World Series Game 3 Chat

8:01
Tony Wolfe: Hi everybody, Jay and I are excited to spend Game 3 hanging out with you all. First pitch is in just a few minutes.

8:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good evening and welcome to the chat! I’m popping in for a few minutes here but i’ll have to duck out soon t help put the kiddo to bed.

8:02
Fire Ken Tremendous: Looks like beating Charlie Morton might be the best shot at revenge against the 2017 Astros that the Dodgers will ever get

8:03
Miguel: If Tampa Bay kept a payroll similar to the Dodgers, do you think they would create a better  team than the Dodgers?

8:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s an odd coincidence that one of those Astros is again facing the Dodgers in the World Series. Morton was the guy who closed out Game 7 with four innings of one-run ball. He obviously wasn’t hitting but he’s said he was aware of the trash can banging

8:04
Tony Wolfe: Spending money and spending it on the right guys are two different things. You can aspire to spend the way the Dodgers do, but there are only so many Mookie Betts in the world to hand out $300+ million contracts to

8:05
TheStranger: Is it just me, or did it really feel like that off day interrupted the series compared to earlier rounds?

8:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s funny what we get used to through repetition. I do think the lack of off days added a certain strategic element to the earlier series, but like just about every other pandemic-related innovation, I’d as soon scrap it and get back to “normal” next year.

8:06
Guest: Buehler vs. Morton

Who do you think pitches better tonight?

8:06
Tony Wolfe: I’ll take Morton, though who knows how long Cash will let him go

8:07
Lzfreak: Can we get a prediction poll?

8:07
Tony Wolfe:

Who Wins Game 3?

Rays (23.7% | 14 votes)
 
Dodgers (76.2% | 45 votes)
 

Total Votes: 59
8:07
Tony Wolfe: have at it!

8:07
Dodger Fan: Let’s do this

8:08
Eel Ffilc: Not a school night= east coast FG crew

8:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s true! At least on my end.

8:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’ll go with Buehler in the question of who pitches better tonight. Been so impressed with his ability to focus in big games.

8:09
LarryTheBerry: Why Barnes tonight?

8:09
Mad Joe-Don: Any chance we see neutral sites in future playoffs?

8:09
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good lord I hope not but you know Rob Manfred is salivating over the possibility, which is all the more reason to hate it to death. It would suck if teams didn’t get to play the World Series in their own ballparks

8:10
Tony Wolfe: Neutral sites for MLB is incredibly unfriendly to fans of the participating teams. Asking people to travel for a neutral site series is so much tougher than asking them to go to like, the Rose Bowl for one night

8:11
LarryTheBerry: Wow great play

8:11
Guest: Choi is so fun!

8:11
Dodger Fan: Choi!

8:11
Tony Wolfe: most flexible man in baseball!

8:12
tryingtoyoga: been trying to limber up with yoga this year…. i’m nowhere close to mr Choi

8:12
Eel Ffilc: As far as picks go, that’s in the top percentile

8:14
Tony Wolfe: Justin Turner yanks a solo homer to left, and the Dodgers are on the board three batters in, 1-0.

8:14
Dodger Fan: DING DONG

8:14
Dave Roberts: Really turned on that one

8:15
Sam: Weird pitch sequence there, two off speed pitches up in the zone followed by the homer

8:16
Tony Wolfe: Four man outfield for Muncy!

8:17
lmb2020: will nick anderson give up a run tonight?

8:17
Tony Wolfe: would be a sixth-straight game giving up a run if he does. wonder what the record for that is as a reliever in one postseason

8:18
Baseball Eating: is that 86-89mph thing morton throws a cutter?

8:18
Tony Wolfe: it is

8:22
sma: buehler’s got some tight pants

8:22
Tony Wolfe: not the time or place, michael!

8:23
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Jumping back in for a moment to give today’s new FanGraphs Audio podcast a plug if you’re looking for some alternative audio tonight or just something to stick in your ear holes in the near future, as both Tony and I had spots on it. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-a-mid-series-assessment/ Tony discussed the Dodgers with Ben Clemens while I discussed Randy Arozarena and the Rays with Eric Longenhagen

8:23
Dodger Fan: Buehler’s looking good to my eyes.

8:24
Tony Wolfe: Really nice looking first for Buehler.

8:24
JoeBuck: Aren’t we all happy Arod isn’t commenting the World Series?

8:25
Tony Wolfe: if you actually think smoltz is demonstrably better? sure!

