Winter Meetings Live Blog, Day 3 by Dave Cameron December 13, 2017 12:02 Dave Cameron: Welcome to the third day of the winter meetings, where the big news of the day is… Anthony Swarzak? Michael Pineda? Jake McGee? 12:02 Dave Cameron: To say it’s been dull so far would be the understatement of the year. 12:02 Dave Cameron: So let’s talk about what teams should be doing that they aren’t. 12:03 Bernie: Brewers fan so this may be silly, but would a Domingo Santana for Jackie Bradley Jr swap make sense for each side? Red Sox get RH power, Brewers get defensive flexibility. 12:03 Dave Cameron: Would make lots of sense for MIL, because Bradley > Santana, so they’d get the better player. Would make BOS worse. 12:04 Jim: What are the chances McCutchen is traded by the end of the week? 12:04 Dave Cameron: Not great. Think J.D. Martinez needs to sign first. 12:05 Dave Cameron: And it’s not entirely clear what Cutch’s market really is. Giants don’t seem that interested. Assuming BOS gets JDM, they’re out. STL focused elsewhere. 12:05 Rhendricks: Biggest move that happens today? 12:05 Dave Cameron: This Ozuna/STL trade feels like it’s been almost done for 24 hours. 12:06 Brian R: Besides the Yankees, (which is scary), what other teams have the systems and might make a legit run at Machado? 12:06 Dave Cameron: Most everyone has the system to trade for Machado. It’s a rental, so he isn’t going to cost so much that teams can’t make the trade for them; they’ll just choose not to. 12:07 Dave Cameron: Part of me wonders if the Brewers might try to sneak in here 12:07 Dave Cameron: Could shift Arcia to 2B for a year, play Machado at SS, and really make a run. 12:07 Magic 8 Ball: Surprised by what RPs are getting? What’s Reed going to demand? 12:08 Dave Cameron: Nah, these salaries are almost exactly what we projected heading into the winter. 12:08 Dave Cameron: The RP market has proven to be highly predictable. 12:08 Dave Cameron: Reed will get 3/$27M to 3/$33M, probably. 12:09 Erik: Should the Phillies be moderate buyers this offseason? They have basically no chance at a playoff spot this year, but don’t most teams have to have one season where they win about 80 games in between being terrible and making the playoffs? 12:09 Dave Cameron: No, there’s no ladder you have to climb. 12:09 Dave Cameron: If I was the Phillies, I’d be taking on all the dead money that’s out there to get guys who can help me now and in the future. 12:09 Dave Cameron: So take all the Marlins money to get Yelich. Take all the Royals money to get Duffy. That kind of thing. 12:10 steve: Would D.Santana, Burnes, and Erceg be enough for Archer? I feel like this would be enough but….your thoughts? 12:10 Dave Cameron: Nope. 12:10 Daniel: With Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy a year away from free agency, the Nationals are in a win now mode. If you were the GM of the Nat’s would you make the following 2 trades: 1) Michael A. Taylor, Erik Fedde, Carter Kieboom, and AJ cole for Marcel Ozuna 2) Joe Ross, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto for Chris Archer? 12:10 Dave Cameron: No. 12:10 John Beasley: Chatswood, Morrow, and Smyly seem risky even by pitchers’ standards. Do you like this series of moves for the Cubs? 12:11 Dave Cameron: The Mets have been betting on talent over health on the mound for a while now. 12:11 Dave Cameron: Err, the Cubs. 12:11 Dave Cameron: I like Morrow/Smyly, am meh on Chatwood. 12:11 Natsfan: I know the Phillies can always flip Nishek and Hunter for prospects, but do you think the team thinks it has a shot at contention this year? Pull a Brewers or a Twins and stay in contention much longer than anyone thought? 12:12 Dave Cameron: No, these are signings to help the team be less terrible in the first half and then be trade chips in July 12:12 Zonk: If the Pirates consider trading ‘Cutch, shouldn’t they push all-in on a rebuild and trade Cole as well? Can you squint and see a wildcard contender, or are they stuck in .500 purgatory without a series of moves? 12:12 Dave Cameron: I’d blow it up. 12:12 Dave Cameron: But yes, once they trade Cutch, no real reason to stop. 12:14 Roadhog: Can we hurry up with Piscotty to Oakland already? It’s all but happening, and I assume is just waiting for Cards to finalize Ozuna deal. 12:14 Dave Cameron: I’d guess they’ll just announce them together. 12:15 Kristaps: Yankees will likely add one more starter but rotation is pretty darn good as is. Really no need to overpay (years worry me most) for mid tier guys like Cobb or Lynn and i can’t imagine Arrieta being a focus of Cashman… money should be on CC returning yes? Thoughts? 12:15 Dave Cameron: I think they’re probably best served trading for one of the controllable guys out there. Cole makes the most sense, probably. 12:15 Q-Ball: Jeets at Monday Night Football, during the Winter Meetings…how bad a look is that? 12:16 Dave Cameron: For a guy who apparently knew how to handle PR as a player, he really sucks at it as an owner. 12:16 Jose: How are scouts and stats so far off when it comes to Hosmer’s defense? What are scouts seeing that the stats aren’t? 12:17 Dave Cameron: It’s more about weighting things than seeing things. 12:17 Dave Cameron: People highly overvalue scooping, for instance. Those picks in the dirt are very memorable and it’s easy to draw up a narrative about how many runs a guy saves by keeping his fielders from making errors. But in reality, the gap in scooping at 1B is a few runs a year. 12:18 Sam: Would you rather have 2/14 for Swarzak or 2/21 (including buyout) for Morrow? 12:18 Dave Cameron: Probably Morrow. 12:18 Dave Cameron: But both deals perfectly fine. 12:18 Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Is there any scenario where trading for Machado instead of waiting until next year makes sense for the Phillies? 12:18 Dave Cameron: If you think you can save a good chunk of money by getting that exclusive negotiating window, maybe. 12:19 Dave Cameron: But probably not. 12:19 El Jefe: DBacks may be trying to move Greinke to free up capital for JD Martinez… which is more preferable – 4 years of Greinke at $30M per season preferable or 7 years of JD at $30M per season? 12:19 Dave Cameron: Not sure JDM is any better than Greinke, honestly. 12:20 Erik: The Stanton trade is weird because there aren’t many players who are both great and potentially a bad contract. Can you think of any players traded in the recent past who fit both categories? I’m struggling to think of any, which makes it hard to assess the Marlins’ return. 12:20 Dave Cameron: A-Rod is the obvious comp. 12:21 Colin: Yesterday Carlos Pena suggested that a team should offer Machado a front-loaded deal with an opt out after 5 years. What do you think of this type of contract in general? I’d be surprised to see one like it. 12:22 Dave Cameron: Present cash is more valuable to teams than players, since they can use that money to buy wins that increase player happiness. So no real reason for frontloaded deals. Players are better off taking their compensation later. 