World Series Game 3 Chat

October 23, 2020

8:01	Tony Wolfe: Hi everybody, Jay and I are excited to spend Game 3 hanging out with you all. First pitch is in just a few minutes.

8:02	Jay Jaffe: Good evening and welcome to the chat! I’m popping in for a few minutes here but i’ll have to duck out soon t help put the kiddo to bed.

8:02	Fire Ken Tremendous: Looks like beating Charlie Morton might be the best shot at revenge against the 2017 Astros that the Dodgers will ever get

8:03	Miguel: If Tampa Bay kept a payroll similar to the Dodgers, do you think they would create a better team than the Dodgers?

8:03	Jay Jaffe: It’s an odd coincidence that one of those Astros is again facing the Dodgers in the World Series. Morton was the guy who closed out Game 7 with four innings of one-run ball. He obviously wasn’t hitting but he’s said he was aware of the trash can banging

8:04	Jay Jaffe: https://www.mlb.com/news/charlie-morton-on-astros-sign-stealing

8:04	Tony Wolfe: Spending money and spending it on the right guys are two different things. You can aspire to spend the way the Dodgers do, but there are only so many Mookie Betts in the world to hand out $300+ million contracts to

8:05	TheStranger: Is it just me, or did it really feel like that off day interrupted the series compared to earlier rounds?

8:05	Jay Jaffe: It’s funny what we get used to through repetition. I do think the lack of off days added a certain strategic element to the earlier series, but like just about every other pandemic-related innovation, I’d as soon scrap it and get back to “normal” next year.

8:06	Guest: Buehler vs. Morton Who do you think pitches better tonight?

8:06	Tony Wolfe: I’ll take Morton, though who knows how long Cash will let him go

8:07	Lzfreak: Can we get a prediction poll?

8:07	Tony Wolfe: Who Wins Game 3? Rays (23.7% \| 14 votes) Dodgers (76.2% \| 45 votes) Total Votes: 59

8:07	Tony Wolfe: have at it!

8:07	Dodger Fan: Let’s do this

8:08	Eel Ffilc: Not a school night= east coast FG crew

8:08	Jay Jaffe: It’s true! At least on my end.

8:08	Jay Jaffe: I’ll go with Buehler in the question of who pitches better tonight. Been so impressed with his ability to focus in big games.

8:09	LarryTheBerry: Why Barnes tonight?

8:09	Tony Wolfe: LA Times covered this today: https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2020-10-22/dodgers-austin…

8:09	Mad Joe-Don: Any chance we see neutral sites in future playoffs?

8:09	Jay Jaffe: Good lord I hope not but you know Rob Manfred is salivating over the possibility, which is all the more reason to hate it to death. It would suck if teams didn’t get to play the World Series in their own ballparks

8:10	Tony Wolfe: Neutral sites for MLB is incredibly unfriendly to fans of the participating teams. Asking people to travel for a neutral site series is so much tougher than asking them to go to like, the Rose Bowl for one night

8:11	LarryTheBerry: Wow great play

8:11	Guest: Choi is so fun!

8:11	Dodger Fan: Choi!

8:11	Tony Wolfe: most flexible man in baseball!

8:12	tryingtoyoga: been trying to limber up with yoga this year…. i’m nowhere close to mr Choi

8:12	Eel Ffilc: As far as picks go, that’s in the top percentile

8:14	Tony Wolfe: Justin Turner yanks a solo homer to left, and the Dodgers are on the board three batters in, 1-0.

8:14	Dodger Fan: DING DONG

8:14	Dave Roberts: Really turned on that one

8:15	Sam: Weird pitch sequence there, two off speed pitches up in the zone followed by the homer

8:16	Tony Wolfe: Four man outfield for Muncy!

8:17	lmb2020: will nick anderson give up a run tonight?

8:17	Tony Wolfe: would be a sixth-straight game giving up a run if he does. wonder what the record for that is as a reliever in one postseason

8:18	Baseball Eating: is that 86-89mph thing morton throws a cutter?

