Archive for 2008

Nationals: Terrell Young RHP, formerly of the Reds.

Naturally, Jim Bowden takes a Red. Young is 23 and spent last season in High-A ball. Young’s FIPs have improved in increments, but his strikeout and walk rates are bad, and that is bad meaning bad not bad meaning good. From rookie ball up: 7.71 BB/9 (23.3 IP), 8.10 (6.6), 5.60 (35.3), 5.26 (25.6), and 3.48 (33.6). Young is a career reliever and throws his fastball hard.

Mariners: Reegie Corona, MIF, formerly of the Yankees

Corona gets the award for “Name most likely to be misspelled”. In Double-A Corona hit .274/.345/.365, which is a close mimic of his career line, .264/.336/.336. Corona also stole some bases, and was 24 for 28. Dave likens him to the Mariners new version of Willie Bloomquist.

Padres: Everth Cabrera, MIF, formerly of the Rockies

Another young middle infielder, Cabrera has yet to touch Double-A, but has some success in the lower levels. Most notable about Cabrera are his steal totals: 104 of 132, or about 79%. Of his seven career homeruns, six came in 2008. He’ll probably see some time with the Padres, if only in a role similar to Corona.

Pirates: Donald Veal, LHP, formerly of the Cubs

Veal throws a mid-90’s fastball and has control issues. The Pirates seem to love taking gambles on those types and did so last year as well with Evan Meek. Considering their alternatives, it’s easy to see Veal sticking all season, perhaps as John Grabow’s replacement.

Orioles: Lou Palmisano, C, formerly of the Brewers

Injuries zapped Palmisano’s 2008, limiting him to a little over 100 at-bats. The Orioles later traded him to the Houston Astros for cash. In the minors Palmisano possesses a career .760 OPS,

Amongst some other notable picks:
The Mets selected RHP Darren O’Day from the Angels.
The Brewers selected RHP Eduardo Morlan from the Rays.
The Diamondbacks selected C James Skelton from the Tigers.

One of the big decisions for first-year GM Ruben Amaro, Jr, is whether or not he will retain Pat Burrell. Burrell is a three true outcomes hitter who plays poor defense at a corner outfield position. There are plenty of those on the market this season, driving down the price. In many other off-seasons, players like Burrell and Adam Dunn would likely command $14 mil or so, while now it appears more likely that they will earn something in the $10-11 mil range. Regardless of the exactitudes, Burrell’s love for the city and the market surplus of like-players means he could be had for a lesser fee.

His defense stinks, though, and he would be better-suited to serve as a DH for an AL team. Though Burrell has been one of my favorite players for years, if he were to sign elsewhere and the Phillies could replace him, perhaps with a slightly less productive hitter but more solid defender, this Phightins phan would not be particularly upset. I would, however, be upset if Amaro let Burrell go elsewhere and signed one of the other good-hitting, no-defense corner outfielders to replace him.

According to Jayson Stark, this may come to fruition, as the defending champs and Raul Ibanez seemingly have strong mutual interest. As Peter Griffin would say, this really grinds my gears!

Before even looking at the numbers, let it be known that Burrell is 32 and Ibanez is 37. Players like these two do not age particularly well, and yet the Phillies seem more willing to give a multi-year deal to someone five years older than their “current” left-fielder. I’m sure Ibanez is a standup guy and a positive influence in the clubhouse, but it isn’t as if Burrell is Sidney Ponson/Milton Bradley attitude-wise. For this to even make sense, Ibanez would have to project much better offensively, and at least a little better defensively.

Burrell’s 2009 Marcel wOBA is .369 to the .344 of Ibanez. This translates to +19 runs offensively for Burrell and just +6 for Ibanez. Both are likely to play the whole season, so we dock 7.5 runs for an adjustment. Meanwhile, Burrell would get +17 runs to adjust to value above replacement while Ibanez would get +18 runs. Now, we move onto defense. Both of these guys have been either the worst, or among the worst, defensive left-fielders over the past two seasons.

A rough UZR projection has them both at around -12 or -13 runs defensively for 2009. If we consider them both to be -12, then Burrell is, all told, +16.5 runs above replacement. Ibanez… is +5.5 runs. Translated to wins, we’re talking about +1.65 wins vs. +0.55 wins.

