees that did it.

2:45	v2micca: I know it shouldn’t, but If one of the NL MVP finalist has a torrid post-season, will it sway the voters? Or have they already submitted their ballots?

2:45	Dan Szymborski: Ballots are due final day of the season.

2:45	Jay Jaffe: Dan did you have a vote this year?

2:45	Dan Szymborski: Nothing for me this time around.

2:46	Dan Szymborski: Even with just 12 people in the chapter, you can’t get to vote every year.

2:46	Dan Szymborski: And the chapter head always gets to vote since they have a lot of extra work to do.

2:46	Jay Jaffe: Are you in the Cincy chapter?

2:46	Dan Szymborski: Yup

2:46	Dan Szymborski: I voted in 2016, 2018, 2019

2:46	Dan Szymborski: You got one this time, didn’t you?

2:46	Jay Jaffe: nope, and i probably won’t anytime soon

2:47	Jay Jaffe: NY chapter is deep

2:47	Dan Szymborski: Doh, I thought you had mentioned it.

2:47	Jay Jaffe: and it’s tough for me to get to the ballpark given parenting

2:47	Jay Jaffe: i get my HOF ballot this November

2:47	Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I knew you were rightly (and fairly) annoyed by it.

2:47	Dan Szymborski: I might be thinking of Laurila?

2:47	Jay Jaffe: yes he has AL ROY

2:48	Dan Szymborski: I’d like to get a tough vote. I haven’t had one with a real #1 conundrum yet.

2:48	Jay Jaffe: it would be nice to get an awards ballot, but I’m not lying awake at night complaining about not getting one

2:48	Dan Szymborski: I wasn’t that far from taking Soroka over Alonso, but it was still relatively easy.

2:48	Bravos: Is it more deflating to get beat soundly in game 1 such as the Indians or in a thriller such as the loser of Reds/Braves?

2:49	Jay Jaffe: Players will tell you that losing a close game hurts much more. Blowouts they just flush from memory pretty quickly

2:48	Dan Szymborski: Gives us a vote to keep us off the streets while we wait for Hall votes!

2:48	Guest: I believe they call it the “skyline chapter”

2:48	Dan Szymborski: Then I’m moving to Cleveland chapter!

2:49	Guest: Jay as someone who has invested a lot into the HOF, is getting your first ballot pretty meaningful for you? Or does it just seem like part of the job?

2:49	Jay Jaffe: I’m very excited. This is a milestone that goes beyond what it means for little old me

2:49	Jay Jaffe: Will write about it when the time comes

2:49	bb: What criteria would you use if you got the Manager of the Year vote?

2:50	Dan Szymborski: Not sure! Certainly a manger getting the most out of their roster.

2:50	v2micca: Yeah, I’m a die hard homer of Braves a fan, and even I think Alonzo over Soroka last year was an easy call.

2:50	Dan Szymborski: It wasn’t a slaughter or anything, but I think it was easy.

2:50	Dan Szymborski: Give Tatis 20-30 more games and I would have taken him.

2:50	Jay Jaffe: I’d look at preseason projections, bullpen usage, pythagorean, and stuff that can’t be captured stat-wise

2:51	Tony Wolfe: The manager award is hard because I would think the “got the most out of your roster” part would certainly go to Mattingly, but Mattingly also allowed his team to take the field knowing they were COVID-compromised this year

2:51	Jay Jaffe: (and probably other stuff too)

2:51	Jay Jaffe: yes, tony

2:51	Tony Wolfe: Which is arguably the most important part of the job in 2020

2:51	Grant: Bauer shutting down ATL has erased the doubts I had about his relatively weak opponents schedule this year

2:51	Jay Jaffe: it’s entirely possible that he was helped by the easy slate AND that he’s a damn good pitcher

2:51	Jay Jaffe: who had a VERY good day

2:52	DD: Is gavin lux a bust? What could the dodgers realistically get for him

2:53	Jay Jaffe: A bit early to call somebody a bust under the circumstances of this year, which for him included COVID-19

2:53	Dan Szymborski: 3-13 when not hitting a HR is interesting, but everyone is HR dependent. Teams went 180-386 when they didn’t hit a homer.

