Yordan Alvarez Has Been A Really Good Hitter
50 games into his major league career, Yordan Alvarez has a 183 wRC+ and has been worth 2.3 WAR. Let’s take a look at what we might be able to reasonably expect from the 22-year-old slugger moving forward. Here is how Alvarez compares to the rest of the league:
| Barrel % | Average Exit Velocity | Hard Hit % | xwOBA | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | 17.5% | 92.4 mph | 48.9% | .420 | 12.1% |
| League Average | 6.3% | 87.5 mph | 34.4% | .318 | 8.3% |
When you hit the ball hard and at a good launch angle often, and draw walks often, good things generally happen in the batter’s box. This has been true for Alvarez thus far. According to Statcast’s Erdős number calculations, among the most similar hitters to Alvarez this year are Christian Yelich, Pete Alonso, and Jorge Soler.
Of course, most of the hitters on the major league leaderboards are several years older than Alvarez. At just 22-years-old, he is currently sixth in the major leagues in barrels per plate appearance, behind such hitters as Mike Trout and Joey Gallo, and ahead of hitters like Yelich and Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger. In barrels per batted ball event, he is ninth. No one above him on either list is his age. Alvarez’s xwOBA (.420) is sixth in baseball and also better than two other young bat-first prospects with above average batted ball profiles. Juan Soto, last year’s offensive wunderkind, currently sits at .410, while Keston Hiura is at .365. Soto, who is younger than Alvarez, doesn’t hit the ball quite as hard or do so as often as Alvarez, but he draws more walks. Hiura, who about 10 months older, hits the ball harder more often, but also draws fewer walks and swings and misses more.
Coming into the 2019 season, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel ranked Alvarez the seventh best prospect in a loaded Houston system. As Dan Szymborski noted, this was less a knock on Alvarez and more a nod to the depth of the Astros’ minor league talent, many of whom were performing in the upper levels of the minor leagues and possessed intriguing profiles and upside. Eric and Kiley noted that Alvarez’s massive frame and 65-grade raw power stood out, and that he was likely nearly big league ready, putting a 50 FV grade on him overall. His defensive profile – a first baseman that is likely a DH in time – limited his upside. At least in the short-term, it looks as though Alvarez might be better than league sources indicated coming into the season.
Alvarez’s batted ball data puts him in the upper tiers of major leaguers in a variety of ways. In the previously noted categories of barrels per plate appearance, he is in the 98th percentile. In barrels per batted ball event, he’s in the 98th percentile. In average exit velocity, he’s in the 95th percentile. In a season when offensive performance is up league-wide, Alvarez’s counting stats and rate stats have not only been historically good amongst rookies, but his quality of contact is among the league’s best currently.
Alvarez’s defensive value will limit his upside moving forward, and some regression can likely be expected. His 30.3% chase rate is above the league average of 28.2%. That .375 BABIP is partially driven by above average BABIPs on all types of batted balls.
| Overal BABIP | BABIP on groundballs | BABIP on line drives | BABIP on flyballs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | .375 | .260 | .813 | .188 |
| League Average | .299 | .239 | .617 | .125 |
Still, there is a chance that Alvarez continues to be one of the best hitters in the game for the foreseeable future. Alvarez is unlikely to maintain a 183 wRC+ moving forward, but the early returns of his batted ball statistics are intriguing. He’s shown above average plate discipline with above average game power and an above average ability to square the ball up consistently, all of which are traits that are shared with only a select group of players who are several years older and have more big league experience than him.
Sources have indicated that Alvarez’s minor league batted ball data is in some ways even more impressive than what he’s done in the big leagues thus far, lending greater confidence to the sustainability of this early performance. Others have noted that his profile is that of an early-peaking/early-aging type player, to the extent that regression may happen sooner for him than others. But even if his batted ball profile regresses like some sources predict, there is enough value in his offensive profile to project him to continue to be, at least in the short term, in the upper tier of major league hitters.
Josh Herzenberg has served as an area scout and a minor league coach for the Dodgers. He can be found on Twitter @JoshHerzenberg.
The next big papi
That’s my comp for him as well
From a fantasy perspective, perhaps even better if he can hang onto his OF eligibility.
I thought he reminds me a bit of Carlos Delgado too.
Yes, but without the juice, as some seem to forget.
If you simply triple his 2.2 WAR over these last 50 games to simulate a full season, you get 6.6 WAR.
6.6 WAR would be tied with 2002 Giambi for the 5th best single season by a primary DH ever. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=dh&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=1871&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=1871-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=22,d
His 183 wRC+ would be 2nd best for a DH over a full season ever.
Without the use of PED too.
Why might aging-related aggression happen sooner to Alvarez?
Just a guess, but probably body type and lack of speed.
If Alvarez is the next Edgar or Big Papi nobody will notice that a Jake Marisnick type will be patrolling the outfield instead of him.