I have nothing against Ruben Amaro, Jr. Heck, I played baseball with his nephew and his brother even donated bases and balls to a league my father and I used to run. He will have to forgive me, though, for failing to understand why he would pursue a player worth over a full win less and who is five years older than a player he could likely easily re-sign. If you do not want Burrell back, fine, but do not replace him with someone less productive than he and much older in baseball terms.

Even if this deal were just for one season, I still would not like it, because it isn’t as if the Phillies have a top-tiered prospect waiting in the wings to take over the position. If you do not plan on re-signing Burrell, it makes no sense to sign someone with similar skills that is less productive, older, and almost as, if not equally, costly.

A few deals coming through as the winter meetings draw to a close.

Reds sign Arthur Rhodes, two years, 4 million

Rhodes went from out of baseball in 2007 to a desirable commodity in 2008. The Marlins dealt an arm for Rhodes at the trade deadline, but decided against offering Rhodes arbitration, costing them a compensation pick. Two years for a 39-year-old situational reliever seems a wee bit silly, especially one with some red flags like Rhodes.

Rhodes’ BABIP was .319 in 2008, despite allowing 27.9% line drives. When your pitches are being hit that hard consistently and most of them are still turning into outs, then there’s some level of luck involved. 45% of Rhodes’ batted balls were of the fly variety, and yet zero of those flyballs found their way into the bleachers. Rhodes has never allowed too many homeruns, but within the Great American Ballpark it’s likely that number is going to be a little less round.

The Reds are paying for less than 0.5 WAR annually, so the money itself is fine. Marcels says 43 innings and a 3.66 FIP for the ancient one, making him worth the money all ready. That’s without taking leverage into account, which might be around 1.5.

Good deal financially, but still a bit questionable to give a guaranteed second year.

Royals sign Kyle Farnsworth, two years, 9.25 million.

Let’s jump right to the Marcels projection: 61 innings 4.8 FIP. That’s below expectations for a replacement level reliever. One of the Dayton Moore’s alleged strengths is his ability to build cost-efficient relief corps. In fact, that was a large part of the reason Ramon Ramirez and Leo Nunez were traded. This however, is neither cheap or wise.

The odds of Farnsworth pitching like he did in 2006 are low. His fastball velocity has dipped, and so with it have his strikeouts and ability to keep pitches hit inside of the park. Farnsworth probably won’t allow more than two homeruns per nine like last season, but he’s a safe bet for one bomb. Farnsworth’s walks wouldn’t be an issue if not for the homeruns, but even a single walk can quickly result in a two run swing.

Kansas City might see the 4.48 ERA and 99 ERA+ and think Farnsworth is a pretty average pitcher, they would be wrong, and they won’t realize this until Farnsworth’s 84.7% strand rate regresses, if only to his 72.8% career mark. Kauffman Stadium is going to suppress some homeruns, and really that’s the only positive to get from this signing. Otherwise, the Royals could have saved cash and signed four or five minor league free agents (like Horacio Ramirez) and slotted a few into their bullpen with the same or better results than this signing is going to breed.

Yesterday, the New York Yankees signed CC Sabathia to a 7-yr deal worth approximately $161 mil. With a +5.5 win projection for 2009, and the more realistic $4.8 mil/win given the current economy, Sabathia’s fair market value would have been around $26 mil. Factor in a 10% discount rate for a long-term deal and a 7-yr contract comes out to $164 mil, extremely close to the actual terms of the signing. Brian Cashman mentioned how serious he felt about pitching and getting Sabathia definitely cemented that feeling in the minds of Yankees fans.

The signing of Sabathia piqued the interest of Derek Lowe, whose interest in pitching in New York grew following the move. On top of that, the Yankees reportedly have a 5-yr offer on the table for A.J. Burnett worth about $85 mil. Yes, the Yankees are apparently the front-runners for three of arguably the top four free agents in this class. If I see a report placing them atop the list off potential suitors for Mark Teixeira, my head just might explode.