2:54	Dan Szymborski: It’s mean to be too hard to Vasgersian when he just had to record my last name for MLB the Show.

2:54	Jay Jaffe: Is this threaded response feature new? it’s invaluable for these group chats where questions and answers often get separated

2:54	Dan Szymborski: I think it’s always been there

2:54	Dan Szymborski: I also allow emoji in my chats!

2:54	Magic Kingdome: For current and future HOF voters, would you ever vote for a guy for a special reason* where you were not voting for 10 deserving candidates anyway? *Could be you liked the guy, could be a trailblazer, could be for any reason you like.

2:56	Jay Jaffe: Probably not, but I wouldn’t close the door on it.

2:54	Dan Szymborski: Not I.

2:54	Dan Szymborski: Not voting on anything other than what the rules outline.

2:55	Josh R: I assume you already heard the news that Devin Williams is not on the Brewers roster? Wow!

2:55	Dan Szymborski: Already demoted the Brewers bullpen in the projections!

2:55	Dan Szymborski: Jay probably has the right idea – I should probably use it more when we have multi-person chats.

2:56	Dan Szymborski: (In-line replies)

2:56	Guest: Wait why did Vasgergian record your name for The Show?

2:57	Dan Szymborski: My last name was added to the MLB the Show master audio list.

2:57	Jay Jaffe: I think they were referring to the guy from the soap opera, not you

2:57	Jay Jaffe: the other Dan Szymborski!

2:57	Guest: wow, “Hollywood” Dan between being in MLB The Show and the Young and the Restless!

2:58	Tony Wolfe: As Iglesias pitched the Reds and Braves into extras, the Twins have something brewing (again) against Raley w/ two on, one out in fifth

2:58	Dan Szymborski: THAT tickled me quite a bit. Someone with the last name “Szymborski” doesn’t get a lot of characters in media with their last name.

2:59	Jay Jaffe: Robert Guillaume’s character on Sports Night was Isaac Jaffe, same as one of my great grandfathers

3:00	Jay Jaffe: and there was a movie called I Heart Huckabees where Dustin Hoffman played Bernard Jaffe, same name as my paternal grandfather (Isaac’s son)

3:00	Dan Szymborski: https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/85cd9067-8c4f-4907-b459-6e0dac45e99c

3:00	Jay Jaffe: oh yes

3:00	Jay Jaffe: Marwin thrown out at the plate for the 3rd out after the Twins tie it

3:01	Dan Szymborski: “Jaffe spit out that gum!”

3:01	Tony Wolfe: Twins have a run!

3:01	Tony Wolfe: I am…..so jealous

3:01	Guest: What is the postseason record for most Ks by a losing pitching staff? And might the Reds set it here?

3:01	Dan Szymborski: I think that I can find!

3:01	Jay Jaffe: FanGraphs has yet to score a run this afternoon

3:01	Dan Szymborski: Sounds like me in high school! <ba dum dum>

3:02	John: What a throw by Correa and even better tag by Maldonado

3:05	Jay Jaffe: Maldonado had to go a long way to make that tag!

3:02	Dan Szymborski: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE199610050.shtml

3:03	v2micca: The Braves are swinging an missing way to much to be a serious threat to anyone this post-season.

3:03	Dan Szymborski: The Indians struck out 23 batters in a 12-inning loss.

3:03	Jay Jaffe: holy hell

3:03	Tony Wolfe: The Braves actually only struck out 10th-most in baseball this year. That’s not a huge concern for them

3:03	Dan Szymborski: For a game in regulation.