8:25
Dodger Fan: ARod > Smoltz

8:26
rube waddell: Now that Smoltz mentioned Beuhler’s windup as a classic style, it really looks a lot like Schilling’s, never made that connection before

8:26
LarryTheBerry: I’m going to end up jinxing this, but I feel like the Rays could use less Meadows ABs

8:27
Tony Wolfe: sticking with Lowe worked out the other night

8:27
Tony Wolfe: but yeah, Meadows has had a really tough month

8:27
ken m: bring back tim mccarver

8:28
Baseball Eating: ARod is bad but sometimes really funny John Smoltz is just kind of tiring

8:28
Sam: I’m a Meadows believer, guys are cold until they aren’t a lot of the time

8:29
Fire Ken Tremendous: I’m a meadows believer. Just love to see a grassy clearing in the middle of the woods.

8:30
Dodger Fan: Ohhhh man that curve

8:34
Noah: Anyone else think Rays should be starting Yandy?  Their lineup once you get past Choi really starts to drop off.

8:35
Tony Wolfe: It is a bit surprising. Maybe facing a right-handed starter has an effect, but he’s looked like a better DH option than Meadows

8:35
Eel Ffilc: Learned today the Dodgers are wearing their alternate uniforms (primary have Los Angeles, not Dodgers), and the Rays have no uniform that has “Tampa Bay” or “Tampa” on it. A bit unique for both teams compared to the rest of the league

8:36
Nick: Do you guys like Joe Buck more (dislike Joe Buck less?) when calling football or baseball?

8:36
Tony Wolfe: he’s more synonymous with football than baseball to me, but I think he’s also been more pearl-clutchy when covering football

8:36
Tony Wolfe: Either way, I actually like Joe Buck quite a bit

8:37
Bunk: I think Joe Buck is better at football than baseball.

8:37
Tony Wolfe: Buehler is rolling early.

8:37
BettsBellingerCaruso: Jesus that 3 pitch strikeout was naaaaaaaasty

8:38
Sam: Diaz had a -7.9 average launch angle this year, that seems pretty weird right? and also not good haha

8:38
Dodger Fan: That was above his head and he swung at it!

8:39
LarryTheBerry: He doesn’t even need breaking balls yet

8:39
Dave Roberts: Buck has gotten a lot better as he’s chilled out over the years

8:39
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Joe Buck isn’t the problem with the Fox booth.

8:41
SteveL: Fangraphs should do a piece on the 4 man OF

8:41
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Ben Clemens wrote about it this summer https://blogs.fangraphs.com/four-man-outfields-gone-wild/

8:41
Tony Wolfe:

This is “playing MLB The Show on it’s easiest mode against your friend who has never played a baseball video game” level pitching from Buehler right now
24 Oct 2020
8:42
Mad Joe-Don: Pairing Buck with a humorless grump doesn’t seem ideal.

8:42
Mark Grant: Here’s an idea: the home broadcast team gets to “cameo” broadcast 1 game during each major playoff series.

8:43
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Did anybody see Buck in Brockmire? He was pretty funny playing himself in a recurring role

8:43
Tony Wolfe: Having Davis do Game 7 was great

8:43
Avatar Jay Jaffe: That felt like it was heaven sent

8:43
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Davis is outstanding

8:43
Tony Wolfe: damn, I really need to pick brockmire back up, I stopped after a few episodes but really enjoyed what I saw

8:43
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s filthy and dark and hilarious

8:43
Tony Wolfe: Hank Azaria is just tremendous

8:43
BettsBellingerCaruso: Morton is painting too

8:44
Dodger Fan: Biased, but I love Joe and Orel so much.

8:44
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I was a college freshman when the Dodgers won the World Series in 1988. Watching Orel that fall was magical. He was superhuman.

8:46
rube waddell: Always surprised at how much Seager chokes up on the bat, wonder why

8:46
sadtrombone: Hersheiser in 88 was one of the all-time great pitching runs.

8:47
Deathstar Graterol: Whatever Seager is doing with the bat, it’s working

8:48
Mark Grant: Petition to mic up the bat boys in each respective dugout to get some insider stories on the players instead of canned/forced interviews with players and managers.

8:48
Tony Wolfe: Man those kids would be soooo nervous to do that

8:48
Avatar Jay Jaffe: That… would be a liability

8:50
Eel Ffilc: If the Rays really decline Morton’s option, what do you think he gets?

8:51
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Given his age I’d think 2 + option in the $35 mil range.

8:51
Adam: Any way to see how hitters perform against pitches over a certain velocity? Turner hit a HR on Morton’s fastball, but it seems like he has a problem with velocity

8:51
Tony Wolfe: If I did this right…

8:52
Tony Wolfe: Statcast’s search function allows you to sort a bunch of offensive numbers within a pitch velocity parameter

8:52
Tony Wolfe: That link should be wOBA against pitches 96mph or higher

8:53
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Two-run single for Max Muncy and the Dodgers now lead 3-0.

8:53
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Tough breaks for Morton, who’s really not pitching badly.