A couple of weeks ago, I discussed what a potential new look Atlanta Braves rotation would produce, given their acquisition of Javier Vazquez and supposed guaranteed fifth-year for Burnett. Let’s do the same for the Yankees. For the sake of this post, we are going to assume all of the following:

1) Cashman signs Lowe and Burnett
2) Wang is fully recoverd and makes 30+ starts
3) Chamberlain pitches at least 140-150 IP in 25+ GS
4) Andy Pettitte does not return

The Yankees rotation in 2009 would then consist of: CC Sabathia, Derek Lowe, A.J. Burnett, Joba Chamberlain, and Chien-Ming Wang. Can anyone say super-rotation even before looking at the numbers?

Sabathia, Lowe, and Burnett have been discussed here before in dollar valuation articles. CC is a +5.5 win pitcher in 2009. With a 3.80 FIP in 187 innings, and a few more runs added for logging innings, Burnett would be +3.5. Lowe is projected to post a 3.67 FIP in 185 IP, but the switching of leagues from the Dodgers to the Yankees should bump that up a bit. If we call him a 3.80 FIP pitcher in 185 IP, he is virtually the same as Burnett, +3.5 wins.

Wang previously established himself capable of a heavy workload, and, if healthy in 2009, I see no reason why he couldn’t meet his Bill James projection of 200 IP at a 3.90 FIP. This makes Wang, with a few more runs for amassing 200 innings, a +3.5 win pitcher. And if Joba can manage a 3.30 FIP in 145 IP, he would also be a +3.5 win pitcher. For those keeping score at home, that gives the Yankees a +5.5 win pitcher and four +3.5 win pitchers in their potential super-rotation.

Put together, that is +19.5 wins. How does that compare to the 2008 rotation?

Well, due to injuries and such, the 2008 rotation was piecework at best. Outside of full contributions from Pettitte and Mussina, the Yankees got 12 starts from Joba and 15 from Wang. They received 105 Rasner-innings, 34 from Hughes, and 36 from Kennedy. Ponson managed to pitch 79 innings as well.

Mussina was top dog in 2008, at +4.7 wins. Pettitte came in second at +3.9 wins. Wang and Chamberlain, albeit in limited starting duty, were worth +1.9 wins each. Rasner was a +0.9 win pitcher and Hughes came in at +0.5. Ponson and Kennedy were the definition of replacement level. All told, this 2008 starting staff combined for +13.8 wins.

If we round 2009 up to +20 wins and 2008 up to +14 wins, then putting together this potential rotation would add six whole wins to their 2008 total, in the rotation alone. We aren’t even talking about defensive upgrades or other moves for the offense. You might think that six wins doesn’t seem like all that much given the quality of Sabathia, Burnett, and Lowe; however, if all other things remained constant, those six wins would have given the Yankees 95 wins in 2008, not 89. They are still making moves elsewhere to strengthen other facets of the club, but if Cashman can pull this off, the 2009 Yankees will be very, very good.

I’ve said a lot of good things about Dave Dombrowski this week, who made moves I liked in picking up Gerald Laird and Adam Everett to fill holes without surrendering much talent expending a lot of payroll. Well, yesterday, he took all that good will and gave it right back, making a ridiculously bad trade with Tampa Bay, sending outfielder Matt Joyce to the Rays for RHP Edwin Jackson.

We’ll start with Jackson – odds are that Dombrowski sees him as a young, high upside hurler who just had a breakthrough season and established himself as an innings eater at worst with potential to become a mid-rotation starter. After all, he threw 180 innings, posted a 4.42 ERA, just turned 25 years old, throws hard, and was considered a top prospect not too long ago.

However, Jackson didn’t have any kind of breakout year – he’s the same pitcher he’s always been. His FIP in 2007 was 4.90. His FIP in 2008 was 4.88. He cut his BB% down by over a full walk per game, but his strikeout rate fell from 7.16 to 5.30, canceling out the effect of the better command. The huge drop in ERA was thanks to the significantly improved defense the Rays put behind him (.351 BABIP in ’07, .301 in ’08) and some good luck stranding runners. The Rays defense isn’t going with him to Detroit, and the luck probably won’t either.

