ZiPS Midseason Movers and Shakers: Hitters
One of the things I try to emphasize when I talk about projections is that they’re not numbers written in stone, but an array of estimates that’s always moving. Each individual plate appearance or inning pitched, while not a needle-mover on its own, adds to our knowledge of a player and very gently changes his career trajectory. Forecasting a player isn’t all that different from forecasting a hurricane, but thankfully, players cause a lot less mayhem. Except maybe Len Koenecke.
It’s been three months since the start of the season, and we have a lot of new information about players. Since we’re approaching the halfway point of the season, and the fact that I’m getting a few dozen chat questions a week about which players have seen their projections change the most, I thought this would be an appropriate time to do an in-season ZiPS run with the full-fat model that is too compute-intensive to run every day. To keep the list relevant to 2026 MLB goings-on, I narrowed it to players who either have played in the majors this year or are one of the 1,232 prospects on The Board. So my apologies to players such as Tre Richardson III, whose projected 2027 OPS+ has improved from 54 to 74. I’ve ranked the players by the largest changes in projected 2027 OPS+ compared to what it was in the preseason.
| Player | Preseason 2027 OPS+ | Up to Date 2027 OPS+ | Diff | Preseason 2027 WAR | Up to Date 2027 WAR | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Salas | 53.6 | 78.9 | 25.4 | 0.05 | 1.41 | 1.36 |
| Luis Lara | 70.0 | 92.3 | 22.3 | 1.14 | 3.07 | 1.92 |
| Jordan Walker | 91.0 | 112.3 | 21.3 | -0.11 | 1.10 | 1.21 |
| Gary Sánchez | 84.1 | 104.2 | 20.1 | 0.39 | 0.94 | 0.55 |
| James Tibbs III | 93.1 | 112.5 | 19.4 | 0.70 | 2.16 | 1.46 |
| Mike Sirota | 83.6 | 102.4 | 18.8 | -0.38 | 0.69 | 1.07 |
| Bryce Eldridge | 110.9 | 129.0 | 18.1 | 1.08 | 2.53 | 1.45 |
| Gage Workman | 87.5 | 105.6 | 18.0 | 0.54 | 1.42 | 0.88 |
| Edwin Arroyo | 73.2 | 90.2 | 16.9 | 0.49 | 1.95 | 1.47 |
| Ben Rice | 122.7 | 139.6 | 16.9 | 2.33 | 3.57 | 1.24 |
| JJ Bleday | 101.9 | 118.7 | 16.9 | 1.43 | 2.92 | 1.49 |
| Jake Bauers | 109.7 | 126.4 | 16.7 | 0.75 | 1.58 | 0.83 |
| Jonah Cox | 72.0 | 88.6 | 16.5 | 0.79 | 1.72 | 0.92 |
| Austin Hedges | 49.9 | 66.3 | 16.4 | 0.68 | 1.17 | 0.48 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 149.3 | 165.5 | 16.2 | 3.34 | 5.25 | 1.91 |
| Willson Contreras | 111.0 | 126.7 | 15.7 | 1.58 | 2.77 | 1.19 |
| Axiel Plaz | 67.1 | 82.7 | 15.6 | 0.18 | 0.86 | 0.68 |
| Xavier Edwards | 92.0 | 106.9 | 15.0 | 2.58 | 3.86 | 1.29 |
| Curtis Mead | 93.8 | 108.5 | 14.7 | 1.34 | 1.93 | 0.59 |
| Seaver King | 68.7 | 83.3 | 14.6 | 0.58 | 1.35 | 0.77 |
| Josue De Paula | 91.2 | 105.7 | 14.4 | 0.30 | 1.26 | 0.95 |
| Max Muncy | 103.2 | 117.4 | 14.3 | 1.15 | 2.23 | 1.08 |
| Josh Jung | 96.7 | 110.6 | 13.9 | 1.54 | 2.47 | 0.94 |
| Jim Jarvis | 68.4 | 81.6 | 13.2 | 0.42 | 1.38 | 0.96 |
| Ben Ross | 64.8 | 77.8 | 13.0 | -0.58 | 0.22 | 0.80 |
| Sean Keys | 77.8 | 90.6 | 12.8 | 0.31 | 1.07 | 0.76 |
| Mike Trout | 110.1 | 122.7 | 12.6 | 1.17 | 2.42 | 1.25 |
| Dominic Canzone | 108.2 | 120.7 | 12.5 | 0.96 | 1.59 | 0.63 |
| Henry Bolte | 99.5 | 111.9 | 12.4 | 1.64 | 2.67 | 1.04 |
| Jaison Chourio | 72.8 | 84.7 | 12.0 | -0.09 | 0.39 | 0.48 |
It’s nice to see Ethan Salas atop this list. One of the best young catching prospects in baseball, Salas debuted on the ZiPS Top 100 at no. 63 in 2024 and improved to no. 29 on the 2025 list. Then the actual 2025 season happened, and Salas missed almost all of it with a significant back injury. Young catchers are already typically quite volatile when it comes to outlook, and a serious injury was enough to make ZiPS very worried, dropping him out of the Top 100 this past winter. But so far, Salas has put up one of the most exciting comeback years in the minors, hitting .282/.352/.432 for Double-A San Antonio, and he only turned 20 about three weeks ago. He’s out right now with an oblique injury, but it’s not believed to be a big deal.