8:54
Avatar Jay Jaffe: That Muncy hit was 107.6 off the bat, whew

8:55
Dave Roberts: Remember when Brad Penny bet a bat boy he couldn’t drink a gallon milk in an hour and the kid ended up throwing up on the field?

8:55
Avatar Jay Jaffe: as somebody who hated drinking milk and gets grossed out even watching my daughter do it, that story makes me gag

8:56
Adam: Turner is a FA after the season, right? What type of contract does he get?

8:56
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I was wondering that. I’m writing the Turner capsule

8:57
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He had a .553 xSLG or therebouts despite slugging just .460

8:56
Simon: .890 XBA! very lucky

8:57
Mark Grant: Lol damn. My online “live” feed is deflated by a minute, so I saw that update before it happened. Gotta love technology

8:57
Avatar Jay Jaffe: we’ll try not to jump the gun on the updates

8:57
Tony Wolfe: I’m pretty comfortable saying Turner could get a 2-3 year deal

8:57
Avatar Jay Jaffe: we

8:58
Avatar Jay Jaffe: The thing about Turner is that his defense is declining (though he’s had some good plays in the postseason). I think he needs to be a part-time DH. Wouldn’t surprise me if he stays with LA

8:59
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Also to preserve his legs.

9:00
Fire Ken Tremendous: Is Seager at 3rd and Lux at SS the likely Dodger defense in the future?

9:00
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think Lux’s throwing is enough of a question mark that SS is unlikely

9:00
Tony Wolfe: I don’t think Lux is a SS

9:00
Tony Wolfe: yeah, what Jay said

9:01
CJ: Fun trivia – there was a pretty famous 1st baseman in KBO when it started who was famous for stretching as Choi did. I grew up in Korea, and thought all good 1st basemen is supposed to do that.

9:01
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Longer term, i do thing Seager is bound for 3B but not necessarily in 2021

9:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Who was it, CJ? We are at least minimally conversant in KBO history here

9:02
MC: 2/$30m for Turner?

9:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: That sounds about right

9:03
CJ: 신경식(Shin Kyung-Shik), who played for OB (Now Doosan) Bears

9:04
Tony Wolfe: good timing, there’s a nice pick by turner

9:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: wow and there’s Turner with the slick defense

9:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: jinx

9:05
Fire Ken Tremendous: Better Choi: Hee-seop or Ji-man?

9:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: They’re pretty close, but Ji-Man is the one who still has an MLB job so he’ll probably win out.

9:06
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Hee-Seop Choi went back to South Korea and had some big seasons in the KBO. He was still playing as recently as 2015

9:07
Noah: Me thinks Turner will get more money than 2/30

9:07
Guest: Is it recency bias/big play memory or has LAD defense been quite good this postseason?

9:07
Bunk: The Turner Buehler show tonight!

9:07
circler: I guess his defence is still kinda there huh

9:07
JT<3: if Seager were to go to 3B next year would Kike or Taylor be decent at SS?

9:08
Tony Wolfe: Dodgers signing Andrelton Simmons to a cushion deal could be fun tbh

9:08
Tony Wolfe: But like Jay said, I don’t think Seager is moving next year

9:09
Mike: Hernandez is also a free agent but Taylor is a credible shortstop

9:10
Etwin: Do the Dodgers offer Joc a QO after his play this year ? If not the Astros look like a likely landing spot as a Reddick replacement

9:10
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Taylor I think is the better SS of the two but has a -4.6 UZR/150 for his career. I don’t think he’d be great there over a full season

9:10
Tony Wolfe: I would be surprised to see Joc get a QO

9:10
CJ:

9:10
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Very nice!

9:11
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Great googly moogly, Choi is nimble.

9:12
Smiling Politely: I’m…perfectly fine with that call with Barnes up?

9:12
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Dodgers score again on singles by Pederson and Bellinger and then a sac bunt by Barnes… they said it’s just the 3rd sac hit of the season but I don’t even remember seeing either of the others.

9:12
sadtrombone: LAD defense is pretty dang good because they put guys in good positions. Which is remarkable because at least in the infield those guys are mostly a bit below average for where they are.

9:13
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Yes it’s worth remembering that UZR doesn’t account for shifting and the Dodgers do a lot of it.

9:12
GoldStar: Small ball!

9:12
sadtrombone: This, uh, does not seem to be going well for the Rays.

9:13
Mad Joe-Don: Even lead! Dodgers are toast.

9:15
LarryTheBerry: I think Morton is actually pitching ok, but how long do you think he has left?

9:15
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He’s been in the zone a lot and the Dodgers have some hard-hit balls. they haven’t chased many of his pitches that have been outside the zone

9:15
Lzfreak: Who is first out of the pen for TB?