3:03	Dan Szymborski: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE201710110.shtml

3:03	Jay Jaffe: there’s this https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE199710110.shtml

3:03	Jay Jaffe: which would have been my guess

3:04	Dan Szymborski: Ians struck out 15 and lost in that second link.

3:04	5 Run Homer: It’s nuts to me that the Dodgers’ Will Smith was born in 1995, which means his parents have their baby the same name as a huge actor

3:05	Guest: I feel like the only way the Reds are going to score is on a dinger. They have a lot of guys who can run into one, but the longer this goes it feels like it favors the Braves.

3:05	Guest: On the other end of things, I have a relatively uncommon name that was coincidentally used as the name of a serial killer on Law and Order SVU, so that’s the first thing that pops up when someone is trying to google me. It’s… less than ideal.

3:06	Dan Szymborski: You can always change your name!

3:06	Dan Szymborski:

3:06	Tony Wolfe: letting Farmer hit there was not a decision I would have made

3:06	Jay Jaffe: Tyler Kepner @TylerKepner So this Braves/Reds game is the first in the postseason to be scoreless through 9 since Game 6 of the 1997 ALCS — immortalized on the very first color @nytimes the next day. (Note the #1 on Fernandez. Nice touch.) 30 Sep 2020

3:07	Dan Szymborski: Most strikeouts in a win.

3:07	Dan Szymborski: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/WAS/WAS201410040.shtml

3:08	Guest: Bad news everyone, Milwaukee’s Racing Sausages have been banned from Miller Park’s voting site because of concerns that they’re engaging in electioneering (seriously)

3:08	Jay Jaffe: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/investigations/daniel-bice/2020/09…

3:09	Jay Jaffe: the Republicans are not only doing everything they can to suppress the vote, they’re doing misdirection by trying to get mascots banned from the sites. Cool, cool

3:09	v2micca: As much as it will hurt, I’m just going to laugh if the Braves get completely shut down by their former cast-off in Lucas Sims.

3:09	Tony Wolfe: hey, the guy they traded him for started for them this game. not a bad trade-off

3:09	Guest: Was actor Will Smith not famous when the Braves reliever was born?

3:10	Jay Jaffe: oh he was. Fresh Prince of Bel Air ran 1990-96

3:11	bb: Don’t forget his pre-Fresh Prince music career

3:11	Jay Jaffe:

3:11	Dan Szymborski: Where is DJ Jazzy Jeff?

3:12	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: More likely that the parents of Will Smith (ATL) were not aware of the freshest prince: Birthdate: 7/10/1989 (31 y, 2 m, 20 d)

3:12	Fresh Prince: They filmed a Fresh Prince reunion and BOTH Aunt Vivs are there.

3:12	Baseball: Does nobody else see Bauer’s unprecedented spin increase as a concern? Is this not impossible? He’s clearly doing something a bit more effective than bullfrog

3:13	Dan Szymborski: I only know what I can prove.

3:13	v2micca: I guess it was appropriate that Sims started the inning facing a former Reds cast-off in Duvall. Some symmetry there.

3:13	Dan Szymborski:

3:15	Jay Jaffe: OK i have retrieved the iPad and now have Marlins-Cubs up as well as the Reds and Twins games

3:15	Dan Szymborski: I like Vasgersian trying to break A-Rod’s sepia-toned preferences.

3:15	Jay Jaffe: Three games! Two runs! And now the 4-year-old is home!

3:15	Dan Szymborski: She’d be more fun in the booth with Vasgersian!

3:16	Giodude: The discussion re: bunting on ESPN right now is insufferable.

3:16	5 Run Homer: A while ago my girlfriend showed me some sleek produced wedding video on YouTube because she was really interested in them, and lo and behold, the groom in the video was Lucas Sims

3:16	Dan Szymborski: Dear A-Rod, Chipper Jones didn’t bunt the last 13 years in his career.