I wrote about the Milwaukee Brewers last month and discussed how the team has done a terrific job when it comes to aggressively utilizing players who have improved. As if to highlight my piece, an effect that was almost certainly unintended, two weeks later the Brewers and outfielder Luis Lara agreed to a seven-year, $31 million extension that could be worth $79 million with team options. ZiPS was wait-and-see on Lara coming into the season, ranking him as the 177th prospect in baseball, but after debuting in Triple-A with a .313/.426/.447 line at age 21, ZiPS now sees him as a top contender for 2027 NL Rookie of the Year. Unless, that is, he loses his rookie status this year, which is in the realm of possibility.
Jordan Walker’s 2026 season is a good example of why you should give talented players as many opportunities as you can to prove you wrong about them. It wouldn’t be hyperbole to characterize his 2024 and 2025 seasons as nearly unmitigated disasters, and it was really hard to see much hope for him. The patience St. Louis showed has paid off, however, as Walker’s been legitimately excellent this season and looks to be headed for his first All-Star selection. Even his once-notorious defense has continued to improve, and while he’s not going to pull of Pete Crow-Armstrong cosplay in the outfield, he no longer looks like a must-DH player.
Another Brewer, Gary Sánchez, has been terrific, at an age where you shouldn’t expect improvement. Like other new Brewers have done, Sánchez has been displaying the best plate discipline of his career since joining the team. James Tibbs III is slugging nearly .600 for Triple-A Oklahoma City, an impressive performance even after you let all the helium out of the Pacific Coast League numbers.
Arguably the best first base prospect of the last few years, Bryce Eldridge put up a 155 wRC+ in Triple-A, making it hard for the Giants to wait much longer to promote him. They’re struggling to stay out of last place in a division with the Rockies, but that’s hardly Eldridge’s fault, as he’s hit .291/.385/.504 in 37 games with San Francisco. He certainly has the look of a guy who should be a serious offensive force.
Mike Sirota, who is thankfully not a pitcher so I can’t confuse him with Mike Sirotka and Michael Soroka, was on our Picks to Click list this preseason, meaning that our prospect team had an expectation that he could land on the Top 100 list in 2027. That’s looking like a pretty good bet, as the 2023 third-rounder put up a 176 wRC+ in High-A and is running a 168 wRC+ since moving up to Double-A. Ben Rice’s breakout season is proving pretty crucial for the Yankees due to the Aaron Judge injury, and it looks like JJ Bleday may work out as a major leaguer after all. Fully healthy this season, Yordan Alvarez pops up in this list as well, which makes me very happy as a big fan of him.