9:15
Tony Wolfe: Thompson maybe?

9:16
Avatar Jay Jaffe: And Mookie plates another one.

9:16
sadtrombone: Still not going well for the Rays.

9:16
kevinthecomic: Nice close up of Betts really bringing those hands in to connect on that inside pitch

9:17
Lzfreak: We really should get a taco per steal

9:18
Tony Wolfe: more ji-man choi doing cool stuff

9:18
Avatar Jay Jaffe: whoa, great defensive play by Choi to go skyward to snag a high throw and then tag Seager

9:18
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: When the Rays go to the pen, keep an eye out for Sherriff as a junk timer. If he faced Pederson, it’d probably be the first Jewish pitcher-batter matchup in WS history. Trivia!
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/sports/articles/world-series-jew-vs…

9:18
Smiling Politely: Choi is something!

9:20
Mike: I always wonder why guys don’t slide into first when they see the 1b jump like that it seems like it would evade a lot of those swipe tag plays

9:20
Tony Wolfe: think you’re grossly underestimating the reaction time required to do that mid-sprint

9:21
sadtrombone: I don’t think that Snell was great or anything a couple nights ago but I do think the Dodgers struggle a bit more with the lefties.

9:22
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Snell was filthy. He was in the zone a lot more than usual and the Dodgers just couldn’t do anything with it aside from the Taylor solo HR. that said, you’re correct that the Dodgers are stronger vs righties (126 wRC+ this year) than lefties (113)

9:21
Mike: Probably

9:22
Lzfreak: If Buehler takes a no hitter deep, how many pitches will he get?

9:23
Mike: The Dodgers were 11-4 vs lefty starters this year, what they struggle with, or at least do worse against, are guys who get their swing and miss inside the strike zone instead of on chase pitches

9:23
Tony Wolfe: no-hitter or not, I think Buehler’s combination of stuff and lead right now means he’ll get a pretty long leash

9:26
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Some loud contact there off Buehler but still bupkis for the Rays.

9:27
Adam: Is Randy for real for real?

9:28
Avatar Jay Jaffe: There’s reason to think so, as a top-40ish prospect and a guy who could make some All-Star teams given his current tools and skills. Go check what Eric had to say about him on today’s podcast.

9:28
Tony Wolfe: *jeff passan voice*

9:28
Dodger Fan: Aaaaaaaaa-rozarena

9:29
Mike: Walker doesn’t traditionally excel in soft contact, he tends to have that Cole/Verlander/Hader profile of very rarely giving up contact but having it frequently be spanked

9:29
Avatar Jay Jaffe: to your point, the average exit velo on the balls they’ve put into play against Buehler is 94.0 mph

9:33
Avatar Jay Jaffe:

I’m always fascinated by Kevin Cash’s pitching decisions.

Last Saturday, Charlie Morton had 66 pitches and a 2-hit shutout in the 6th – and Cash took him out.

Tonight, he was down 5-0 with 78 pitches through the 4th – and got left in.

Much quicker hook when Cash has a lead.

24 Oct 2020
9:33
Avatar Jay Jaffe: but there he goes

9:34
Tony Wolfe: jay, you drinking anything fun tonight?

9:36
Avatar Jay Jaffe: right now just a mixture of grapefruit juice and seltzer (my go-to) but I was just thinking about cracking a beer.

9:36
Dodger Fan: Water is an underrated drink.

9:37
Avatar Jay Jaffe:

Is it time for Jay to crack a beer

Yes (27.2% | 12 votes)
 
Most definitely (43.1% | 19 votes)
 
Sure thing (29.5% | 13 votes)
 

Total Votes: 44
9:38
Tony Wolfe: looooool

9:38
Mike: Dodgers have a chance to be up 2-1 in this series without any of their 3 or 4 best relievers having appeared in a game

9:38
Tony Wolfe: whole lotta baseball left tonight, but that is certainly possible

9:38
Tony Wolfe: and no small thing with two straight days of games following this one

9:38
Dodger Fan: That was an awesome arm angle graphic

9:39
Nicklas F: You misses the option ”hell Yeah!”

9:39
Avatar Jay Jaffe: the people have spoken. At the half-inning I shall open a beer.

9:41
plsGame7: That was a trippy arm angle graphic. and also very effective, I’d be so crossed up as a hitter

9:41
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Ordinarily I hate the stupid postseason-only camera angles, but that panning shot along the netting where you see the entire field is so cool. Lets you appreciate the whole nine guys.

9:41
Avatar Jay Jaffe:

Dodgers are first team with an RBI sac bunt in a World Series game since Rays in 2008 (Game 2)
24 Oct 2020
9:41
Avatar Jay Jaffe: See, even the analytics-driven teams do it!