3:16	Jay Jaffe: the great thing about having so many games on is that it’s a perfect excuse to mute all of them

3:16	Tommy: Bunting is my favorite topic of conversation in the 10th inning of a playoff game.

3:17	5 Run Homer: The cutout of the security guard behind home is really weird

3:17	Dan Szymborski: They should’ve sprinkled in some cardboard cutouts of celebrities. Then they could take about the cardboard celebrity sightings instead of the game.

3:17	Bohm: bring up carlton fisk to get arod of the scent

3:18	John: Hadn’t heard the boog chipper combo before but they are pretty solid

3:18	Jay Jaffe: Big Boog fan here

3:18	Guest: A-Rod only sac bunted 16 times in his 22 year career. None after 1999.

3:18	5 Run Homer: Who are the famous braves fans?

3:18	Dan Szymborski: With cardboard cutouts, you can put in whoever you want!

3:19	Dan Szymborski: Everyone in my neighborhood does elaborate Christmas decorations.

3:19	Dan Szymborski: I’m thinking of just getting 10 Danny Devito cardboard cutouts.

3:19	Appa Yip Yip: Broadcasters are all in the pocket of Big Bunting

3:19	Tony Wolfe: Sims gets out of it. We’ll play 11

3:19	Nick: maybe a hot take: umpires deserve to be yelled out when they blow big strike calls in a playoff game. And especially when they eject players for displaying frustration.

3:20	Dan Szymborski: If we can’t have robot umps, I’d be in favor of a mechanism connected to statcast that launches pies at the home plate umpire.

3:20	Curtis: Any idea why scoring is at such a premium today?

3:20	Tony Wolfe: because no one is bunting

3:21	Dan Szymborski: If you call a strike or a ball in a location called a strike or a ball less than 2% of the time, a pie gets launched at you. And the pies get worse over teh course of the game.

3:21	Bravos: Maybe this game will last long enough so that Fried and Bauer get enough rest and they can come back in

3:22	Nick: And the pies aren’t made by a grandma, they’re from Perkins.

3:22	Guest: Re: scoring: were there any weird shadows at play, at least early in the Reds-Braves game? Noon Eastern is probably the earliest MLB has ever started a playoff game.

3:22	Tony Wolfe: Nah, they stopped in mid-center iirc

3:22	Dan Szymborski: No, you’re not allowed permission

3:22	Dan Szymborski: (A-Rod)

3:23	Dan Szymborski: A-ROD, HANK AARON HAD 3 SACRIFICE BUNTS IN THE FINAL 20 YEARS OF HIS CAREER

3:24	Guest: A-Rod, master of strategy, just ask him about Connect-4!

3:24	Dan Szymborski: “You don’t want to get two in a row because then an opponent knows you plan to get three in a row.”

3:24	Tony Wolfe: Darren O’Day is like 52 years old and he struck out 12 per nine this year

3:25	lmb2020: First offense? A light banana cream pie. Second? A dense pecan pie. Sixth? Hot shephard’s pie

3:25	Dan Szymborski: The tenth pie has rocks in it.

3:25	Guest: “for me, I’d rather have zero in a row than three in a row because then the board is open with all possibilities”

3:26	John: the 11th has spaghetti and bean chili

3:26	Guest: Did the Reds just remove Castellanos for Akiyama because they want to do worse offensively than they have been?

3:26	Tony Wolfe: Akiyama is batting for Senzel

3:28	Guest: I haven’t heard anything about Bartman. Do you think there’d be more reminiscing about it because of Cubs-Marlins in a “normal” postseason where the games have more time to breathe on their own, or are people just no longer interested in Bartman?

3:28	Jay Jaffe: I think 2016 brought some closure on that one

3:29	Jay Jaffe: home run Carlos Correa

3:29	Tony Wolfe: Correa dinger. 2-1 Astros in the seventh

3:29	Guest: Do sidearm pitchers have typical platoon splits?

3:29	Dan Szymborski: Usually more significant splits

3:30	King Gizzard: You do not know the frustration of being a Twins fan.