12:23 Jagger: Will the Yankees start minor Leaguers Wade/Andujar or sign/trade for another infielder before spring training? 12:23 Dave Cameron: I think they’ll bring in a veteran. 12:23 Dave Cameron: Maybe a Yangervis Solarte type. 12:23 Mario Mendoza: After adding Stanton ($22M per luxury tax calc) and subtracting Headley (13?), where to Yanks stand in relation to the luxury tax threshold? 12:23 Dave Cameron: They’re $25M to $30M under. 12:24 Derek Falvey: Do the Twins have a realistic shot at getting Darvish? 12:24 Dave Cameron: I haven’t heard anyone else on Darvish, so sure. 12:24 Jon Bon Jovi: How do you feel about the Twins’ signing of Pineda? 12:24 Dave Cameron: I love everything the Twins have done this winter. 12:24 Dave Cameron: They are having the off-season of my dreams. 12:24 Derek Falvey: How likely is it that the Twins put together a package for a controllable starter like Cole or Archer? 12:24 Dave Cameron: Not sure they have the pieces to make that happen. 12:26 Josh: If the O’s actually trade Machado (I have my doubts considering the owner, and the manager/GM contracts run-out after 2018 season). They should just go all in and trade everything including Schoop. What type of return would Schoop bring? 12:26 Dave Cameron: I agree they should burn it down. 12:26 Dave Cameron: I agree they probably won’t. 12:26 Dave Cameron: Schoop might not bring back what you’d want, though, given how many 2Bs are out there. 12:27 Bernie: 4 years of control for Santana versus 2 for Bradley. 12:27 Dave Cameron: Bradley has 3 left. 12:28 Joe: Odds Red Sox sign Carlos Santana? 12:28 Dave Cameron: 1% 12:28 spm: In your opinion, was Ozuna’s year a breakout or an anomaly? 12:28 Dave Cameron: More the latter. 12:29 Dave Cameron: I think he’s a nice hitter, not a great one. 12:29 John: You think there’s some logic to the Astros going after Darvish and potentially dealing Keuchel? I keep thinking about the possibility of a Keuchel extension…and having nightmares of Jared Weaver’s career arc 12:29 Dave Cameron: Yeah, I could see that. 12:29 Dave Cameron: But HOU in a position they don’t need to take crazy risks. 12:29 Dave Cameron: They have the division title in their sights for the next 3-4 years. They can afford to let things play out a bit more. 12:30 stever20: how much do you think the Stanton trade to New York helps the Nats with resigning Harper? Does it take New York completely out of the picture now(with them focusing on Machado)? 12:31 Dave Cameron: I don’t think it helps the Nats that much. If NY decides they really want Harper, they could always trade Stanton to LAD next winter to clear the spot. 12:31 tommy lasagna: the dodgers biggest need is probably another starter right? kershaw with back issues, hill with blisters, wood is extremely hot or cold. 12:32 Dave Cameron: Nah, their rotation is still very good. 12:32 Dave Cameron: Teams would kill for Kershaw/Hill/Maeda/Wood/Ryu/McCarthy with Buehler/Oaks hanging around. 12:33 stever20: heard someone on radio this morning(forget who) suggest that Baltimore may be smart to wait until June/July near the deadline and get a desperate team to make an offer. Your thoughts? 12:33 Dave Cameron: Teams are more desperate now. 12:33 Dave Cameron: Plus if they trade him now, acquiring team can plan on a QO and some compensation, which goes away midseason. 12:34 Outta my way, Gyorkass: A trade for Ozuna means STL’s probably out on Donaldson, right? I know they are two different positions to upgrade, but Mozeliak wouldn’t put that big a dent in the STL farm to contend this year, would he? 12:34 Dave Cameron: Right 12:34 Lou: Would Yelich be a big improvement over Joc? 12:34 Dave Cameron: Yes 12:34 Jay: Thoughts on the rumored Ozuna deal? Flaherty, Alcantara + is a lot to give up for a guy with 2 years left on his deal. Would the Cardinals be better off pushing in more chips (or taking back more dead money) to land Yelich? 12:34 Dave Cameron: Yeah, it seems like an overpay to me. 12:35 Dave Cameron: But STL is in asset consolidation mode so they probably feel they have to overpay. 12:35 Joe: Do you like the Smyly’s or Pineda’s 2/10 deal better from the team perspective? 12:35 Dave Cameron: Pineda 12:35 Dave Cameron: Would love to see what he looks like in relief when he gets back at end of this year. 12:36 Rohan: If you’re the Yankees, would you rather pay the price for 5 years of Fulmer or go for 2 years of Cole? 12:36 Dave Cameron: Cole, because he’ll be much cheaper. 12:37 Zach: are you related to daz and mike 12:37 Dave Cameron: Yes, I definitely have that kind of natural athleticism. 12:37 Fat Matt: Would it be enough for the Yankees trade Frazier, Andujar and Ellsbury for Fulmer and then sign Moustakes? Plan on piecing it together until Torres is ready. 12:38 Dave Cameron: You want the Tigers to trade their best asset for Frazier and Andujar as the return plus they have to take Ellsbury’s deal? 12:38 Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t even consider that without Ellsbury in there. 12:39 Uncle Rico: 90% of your response suck. 12:39 Dave Cameron: Thank you! 12:40 Tina: Will the Sox give JD $200m? What’s your projection for his contract? 12:40 Dave Cameron: I doubt they go that high, but it’s Dombrowski, so let’s say 7/$180M or something. 12:43 CT: Any chance the Sox can dump Hanley’s contract on someone with a prospect attached? 12:43 Dave Cameron: There are like 10 teams trying to move dead money right now. It’s a crowded market. 12:44 Erik: If you’re Harper or Machado next season, are you pushing for a super-long deal to set you for your career (12-15 years, even?), or are you pushing for a short-term deal at a very high AAV in order to sign a second lucrative free agent contract at about age 30? 12:45 Dave Cameron: I think teams will push longer deals to reduce the CBT calculation. The bidders will have to plan on being over the tax threshold for a while, so they’ll be better off having the AAV at $35M than $45M. 12:45 Brandon M: Do you think a Greinke trade actually happens this winter? 12:45 Dave Cameron: No 12:46 Jerj Clooners: How many beers have to seen Eno consume so far? 12:47 Dave Cameron: Not that many, but we haven’t been in the same places that much. I will note that, when we tried to give him a ride back to the hotel at midnight last night, he responded with “I can’t, I’m having dinner.” He then posted in our slack group at 3 am that he was lost and couldn’t find his way around. 12:47 Dave Cameron: So I’m pretty sure he had some beers last night… 12:48 Ben: Of the traditional 5 tools, on a 20-80 scales, it is obvious who has 80 hitting (Altuve, Votto), 80 power (Stanton, Judge), 80 Speed (Hamilton, Buxton), and 80 fielding (Kiermaier, Simmons), but who has an 80 arm? Puig? 12:48 Dave Cameron: Brett Phillips 12:49 Todd: I was happy about the Shaw/Mcgee deals for the Rockies, but now reports say they’re close to getting Holland too. Is this one step too far? 12:49 Dave Cameron: Shaw deal was fine, McGee isn’t that good, and Holland probably a terrible idea. 12:49 Dave Cameron: And I have no idea why the Rockies still think they’re a good bullpen away from greatness. 