9:42
Mike: Bunting with a hitter as bad as Barnes for a run seems like one of the best sac bunts imaginable

9:44
Avatar Jay Jaffe: The people have spoken and I have gone to the refrigerator for a Singlecut Grunge: https://singlecut.com/beer/grunge-ddh-iipa-2/

9:45
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Haven’t tried this, it was in a “Dealer’s Choice” case chosen by the brewery, which is one of my favorites in NYC.

9:45
Kwah: The real reason Babe Ruth is the most productive Hall Of Famer of all time is because he excelled in Jaffe’s “drank a lot of beers” metric.

9:46
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Actually it was his Herculean hot dog consumption

9:46
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He’s not only #1 in JAWS, he’s #1 in DAWGS

9:47
Tony Wolfe: I’ve got a Rhinegeist Truth next to me. It shall be Cincinnati’s only contribution to this World Series

9:47
Mike: Postseason Walker F Buehler is the most fun I’ve had watching someone pitch since peak Kershaw

9:47
Nate: He only ate all the hot dogs to wash down the beer

9:48
Avatar Jay Jaffe: And there’s the Rays’ first hit of the game, a double down the line by Manny Margot

9:49
Nicklas F: Any one know what pitch count Bueler can manage and when was the last time a perfect game was performed in a World Series?

9:49
Avatar Jay Jaffe: There’s only been the one perfect game in a World Series, by Don Larsen in 1956.

9:50
Tony Wolfe: Margot is having a snazzy-as-hell postseason. Had a .962 OPS entering tonight, after not reaching a .700 OPS in the last three seasons.

9:50
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Wrote a bit about Larsen and that game when he passed in early January https://blogs.fangraphs.com/imperfect-but-for-one-afternoon-don-larsen…

9:50
Mike: 100ish is gonna be Buehlers max.  He’s barely reached 100 this year due to the blisters but even in fully healthy seasons he’s only been allowed to 110-115 when the Dodgers season is on the line.

9:50
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Mike is saving me the trouble of typing all that stuff!

9:52
Bb: Jay, does Dusty Baker get into the HOF without a WS title?

9:52
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’m not so sure, but then I don’t see why Lou Piniella (1 pennant, 1 title) has gotten so close via the Era Committee while Jim Leyland (3 pennants, 1 title) hasn’t even come up for a vote.

9:55
Avatar Jay Jaffe: And there goes the shutout as Adames doubles in Margot on a 2-strike pitch

9:55
Tony Wolfe: I wonder if people who think the Rays aren’t fun just don’t know Willy Adames exists

9:56
Mike: Hodges as a player and Baker as a manager both definitely deserve discussion and when the other part of their career is also significant achievement it seems like a no brainer to consider both

9:56
Dodger Fan: Baker invented the high-five, right? Put him in the hall for that.

9:57
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Glenn Burke invented the High Five, Baker was the recipient

9:57
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I see the argument on composite contribution but I’m … not entirely convinced on either of those guys. I’m a notorious low man on Hodges and it probably cost me something in terms of reaching geezers of a certain age with my book

9:58
Avatar Jay Jaffe: composite contribution is a guy like Torre, who was borderline HOF as a player and won the four championships. Baker wasn’t in his class as a player.

9:59
Mike: Hodges managerial career less significant than Baker’s playing career but the Miracle Mets are a major historical baseball thing

9:59
Avatar Jay Jaffe: One has to attach mega-importance to the Mets’ win to get Hodges over the line, unfortunately it’s not as though the Mets did much with him at the helm other than that.

10:00
Adam: The oddest part of this season was Dusty Baker without a toothpick

10:00
Avatar Jay Jaffe: We’ve lost a lot during this pandemic.

10:00
Tvetter: Lou managed a Mariners team that saved baseball in Seattle and got the M’s out of a basement and into a beautiful ballpark – maybe not hall worthy feat, but still special

10:00
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Yeah but those bullpens (fire emoji, and not the good kind of fire)

10:02
JT<3: thanks for the history lesson on the high five!  led me down an interesting wiki rabbit hole on Burke.  What interesting history!  Dodgers have such interesting history

10:03
Tony Wolfe: There’s a podcast called The Dollop that has an excellent episode about Glenn Burke

10:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: There was a doc about him out but I’ve never seen where I could stream/rent it

10:04
Kwah: I am a 1995 AL wild card truther; Ken Griffey never touched home plate.  Don’t know if this is the proper forum to air this grievance but there it is.  #YankeesWereRobbed

10:04
Tony Wolfe: there is no correct forum for this grievance

10:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: no

10:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Nobody cares

10:05
Lzfreak: If Dusty and Burke invented the high five, who invented down low? What about too slow?

10:05
Tony Wolfe: everyone’s uncle

10:05
Tony Wolfe: the Austin Barnes Game!

10:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Austin Barnes can do it all, bunt and hit for power.

10:05
Lzfreak: That wasn’t a bunt this time

10:05
Dave Roberts: Don’t bunt; hit dingers

10:08
Tony Wolfe: these “most ever in the postseason” stats are really conflicting for me this year and I hate it

10:08
Tony Wolfe: the dodgers having the most two-out runs in playoff history is neat

10:08
Tony Wolfe: on the other hand, there’s a whole other round this year!

10:09
Avatar Jay Jaffe: there’s a whole other round but those 2-3 games kind of come out in the wash since you could easily be comparing 4 game series vs. 7 game series in the same number of rounds

10:09
Tony Wolfe: that’s very true

10:09
Mike: The Dodgers have the same number of games as a team that played a 5 round lds and 7 round lcs since they went 5-0 in the first 2 rounds

10:09
Avatar Jay Jaffe: The Mookie Betts show is back in town. 2 singles, 2 steals

10:11
weezy: Every time Mookie does Mookie things, I remember the Red Sox said they couldn’t afford him

10:11
Avatar Jay Jaffe: it’s like saying “we can’t afford firewood, we’ll just have to burn this paper money instead”

10:12
Mad Joe-Don: You can’t buy that kind of financial flexibility.

10:14
Mike: I made a comment on Jays article about Betts last night about how a player like Betts is able to capitalize on so many low probability, high-leverage situations that can swing a single game but don’t make that much impact over a long season due to rarity.    Similar to the leverage of stolen bases, those plays can have enormous win probability swings

10:16
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Buehler at 74 pitches to start the inning.

10:16
Mike: Playing in a park that seems engineered for stealable home runs has certainly helped

10:17
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’ve really enjoyed that aspect of this postseason. I see the argument for raising the wall heights as a way to curb homers and increase balls in play, but the robberies are pretty f’ing exciting

10:17
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Old Friend Mike Petriello had a good piece on them today https://www.mlb.com/news/globe-life-field-home-run-robberies

10:19
Guest: Buehler’s last inning, right?

10:19
Tony Wolfe: In all likelihood yes, but if he finishes up quickly Roberts could still give him a baserunner in the seventh

10:19
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Players with a sac bunt and homer in the same WS game?

10:20
Avatar Jay Jaffe: it’s been done 15 times before tonight. Adam Eaton did it twice just last year and it’s totally lost from the collective consciousness https://stathead.com/sharing/TFSlO

10:21
CJ: 2019 is so long time ago

10:21
Avatar Jay Jaffe: A world of difference, to be sure

10:21
Tony Wolfe: Yeah honestly what from 2019 is still in our collective consciousness at this point

10:23
CJ: Sorry. One more Korea plug – when ‘parasite’ won, I thought that was going to be how I remember 2020 by. How wrong I was.

10:23
Tony Wolfe: still the highlight of my year, tbh

10:23
Tony Wolfe: oh wait no I got engaged

10:23
Tony Wolfe: Parasite number two

10:23
Avatar Jay Jaffe: LOL. Congrats, Tony!

10:23
JT<3: i have no issues with this era of baseball.  but i wouldn’t mind moving the walls back if HRs are “boring”.  i just don’t want them to ban the shift.  let the players play defense!

10:24
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Moving the walls back is a VERY expensive solution, so that’s not going to happen. Banning the shift costs $0 so of course Rob Manfred goes to sleep dreaming of the day.

10:24
Tony Wolfe: got it in two weeks before covid reached the states. had no idea I was sinking that buzzer beater when I took the shot

10:24
weezy: Buehler has looked incredible

10:24
Avatar Jay Jaffe: As I am fond of saying on Twitter, Walker Buehler is the real f’nig deal.

10:25
Avatar Jay Jaffe: The arc of the Dodgers’ postseason would be very different if he were still hampered by those blisters

10:26
Lzfreak: I’d put Buehler in for the 7th. Keep the bullpen rested for games 4 and 5 as much as possible. Can always pull him after a batter or 2

10:26
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He’s at 93 pitches. With this lead, I send him out there and pull him if/when a batter gets on

10:27
Avatar Jay Jaffe: There’s a new Sherriff in town

10:27
Mike: Reminded of the Joe Davis/Hershiser podcast where they and Dave Roberts each wrote down an answer to “the Dodgers will win the world series if..”, and all 3 said “Walker Buehlers blister remains controlled”

10:28
Avatar Jay Jaffe: wow, Mike

10:28
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Re Sherriff, Joc Pederson is due up 5th in this inning so the Members of the Tribe matchup may have to wait.

10:29
weezy: so are the rays (and their revenue) punished by peaking in their success in this pandemic-shortened season? I imagine between gate sales and postseason revenue, they are losing out on a huge chunk of their operating budget

10:30
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Well, championship teams typically get the attendance bounce the following year, but right now I don’t think anything is guaranteed about paid attendance in 2021.

10:30
Dave Roberts: any chance the Dodgers let Joc bat against a lefty here?

10:31
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good point, probably not, especially because the likely moves would be defensive upgrades, too.

10:30
Tony Wolfe: it appears from the broadcast that treinen will pitch the seventh for LA

10:33
Mike: I like how Buehler uses the insane spin on his 4 seamer to steal strikes at the bottom of the zone that people always think will be balls, so contrary to conventional wisdom about that pitch

10:34
Tony Wolfe: I don’t know pitch physics as well as others on this site, but that’s what’s always struck me about buehler

10:34
Avatar Jay Jaffe:

Per @Dodgers_PR: With 10 strikeouts, Walker Buehler records his first double digit strikeout performance of his playoff career. In two career World Series starts, he has allowed one run on five hits with 17 strikeouts (13 IP).
24 Oct 2020
10:34
Tony Wolfe: I just don’t know that I’ve seen anyone else who throws four-seamers at the knees like he does where batters seem to just give up on them

10:35
Guest: Somebody explain the mindset of the dodgers’ dislike of barrels?

10:35
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I don’t think it’s dislike, just that it’s not a necessity to win. Good things can happen even if you don’t always barrel the ball.

10:36
Craig: I get their lineup is good, but shouldn’t Bellinger be batting higher up anyway?

10:37
Avatar Jay Jaffe: They like to alternate R-L when they can but yeah, it’s reasonable to swap Bellinger for Muncy if things are back to going well, which I think they are for Bellinger. Though Muncy has been a constant on base machine.

10:37
Mike: The Dodgers barrels are overrated thing is just a joke.  In 2017, Chris Taylor went 4-4 in a game where he hit everything badly and was shaking his hands after every hit.  It turned into a joke.

10:38
JT<3: i think the story goes that Taylor was standing on first and shaking his hands and fingers to dispel the lingering shock of poorly hit ball (not barreled).  And that’s where the hand gesture came from.  It’s like, hey i’m standing on first on a dinky hit; “barrels are overrated”; also ouch my hands hurt

10:38
BettsBellingerCaruso: Barrels are overrated is a somewhat ironic phrase they love saying after getting on base w/ a bs hit – and now Fox is acting like it’s their genuine mindset lol

10:38
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Lots of feedback from the crowd there!

10:38
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Treinen is indeed in the game

10:41
Lzfreak: Will the Dodgers use their high leverage guys? This seems low leverage for now

10:43
Dodger Fan: Treinen is one of our high-leverage guys.

10:43
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Treinen is among the high-lev guys but maybe they don’t have to use Kenley. With the 5-run lead and 3 straight games, they might be conservative.

10:43
Magic Johnson: If the score remains the same, this a good spot to get Jansen an “easy” save?

10:43
Avatar Jay Jaffe: No save with a 5-run lead

10:44
Mike: Given how much Jansen has dropped off in back to backs in Sept I think Jansen is being saved for a high leverage spot because he’s probably only going to be very good in 1 of 3 games here

10:45
Avatar Jay Jaffe:

Since people don’t seem to know, the “barrels are overrated” thing is a joke, about a day in 2017 Taylor got 4 weak hits: dodgers.mlblogs.com/unassuming-qui…

The 2020 Dodgers just led the Majors with a 10.3% barrel rate.

24 Oct 2020
10:46
Marshall: Am I the only one who thinks Glasnow looks a lot like Prince Humperdink?

10:46
Avatar Jay Jaffe: LOL we just watched the Princess Bride here the other day and i couldn’t quite make the connection.

10:50
Craig: Seager is their best hitter now so fine. But I’d be tempted to go Betts Bellinger at the top over a full season. Hey opposing starter, meet our two league MVPs.

10:52
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s funny because Bellinger hit 4th last year, with Muncy 2nd and Seager 5th. I think they’ve just moved the hotter guy up.

10:52
To be named later: I wouldn’t be surprised if later in the series Smoltz said he knew the barrels thing was a joke. But he didn’t.

10:52
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He also denied burning himself while ironing a shirt that he was wearing.

10:54
Tony Wolfe: rays infielders still making life hard on choi

10:54
Craig: I’m look at bRef active WAR leaders. Some names surprise me. Good players but I didn’t realize how good. Greinke is a surefire Hall of Famer? Kinsler as or more valuable than King Felix over his career? Does Evan Longoria have a chance to get in the hall? Just some observations

10:55
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Greinke, Kershaw, Verlander, and Scherzer are all HOF-bound, I believe. Kinsler good but not quite HOF-level good. Felix, sigh. He was on the path to Cooperstown but fell apart. Longoria is quietly making a case for himself but there are still several worthy 3B ahead of where he’ll likely end up.

10:56
Smiling Politely: Ji-man Choi deserves some kind of special badge on his jersey for this game or something

10:56
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He is a very entertaining player.

10:57
Mike: Greinke as a HOFer seems obvious.  He’s had amazing seasons, pitched forever and never been bad.  That’s the recipe for a HOF career

10:59
Gratty: Graterol just flippin up 102 like he’s skipping rocks on a pond

11:04
Tony Wolfe: Still haven’t seen a World Series game stay really close for all nine innings. Had really expected differently with these two pitching staffs, but it’s been sort of a weird three games so far

11:04
Dodger Fan: McClanahan!

11:05
Guest: Jay: which person who isn’t good enough for the HOF solely as a player, executive, manager or otherwise is a HOFer if you consider his combined contributions to the game as a whole?

11:06
Avatar Jay Jaffe: off the top of my head I might go with Davey Johnson over Baker and Hodges, the two guys we were discussing. Might need to think if somebody cuts that line… I still feel the top 10 or so player omissions would be ahead of anybody who fits this bill though

11:10
Kwah: Is Bill James in the Hall?  He belongs.

11:11
Avatar Jay Jaffe: No, he’s not, yes he probably should be. The Hall should really revive the “pioneer” category for Era Committee ballots.

11:13
Section329: Buck O’Neil

11:14
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Definitely a guy who benefits from the composite contributions, and if we’re talking about Negro Leagues Plus… then all the more reason to put Minnie Miñoso, my #1 guy outside the Hall, in.

11:15
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Speaking of which, I recently did an interview for a CNN En Español spot on a forthcoming doc talking about Minnie, Tony Oliva, and Luis Tiant and the Hall of Fame. Details to come but I think I get to see a screener soon.

11:15
Klim: Re: HOF candidates that don’t make it just as players etc: Curt Flood.

11:16
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Yeah, Modern Pioneer category, plz

11:16
Marshall: I can’t think of another series where both teams were essentially built with farm/trades/scrap heap. Who is the biggest FA signing between these two teams? Joe Kelly?

11:17
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Pollock ahead of Kelly, for sure.

11:17
Tony Wolfe: pretty sweet start for jansen

11:17
kenley: kenley looks angry and ready to pitch based on that K

11:18
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Maybe he’s fixed? Certainly seems far more serviceable than he did at the end of the regular season.

11:19
Craig: Charlie Morton?

11:19
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Bigger impact than Pollock, yes. Good call.

11:19
ProfM: What do you think of Roberts’ pen usage tonight? Make sense to get the win now and not worry about the next two being close?

11:20
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I probably lean towards the “there are no low leverage situations with a late-inning lead in the World Series” camp

11:20
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Given how long it’s been since Kenley pitched, I can see the logic here

11:20
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Nobody wants to see Joe Kelly Joe Kelly this game up to where you need to bring in Jansen anyway

11:21
Tony Wolfe: Plus, Treinen threw 14 pitches, Graterol threw 7, and Jansen is a strike away here at 11. All of these guys are available tomorrow.

11:21
Tony Wolfe: ON THE OTHER HAND, RANDY

11:21
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Welp. Good on Arozarena, with the record-tying homer

11:21
Avatar Jay Jaffe: May all the homers you surrender be 2-out solo shots with a 5-run lead.

11:21
JT<3: Who’s Randy?  He’s Randy!

11:22
5 Run Homer: I came in to say Kenley looks incredible and then oop

11:22
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: This is why I stayed up!

11:22
Section329: Randy!

11:22
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Randy sets the single-postseason total bases record there too, for whatever that’s worth

11:23
Dodger Fan: TWO WINS TO GO

11:23
Section329: Thanks for the chat

11:23
Tony Wolfe: We’ve got a 6-2 final in favor of the Dodgers in Game 3.

11:24
Avatar Jay Jaffe: And there’s the third out, 6-2 final, and like Game 1 it felt like the Dodgers dominated. They’re up two games to one, and have Urías and Kershaw coming in the next two games. It’s not a bad spot to be in.

11:24
Tony Wolfe: Thanks for hanging out, everybody. This is a neat way to spend a Friday, imo.

11:24
Dodger Fan: Thanks for chatting guys

11:24
JT<3: THANK YOU FG!  THANK YOU ALL AWESOME CHATTERS!

11:25
Craig: Good times, y’all. Until next time

11:25
Fire Ken Tremendous: Thanks all

11:25
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Thanks, everybody! That was fun. We’ll have another chat tomorrow night (not necessarily these participants). Good times





Meg is the managing editor of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside.

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