May i ask the writer why his defensive value will limit his upside going forward? Mr. Alvarez plays in the American League. The American League has a position called the Designated Hitter. His position is such that he can only add value and is never in a position to detract from the team’s performance. That player has absolutely no defensive responsibilities so therefore his value cannot be limited, or lessened in any degree whatsoever, as long as the Astros, in this case, are allowed to send somebody out to play defense while Mr. Alvarez prepares for his next AB. I keep searching for a reason that something so obviously wrong, that a DH should be penalized for not playing defense, yet never get a reasoned response from any source.
A DH’s WAR will be lower than his contemporaries who provide defensive value: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/fielding_position_adjustments/
Andrelton Simmons has played 1001 career games and has a 92 wRC+ and 24.8 WAR. Cliff Floyd played 1621 career games and had a 118 wRC+ and 24.7 WAR. Simmons has been +152.8 on defense, while Floyd was was -103.4. If you reverse their offensive outputs, Simmons is likely a HOFer and Floyd might not have ever played in the big leagues. Alvarez’s defensive output is more likely to be similar to Floyd’s than Simmons’, so he needs to contribute more offensively than Simmons to be of similar overall value.
Why should his WAR be lower as long as there is somebody providing that defensive value in his place? I think baseball is a team game but the DH is being penalized as if he isn’t a member of the team. I am not saying that Andrelton Simmons isn’t providing a different type of value as an individual adding both his offense and defense but the DH is actually only 1/2 of a position that WAR seems to have a difficult time either accepting or understanding. I absolutely agree that Andrelton Simmons, by himself, is of more value than a DH but, and this appears to be that conundrum that WAR cannot handle. The DH is only 1/2 of the position and his defensive replacement is the other 1/2, which is what the defender who plays the field is, and, as such, are more than comparable to a single player. Are you going to agree with me that a combination of J.D. Martinez and Jackie Bradley Jr. is more valuable than a single player who might be a great defender but a weak bat, Ender Inciarte for example, or a strong hitter who should never set foot on any part of the diamond except the batters box and the base paths like Jorge Soler, or perhaps Yordan Alvarez. I think the correct answer is that WAR just cannot accept that an American League lineup has 10 players with 8 players who play two roles, one at bat and one in the field, and 2 who actually only play 1/2 of the game. The guy on the mound should really be called the Designated Thrower, although he does add a little defensive value, and his counterpart on offense who is the Designated Hitter. I will conclude by asking you if the American League pitcher’s WAR is penalized for not hitting? I think not.
The amount of downvotes you have gotten from providing a very reasonable and detailed take on the subject just proves that the majority of nerds on this site care more about the formula than the output. This site and it’s fanboys will NEVER be able to wrap their heads around the fact that they are wrong more often than a mendoza line hitter.
The zero defensive ability in itself is a detriment, because it means he HAS to occupy the single position that is technically playable by all. Should there be a second person with zero defensive ability, Alvarez’s own suddenly becomes further magnified, because he has already occupied the slot that the other player would need.
Whereas, if you have two shortstops, you can competently move one to second base. Or if you have two CF’s, you can move one to a corner.
If you have two DH’s, you can’t move one to the other spot. There is none.
And, he has to be that much better on offense, to make up for not contributing anything defensively.
Zero defensive ability was certainly no detriment to the most important player in the long history of the Boston Red Sox. The man who led the Red Sox to 3 World Series Championships was a DH. The fact that he seldom played the field did next to nothing to detract from the accomplishments of David Ortiz. I would be remiss to not also mention the two recent Hall of Fame inductees, Edgar Martinez and Harold Baines. Neither player was ever noted for their defense before they became full-time DH’s. Why does it appear that everybody is assuming Yordan Alvarez has to play somewhere in the field. The Hall of Famers that I just mentioned plus Big Papi show that if Alvarez settles into a long career as the Astro’s DH he might possibly join them in Cooperstown.
His path to being able to have a long and successful ML career is made a lot easier if he can credibly play the field.
I think his defensive limitations are a little exaggerated by the Astros having no need to play him in the field. He won’t be a gold glove, but his bat will more than carry his glove.
That is true, but we are not here to see if individual players might reach the Hall of Fame. The reason teams play is to win games and the DH definitely assists the team in that goal all the while doing absolutely nothing to impede that goal. Are individual accomplishments more important than the only real goal, that of of the team winning the game? I hope that isn’t the case and assuming that the only goal is the team winning then the DH cannot possibly do anything on defense to hamper that goal. Therefore, logic demands that the DH not be penalized for not playing defense. Only emotional claims that cannot stand up to any rigorous analysis could say that the DH’s value should be lessened by his role on the team. The correct conclusion is that while not playing defense may hurt a DH’s chance of making the Hall of Fame, it does not, in any way, detract from the true goal of the game which is helping the team win.
“I keep searching for a reason that something so obviously wrong, that a DH should be penalized for not playing defense, yet never get a reasoned response from any source.”
Guaranteed that did not happen. Much more likely, you’re choosing to ignore to same valid and obvious reasons over and over. You’re either that stubborn troll, or just incredibly unintelligent.
No, he’s absolutely right. You dorks are stuck crunching numbers while Yordan is out there proving that you don’t have a clue when it comes to measuring his value. Keep trying though. One day your projections will be right and you can high five all your buddies through Microsoft excel.