3:30	King Gizzard: It’s a car crash you can see coming from a mile away

3:31	Jay Jaffe: Jay Jaffe @jay_jaffe it’s as dumb as the guy who signed contracts of $252 million and $275 million talking favorably about a salary cap Mo Egger@MoEgger1530 For a guy who hit close to 700 home runs, A-Rod sure likes talking about bunting a lot. 30 Sep 2020

3:32	Guest: Reds were 7th in HRs but 27th in Runs this year; time for Suarez to run into one and bring this game to a close.

3:33	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: All this talk of pie and chili makes me want to throw together a Skyline Chili Pot Pie. Once the crust is golden brown, top it with some creamy refried beans and let it crust over. Yummm.

3:33	Dan Szymborski: IP BAN

3:34	Dan Szymborski: “Advantage: O’Day”

3:35	Guest: “In chess, I like to lose all my pawns immediately, get them off the board to just focus on the important pieces.” -A-rod

3:35	Bravos: That walk of Votto feels like it was dumb. Hindsight is 20/20 and all but it’s not like he’s been hitting the ball hard today, or even this season

3:36

Guest: Mike Kiger came up earlier in the chat, and I finally found an update on what happened to him. Describing life after his playing career, he said: ““Nobody took a chance on me but myself. I fought my way back from homelessness, the depths of depression, and self-medicating the pain of my divorce and the pain of not playing baseball anymore to the pinnacle of where I’m at now, and my bright future as a professional baseball coach.” https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/2017/08/08/tabitha-s…

3:37	Jay Jaffe: wow, had forgotten the details on him, but Tabitha Soren’s post-Moneyball project was pretty cool

3:36	Dusty: Duh–pawns clog up the chess board like runners clogging up bases.

3:38	Dan Szymborski: Well that was anti-climactic

3:38	Tommy: Is being a broadcaster a hard job?

3:38	Dan Szymborski: It is! I would not be a good one.

3:38	Guest: “for blackjack, I always hit on 20. Matty, you might bust sometimes but you just never know what that dealer has”

3:39	Dan Szymborski: “Bet heavily when you draw 7-2. Sometimes you’ll get two pair on the flop and nobody will have any idea!”

3:39	Bravos: Elite reliever Tyler Matzek, just like everyone predicted

3:39	David K: Trying to watch the Braves/Reds game but Arod is killing me and got me thinking If Cohen isn’t approved and Arod becomes the Mets owner I might take a few years off from baseball, Arod is such a buffoon

3:39	Dan Szymborski: It would get A-Rod off the broadcast!

3:40	v2micca: Top of their line-up vs the third guy out of the Red’s bullpen. If the Braves can’t break through here…..

3:41	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: ARod becomes owner of the Mets, installs himself as the color guy on every home broadcast

3:41	Morbo: Dan Szymborski: Answer:”It would get A-Rod off the broadcast!” “What is the number one reason I hoped he would succeed in buying the Mets, Alex?”

3:43	Dan Szymborski: That anecdote went absolutely nowhere.

3:43	Dan Szymborski: “I’m going spend two minutes telling this story and the moral is if you think small, big things can happen.”

3:43	Dan Szymborski: Think small kids and you can achieve your limited dreams!

3:44	Colin: Real surprised not Garrett with Freeman up this inning

3:44	Guest: Whose remaining bullpen options do you like more in Reds-Braves?

3:44	Jay Jaffe: Reds still have Bradley and Garrett

3:44	Tony Wolfe: Reds but I like the Braves’ offense more

3:45	Guest: Dan that sounded dangerously close to a child trafficking lol

3:45	Guest: Ok, ARod isn’t great, but that’s really not terrible advice. Well-received adages like “the journey of a 1000 miles begins with a single step” are essentially communicating the same message.

3:45	Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but he’s talking about postseason play. Big things win postseason games.