Jackson’s not useless – Marcel thinks he’ll put up a 4.64 FIP over 160 innings next year, so that makes him about +5 runs worse than an average pitcher and +15 runs better than a replacement level version. As a #5 starter, he’s not a problem, but that’s all he is.

To get Jackson, the Tigers parted with Matt Joyce, one of the few promising young players they had left in the organization. I generally don’t go for one for one comparisons that often, but in this case, the Jayson Werth comp works so well that I feel obligated to put it out there. Joyce is, essentially, a left-handed Werth – a guy who can play very good defense in a corner OF spot, has gap power and will walk occasionally, but whose lower contact rate will always keep his average down. Depending on how well he adjusts to being a full time player, the Rays should expect something between .260/.320/.430 and .270/.340/.470.

That makes Joyce something like a +2 win outfielder right now, and if he hits the high side of that projection, it’s more like +2.5 to +3 wins. Joyce is a better player, right now, than Jackson. He’s also under team control for two extra years and isn’t arb. eligible after the 2009 season as Jackson will be.

For the Rays, this is a huge win – they solve their right field issue with a quality, low cost player that easily gives them the game’s best defensive outfield. A Crawford/Upton/Joyce trio is going to be staggeringly good at chasing down balls in the gap. To boot, they open up a spot in the rotation for David Price, so they’re almost certainly going to be upgrading their rotation simultaneously.

The Rays get a lot better, while the Tigers shuffle pieces around and cost themselves some flexibility. Thumps up for Tampa, and a big thumbs down for Detroit.

Today we tackle Mark Mulder.

When the Cardinals dealt Dan Haren (amongst others) for Mulder prior to the 2005 season, they assumed an ace was on the way. In 2005, Mulder looked like a good enough pitcher despite losing a bit in performance, 200-innings, 4.3 FIP, so-so strikeout, walk, and homerun rates, and an increase in groundballs. Then 2006 came, and since here’s a list of injuries Mulder has suffered:

– Left shoulder impingement (6/06)
– Left shoulder surgery (8/06)
– Left shoulder surgery recovery (07)
– Left rotator surgery recovery (3/08)
– Left shoulder strain (7/08)

That’s a scary pattern for someone who just so happens to rely on his left shoulder to throw a baseball. As you would expect, Mulder’s velocity has been inconsistent, jumping from 88 in 2005 to 86 in 2006 back to 87.5 in 2007 and finally to 90 in the 1.2 innings 2008 provided. Changing speeds manually is good, changing speeds because your body requires you to as part of the aging process is okay too, but changing speeds because your body can’t decide how it feels that year is a bit frustrating.

Concerning performance, Mulder has been awful since 2005. In 2006, Mulder had a 6.01 FIP in 93 innings. Only a dozen innings since leaves Marcels without a decent outlook, and the monkey actually has Mulder with a FIP of 5.06 and 55 innings. Frightfully, that would actually be an upgrade over Mulder’s past two seasons. Still, that would not be too much better than a replacement level starter would bring, making the case for signing Mulder a pretty weak one.

As for the talk that Mulder could become a LOOGY, well, there’s the small problem of him not being exceptionally good at pitching to these of the same hand. The graph below is a nice visualization of his splits, but for the most part Mulder held lefties to an OPS between .650 and .700. His career OPS against is a touch higher due to rough seasons recently and in 2000.

I hesitate to state that any player is “done”, but Mulder doesn’t appear to have a ton of pitches left on his shoulder. If injured pitchers are like used cars, then Mulder’s the one with clanks bellowing beneath the hood and leaves a trail of smoke and oil behind him.

Holy moly.

In case anyone still had doubts, I think the Winter Meetings have officially passed the trade deadline for the most exciting transactional period in the baseball calendar. A day after the Mets inked Francisco Rodriguez and mere hours after the defending AL champion Rays fleeced the Tigers in a Dontrelle Willis-redux trade, the Mariners, Mets and Indians got old-school on all of us with a blockbusting three-team, twelve-player deal!

Here’s how it appears to be breaking down:

To the Mets goes J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed and Sean Green from the Mariners.