12:50 Dave Cameron: They have bad Cs, no 1B, question at SS, weak corner OFs, and just an okay rotation. 12:50 Ben: What are the chances Greg Holland is still looking for a job in the middle of spring training? 12:50 Dave Cameron: Given that he just signed with COL, not great. 12:51 Bort: Would the Rockies be interested in a Story + Pint for Machado + Britton deal? 12:51 Dave Cameron: Of course, and BAL would tell them to pound sand. 12:52 tb.25: If the Giants rent McCutchen and Machado (hey, a fan can dream), are they in the hunt for the WC? 12:52 Dave Cameron: Sure, but they don’t have the assets to get both. 12:52 Post Malone: LAD wasn’t willing to trade for Stanton this offseason, why would they do it next year? 12:52 Dave Cameron: Lots of money coming off their books next year. 12:52 Ohtani Kitaen: What have the Twins done other than sign Pinaeda and sell $2-million in international signing money for a couple of prospects? Hardly seems enough to be called the off-season of your dreams. 12:53 Dave Cameron: Hired Josh Kalk away from the Rays. 12:53 Biff Bob Ertz: Are you at all surprised LAD wasn’t offering Verdugo + Forsythe for Stanton? Seemed it was there for the taking. 12:54 Dave Cameron: No, because that would have been a massive overpay. 12:55 Joe: I realize there were a lot of factors at play, but can we totally dismiss the idea that the Yankees and Jeter colluded on the Stanton deal? 12:55 Dave Cameron: Yes, we can. 12:58 Guy: Can the Indians get in on Donaldson? 12:58 Dave Cameron: Doesn’t sound like he’s available. 12:58 Gary: Eric was talking about a Robles/Ozuna thing yesterday…there’s no way the Nationals give up 6yrs of Robles for 2 of Ozuna, right? 12:58 Dave Cameron: Right 12:58 Harper: Longenhagen suggested yesterday there’s a sense within the game that Harper stays in DC. Have you also heard this? Seems like he goes wherever the money is, which probably isn’t DC unless he doesn’t want mind being paid in 2040. 12:58 Dave Cameron: I have not heard that. 12:59 Dave Cameron: Nats will try, but most people I talk to expect him to leave. 1:00 Ohtani Kitaen: Does Ellsbury, Frazier and Wade for Samardzija and Belt work? Or at least begin the conversation? 1:00 Dave Cameron: Ellsbury might have more negative value than Frazier has positive value. 1:00 Dave Cameron: So these proposals are “does this package of nothing get me good players?” 1:03 Lee: You seem to have a rather negative opinion of Dave Dombrowski. Other than his signing of Price for market value, his trades have largely worked out well. He’s give up some highly regarded prospects but he got back elite talent on under market deals in return. Personally I’m not sure his tenure will work out but his trade record is pretty damn good. 1:03 Dave Cameron: He has one play in his playbook: Identify some top-of-market free agent/trade acquisition, then offer 20% more than that guy is worth. 1:04 Dave Cameron: He gets away with it because he’s really good at getting ownership to spend more money so he doesn’t need to spend efficiently. 1:06 Sam: Do you like Swazarak at 2/14? 1:11 Dave Cameron: Yeah, that one was a nice deal. 1:12 Josh: Dave, do you go to the winter meetings every year? Planning a guys trip next year for the ones in Vegas. 1:12 Dave Cameron: Yeah, the whole FG crew makes it out here. We brought 11 people this time. 1:13 john wick: Will Orioles fans be disappointed with the return for Machado and Britton? Seems like neither is going to fetch a top prospect — which is the cost of waiting on this decision. 1:13 Dave Cameron: Most likely, yes 1:15 Dave Cameron: Ozuna to STL just went down 1:15 Dave Cameron: Finally 1:15 Nick: Finally some action at the Winter meetings!! 1:16 Roadhog: Mish says Ozuna to Cards is done. No word on return yet. 1:16 Dave Cameron: It’s going to be Flaherty/Alcantara/Grichuk, I bet. 1:16 Dave Cameron: Okay, on that note, Eno is here to tag in for me. 1:16 Dave Cameron: Mostly because I’ve had to pee for a while now. 1:17 Dave Cameron: Szym will be by in a while too. 1:17 Eno Sarris: heyoooooooooooooo 1:17 Dave Cameron: Have fun with Eno! 1:17 Brandon M: Ozuna to Cards is officially official 1:17 Eno Sarris: for really reals? what’s the return tho 1:18 Joe Maddons Crazy Uncle: Which free agent signs a deal for significantly less than the market predicted because it is almost February? 1:18 Eno Sarris: Seems like we’re all headed for that collision course. Probably going to be a first baseman. 1:18 Frank: Is there anything put in the CBA post-Bonilla that would prevent the Yankees from signing CC for $30m/20 years for CBT purposes? 1:19 Eno Sarris: well I love this question even as much as I hated the “THE METS ARE STILL PAYING BOBBY BONILLA” stink pieces. 1:19 Tim: Today it was leaked that Darvish was tipping his pitches in the World Series. I know it was rumored at the time, but do you think this “breaking news” is a leak from his agents to explain away the awful WS performance? I know it was just 2 games and teams are smarter than that, but could the lack of noise around Darvish maybe have his agents spooked? 1:19 Eno Sarris: Or is it a leak from a team to suppress his salary? If you’ve got a tipping problem in the freaking world series that can’t be a great sign. 1:19 Jimbo: Why isn’t Cincinnati making Phillies-style moves of 1st half improvement/trade chips? 1:20 Eno Sarris: They should have signed one of Pineda or Smyly, right, but then again maybe those guys didn’t want to pitch there. 1:20 Dan man: Why does Ohtani’s sprained UCL not make him high risk for TJ surgery? Does pretty much every pitcher just have a sprained UCL all the time? 1:20 Eno Sarris: Tanaka been pitching with one for a while. I don’t think everyone has a tear but every pitcher hurts. 1:22 TylerD: What would it take for the Indians to get Machado? 1:22 Eno Sarris: For them to fundamentally change how they do business is all. 1:22 Mitch: i feel like jeter never really was good at managing PR as a player. He just never said anything and it worked. The problem is that doesn’t work as an owner 1:22 Eno Sarris: It might! I mean a bunch of owners are silent owners, right? 1:22 Desperate, confused Marlins fan: sooo what did we get for Ozuna?? 1:23 Eno Sarris: Joel Sherman says SP and OF with team control and MLB experience, and a pitching prospect. So… like, Grichuk and Flaherty and Alcantara? 1:24 Tiss: How do the WM compare to other events you guys are sent to? SABR Conferences, Arizona Fall League 1:25 Eno Sarris: God I love the AFL, it’s so understated and the kids so fresh and the weather always perfect. SABR in second place because I like the conversations a lot, the conversations here are great, but some of the crap you have to deal with around it, the stupid rumors and all the waiting around… 1:25 Biff Bob Ertz: Is the general feeling in baseball that it is cheaper to build a dominating bullpen than build a good starting staff, and so wins are more affordable through the relief pitcher route? 