Austin Hedges has a 97 wRC+ this season! It’s weird to think now, but as a prospect, he was expected to be an actual hitter in the majors, and it even briefly looked like it would happen in 2018. ZiPS isn’t all-in, still only projecting him for a 66 OPS+ in 2027, but since the Guardians have always been quite happy to give him plate appearances, it’s better to have a 66 OPS+ than a 50!
| Player | Preseason 2027 OPS+ | Up to Date 2027 OPS+ | Diff | Preseason 2027 WAR | Up to Date 2027 WAR | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Wynns | 76.6 | 54.7 | -21.9 | 0.25 | -0.04 | -0.28 |
| Eduardo Tait | 81.0 | 60.2 | -20.7 | 1.10 | -0.42 | -1.52 |
| Dylan Carlson | 93.9 | 74.1 | -19.9 | 0.95 | -0.36 | -1.31 |
| Rafael Marchán | 75.2 | 56.1 | -19.1 | 0.57 | 0.19 | -0.38 |
| Junior Perez | 88.4 | 69.3 | -19.1 | 1.06 | 0.01 | -1.05 |
| Jahmai Jones | 120.4 | 101.4 | -19.0 | 2.22 | 0.98 | -1.24 |
| Jeral Perez | 84.7 | 66.4 | -18.4 | 1.09 | -0.13 | -1.22 |
| Luis Baez | 79.1 | 61.3 | -17.8 | -0.62 | -1.44 | -0.82 |
| Brock Wilken | 86.6 | 69.6 | -17.0 | 1.08 | 0.25 | -0.83 |
| Edward Duran | 67.6 | 51.7 | -15.8 | 0.01 | -0.73 | -0.74 |
| Ryan Clifford | 107.3 | 91.5 | -15.8 | 1.38 | 0.22 | -1.16 |
| Gabriel Gonzalez | 108.3 | 93.0 | -15.3 | 1.41 | 0.31 | -1.09 |
| Jose Trevino | 71.1 | 56.1 | -15.0 | 1.17 | 0.51 | -0.66 |
| Rob Refsnyder | 99.1 | 84.5 | -14.6 | 0.17 | -0.29 | -0.46 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 132.0 | 117.5 | -14.5 | 5.13 | 4.07 | -1.06 |
| Christopher Morel | 99.4 | 85.1 | -14.3 | 0.66 | -0.28 | -0.94 |
| Luke Keaschall | 114.2 | 100.0 | -14.2 | 2.33 | 1.87 | -0.47 |
| Capri Ortiz | 63.6 | 49.6 | -14.0 | -0.27 | -1.19 | -0.92 |
| Zach Cole | 100.7 | 86.7 | -14.0 | 1.89 | 0.81 | -1.08 |
| Marco Dinges | 78.2 | 64.2 | -14.0 | 0.29 | -0.26 | -0.55 |
| Edgar Quero | 92.8 | 78.8 | -14.0 | 1.39 | 0.43 | -0.96 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 100.6 | 86.9 | -13.7 | 2.95 | 2.15 | -0.81 |
| Bo Naylor | 100.0 | 86.3 | -13.7 | 2.04 | 1.29 | -0.75 |
| Kehden Hettiger | 71.8 | 58.2 | -13.6 | 0.17 | -0.57 | -0.73 |
| Allan Castro | 82.3 | 68.8 | -13.5 | 0.83 | 0.04 | -0.79 |
| Nasim Nuñez | 73.2 | 59.8 | -13.4 | 1.42 | 0.94 | -0.48 |
| Cutter Coffey | 75.0 | 61.6 | -13.4 | 0.38 | -0.45 | -0.83 |
| Nolan Gorman | 105.7 | 92.4 | -13.3 | 2.15 | 1.30 | -0.85 |
| Trea Turner | 106.3 | 93.2 | -13.1 | 2.96 | 2.23 | -0.73 |
| Cam Collier | 81.8 | 68.7 | -13.0 | 0.20 | -0.83 | -1.03 |
Remember how I said catchers are volatile? Lots of catchers make this list, unsurprisingly. Austin Wynns has already received opportunities in a reserve role from two teams this season, but going 4-for-53 with no extra-base hits doesn’t get you a lot of playing time. Considering he’s a 35-year-old Triple-A catcher, ZiPS had limited expectations for him entering this season. Then again, Wynns is about to get his third chance in 2026, as he signed a minor league deal with the Rangers on Tuesday, so he must be doing something right!