To the Indians goes Joe Smith from the Mets and Luis Valbuena from the Mariners.

To the Mariners goes Franklin Gutierrez from the Indians and Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Mike Carp, Maikel Cleto, Jason Vargas and Ezequiel Carrera from the Mets.

Where to start? In the simplest part I suppose, the Indians. They lose a terrific defender in Gutierrez, but he was blocked from full value by Grady Sizemore and the emergence of Ben Francisco and some intriguing at bats from Shin-Soo Choo made him expendable. In return they get a serviceable relief arm in Smith and another intriguing middle infield prospect in Luis Valbuena to pair with Asdrubal Cabrera who they got two years ago. Solid move for them.

The Mets continue to re-shape their bullpen adding Putz and Green. If Putz rebounds close to his 2006 or 2007 form, that’s a tremendous revamping for the next couple years. Green provides solid support against right-handed hitters. Heilman and Chavez weren’t pieces the Mets were going to miss and Reed adequately fills in the reserve outfielder role. The other assorted minor leaguers, while not total flotsam, also weren’t likely to end up on anyone’s top prospects list either. For a team competing in the short term, as the Mets are, this is a win for them.

From the Mariners point of view, Heilman might be more useful than Green since he’s not so limited to only right-handed batters, and Endy Chavez is pretty comparable to Jeremy Reed, so knocking those off the Ms get four minor leaguers and Franklin Gutierrez for JJ Putz and Luis Valbuena. While that may seem underwhelming to most, Gutierrez’s defense is legitimately outstanding. Good enough to probably make him a rough equal to JJ Putz in terms of projected value. The four-for-one prospect swap further cements this as a good deal for the Ms, who are clearly building with an eye to the future but also maintaining some view on the present.

All in all, this seems like each team comes out ahead, so kudos to all three GMs.

For the last few weeks, the Phillies and newly appointed GM Ruben Amaro, Jr, have been linked to numerous different players and scenarios. They were apparently considered a frontrunner for Derek Lowe before a new report revealed they haven’t even put together a formal offer. The defending champs were also reportedly involved in a proposed three-team trade that would finally end the Jake Peavy trade saga. With Chase Utley out for, most likely, at least one month, they have also been linked to players like Nick Punto and the recently-signed Mark Loretta. On top of that, they have to decide whether or not to bring back Pat Burrell and/or Jamie Moyer.

With all of these rumors and internal decisions, it is somewhat surprising that, prior to tonight, their lone move involved shipping Greg Golson—another Michael Bourn-type—for John Mayberry, Jr of the Rangers. This was a swapping of speed for power, as Mayberry is said to have 30-HR potential. Tonight, however, they sent AAA backstop Jason Jaramillo to the Pirates for their backup catcher, Ronnie Paulino.

In 2006 and 2007, Paulino was the starting catcher for the Pirates, before losing his job to Ryan Doumit this past season. During those two seasons, Paulino averaged 131 games, posted a .319 wOBA, and produced an average of -5 runs below average. In just 40 games in 2008, his wOBA fell to just .260, and he was worth -7 runs below average offensively in a mere 130 plate appearances.

In the minor leagues, Jaramillo has put up numbers very similar to those of Paulino’s in 2006-07, but never could earn a callup to the big leagues. Acquiring Paulino gives the Phillies four catchers worthy of some form of playing time. Carlos Ruiz had a poor year with the bat but proved to be effective in their playoff run, and is a very solid defensive catcher. Chris Coste isn’t as solid defensively, but has a much more potent bat. And Lou Marson is their top offensive prospect, a player the team is high on, and one that many feel will be the starter in 2010. Now add Paulino to the mix and, suffice it to say, someone isn’t making the big league club.

Perhaps Amaro felt that if someone got hurt, Paulino and his major league experience would be worth more than Jaramillo, especially given a 2006 season in which he was league average with the bat. With Marson waiting in the wings, Jaramillo realistically had little chance to earn significant playing time with the major league team. This trade isn’t going to make headlines, and many Phillies/Pirates fans reading this may have had no idea prior to venturing to this site, but it poses an interesting question for the Phillies: essentially, who stays and who goes? I would tend to think that Ruiz-Marson-Coste will start the season with the team, with Paulino a member of the AAA Iron Pigs affiliate.

Pirates fans, what say you about this under-the-radar and potentially meaningless move? What’s the scouting report on Paulino?

The recent trade of catcher Ramon Hernandez from Baltimore to Cincinnati did more than free up a spot for top catching prospect Matt Wieters. The trade also saved a little bit of cash for Baltimore and it netted the organization some minor league depth with the acquisition of prospects Justin Turner and Brandon Waring.

Turner, a middle infielder who has played mostly second base in his pro career, has done nothing but hit since signing out of Cal State Fullerton as a seventh-round draft pick in 2006. In three seasons, he has a career batting average of .310.

Last season, Turner batted .316/.372/.390 with an ISO of .074 in 136 High-A at-bats before being promoted to Double-A. At the higher level, Turner managed a line of .286/.364/.432 with an ISO of .143 in 280 at-bats. He also posted rates of 10.5 BB% and 19.3 K%.

The 24-year-old second baseman is likely half a season away from being ready to contribute at the Major League level and he adds much-needed middle infield depth to the upper levels of the minor league system.

Waring is a powerful player. Drafted in the seventh round of the 2007 draft out of a small college, the third baseman slugged 20 home runs in 68 rookie league games. In 2008, the 22-year-old moved up to A-ball and hit another 20 home runs in 119 games.

Waring also posted a line of .270/.335/.467 with an ISO of .197 in 441 at-bats. He struck out an alarming 35.4 percent of the time, while walking at a rate of 8.9 percent. His current approach at the plate suggests he will not hit for average as he nears the Majors. There are also questions about his defence and he may be unable to remain at third base, which would hurt his overall value – especially with Baltimore struggling to find a future option at that position.

Cincinnati was able to part with Waring due to the presence of third base prospects Juan Francisco, who was recently added to the 40-man roster, and Todd Frazier, who was the club’s supplemental first round draft pick in 2007. Turner was expendable for the Reds because of a glut of middle infield talent, including Chris Valaika, Adam Rosales, Paul Janish, and Zack Cozart.

Prior to the trade, neither Turner nor Waring was considered to be among Cincinnati’s top 10 prospects.

CC Sabathia‘s record-breaking contract is not the only news coming out of the Winter Meetings today. According to recent reports, there are some new details regarding Kerry Wood’s deal with the Indians, as well as the inking of Cesar Izturis to a 2-yr contract with the Orioles. Izturis spent the 2008 season with the Cardinals, posting a .292 wOBA. Suffice it to say, he is known much moreso for his glovework than his offense. Despite being -14 runs below average with the bat, UZR pegged him as being worth +10 runs on defense. Factor in his positional adjustment and value over replacement player and Izturis was roughly a +2 win player this past season, or slightly above average.

He will apparently receive $6 mil for his 2-yr deal with the Orioles. Marcel projects him to be worth -17 runs below average offensively. A modest UZR projection would see Cesar save +5 runs defensively. With the pro-rated adjustments and replacement levels thrown in, his true talent level for 2009 would be +0.8 wins. Multiply that by the supposed $5 mil going rate and the Orioles would be paying him $1 mil less than his fair market value. Dave’s earlier article suggests that $5 mil isn’t the going rate. If we adjust this year’s rate to $4.4 mil or so, then Izturis’ fair market value is $3.5 mil. All told, good deal for the Orioles. Little risk is involved and not much money is being committed.

My evaluation yesterday suggested Kerry Wood is a +1.4 win player for 2009, factoring in his run prevention skills as well as the leverage of the innings he will pitch in a new, and offensively superior, league. This would place his fair market value in the vicinity of $6-8 mil. A 2-yr deal in this regard should have been worth $14 mil. It is now being reported that his deal with the Indians is closer to 2-yr/$20 mil, meaning the Indians will be paying him over $7 mil/win relative to the average annual value. Wood will provide stability at the position given the revolving closers door for the Indians this past season, but he will have to vastly outdo his projection to merit being paid that much per win. Not even the overvalued K-Rod is receiving that much per win with his new deal.