3:46	Jay Jaffe: Ian Happ homer puts Cubs on top 1-0 in 5th

3:47	Morbo: Jay, for some reason your profile photo always reminds me of Jack Nicholson in a baseball hat

3:48	Jay Jaffe: haha thanks. Taken during last spring’s FanGraphs outing, the day we went to … some college game about an hour outside of Phoenix. Damned if I can remember who

3:48	Colin: Maybe Bell is thinking of using Lorenzen as a long man now unless he gets into trouble. He can go several innings.

3:48	Tony Wolfe: That’s my guess

3:48	Peter: 4 concurrent games…exciting! 5 concurrent games…overwhelming

3:49	Jay Jaffe: 4 is overwhelming. Even 3 i’m missing a whole lot of what’s happening

3:49	King Gizzard: Once again the Twins offense withers on the vine in the playoffs. People talk about their pitching not being up to snuff, but since 2003, they have been losing these 2-1 games every damn year.

3:50	Jay Jaffe: Hey, don’t forget their defense crapping out

3:51	King Gizzard: That Polanco play yesterday was the most 2020 moment yet.

3:51	Guest: the twins losing streak almost surely is just weird random variance, right? it’s been through different GMs, players, coaches, etc.

3:52	Tony Wolfe: suicide squeeze, cowards

3:53

Jay Jaffe: Yes. Attaching it to some kind of character flaw of the players or organizational shortcoming of the front office is a bit of a stretch, at least aside from the 2000s f/o’s resistance to power pitching. It’s just a bunch of things going wrong, year after year after year, somewhat improbably

3:54	Jay Jaffe: Marcus Semien homer, A’s 4-0.

3:54	Dan Szymborski: “Nobody’s hitting it up there, not Pete Rose, not Tony Perez, n…..” <10 seconds of awkward silence as A-Rod runs out of Reds players he remembers>

3:54	Nick: Four concurrent games? Easy.

3:54	Quadrangular: every time I check in to the ATL-CIN game I see Kyle Farmer in a big spot… what on earth…

3:55	Jay Jaffe: I just pulled up the ESPN+ Statcast broadcast, which has 4-up

3:56	Dan Szymborski: Oooh, one of those fancy pantsed laptops with the mini screen on the base!

3:57	Dan Szymborski: That a Zenbook pro duo?

3:57	David K: Arod signaling for the suicide squeeze not clear for the Reds or the viewers

3:57	Nick: Highly recommended next time you upgrade! The lower keyboard is easier to adjust to than you think. It’s the Asus Zenbook Duo.

3:58	Morbo: ugh i have to go do my job instead of watch the reds atlanta game

3:58	Jay Jaffe: don’t worry, it will still be here when you get off work in 8 hours

3:58	Dan Szymborski: It’s sweet, but I don’t have a huge use for laptops that powerful. Since I’m home so much, I can just soup up my desktops!

3:58	Guest: Are laptops wearing pants now? Mine didn’t come with any, but I guess it can borrow the ones I haven’t worn since COVID first started me working from home.

3:59	Dan Szymborski: I’m proud of this reference.

3:59	Dan Szymborski: Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski FARMER REFUTED 30 Sep 2020

4:01	Nick: Wow Reds

4:01	Guest: As a Reds fan watching this game, I almost liked it better when the Reds didn’t make the playoffs.

4:03	Tony Wolfe: would anyone like to discuss nfl standings

4:03	Guest: Eppler already lost his job; how many more GM/Manager firings do you think we’ll see this off-season? Is Klentak in particular a likely choice to depart?

4:03	Dan Szymborski: I think they’re goign to keep Klentak

4:04	Dan Szymborski: It’s such a weird, short season I don’t think we’ll have a GM or manager bloodbath

4:04	Dan Szymborski: Roenicke was always going to be gone sooner or later

4:04	Guest2: Do you anticipate down-slate problems for the Reds/Braves as a result of the pitchers being spent here?