Eduardo Tait, unlike Wynn, is an actual prospect, and one that ZiPS liked quite a bit. After joining the Twins as part of last summer’s Jhoan Duran trade, Tait has had easily his worse professional season in 2026. He ranked 30th on the ZiPS Top 100 prospects list this winter and 46th on the FanGraphs Top 100, but if he doesn’t turn things around, he’s going to fall quite a bit. Dylan Carlson’s been around in the majors for a while, but after three lousy seasons, mostly as a fourth/fifth outfielder, he found himself signing a minor league deal with the Cubs coming into 2026. A .600 OPS in Triple-A didn’t change any hearts or minds, and after his second release from the Cubs this year, Carlson signed a minor league deal with the Phillies. Somehow, his OPS with Triple-A Lehigh Valley is even worse, at .515.
Ryan Clifford was actually looking pretty good from a projection perspective early on, but a dreadful .390 OPS in June has dropped his seasonal line to .200/.287/.412, unimpressive for a first baseman/outfielder even if you forget that offense in Triple-A is significantly higher than in the majors. Fernando Tatis Jr. has confused me all season. He’s still making very hard contact, but he didn’t hit his first homer until May 30, and there are going to consequences for that!
I’ll be back tomorrow with the pitchers.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
I’m surprised Cal Raleigh isn’t on this list. I know Zips didn’t fall for his career year, but still…
He was only a 131 in the projection, so the dropoff just wasn’t enough to make the list.
Regression giveth and regression taketh away. Zips didn’t think Raleigh turned into Mark McGwire after 2025, but it also doesn’t think he’s turned into Jeff Mathis after 200PA this season.
Look at all those twins on the down list…. Cannot wait for this team to be sold.
I think they decided not to sell the franchise but it would have been better if they did. The franchise is officially directionless, with the current guy being in charge because the two ahead of him on the org chart quit. Everyone is hurt all the time, so there’s no way to know what you’re getting in the short term. They’re not good enough to buy and just decent enough that you can be fooled into thinking next year would be better. They’re not wholly incompetent like the Angels but if they could really use someone who has a plan that isn’t “muddle on through.”
I’m sure it’s just a shitty coincidence that Jahmai Jones and Refsnyder are both struggling this bad, but man it sucks when your lefty killer goes from hero to zero as drastically as those two have. Not sure how the Ms are handling it, but the Tigers’ strategy of “keep trying until it works” has been brutal. But what do you even do mid-season when a role player your team is built around just can’t execute anymore?
Well in the Tiger’s case, I would just let Keith and Carpenter try to hit lefties more. Even if they are bad, it’s not like they would be worse than Jones at this rate, and it gives them the chance to improve to be more than platoon players.
As a Guardians fan, I’m so excited that our two “Movers and Shakers” are projected for a 66.3 and an 84.7 OPS+. Same as it ever was…
Where does Vlad fall? He and Tatis had somewhat similar HR droughts.
@Dan – not sure if you’re looking at these comments, but the article got me thinking about whether there’s any predictive power to these kind of arrow up / arrow down trend lines.
I’m confident that you’re calibrating all that away in the median projections, but I could see it affecting the shape of the distribution. Like, do players that cause a large short term shifts in their projections have higher variance outcomes?
What does it say that there are no Rays on either of these lists?
I am curious about the selection method of prospects on the board. The Rays only have their 50 FVs on the board since their list hasn’t came out yet. Guys like Theo Gillen could have a shot at this but they weren’t eligible if just going by Dan’s definition.
I’m surprised we don’t see Kevin McGonigle here. He already surpassed his preseason ZiPS projection of WAR projected a few weeks ago.
I’d guess that both he and Wetherholt are still being seen as having a good half season rather than hanging their true talent by a lot. I’ll be curious how much they move if they keep it up all season.
Changing, not hanging. Another autocorrect “help”.
It’s by OPS+ not WAR and it includes the rest of the season. He was projected at as having a 112 OPS+ in the off-season, he’s run a 131 OPS+ for the season to date so zips probably sees some regression in order. He’s been so good though and his underlying supports his current performance if the projection. On his page is the most updated one Zips is still projecting him for just a 113 over the entire season which seems light considering how much he’s banked so far.
It terms of WAR so long as he remains healthy he will vastly exceed his preseason projection on playing time.
ZiPS had a pretty rosy projection of him before the season started. His FG Player page doesn’t have OPS+ but shows ZiPS expected a .767 OPS before the season vs. an .813 actual and a current .786 ROS.
I’m guessing the 2027 projection probably hasn’t moved all that much.
I’m impressed as heck with the kid. He hasn’t hit for tons of power yet but more BB than K your rookie season at age 20? That’s impressive. He has a bit of an uppercut swing (37* tilt) and the bat speed is good enough that I think he finds his way to a .200 ISO, maybe even this year. I could see him being a .300/.400/.500 guy for a bunch of years.
And don’t forget, while his 2026 projection was a .767 OPS, his 2027 projection in the preseason was a .782 OPS.
Relative to the preseason 2027 projection, he’s up 8.3 points of OPS+ (116–>125) and up 1.75 WAR (2.76–>4.51). McGonigle would be third by WAR improvement, behind Lara and Alvarez. But that gets kind of messy since that also folds in playing time expectations. ZiPS only projected 405 PA from McGonigle across all levels coming into the season. Because of the hamate fracture in 2024 and the high ankle sprain in 2025, McGonigle’s already two weeks away from setting a personal professional high in games.
Thanks for the explanation, Dan!
Hedges is a BEAST now. lolol
He keeps this up and his projected 2026 just might surpass the 20-year-old catcher in A-ball also on the Movers list.
No Kwan on the decliners list? Was ZiPS not a believer to begin with?
So where can we find some of these projections on our own? And we don’t care if they are a few weeks old. And secondly, where can we find Roto stats such as batting average, HR, SB, etc.? Is there a link on the Board someplace that I’m missing? In your previous article about Veen and other call-ups, you say “ZiPS translates his minor league line as the 16th-best among minor league hitters this season (.280/.357/.466).” Where can we find this list? Alternatively, where can we find ZIPS Major League Equivalencies?
Surprised to see Dinges on the fallers list. Near identical stats to his A+ in 2025. ZiPs probably thought highly of his low A 2025.
He had a bit of a dip in May, but he’s heated up lately. I’m assuming he’s been left in High-A to work on something (defense?) as he’s hit enough to get a promotion. Would the projection be better if he was in Double-A right now?
I can’t believe I hadn’t heard of Len Koenecke before. Going berserk on a plane is honestly really relatable
I guess I’m very surprised a half season of PAs is enough to go from outside the top 100 prospects in projections to a contender for top prospect projection next year (Luis Lara). No opinion whatsoever on him myself but I’m surprised
Great article. Thanks Dan. Wondering of you saw any trends as to who generally is up and who generally are down? Is there a main factor(s) that keys ZIPS so we can do a rough thumbnail of a players in season prospect while we anxiously await for next moment of analytical brilliance? Thanks again for the piece.
Why is Braves prospect Eric Hartman not an Improver? He’s having one of the most out-of-nowhere seasons in recent history.
Basically because he was low enough in the minors that I didn’t run an official 2026 projection for him in the first place (other than the long-term one for the purpose of the prospect list).
But for the record, if I had done a preseason projection for him, it would have been 210/276/300 for this season and 220/288/319 for 2027 (70 OPS+, -0.3 WAR).
ZiPS translates Hartman’s 2026 season at 243/290/444, which is a very aggressive translation for a player in High A-ball. That would be the third-highest translated OPS of any player with 150 PA at that level, behind Theo Gillen and Michael Sirota.
His projection now for 2027 is now 235/289/377 (85 OPS+, 0.6 WAR). So he definitely would have made this list had I a projection for him previously.
What’s up with the slight variability in zips projections? Like I’m looking at Junior Caminero’s 3 year projection and I see for 2026 4.2 WAR in 152 games and 631 PAs, 2027 3.9 WAR in 152 games and 631 PAs, 2028 4.3 WAR in 152 games 631 PAs. For some reason his 2027 wOBA is lower than 2026 despite better slash line (.345 and .273/.328/.512 vs .351 and .269/.322/.503).
Unfortunately, there’s never *perfect* alignment between the ZiPS WAR and FG WAR as I do a few things differently, and we don’t have park effects/future park effects aligned.
I’m not overreacting to Tait’s season. He’s showing signs of adjusting in June with a .263 AVG and 11 of 20 hits going for extra bases while cutting his strikeouts.
I never expected him to be a guy who walks a lot, but I think he can muster a .245 AVG and access enough power to get to 25 homers in mlb. He has to stick at catcher to make the bat viable, but I think he’s on the right track there.