8:18	Tony Wolfe: it is

8:22	sma: buehler’s got some tight pants

8:22	Tony Wolfe: not the time or place, michael!

8:23

Jay Jaffe: Jumping back in for a moment to give today’s new FanGraphs Audio podcast a plug if you’re looking for some alternative audio tonight or just something to stick in your ear holes in the near future, as both Tony and I had spots on it. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-a-mid-series-assessment/ Tony discussed the Dodgers with Ben Clemens while I discussed Randy Arozarena and the Rays with Eric Longenhagen

8:23	Dodger Fan: Buehler’s looking good to my eyes.

8:24	Tony Wolfe: Really nice looking first for Buehler.

8:24	JoeBuck: Aren’t we all happy Arod isn’t commenting the World Series?

8:25	Tony Wolfe: if you actually think smoltz is demonstrably better? sure!

8:25	Dodger Fan: ARod > Smoltz

8:26	rube waddell: Now that Smoltz mentioned Beuhler’s windup as a classic style, it really looks a lot like Schilling’s, never made that connection before

8:26	LarryTheBerry: I’m going to end up jinxing this, but I feel like the Rays could use less Meadows ABs

8:27	Tony Wolfe: sticking with Lowe worked out the other night

8:27	Tony Wolfe: but yeah, Meadows has had a really tough month

8:27	ken m: bring back tim mccarver

8:28	Baseball Eating: ARod is bad but sometimes really funny John Smoltz is just kind of tiring

8:28	Sam: I’m a Meadows believer, guys are cold until they aren’t a lot of the time

8:29	Fire Ken Tremendous: I’m a meadows believer. Just love to see a grassy clearing in the middle of the woods.

8:30	Dodger Fan: Ohhhh man that curve

8:34	Noah: Anyone else think Rays should be starting Yandy? Their lineup once you get past Choi really starts to drop off.

8:35	Tony Wolfe: It is a bit surprising. Maybe facing a right-handed starter has an effect, but he’s looked like a better DH option than Meadows

8:35	Eel Ffilc: Learned today the Dodgers are wearing their alternate uniforms (primary have Los Angeles, not Dodgers), and the Rays have no uniform that has “Tampa Bay” or “Tampa” on it. A bit unique for both teams compared to the rest of the league

8:36	Nick: Do you guys like Joe Buck more (dislike Joe Buck less?) when calling football or baseball?

8:36	Tony Wolfe: he’s more synonymous with football than baseball to me, but I think he’s also been more pearl-clutchy when covering football

8:36	Tony Wolfe: Either way, I actually like Joe Buck quite a bit

8:37	Bunk: I think Joe Buck is better at football than baseball.

8:37	Tony Wolfe: Buehler is rolling early.

8:37	BettsBellingerCaruso: Jesus that 3 pitch strikeout was naaaaaaaasty

8:38	Sam: Diaz had a -7.9 average launch angle this year, that seems pretty weird right? and also not good haha

8:38	Dodger Fan: That was above his head and he swung at it!

8:39	LarryTheBerry: He doesn’t even need breaking balls yet

8:39	Dave Roberts: Buck has gotten a lot better as he’s chilled out over the years

8:39	Jay Jaffe: Joe Buck isn’t the problem with the Fox booth.

8:41	SteveL: Fangraphs should do a piece on the 4 man OF

8:41	Jay Jaffe: Ben Clemens wrote about it this summer https://blogs.fangraphs.com/four-man-outfields-gone-wild/

8:41	Tony Wolfe: Céspedes Family BBQ @CespedesBBQ This is “playing MLB The Show on it’s easiest mode against your friend who has never played a baseball video game” level pitching from Buehler right now 24 Oct 2020

8:42	Mad Joe-Don: Pairing Buck with a humorless grump doesn’t seem ideal.

8:42	Mark Grant: Here’s an idea: the home broadcast team gets to “cameo” broadcast 1 game during each major playoff series.

8:43	Jay Jaffe: Did anybody see Buck in Brockmire? He was pretty funny playing himself in a recurring role

8:43	Tony Wolfe: Having Davis do Game 7 was great

8:43	Jay Jaffe: That felt like it was heaven sent

8:43	Jay Jaffe: Davis is outstanding

8:43	Tony Wolfe: damn, I really need to pick brockmire back up, I stopped after a few episodes but really enjoyed what I saw

8:43	Jay Jaffe: It’s filthy and dark and hilarious

8:43	Tony Wolfe: Hank Azaria is just tremendous

8:43	BettsBellingerCaruso: Morton is painting too

8:44	Dodger Fan: Biased, but I love Joe and Orel so much.

8:44	Jay Jaffe: I was a college freshman when the Dodgers won the World Series in 1988. Watching Orel that fall was magical. He was superhuman.

8:46	rube waddell: Always surprised at how much Seager chokes up on the bat, wonder why

8:46	sadtrombone: Hersheiser in 88 was one of the all-time great pitching runs.

8:47	Deathstar Graterol: Whatever Seager is doing with the bat, it’s working

8:48	Mark Grant: Petition to mic up the bat boys in each respective dugout to get some insider stories on the players instead of canned/forced interviews with players and managers.

8:48	Tony Wolfe: Man those kids would be soooo nervous to do that

8:48	Jay Jaffe: That… would be a liability

8:50	Eel Ffilc: If the Rays really decline Morton’s option, what do you think he gets?

8:51	Jay Jaffe: Given his age I’d think 2 + option in the $35 mil range.

8:51	Adam: Any way to see how hitters perform against pitches over a certain velocity? Turner hit a HR on Morton’s fastball, but it seems like he has a problem with velocity

8:51	Tony Wolfe: If I did this right…

8:51	Tony Wolfe: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR…

8:52	Tony Wolfe: Statcast’s search function allows you to sort a bunch of offensive numbers within a pitch velocity parameter

8:52	Tony Wolfe: That link should be wOBA against pitches 96mph or higher

8:53	Jay Jaffe: Two-run single for Max Muncy and the Dodgers now lead 3-0.

8:53	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Tough breaks for Morton, who’s really not pitching badly.

8:54	Jay Jaffe: That Muncy hit was 107.6 off the bat, whew

8:55	Dave Roberts: Remember when Brad Penny bet a bat boy he couldn’t drink a gallon milk in an hour and the kid ended up throwing up on the field?

8:55	Jay Jaffe: as somebody who hated drinking milk and gets grossed out even watching my daughter do it, that story makes me gag

8:56	Adam: Turner is a FA after the season, right? What type of contract does he get?

8:56	Tony Wolfe: You tell us! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2020-21-ballot-2-of…

8:56	Jay Jaffe: I was wondering that. I’m writing the Turner capsule

8:57	Jay Jaffe: He had a .553 xSLG or therebouts despite slugging just .460

8:56	Simon: .890 XBA! very lucky

8:57	Mark Grant: Lol damn. My online “live” feed is deflated by a minute, so I saw that update before it happened. Gotta love technology

8:57	Jay Jaffe: we’ll try not to jump the gun on the updates

8:57	Tony Wolfe: I’m pretty comfortable saying Turner could get a 2-3 year deal

8:57	Jay Jaffe: we

8:58	Jay Jaffe: The thing about Turner is that his defense is declining (though he’s had some good plays in the postseason). I think he needs to be a part-time DH. Wouldn’t surprise me if he stays with LA

8:59	Jay Jaffe: Also to preserve his legs.

9:00	Fire Ken Tremendous: Is Seager at 3rd and Lux at SS the likely Dodger defense in the future?