4:04	David: If the Phillies keep Klentak, the whole city of Philadelphia will burn down. They aren’t keeping Klentak

4:04	Tony Wolfe: Both pens are actually pretty deep. They’ll be fine.

4:04	Jay Jaffe: and nobody’s gone more than 4 outs

4:05	Jay Jaffe: Matzek 24 pitches, Sims 20, everybody else under 20

4:05	Tony Wolfe: I’d be more concerned about Houston’s pen if they don’t finish things today

4:06	Jay Jaffe: oh good, a 5th game starting

4:08	Jay Jaffe: if I was the Twins, Braves, or Reds I would simply score runs and not lose games. Can’t believe they’ve overlooked that as a strategy.

4:09	King Gizzard: Eddie Rosario was thrown out of the game earlier for complaining about a called strike that was CLEARLY a ball. Robot Umpires cannot come soon enough.

4:09	bb: Yeah, five games at once is like when your two favorite bands play different stages at a festival at the same time.

4:09	Belli Flop: Will this chat be continuing for the (very) late Brewers-Dodgers game?

4:09	Dan Szymborski: No, just a day thing. With eight games, we have a lot of gamers to write!

4:09	Jay Jaffe: that one starts in 6 hours

4:10	Jay Jaffe: Buxton gets picked off with Sano at the plate. Bye, Felicia.

4:10	King Gizzard: I take it back. Byron Buxton getting picked off in the 8th inning is the most 2020 moment yet.

4:11	Jay Jaffe: I’m so sorry.

4:11	Jay Jaffe: Let’s contract the expanded playoffs. Lose and you’re not only eliminated from 2020 contention, you sit out 2021, too

4:12	King Gizzard: I’d cry, but I’m all out of tears.

4:12	Nick: Lol Twins. Earning the misery at this point.

4:12	Jay Jaffe: Braves have a runner (Albies) in scoring position with Swanson at the plate and 2 outs

4:13	Jay Jaffe: and Swanson strikes out

4:14	Jay Jaffe: Corey Dickerson 3-run homer for the Marlins, bang

4:16	Bravos: What if we just call this one a tie? Away team has to win 2, home team just needs 1/2? That fair Reds fans?

4:16	Dan Szymborski: Ties should be losses for both.

4:16	Dan Szymborski: Game 2 is the Game 3!

4:18	Curtis: Earl Weaver lives in the form of the Marlins…

4:18	Dan Szymborski: Boo!

4:18	Dan Szymborski: Leave Earl alone!

4:19	David K: Over or under 75% chance that Cohen is approved?

4:19	Dan Szymborski: Over

4:19	Quadrangular: MARLINS WILL SOAR

4:19	Eel Ffilc: Rich Waltz is calling the Jays/Rays, nice. I used to watch Marlins games because of him

4:21	Jay Jaffe: And the Astros have scored another run, 3-1 top 9

4:22	5 Run Homer: Four singles off Ryu in the first inning

4:22	Jay Jaffe: not going great for the Blue Jays

4:22	Dan Szymborski: And Astros still have dudes on the bags.

4:22	Jeff: This Reds/Braves game is one of the worst game I’ve seen and I’ve watched 35 years of Mets baseball.

4:22	Jay Jaffe: Aguilar 2-run homer for the Marlins, 5-1

4:23	Dan Szymborski: People think 0-0 games are all legendary pitcher duels.

4:23	Dan Szymborski: Sometimes, 0-0 games are just sloppy crap factories.

4:23	Kwah: Adam Duvall has 4 Ks and taken one walk. Is this the gold-plated sombrero?

4:23	Jay Jaffe: wars of attrition

4:23	Dan Szymborski: I think it’s full gold

4:24	Dan Szymborski: hat trick, golden sombrero, platinum sombrero, titanium sombrero

4:24	Dan Szymborski: I save rhodium sombrero for seven, but that’s just me.