1:25 Eno Sarris: I guess so but have you seen reliever prices lately? 1:26 Stieb Youth: Does that mean the Cardinals are trading Fowler to the Giants? 1:26 Eno Sarris: Weird. But not insane. 1:26 Chrisitan Yellich: Hi I would like to be traded for the White Sox to play in 10 straight ALCS against the Yankees 1:26 AdamZ: Must be depressing, getting traded to the Marlins. 1:27 Guest: So Eno we hear you got lost at 3 am last night 1:27 Eno Sarris: so, so lost. I was wandering around our villas and they all look the same and have the same numbering and yeah 1:27 lets get lit : Eno are you ready to get lit 1:28 Eno Sarris: that was last night. Josh Kusnick ate a 48 ounce stake at Shula’s and I was up at three with Heyman and Divish at the bar and *that’s* what I love about this place. 1:28 Roadhog: Yo His palms are sweaty, knees weak, arms are heavy There’s vomit on his sweater already, mom’s Piscotty 1:28 Giant Gonzales: Any reason to think that JDM couldn’t handle first base? Doesn’t make sense for Boston to sign him and then have to move JBJ just to make space 1:29 Eno Sarris: This is what I would want to do. 1:29 Jose: With Ozuna to the Cards and the Red Sox dangling JBJ, seems like the market for Hosmer’s drying up. What’s your guess for his contract now? 1:30 Eno Sarris: Someone asked me a different version of this. What contract would you like for Hosmer. 4/80 I think I’d be fine with that. 1:31 Sean: Daniel Norris: if forced to choose between serviceable SP or garbage, you select…. 1:31 Eno Sarris: I just put a trade out for his services. There’s still some stuff there. 1:31 Chris Tracy: It’s only taken a year for the Cubs to be the best and deepest team, to being passed by several teams and now the depth is gone and there’s a limit on how much they can spend. Is there anything they can do to catch the Yanks, Astros and Dodgers? Or is 2016 all there’s going to be? 1:31 Eno Sarris: They are still very good and very deep and they just signed a depth pitcher and they will get another and a reliever probably and I wouldnt panic even if this sentence is very long and doesn’t contain punctuation. 1:32 Zihuatenejo: Eno, Dave called you out for drunken shenanigans last night. What dirty laundry of Dave’s would you like to share in response? 1:32 Eno Sarris: I mean I wear my stupidity proudly. I don’t think he aired anything I wouldn’t. 1:32 E: Where were you at 3am last night? 1:32 Eno Sarris: I didn’t know 1:32 Roadhog: I like Darvish on the Twins, so I hope that happens. Bring back Chris Gimenez as well. 1:33 Eno Sarris: I mean they need, you know, an actual pitching staff beyond Berrios. So Yu would be a big start. 1:33 StraightCashman: Stanton & Ozuna, gone.. where will Yelich & Realmuto end up? 1:33 Eno Sarris: Miami. 1:33 Jerj Clooners: Going to Boston this weekend and need beer recs. I’ve heard you gush about Orange Julius so that’s on the list. Any others? 1:34 Eno Sarris: Trillium is great. Lamplighter and Lord Hobo are near each other in Cambridge and are great. Night Shift is a trek but awesome. 1:34 Uncleweez: Re: Smyly/Pineda and Cincy. Sure, but wouldn’t there at least have been some rumblings that they were in on them? Outside of the Ohtani push, pitching rumors out of Cincy have been silent 1:34 Eno Sarris: Maybe they hoping Bob Steve found something in his second curveball, Disco will be healthy, and they’ll sign someone who can actually start 2018 healthy. 1:34 Ohtani quirks: Fun think to think about: If Ohtani ever requires TJ, is he more valuable because he can only miss 2-3 months then still perform as a hitter? 1:35 Eno Sarris: love it 1:35 Olani: How true is it that Votto wouldn’t accept a trade? 1:35 Eno Sarris: I can’t imagine he wouldn’t listen, Stanton style, to the best teams try to pry him away. 1:36 Eno Sarris: Okay Passan saying that Yelich is in play. Gonna take a good ransom, though, and what team… Wait Dodgers could use a really good cheap OF, especially if they can drop some short term money deals to the Marlins, like send em Adrian Gonzalez and some good prospects. They are definitely trying to get under the lux tax some year. 1:37 OneTrueDan: Cobb to Chicago seems pretty obvious, right? Straightforward enough. 1:37 Eno Sarris: All the smoke is there. His old pitching coach, they need another starter, probably…. but I dunno, they’re also probably nervous that he never got the splitter back. 1:37 Red Foreman: Can you explain how a Machado trade would work in regard to an extension. He has to approve a 72 hour window to negotiate? Is that right? 1:37 Eno Sarris: that’s been done before. 1:38 Josh: Is Dipoto a good or bad GM? I can’t figure him out. 1:38 Eno Sarris: Fun to cover, although sometimes he goes straight to the readers with his own podcast, apparently. 1:38 Art van delay: I loathe 10% of your comments. 1:38 Eno Sarris: I’m okay with that. 1:38 gump: Saberseminar > Sloan 1:39 Eno Sarris: For baseball people for sure. 1:39 Roadhog: I imagine if Piscotty is in the Ozuna deal, the Marlins turn around and deal him to Oakland, correct? 1:39 Eno Sarris: Which outfielder is in the deal is the most interesting detail yet to come. 1:39 Brian: Which teams do you view as leading the way in terms of data driven pitching analytics? Where might you rank the mariners in that list? 1:40 Eno Sarris: I think the Mariners do a lot there, look at some of their fringe acquisitions like Moll. Extreme high spin and low spin waiver pickups. I think very highly of the Cubs pitching analytics group, they’re obviously doing their best to supplement offensive core with smart pitching pickups. The Rays were formidable with Kalk so maybe the Twins will pick it up. 1:41 Frankie: Pick one in keep forever no $ dynasty: Acuna or Ohtani 1:41 Eno Sarris: Acuna because I think he’s the number one bat prospect and Ohtani might end up being more conventional than we want to believe. 1:42 MikeM: Are people underestimating the Yankees current rotation? I know they can use another starter (who can’t?) but a rotation of Severino, Tanaka, Gray, and Montgomery and someone at 5 is pretty good. 1:42 Eno Sarris: and with that lineup 1:42 Babe Lincoln: Re Harper, though, seems like most people expect him to leave because most people expect him to leave. Circular. What actual evidence/logic do we have telling us that (a) he’ll take the most money offered to him regardless, and/or (b) it won’t be offered by the Nats? 1:43 Eno Sarris: For a) we have most of human existence other than Ohtani, and for b) we have no evidence. They could easily sign him. 1:44 Roadhog: What the heck is Lorenzo Cain’s market? 1:45 Eno Sarris: Contenders that need center fielders and look like theyll spend money……….. wow maybe the Mets will get a late off season deal on him? Or the Giants clear salary and sign him. 1:45 Eno Sarris: But I do think the Giants want to stay under the threshold, meaning they have about $4m right now. 1:46 Ed in Iowa: Hey how was Shula’s? We keep threatening to go but never make it. My rec: Sanaa 1:46 Eno Sarris: Really good steak, nothing else was remarkable. 1:46 Corey: I stayed up late with you and Divish (mostly Divish) in Seattle, that was fun. 1:46 Eno Sarris: Divish is the best. 1:46 blackburn: When does Andrew McCutchen get traded? 1:47 Eno Sarris: Everyone thought the Giants were obvious but what if the deal from ownership was ‘if you get Ohtani or Stanton, we can spend for now, but if not, take a step back.’ 1:47 toki: Findind any hidden gems of beer at the WM? 1:47 Eno Sarris: There’s Lord Hobo Boomsauce here now! 1:47 HoF: Bonds and Clemens getting into the HoF this year? 1:48 Eno Sarris: Be funny if that letter from Morgan pissed people off and more people voted for him. 1:48 Babe Lincoln: Like Swarzak at 2/$14m? 1:48 Eno Sarris: Yes. Cheaper than rest of relievers and the Mets have a really good pen now. Right? Sneaky good. Back three are really fun, all for different reasons. 1:49 Brian R: Is CC to the Yankees all but a certainty at this point or do you see any other realistic landing spots? 1:49 Eno Sarris: He’s made so much money I could see him retiring if no Yankees deal but I doubt his agent would admit that right now. 1:49 Eno-tional Hardcore: Odds the rule 5 draft is the most exciting thing to happen this week? 1:49 Eno Sarris: That would be sad because whoof. 1:50 Erik: You can hit 2-3 months after TJS? Don’t you need, like, arms to hit? 1:50 Eno Sarris: I don’t know the exact time line but I think position players come back in like six months. 1:50 E: But Jeter really isn’t the ‘owner’, isn’t he supposed to be the face and voice of the majority owner? 1:51 Eno Sarris: Director of Baseball Ops… there are guys in that role specifically that are quiet. 1:52 scottz: Yesterday, I saw a “confirmed” rumor of Gordon, Jay, and Granite to the Pirates for Cole. Then, I saw discussion of that briefly. Now, nothing. How many conversations are “confirmed” to have happened, but really aren’t close to happening at all. Is it 90%? 1:52 Eno Sarris: Feels that way for sure. 1:53 Scott: What should the Giants do this offseason? They can’t really blow it up because their players don’t have much surplus value, and they can’t go for it because they want to stay under the CBT. Just make minor moves and see how it goes? 1:53 Eno Sarris: Wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of cost-saving deal and then a few smaller signings. 1:53 Re: Beer in Boston: Depending on how you get there (driving?), Jack’s Abbey is in Framingham. Also, Mystic brewery is right near Night Shift and the best pizza in the area, a hole in the wall called Ciao 1:54 Chalupa Batman: Not that I’ve seen it rumored or think it would happen, but wouldn’t a trade for Piscotty be perfect for the Mets? Right-handed and can play 1B/OF, and isn’t Jay Bruce again 1:54 Eno Sarris: A’s looking for same thing. 1:55 DTH: Perusing the statcast average exit velo leaders: 1. Aaron Judge (sure)2. Joey Gallo (makes sense)3. Nelson Cruz (yep)4. Miguel Sano (ok yeah)5. Efren Navarro (…………what?) small sample sizes are fun. 1:56 Big Cheese: Do you think the Jays and Cain make any sense? Seems like they need at least one more big bat to have any (slim) chance at contending for the WC. 1:56 Eno Sarris: they’re in that big middle. We might get a surprise signing for Cain because the obvious ones may act cheaply. 1:57 StraightCashman: Stop making me wish the Mets had better owners.. 1:57 Eno Sarris: i know right 1:57 tommy lasagna: is there a trade that the US can make with Canada to offload Bieber? Straight salary dump? 1:57 Eno Sarris: can we send back that dude that was married to a kardashian for a while 1:57 Capt’n Canada: Neil Walker scenario: He “WANTS” to win, he fits on the yankees, so they offer him 2 years 26 million. And a less competitive team offers him 3 years 34 million. What are the chances he goes to the yanks? 1:58 Eno Sarris: decent because he’ll convince himself there’s one last deal waiting for him after. 1:58 Hannah Hochevar: I like both, but do you prefer Smyly or Pineda for TJ return? 1:58 Eno Sarris: Smyly had a crappier, longer injury history going in, so I guess that’s an argument for Pineda. But Pineda had labrum surgery way back when, so I’ll take Smyly. 2:00 MnM: I’ve been arguing with my fellow Cubs fans about the offense. They think it’s fine because they scored over 800 runs. I think it’s too inconsistent and I hate having Russell and Baez in the same lineup. I know they had one of the better OBP as a team, but it still feels like too much of a feast or famine offense. Personally, I think they need Schwarber to develop into the hitter they think he could be or they have to sign Harper. 2:00 Eno Sarris: Wouldn’t a high contact spray hitter be a better addition to that high BB high K high power lineup? 2:00 Eno Sarris: Hahaha the Mets Yankees Angels Dodgers Brewers A’s Padres Giants Rays and Blue Jays are on Kinsler’s no-trade clause. Like I don’t even understand how that list was put together. 2:00 toki: Give me a description of Lord Hobo Boomsauce? Overly hoppy? Is it dry hopped? Honestly, I can’t stand anything dry hopped. 2:01 Eno Sarris: It might be dry hopped but it’s not bitter at all. It’s basically an NEIPA, so it’s hazy, has thick mouthfeel, and is more fruity than bitter. 2:01 Macho Manny: Why are teams so averse to trading in division? In theory, wouldn’t the team trading the player away have the most data/info on the player to expose their “weaknesses”? 2:02 Eno Sarris: I think it’s just optics. If the player does better going forward your fan base will see them every damn month. 2:02 Ehhhhhrly. : Schimpf starts the season on the 25-man roster for the Rays next year? 2:02 Eno Sarris: How many left-handed second basemen did they acquire? Should Brad Miller be looking over his shoulder? 2:02 Lou: Is the Luxury tax working in keeping competitive balance? 2:03 Eno Sarris: The tax is altering the way big teams make decisions. Dunno about the balance, the Stanton trade didn’t feel very good for that. 2:03 FireDrayton: Reports of Joe Smith taking a physical with the Astros, 2-year deal. You have a quick download on him? 2:03 Eno Sarris: He’s really really good. Very consistent. Despite funky arm slot, he’s been working to alter his looks, with a four-seam, and throwing up in zone more often, to combat the fact that people have seen his funky look more often. 2:04 Dan Szymborski: Brock Holt! 2:04 Eno Sarris: wait Brock Holt did something? 2:04 Dan Szymborski: No, I just like shouting it. 2:04 Eno Sarris: LOL 2:05 LegallyEagle: As a baseball fan with no intention to look for a job, would attending the winter meetings in the future (perhaps especially Vegas) be a worthwhile experience? I don’t know exactly what a fan may get to see and who there is to talk to. 2:05 Dan Szymborski: I think it depends how social you are in that case. 2:05 Eno Sarris: Last night I saw Terry Collins looking sad and Darryl Strawberry looking good. I’ve had beers with Bruce Bochy. But yeah, Dan’s right too. It’s not good enough to make standing in the corner looking at it to go just for that. 2:05 Dan Szymborski: Go to one in a location that you’d like to go otherwise. 2:06 Eno Sarris: Vegas next year? 2:06 Eno Sarris: Now *I* have to pee so I think I’ll leave you in Dan’s hands. Supple hands. 2:06 Dan Szymborski: As my mom calls them, the soft hands of someone who has never done a day of manual labor. 2:07 Dan Szymborski: As if mom has. 2:07 Scared: What are the Angels going to do about 2/3 base? 2:07 Dan Szymborski: I think they understand they ought to be aggressive. That’s why you hear so much Angels. 2:07 Eno Sarris: is that somewhere between home plate and first base? 2:07 Scott: Seems like Kinsler wants to avoid high-tax states, and then threw in the Rays and Brewers for some reason. 2:07 Eno Sarris: sorry sorry I’m gone. thanks guys, thanks Dan! 2:07 Dan Szymborski: Florida doesn’t have an income tax. 2:09 Eno-tional Hardcore: Dave traded for Eno and Dan has been the most exciting transaction today. 2:09 Bob Simith: So teams knew this about Ohtani…right? 2:10 Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s not quite as severe as the top story. I think in their hearts, they expect it of every pitcher who can hit 99 at times 2:10 Biff Bob Ertz: Kinsler: Hates California. Anti-Canadian. Also, anti-New York, and met a guy from Milwaukee that he found pretty distasteful, so they’re out. Everybody else is fine. Even the Marlins. 2:10 Unlce Rico: Would Cain be a fit for Boston if they sign JD and moved Benny to CF then trade JBJ for Abreu and Cease? 2:10 Dan Szymborski: I’d skip the rigamarole and see if Martinez won’t fight about being DH and then sign a 1B. 2:11 Mario Mendoza: Szym, are you part of the 11-man FG Crew Dave brought to WM, are you an independent? 2:11 Dan Szymborski: Oh, I skipped it this year. I just end up going drinking and I have ESPN stuff to write. 2:12 Joe G: The Machado to ChiSox rumors seem to be a fantasy, but for arguments sake: could you see ChiSox offering a package and then Machado actually accepting a 8 year 250 mill extension? or something similar? 2:12 Dan Szymborski: I think given his age, he’s going to want 10 years. 2:12 Milwaukee beerjays: Should the Blue Jays go after Starlin Castro? Or is a corner infielder more important? 2:12 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that’s a necessity. 2:13 Dan Szymborski: I think Diaz is OK enough to be insurance for Travis/Tulo insurance. 2:14 Dan Szymborski: And the Jays have other stuff on the burner to worry about. 2:15 Biff Bob Ertz: Should the Mariners re-acquire Brad Miller to play 1B, LF, and back up MI? Would you prefer Motter or Miller in that role? 2:15 Dan Szymborski: I think Miller’s a little risky for a team like the M’s. They need to spend assets on more importnat needs and hard to say what Miller’s going to do. 2:16 Dan Szymborski: Motter’s risky too, of course, but unless I missed something that just happened or something, they already *have* him. 2:17 Biff Bob Ertz: Is Ryon Healy ever going to figure out how to hit bendy things? 2:17 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so. He’s not bad at *recognizing* pitches but I think he’s always going to count on making bank on fastballs. 2:18 toki: what does a JBJ to the CHC look like? 2:18 Dan Szymborski: Imagination Christmas? 2:18 Joe: Ohtani requires two roster spots in my fantasy league (hitter and pitcher) but they cannot be acquired/traded separately. Avoid right? 2:18 Dan Szymborski: That’s really obnoxious. 2:18 Dan Szymborski: Though most fantasy rules aren’t really equipped to deal with a player like Ohtani. 2:18 Biff Bob Ertz: If I’m the Angels, I either deal for Starlin from the Marlins for 2B and sign Moustakas at 3B, or I trade for Cesar Hernandez to play 2B…and trade for Machado. Hahahah. No. I’m drunk. 2:19 Dan Szymborski: Starlin is more interesting for the Angels than the Jays above. 2:20 Dan Szymborski: Because he’s a real upgrade on whatever they’d go otherwise and they should take advantage of the good parts of the team. 2:20 bob: Eno you a little tipsy right now? 2:20 Dan Szymborski: The secret is out: I’m just Eno when he’s really drunk and puts on a fat suit. 2:21 Dan Szymborski: Not sure when/if Eno’s coming back. I assume he’s not still peeing or he has the bladder of the gods. 2:22 Chad: Dan, love your stuff….do you see Triggs having any success this year if healthy in OAK? 2:22 Dan Szymborski: ZiPS actually has him about league-average as a starter. 2:22 Dan Szymborski: Outside of ZiPS, he fascinates me. 2:23 Dan Szymborski: Obviously, Triggs isn’t going to blow you away with fastballs, but he has all this stuff that just moves and it’s like he’s throwing bowling balls there sometimes. 2:24 CT: Dave guessed 7/180M for JD Martinez.. what’s your guess? 2:24 Dan Szymborski: Less than Dave, but more than ZiPS. 2:24 Dan Szymborski: I guess it would be helpful if I dug up the ZiPS 2:25 Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thought 5/101, which I think he’ll beat. let’s call it 6/130? 2:25 Biff Bob Ertz: Is Martin Prado a dude that should be on more peoples’ radar for bargain hunting. Mariners, looking at you. 2:25 Dan Szymborski: Eh, I’m not sure he’s going to end up being a bargain 2:26 Dan Szymborski: Given his age, I’m not super stoked about a big bounceback. 2:26 Dan Szymborski: And I think the Marlins aren’t going to eat the contract *and* not insist on anything. 2:27 Dan Szymborski: If Prado were a free agent, sure, offer him 1/7 or something and see what happens. 2:27 Chad: Is Eddie Butler basically out of luck…no SP, probably not gonna make the pen, but out of options 2:28 Dan Szymborski: He’ll get another job, though I’m bearish on how he plays. 2:28 ShouldBeWorking: Most fun non-playoff team from 2017 to watch in 2018? Angels? 2:28 Dan Szymborski: Not a bad choice. 2:28 Scott: Can you post your Bochy wheel of fortune image? Please? 2:28 Dan Szymborski: Heh, hold on 2:29 Dan Szymborski: 2:29 gump: Do teams take into account divisional weaknesses? Like, did NYY focus more on RH hitters (Stanton, Frazier, Torres) given Boston’s rotation. Or, are BAL/TB leaning more towards long term rebuilding given Stanton? Or is that all marginal when you’re just trying to get the best players/give your team the best shot at a championship down the road 2:29 Dan Szymborski: To a small degree, though I can’t speak for every organization. 2:29 Frankie: Brock Holt is Steve Holt’s real father 2:29 Biff Bob Ertz: Is this the year the White Sox start to flash the upside? They’ll have Moncada, Eloy, Giolito (eh), Kopech (eh), and…let’s see…is that most of it for this year? 2:30 Dan Szymborski: They’re another team on the fun-to-watch that didn’t make the playoffs. 2:30 Dan Szymborski: Kopech is particular intriguing. He could break out and be amazing or be the worst pitcher in baseball and neither would shock me. 2:31 Jebby: Do you think either Machado or Harper will get a deal longer than 10 years? 2:31 Dan Szymborski: Probably not longer than 10 2:31 TFP: Why not see if Clint Frazier can pick it at 3rd instead of just trading him. 2:31 Dan Szymborski: *I* would becuase I think spring is a great time for crazy experiments like that. 2:31 Joe: Perfect world: O’s sign Machado or get a huge trade package for him? 2:32 Dan Szymborski: Trade package. The support for Machado just isn’t there long-term 2:32 Bart: Holland is just talking with the Rockies so I hope they focus on a Starter instead. 2:32 Dan Szymborski: They need an OF/1B like anything 2:33 Lou: Is Yang Hyeon Jong staying in the KBO or is he coming over? 2:33 Dan Szymborski: There was some talk about him like a month ago, but I’ve heard literally nothing since. 2:34 Big hen: Is there any package that gets theme ts Machado. Just doesn’t seem possible wo including Sundesrgaard or something. 2:34 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s likely. 2:34 Nick: Have you found a new team to support yet? If not the Nat’s are a good team to root for!! 2:34 Dan Szymborski: No, I’ll just root for players I like and teams that interest me, which I do anyway. 2:35 Dan Szymborski: I hope to eventually be able to care about what the O’s do again. 2:36 Hannah Hochevar: As an O’s fan, should I be jealous of the Ozuna haul? Will we get less for Manny? 2:36 Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen the Ozuna package outside of Sandy Alcantara. Did more break while I’ve bene in here? 2:36 Oddball Herrera: Is the list of teams on a player’s no trade list really about wanting to avoid the team/city? Or is it more about trying to identify likely landing spots so you can exert leverage over the trade process, should it come up 2:36 Dan Szymborski: It’s complex; there are a lot of reasons. 2:36 Dan Szymborski: Some don’t want to go some places. Some want leverage. Occasionally some that can approve to limited teams will pick teams they don’t think will trade for them. 2:37 ShouldBeWorking: Do the Angels even have the basic prospects to trade for Machado? 2:37 Dan Szymborski: The Angels can agree to reliever the O’s of their remaining slot money something something philosophical 2:37 Roadhog: Slusser says the A’s are getting closer on a Piscotty deal with the Cardinals, so I’m assuming that means he’s not going to Miami. She names Yairo Munoz as a target. 2:37 Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I saw Piscotty 2:38 Jebby: You’ve mentioned that you like Rochefort….any cheaper but similar alternatives? 2:38 Dan Szymborski: There’s very little cheese I don’t like! 2:38 Dan Szymborski: BRUNOST 2:38 Fangraph’s Lurker: classic bait and switch 2:38 Dan Szymborski: Haha, you guys thought you were getting ENO and BOOM, Szymborski time. 2:39 Erik: ZiPS seems to be the low man on Ohtani. Do you take the over on his ZiPS projections? 2:39 Dan Szymborski: Geez, you call that low? 2:39 Dan Szymborski: There are risks associated with him. I think the really good projections are reasonable! 2:40 Biff Bob Ertz: Should Eric Filia get more buzz, or is he just an old dude? 2:40 Dan Szymborski: Oh, he’s worth seeing what he can do at AA 2:40 Dan Szymborski: but for a 24-year-old 1B in the California League, his numbers gotta long Bondsian to get excited. 2:41 Dan Szymborski: The walk machine guys don’t tend to do well as they go up the ladder 2:41 The Ghost of Wade Boggs: What are the odds Michael Fulmer gets traded in these meetings? 2:41 Dan Szymborski: 15? The Tigers *could* trade him for the right package, but htey don’t *need to*. 2:41 Eno-tional Hardcore: If I was a billionaire, and went to the winter meetings offering to pay a player whatever he wants, but he would have to play indie ball for the next 5 years, how many would accept? 2:42 Dan Szymborski: You’ll mostly get fringe guys. 2:42 Dan Szymborski: Weird use of money though! 2:42 Biff Bob Ertz: Prado < Danny Valencia? 2:42 Dan Szymborski: Probably given the situation. 2:42 Jebby: Derek Jeter on the Marlines Hearthstone card please? 2:42 Dan Szymborski: Heh 2:42 I want a three way trade!: Ozuna to Cardinals, Piscotty to A’s should have been a three way trade! 2:43 Dan Szymborski: Maybe the Nats could jump in and somehow get the best player in the three way trade. 2:43 Babe Lincoln: Do other agents besides Boras shit talk teams’ spending habits? Or Bores is that obnoxious/good? 2:43 Dan Szymborski: He’s the best trash-talker. 2:43 Biff Bob Ertz: Dan, give me a candle in the darkness and tell me something really nice about either Sam Moll, Marco Gonzalez, or Andrew Moore. Thank you, 2:43 Dan Szymborski: None of those three are hired killers. 2:44 Phil: Jermaine Dye was a nice #1 comp for Santander – what are your hopes for him? 2:44 Dan Szymborski: Dye would be a really positive result. Probably less than that. 2:44 Dan Szymborski: Somehow, the Orioles have figured out how to develop Mark Trumbos and nothing else. 2:45 Dan Szymborski: Like they found a recipe for steamed limes. 2:45 Fat Matt: How bad do you feel for Yelich if he doesn’t get traded? 2:45 Dan Szymborski: Pretty bad. 2:45 andrew: is clint frazier and chance adams too much for a year of machado? 2:45 Dan Szymborski: Probably 2:45 Jebby: What do you think Holland and the Rockies are talking about? 2:45 Dan Szymborski: How to breed a black chocobo in Final Fantasy VII 2:46 Joe: Is there any doubt that Ohtani’s physical was leaked by a team that feels burned he didn’t sign with them? The timing and the initial exaggeration of the news has jilted ex-lover written all over it. 2:46 Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t doubt it. Lots of teams *really* wanted him. 2:46 Fat Matt: I was worried that a co-worker (O’s fan) was going to be suicidal yesterday. He seems to have given up all hope 2:46 Dan Szymborski: Wait, are you one of my co-workers? 2:46 Frank Menechino with a Funny Hat: Ohtani’s injury must severely diminish the odds that he ever becomes a two-way player, right? Will the Angels really let him play between starts if he’s rehabbing after TJ surgery or pitching with a compromised elbow? 2:46 Dan Szymborski: I think he can DH. 2:46 Eno-tional Hardcore: I had a nice Piscotty with my coffee this morning. 2:46 BK: wow this chat is still going on? you guys are great 2:47 Dan Szymborski: I like to take credit for the efforts of others! 2:47 Hannah Hochevar: Sounds like you don’t buy the “philosophy” of the O’s and international signings. I tend to agree, especially since the comment was vague about whether “philosophy” meant anything more than “strategy” 2:47 Dan Szymborski: But here’s the thing, let’s say it *is* pure philosophy and the O’s don’t want to exploit players. 2:47 Dan Szymborski: Why don’t they carry that philosophy to other things? 2:48 Dan Szymborski: Ohtani at least gets to be part of the CBA; why don’t the O’s have the same qualms about exploiting minor leaguers? They don’t pay above the prevailing minor league crap wages. 2:48 Dan Szymborski: Why do the O’s participate in the draft? Why not give Machado more than 500K a year in his first three? 2:48 Babe Lincoln: What percent of the time do you spell your name wrong when you type it? When you hand write it? 2:49 Dan Szymborski: About 5% of the time. I do Syzmborski a lot. 2:49 Dan Szymborski: I type 130 wpm, so that’s going to be a tough one. 2:49 Dan Szymborski: I’ve never spelled it wrong writing it. I don’t *write* 130 wpm 2:49 Dan Szymborski: I think i write 130 words per year. 2:49 Miranda: Filia played RF in the AFL and apparently impressed… 2:49 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think a hitter at least should get on the radar solely for any AFL stint 2:49 Uncleweez: Are you as high on Robert Stephenson’s late-season surge as Eno? Think that 2-breaking ball mix can translate to results? 2:49 Dan Szymborski: I’m skeptical 2:49 Dmitry: Why trade headley for nothimg, just to spend prospects on a solarte type? 2:50 Dan Szymborski: Luxury tax. 2:50 Erik: Ohtani’s projections aren’t low, but Dinelson Lamet + Maikel Franco is certainly less than he’s been hyped up to be. 2:50 Dan Szymborski: ZiPS think he’s a better pitcher than Lamet and a better hitter than Franco. 2:50 Chris: What sort of bizarro-world odds are ’15’? Units, man! 2:50 Dan Szymborski: %? I don’t remember the question. 2:50 toki: Would Donaldson make a good cricket player? 2:51 Dan Szymborski: I don’t know much about cricket. It’s mostly something I see in Monty Python sketches. 2:52 Angels: BEst nicname for Ohtani? 2:52 Dan Szymborski: Call him L-Rod. That it’s nonsensical makes it work. 2:52 Rhendricks: What type of return would Piscotty net? 2:52 Dan Szymborski: A minor one. 2:52 tb.25: Have you ever done machine learning to compare players or statistics, and if so, which algorithms? 2:52 Dan Szymborski: I don’t use machine learning. 2:52 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the dataset is particularly robust. 2:53 Dan Szymborski: I think overtraining is a real concern in machine learning algorithms with baseball stuff. 2:54 Pip: Best guess as to who the nats go at for their last rotation spot? 2:55 Dan Szymborski: I think they go low-key. The division’s not likely to be hard yet in 2018 and with a top-heavy rotation, they aren’t really incentivized to pay a lot for a playoff pitcher. And with some pretty damn big free agencies coming up, don’t want too many big ticket purchaes 2:55 Mister Puppy : At what point does Angelos realize that alienating the majority of the fan base isn’t worth some half assed “philosophy”? 2:56 Dan Szymborski: George RR Martin will write the last two books before that happens. 2:56 ChiSox2020: can you tell us the ZIPS for Avi Garcia yet? Do you see anyone trading for him? 2:56 Dan Szymborski: Imagine your projection for Avi. Now make it much worse. 2:56 Brandon: One difference from the O’s point of view is there isn’t some third party profiting from the underpayment of minor leaguers and the loss of flexibility for draftees. It’s not to say there is no inconsistency there, but it would be worse if Machado only got 500K, but the O’s had to pay the owner of some minor league team some larger amount of money for the right to talk to him about the preset lower wage. Plus that system has just been around so long that it feels more like background than some novel thing to dislike. 2:56 Dan Szymborski: It would be a weird philosophy to be against exploiting players mainly only when you don’t get to do it. 2:56 Julio Pepper: Now that you’ve renounced your Orioles citizenship, mind telling us who you’ll be rooting for? I’m partial to the Twins if you’re looking for a Switzerland. 2:57 Dan Szymborski: I don’t have to have one team that I pull for! 2:57 Tom: What would be the flaw in teams offering a “dual-option” contract? Not a mutual option, per se. Say there’s a team option of $30 million for a player, but a player option for $20 for the same year. Player benefits from guaranteed floor, or choice to become a FA. Team has guarantee that they can have the player at $30 if they choose. Thoughts? 2:57 Dan Szymborski: They do have mutual options. 2:57 Dan Szymborski: At different prices. 2:59 toki: Any upcoming games that you are hyped about? 2:59 Dan Szymborski: Romancing SaGa 2 is getting a Windows release! 3:00 dakota mckee: Do the Mets have enough bullets to go after Christian Yelich? 3:00 tb.25: What about machine learning for clustering or similarity scores? What is your preferred method of similarity scoring? 3:01 Dan Szymborski: I love me some Mahalanobis distance. I do use cluster analysis, though no machine learning. 3:01 greg: Cat update please! 3:01 Dan Szymborski: Oops, I didn’t hit enter previous answer! 3:01 Dan Szymborski: And went over it 3:01 Dan Szymborski: The Mets *could* add Yelich, but I don’t think it’s happening. 3:02 Dan Szymborski: I last saw Pandora in the living room sleeping, Galileo was just here whining for dinner, and I haven’t seen Mercutio since a UPS driving up the street scared him and he hid in his coward hiding place 3:02 Stephen: Dan, how would you suggest O’s fans get through what will surely be a rough patch, outside of swearing off the team? 3:02 Dan Szymborski: Alcohol. 3:02 Boob Pollardo: What makes more sense for the Cubs: trading for Salazar or signing Cobb? 3:03 Dan Szymborski: Signing Cobb. I think Salazar rumors are more excited writers than actual fire. 3:03 toki: what are you currently playing? 3:03 Dan Szymborski: BaseballChat! 3:04 Dan Szymborski: Hearthstone right now since I haven’ tcompleted all the dungeon run classes. 3:04 Magic 8 Ball: Has any NL team measurably improved its playoff chances this winter? My sources say “No.” 3:04 Dan Szymborski: It’s pretty early! 3:04 Roadhog: dan just join Eno and become an A’s fan. it’s where all the cool kids are, and you get to watch a whole lot of Matt Chapman 3:04 Dan Szymborski: It feels too trendy. 3:04 Dan Szymborski: If I didn’t become an A’s fan when Moneyball made all of us employable, it seems a little weird to not do so until 2017 3:05 Dan Szymborski: OK guys, gotta go. Have some upcoming radio stuff and I need to feed the cats first so I don’t have two of them meowing while I’m on the air. Which the bastards will do. 3:05 Dan Szymborski: Not sure if anyone else is coming? Maybe count to 20 and then turn off the lights? 3:06 Dan Szymborski: Maybe Eno’s still peeing. 3:07 Dan Szymborski: Like now he’s peeing in a sink because it’s been going for an hour and there’s a team of paramedics trying to figure out how it’s physically possible for someone to pee 50 gallons 3:07 Dan Szymborski: Or he got a bite to eat. One of those. 3:07 Dan Szymborski: OK, I’m told to close it up. 3:08 Dan Szymborski: We’ll leave it on that note, with Eno urination fan fiction.