9:00	Jay Jaffe: I think Lux’s throwing is enough of a question mark that SS is unlikely

9:00	Tony Wolfe: I don’t think Lux is a SS

9:00	Tony Wolfe: yeah, what Jay said

9:01	CJ: Fun trivia – there was a pretty famous 1st baseman in KBO when it started who was famous for stretching as Choi did. I grew up in Korea, and thought all good 1st basemen is supposed to do that.

9:01	Jay Jaffe: Longer term, i do thing Seager is bound for 3B but not necessarily in 2021

9:02	Jay Jaffe: Who was it, CJ? We are at least minimally conversant in KBO history here

9:02	MC: 2/$30m for Turner?

9:02	Jay Jaffe: That sounds about right

9:03	CJ: 신경식(Shin Kyung-Shik), who played for OB (Now Doosan) Bears

9:04	Tony Wolfe: good timing, there’s a nice pick by turner

9:04	Jay Jaffe: wow and there’s Turner with the slick defense

9:04	Jay Jaffe: jinx

9:05	Fire Ken Tremendous: Better Choi: Hee-seop or Ji-man?

9:05	Jay Jaffe: They’re pretty close, but Ji-Man is the one who still has an MLB job so he’ll probably win out.

9:06	Jay Jaffe: Hee-Seop Choi went back to South Korea and had some big seasons in the KBO. He was still playing as recently as 2015

9:07	Noah: Me thinks Turner will get more money than 2/30

9:07	Guest: Is it recency bias/big play memory or has LAD defense been quite good this postseason?

9:07	Bunk: The Turner Buehler show tonight!

9:07	circler: I guess his defence is still kinda there huh

9:07	JT<3: if Seager were to go to 3B next year would Kike or Taylor be decent at SS?

9:08	Tony Wolfe: Dodgers signing Andrelton Simmons to a cushion deal could be fun tbh

9:08	Tony Wolfe: But like Jay said, I don’t think Seager is moving next year

9:09	Mike: Hernandez is also a free agent but Taylor is a credible shortstop

9:10	Etwin: Do the Dodgers offer Joc a QO after his play this year ? If not the Astros look like a likely landing spot as a Reddick replacement

9:10	Jay Jaffe: Taylor I think is the better SS of the two but has a -4.6 UZR/150 for his career. I don’t think he’d be great there over a full season

9:10	Tony Wolfe: I would be surprised to see Joc get a QO

9:10

CJ:

9:10	Jay Jaffe: Very nice!

9:11	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Great googly moogly, Choi is nimble.

9:12	Smiling Politely: I’m…perfectly fine with that call with Barnes up?

9:12	Jay Jaffe: Dodgers score again on singles by Pederson and Bellinger and then a sac bunt by Barnes… they said it’s just the 3rd sac hit of the season but I don’t even remember seeing either of the others.

9:12	sadtrombone: LAD defense is pretty dang good because they put guys in good positions. Which is remarkable because at least in the infield those guys are mostly a bit below average for where they are.

9:13	Jay Jaffe: Yes it’s worth remembering that UZR doesn’t account for shifting and the Dodgers do a lot of it.

9:12	GoldStar: Small ball!

9:12	sadtrombone: This, uh, does not seem to be going well for the Rays.

9:13	Mad Joe-Don: Even lead! Dodgers are toast.

9:15	LarryTheBerry: I think Morton is actually pitching ok, but how long do you think he has left?

9:15	Jay Jaffe: He’s been in the zone a lot and the Dodgers have some hard-hit balls. they haven’t chased many of his pitches that have been outside the zone

9:15	Lzfreak: Who is first out of the pen for TB?

9:15	Tony Wolfe: Thompson maybe?

9:16	Jay Jaffe: And Mookie plates another one.

9:16	sadtrombone: Still not going well for the Rays.

9:16	kevinthecomic: Nice close up of Betts really bringing those hands in to connect on that inside pitch

9:17	Lzfreak: We really should get a taco per steal

9:18	Tony Wolfe: more ji-man choi doing cool stuff

9:18	Jay Jaffe: whoa, great defensive play by Choi to go skyward to snag a high throw and then tag Seager

9:18	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: When the Rays go to the pen, keep an eye out for Sherriff as a junk timer. If he faced Pederson, it’d probably be the first Jewish pitcher-batter matchup in WS history. Trivia! https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/sports/articles/world-series-jew-vs…

9:18	Smiling Politely: Choi is something!

9:20	Mike: I always wonder why guys don’t slide into first when they see the 1b jump like that it seems like it would evade a lot of those swipe tag plays

9:20	Tony Wolfe: think you’re grossly underestimating the reaction time required to do that mid-sprint

9:21	sadtrombone: I don’t think that Snell was great or anything a couple nights ago but I do think the Dodgers struggle a bit more with the lefties.

9:22	Jay Jaffe: Snell was filthy. He was in the zone a lot more than usual and the Dodgers just couldn’t do anything with it aside from the Taylor solo HR. that said, you’re correct that the Dodgers are stronger vs righties (126 wRC+ this year) than lefties (113)

9:21	Mike: Probably

9:22	Lzfreak: If Buehler takes a no hitter deep, how many pitches will he get?

9:23	Mike: The Dodgers were 11-4 vs lefty starters this year, what they struggle with, or at least do worse against, are guys who get their swing and miss inside the strike zone instead of on chase pitches

9:23	Tony Wolfe: no-hitter or not, I think Buehler’s combination of stuff and lead right now means he’ll get a pretty long leash

9:26	Jay Jaffe: Some loud contact there off Buehler but still bupkis for the Rays.

9:27	Adam: Is Randy for real for real?

9:28	Jay Jaffe: There’s reason to think so, as a top-40ish prospect and a guy who could make some All-Star teams given his current tools and skills. Go check what Eric had to say about him on today’s podcast.

9:28	Tony Wolfe: jeff passan voice

9:28	Dodger Fan: Aaaaaaaaa-rozarena

9:29	Mike: Walker doesn’t traditionally excel in soft contact, he tends to have that Cole/Verlander/Hader profile of very rarely giving up contact but having it frequently be spanked

9:29	Jay Jaffe: to your point, the average exit velo on the balls they’ve put into play against Buehler is 94.0 mph

9:33

Jay Jaffe:

Jayson Stark

@jaysonst

I’m always fascinated by Kevin Cash’s pitching decisions.

Last Saturday, Charlie Morton had 66 pitches and a 2-hit shutout in the 6th – and Cash took him out.

Tonight, he was down 5-0 with 78 pitches through the 4th – and got left in.

Much quicker hook when Cash has a lead.

24 Oct 2020

9:33	Jay Jaffe: but there he goes

9:34	Tony Wolfe: jay, you drinking anything fun tonight?

9:36	Jay Jaffe: right now just a mixture of grapefruit juice and seltzer (my go-to) but I was just thinking about cracking a beer.

9:36	Dodger Fan: Water is an underrated drink.

9:37	Jay Jaffe: Is it time for Jay to crack a beer Yes (27.2% \| 12 votes) Most definitely (43.1% \| 19 votes) Sure thing (29.5% \| 13 votes) Total Votes: 44

9:38	Tony Wolfe: looooool

9:38	Mike: Dodgers have a chance to be up 2-1 in this series without any of their 3 or 4 best relievers having appeared in a game

9:38	Tony Wolfe: whole lotta baseball left tonight, but that is certainly possible

9:38	Tony Wolfe: and no small thing with two straight days of games following this one

9:38	Dodger Fan: That was an awesome arm angle graphic

9:39	Nicklas F: You misses the option ”hell Yeah!”

9:39	Jay Jaffe: the people have spoken. At the half-inning I shall open a beer.

9:41	plsGame7: That was a trippy arm angle graphic. and also very effective, I’d be so crossed up as a hitter

9:41	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Ordinarily I hate the stupid postseason-only camera angles, but that panning shot along the netting where you see the entire field is so cool. Lets you appreciate the whole nine guys.

9:41	Jay Jaffe: Katie Sharp @ktsharp Dodgers are first team with an RBI sac bunt in a World Series game since Rays in 2008 (Game 2) 24 Oct 2020

9:41	Jay Jaffe: See, even the analytics-driven teams do it!

9:42	Mike: Bunting with a hitter as bad as Barnes for a run seems like one of the best sac bunts imaginable

9:44	Jay Jaffe: The people have spoken and I have gone to the refrigerator for a Singlecut Grunge: https://singlecut.com/beer/grunge-ddh-iipa-2/

9:45	Jay Jaffe: Haven’t tried this, it was in a “Dealer’s Choice” case chosen by the brewery, which is one of my favorites in NYC.

9:45	Kwah: The real reason Babe Ruth is the most productive Hall Of Famer of all time is because he excelled in Jaffe’s “drank a lot of beers” metric.

9:46	Jay Jaffe: Actually it was his Herculean hot dog consumption

9:46	Jay Jaffe: He’s not only #1 in JAWS, he’s #1 in DAWGS

9:47	Tony Wolfe: I’ve got a Rhinegeist Truth next to me. It shall be Cincinnati’s only contribution to this World Series

9:47	Mike: Postseason Walker F Buehler is the most fun I’ve had watching someone pitch since peak Kershaw

9:47	Nate: He only ate all the hot dogs to wash down the beer

9:48	Jay Jaffe: And there’s the Rays’ first hit of the game, a double down the line by Manny Margot

9:49	Nicklas F: Any one know what pitch count Bueler can manage and when was the last time a perfect game was performed in a World Series?

9:49	Jay Jaffe: There’s only been the one perfect game in a World Series, by Don Larsen in 1956.

9:50	Tony Wolfe: Margot is having a snazzy-as-hell postseason. Had a .962 OPS entering tonight, after not reaching a .700 OPS in the last three seasons.

9:50	Jay Jaffe: Wrote a bit about Larsen and that game when he passed in early January https://blogs.fangraphs.com/imperfect-but-for-one-afternoon-don-larsen…

9:50	Mike: 100ish is gonna be Buehlers max. He’s barely reached 100 this year due to the blisters but even in fully healthy seasons he’s only been allowed to 110-115 when the Dodgers season is on the line.

9:50	Jay Jaffe: Mike is saving me the trouble of typing all that stuff!

9:52	Bb: Jay, does Dusty Baker get into the HOF without a WS title?

9:52	Jay Jaffe: I’m not so sure, but then I don’t see why Lou Piniella (1 pennant, 1 title) has gotten so close via the Era Committee while Jim Leyland (3 pennants, 1 title) hasn’t even come up for a vote.

9:55	Jay Jaffe: And there goes the shutout as Adames doubles in Margot on a 2-strike pitch

9:55	Tony Wolfe: I wonder if people who think the Rays aren’t fun just don’t know Willy Adames exists

9:56	Mike: Hodges as a player and Baker as a manager both definitely deserve discussion and when the other part of their career is also significant achievement it seems like a no brainer to consider both

9:56	Dodger Fan: Baker invented the high-five, right? Put him in the hall for that.

9:57	Jay Jaffe: Glenn Burke invented the High Five, Baker was the recipient

9:57	Jay Jaffe: I see the argument on composite contribution but I’m … not entirely convinced on either of those guys. I’m a notorious low man on Hodges and it probably cost me something in terms of reaching geezers of a certain age with my book

9:58	Jay Jaffe: composite contribution is a guy like Torre, who was borderline HOF as a player and won the four championships. Baker wasn’t in his class as a player.

9:59	Mike: Hodges managerial career less significant than Baker’s playing career but the Miracle Mets are a major historical baseball thing

9:59	Jay Jaffe: One has to attach mega-importance to the Mets’ win to get Hodges over the line, unfortunately it’s not as though the Mets did much with him at the helm other than that.