4:25	5 Run Homer: Bo just threw away the third out, bases loaded in Tampa

4:25	Eel Ffilc: And then adamantium sombrero

4:25	Quadrangular: definitely feels to me like the Jays are here a year early. On the other side, the Cubs and Cleveland’s windows are closing soon

4:26	Dan Szymborski: yeah, this is nearly their last hurrash

4:26	Tony Wolfe: Jays still have a lot to figure out in their rotation, but the lineup really looks ready

4:26	Dan Szymborski: hurrahs

4:26	John: Passed ball, runners at 2/3B none out for Houston

4:28	Jay Jaffe: Khris Davis homer, 5-0 A’s

4:28	John: Kirilloff looking good preventing the runner at third from tagging

4:28	Tony Wolfe: good to see moose force Minter use a lot of pitches, hoping to get to that braves bullpen early

4:29	Jay Jaffe: And then Bregman out in a rundown between 3B and home. Twins one out away from going to the bottom of the ninth down two runs… which…

4:29	Quadrangular: meanwhile, the Marlins…. are doing their Marlins thing I guess

4:30	Jay Jaffe: ok, despite the lack of closure on either of the early games, I’m getting the eye from the pitching coach here.

4:30	Jay Jaffe: Great to chat with you folks, enjoy the rest of the baseball!

4:31	Tony Wolfe: Thanks for hanging out, Jay. Enjoy the rest of the week!

4:32	Grant: Nothing says playoff baseball like baserunning mistakes and throwing errors

4:32	Guest: How did all these professionals all collectively decide to forget how to run bases the same day

4:32	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: TBS ignoring that Shane Baz was also part of the return in the Archer trade, which makes it that much worse for PIT.

4:33	Dan Szymborski: Big Aquino whiff there.

4:34	Dan Szymborski: bases loaded and two out

4:35	Dan Szymborski: A-Rod letting us know what a bases loaded situation is.

4:36	RW: The fans on their feet to applaud the effort from the Braves pitchers here today folks!

4:37	5 Run Homer: Why is Joe Panik here

4:37	Bunk: I heard Tim Kurkjian saying he thinks the baserunning now is the worst it’s been since he’s been covering baseball. What are your thoughts?

4:37	Dan Szymborski: There’s always been a lot of bad baserunning.

4:38	Dan Szymborski: At least there are fewer awful basestealers making a lot of attempts now

4:38	druidiful: That was probably a swing by Sano, but why don’t the empires always check with the first/thirdbase umpire on check swings?

4:38	Tony Wolfe: NOW there are shadows

4:38	Tony Wolfe: Good, thought the hitters had it too easy to this point

4:39	ChadT: Home plate ump in Minnesota must have dinner reservations based on that check-swing call on Sano.

4:39	King Gizzard: The Home Plate umpire in the Houston/Twins game is not having his greatest day. But I might be biased.

4:42	Tony Wolfe: Twins drop their 18th in a row. Houston is your first ALDS participant.

4:43	Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head out for press duties.

4:43	Dan Szymborski: Twins continue their consecutive losing streak.

4:44	Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining us for this surprisingly long chat! There will be more as the postseason advances.

4:44	Tony Wolfe: I will get to stepping as well. Thanks for your time, everyone!

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cartermember

3 years ago

That was some brutal coaching by the Reds. Why would you take Lorenzen out? He was looking great, and was stretched out to be a starter and the game could very well go many more innings. Then they take out Bradley to bring in Amir Garret for some reason? Why? Why wouldn’t you just walk Freeman and hope for a double play from Ozuna? Freeman has much better bat control, and is likely going to win the MVP this year. Ozuna is obviously very good as well, but I’d prefer a guy who strikes out more and hits into more double plays than a top 5 hitter in the game. Just bad all the way around. Freemans ops vs LHP be damned, just put him on. Garret also has to face 3 batters, just..bad.

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG