After consulting the masses via Twitter, today I am going to share eight (very) loosely related thoughts regarding Adam Dunn:

1. Tired Dunn Talking Point A: Despite strikeout numbers that make traditionalists cringe, Adam Dunn is an outstanding hitter, sporting a .398 wOBA since 2008.

2. Tired Dunn Talking Point B: Despite being a tremendous hitter, Dunn’s defense both in the outfield and at first base, according to defensive metrics as well as scouting reports, is so dreadful that it seriously compromises his overall value, particularly in the NL where he cannot be DHed.

3. According to WAR, Dunn might be on the way to having his the best season ever, having compiled three Wins Above Replacement already. Of course, there’s still plenty of season to go, and we’re too smart to fall for “on pace” claims, right?

4. From 2004 through 2008 Adam Dunn hit 40 or more home runs every season, and hit exactly 40 each season from 2005-2008. He hit 38 last season. Yet Dunn has never participated in the Home Run Derby. While this is probably due to the way that invitations are distributed, isn’t it more than a bit weird that Brandon Inge has been in the Home Run Derby and Adam Dunn hasn’t?

5. Dunn has had classic “old player skills” from almost the very beginning of his major league career: defensive limitations, lack of speed, low batting average, great power, high strikeout rate, high walk rate, etc. But at 30, the offensive decline the older player skills theory would have us expect has, shall we say, remained “well-hidden” in Dunn’s case:

This doesn’t refute the general notion of old player skills. Nor does it mean that Dunn should not be expected to decline soon (one should expect that from most in their 30s). It is simply interesting.

6. Curiously enough, Dunn seems to be “reneging” a bit on his geezer skills status this season: his current .288 batting average is higher than it has ever been over a full season. While his strikeouts are as frequent as ever, his 2010 walk rate of 10.9% is by far the worst of his career. Bizarrely enough, the relatively high batting average has occurred in a season that Dunn’s swings are making less contact (69.6% contact rate) and he is swinging at more pitches outside of the zone than ever before (28.8% O-Swing versus 17.8% career). If I didn’t know better, I’d be tempted to think that loosening up his plate discipline has enabled Dunn to find a Fountain of Youth.

7. Despite Dunn’s efforts, Ryan Zimmerman’s all-around excellence, and the coronation of Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals are out of it. Trading Dunn, who is a free agent (likely Type A) after the season, is the logical choice. While there have been rumors of mutual interest between Dunn and the Nationals regarding a multi-year extension, those are dying down, fortunately for Nationals fans. While Dunn has aged gracefully so far (at least at the plate), given that the team is (optimistically) at least two years away from contending, a big long-term deal for any should-be DH in his early 30s, old player skills or not, is usually a bad idea, especially for an NL team.

8. ZiPS Rest-of-Season projections see Dunn as about a +18 hitter over the remainder of the season; let’s call him 2 WAR overall for the rest of 2010. He is probably owed between five and six million dollars for the rest of his contract, so unless Washington eats a substantial portion of his contract, there’s probably only three million dollars worth of projected surplus here — not bad, but probably not worth much more than a decent “C” prospect or two with some upside. However, because Dunn will likely be a Type A free agent in the offseason, draft pick compensation for the team offering him arbitration (assuming he turns it down) bumps the total projected surplus up to around nine million dollars, which means “B” prospects (plus filler) should definitely be in play.

Ubaldo Jimenez and David Price got the nod this last Tuesday as the All-Star Game starters. Both pitchers had a decent first half, but do the pitchers that get chosen at starters end up winning that season’s Cy Young Award like Tim Lincecum did last season?

I decided to go back and look at how often the Cy Young Award winner was that year’s All-Star Game starter. Both leagues started awarding Cy Young Awards in 1967 and that is were I started my comparison. To begin with, there were seven instances where a reliever won the Cy Young. I removed these instances since there was no chance for him to start the game. So out of a possible 79 Cy Young Award winners, 20 — or 25% — of them started the All-Star Game. Of these 20 instances, 16 of the them have happen since 1988, the halfway point in years since the award started.

Besides just looking at the All-Star game starter, I looked to see if that season’s Cy Young Award winner, starter or reliever, was selected to participate in the All Star Game. Of the 86 Cy Young Award winners, 70 — or 81% — of them were selected for that year’s All-Star Game. Since 1998, when the All-Star rosters started to expand from 28 players to the current 34, 23 of the 24 Cy Young Award winners were selected for the All-Star Game. The only exception was Johan Santana in 2004.

Most of these numbers make common sense. For someone to win the Cy Young, they are going to need a good first and second half of the season. All the pitchers that had a good first half are on display for the All-Star Game. These players are seen as the top pitchers and create a short list of players for the voters to watch in the second half of the season.

Ubaldo Jimenez and David Price are not guaranteed to win the Cy Young Award, but they shouldn’t be counted out either. There exists a good chance that this year’s Cy Young Award winner was on the All-Star roster though, especially considering recent trends.

The Boston Red Sox organization is one of the most aggressive teams in the Majors in terms of handing out above-slot deals to draft picks. During the three drafts spanning 2007-09, the club signed a Major League high 16 players to above-slot deals (outside the Top 3 rounds).

As a lover of everything prospects, I applaud this approach and even encourage it for organizations with strong scouting staffs. But how well have the multi-million dollar investments worked out for the Red Sox organization? Let’s have a look.

* For the sake of this article, I am focusing on over-slot deals for $200,000 or more.

7th round – Madison Younginer, RHP, S.C. HS ($975,000)
Challenged with an assignment to the New York-Penn League for his first taste of pro ball in 2010, the 19-year-old hurler currently has a 7.60 ERA (4.84 FIP) in 23.2 innings. He’s struggled a bit with his control but he’s shown a nice ground-ball rate at 59%. In the low minors, high ground-ball rates can hurt pitchers with poor defenses behind them (as well as poorly maintained fields).

9th round – Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor U ($550,000)
At 22, Volz is on the old side for low-A and he’s not exactly dominating the league. The right-hander has a 4.11 ERA (3.74 FIP) in 81.0 innings of work. He’s given up 92 hits and struck out just 62 batters with an average-ish ground-ball rate at 42%. Volz has walked just eight batters, which suggests he has good control but perhaps poor command of his pitches in the strike zone, which has been hurting him against the overly aggressive young hitters in the low minors.

10th round – Brandon Jacobs, OF, Georgia HS ($750,000)
Another teenager assigned to the New York-Penn League, Jacobs is holding his own with a triple-slash line of .276/.333/.402 in 87 at-bats. He has 28 strikeouts in 24 games. The Sox stole him away from Auburn’s football program and the results have been encouraging so far, even if he has yet to truly display his raw power potential.

11th round – Jason Thompson, SS, Tenn HS ($300,000)
Known for having good speed, Thompson has attempted just three steals in 17 GCL games. The switch-hitter is batting .208/.203/.319 in 72 at-bats. For a player that profiles as a No. 1 or 2 hitter, it’s not a good sign to see a goose-egg in the walk column.

26th round – Miles Head, 3B, Georgia HS ($335,000)
Head managed to get 10 games of pro experience in during the ’09 season after signing and he moved up from the GCL to the New York-Penn League for 2010. He’s currently hitting .275/.381/.377 in 69 at-bats. Head is showing a pretty good eye at the plate with 12 walks to 10 strikeouts. Considered a very good amateur hitter, the knock on Head was a bad body and poor defense at the hot corner. The infielder has moved over to first base in ’10 so he’ll need to start showing some more power.

4th round – Pete Hissey, OF, Pennsylvania HS ($1 million)
It’s been a step-by-step ascent for Hissey, who has moved up one level each season since signing. The outfielder is not exactly tearing the Carolina League apart by hitting .245/.322/.329 in 319 at-bats. He’s shown limited power throughout his career but 20+ stolen base ability. Hissey needs to get on base a little more consistently.

5th round – Ryan Westmoreland, OF, R.I. HS ($2 million)
We probably all know the story of Westmoreland by now. Recovering from brain surgery, the former top prospect is reportedly hitting off of a tee in the hopes of resuming regular baseball activity in the future.

6th round – Ryan Lavarnway, C, Yale U ($325,000)
The decision to pay Lavarnway is looking pretty smart. The former Yale student is currently hitting .289/.392/.487 in 304 at-bats and showed a pretty good stick in low-A in ’09, as well. After hitting 24 homers last year, Lavarnway is on pace to hit 20+ homers yet again. Behind the dish, he’s thrown out 36% of base runners, but he’s still working on his receiving skills.

13th round – Tyler Wilson, RHP, Georgia HS ($300,000)
Wilson wasn’t on a lot of teams’ radars as a top pick, but the club obviously liked his solid pitcher’s frame, which is currently 6-5, 190 lbs. Wilson is pitching in the New York-Penn League and has a 4.84 ERA (4.38 FIP) with 26 hits allowed in 22.1 innings.

27th round – Hunter Cervenka, LHP, Texas HS ($350,000)
Cervenka has joined Wilson in the Spinners rotation. The lefty showed some command issues in 11 ’09 appearances by walking 26 batters in 22.1 innings. He’s made adjustments in ’10 with just 11 walks in 21.0 innings. Cervenka currently has a 4.29 ERA (4.38 FIP).

35th round – Carson Blair, SS, Texas HS ($200,000)
Since signing, Blair has moved from shortstop to catcher. After posting a .608 OPS in the Gulf Coast League in ’09, he was moved up to the New York-Penn League but he appeared in just one game before hitting the disabled list. The thumb injury required surgery, according to SoxProspects.com.

5th round – Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Texas HS ($925,000)
Slow and easy. Middlebrooks hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, but he’s shown improvements in each and every pro season. The third baseman is currently hitting .293/.353/.455 in 297 at-bats. He’s showing better power in ’10 (.162 ISO) but he’s still striking out a lot (26% K rate). Defensively, Middlebrooks is showing better range this season but he’s made his fair share of errors.

6th round – Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Florida HS ($325,000)
Like Westmoreland, Rizzo has faced some serious health issues since turning pro. His cancer is in remission, though, and the first baseman had a breakout year in ’09. Unfortunately, despite playing at two levels in ’10, he’s hitting just .246/.310/.447 combined between high-A and double-A. His OBP has slipped to just .297 in double-A, thanks in part to 17 walks in 225 at-bats.

7th round – David Mailman, 1B, N.C. HS ($550,000)
Mailman received more cash from the Sox to walk away from a college commitment than Rizzo did, but the former has yet to have the same success in pro ball. Mailman has basically hit the wall in high-A. In 199 at-bats in ’09, he hit just .186/.261/.221. In ’10, he was hitting just .130/.264/.273 in 77 at-bats before being sidelined by a broken wrist.

16th round – Austin Bailey, RHP, Alabama HS ($285,000)
A disappointing story, Bailey injured his shoulder in his first pro start in 2008 and hasn’t pitched since. He was then suspended in ’09 and released earlier this year.

23rd round – Drake Britton, LHP, Texas HS ($700,000)
On to happier news. Britton has been a real find for the organization. After spending parts of two seasons in short-season ball thanks to Tommy John surgery, the lefty moved up to low-A in ’10 and has posted a 3.15 ERA (3.26 FIP) in 34.1 innings and 12 starts. His innings are being closely monitored as he rebounds from the injury but he’s flashed good fastball velocity in his return.

When the Angels signed Torii Hunter to a five-year, $90 million contract after the 2007 season it seemed like an overpay. In fact, given the teams competing for Hunter’s services, it almost certainly was an overpay in terms of objective value. But when five other teams make offers, an overpay might be necessary to land the player you covet. The Rangers were reportedly offering a five-year deal with a sixth-year option that would have ended up paying Hunter somewhere around $84 million. The Angels, desperate to add offense, felt that Hunter was worth more to them and made their limited-time offer.

In 2002 and 2003, as Hunter played through his prime years, he looked like one of the league’s premier center fielders. He produced 4.5 WAR in 2002, ninth among MLB center fielders, though a number of them were approaching their declining years. In 2003 his hitting dipped, but his defense was better than ever, 16.5 FRAA, which ranked fourth in the majors. Despite the poor hitting season, -4.5 RAA, Hunter’s value exceeded the $4.75 million his contract paid him. It looked like he’d be on track to continue that through the four-year, $32 million contract he had signed with the Twins after the 2002 season.

Yet from there Hunter continued to fall. In 2004, he produced 7.5 RAA and 1.4 FRAA for 2.8 WAR, 17th in the majors. In 2005, he was injured and did not qualify, but his rate stats looked a lot like his 2004 season. In 2006 and 2007 his bat improved a bit, but his fielding declined, -8 FRAA in 2006 and -2.9 FRAA in 2007. He ranked 14th in WAR in 2007 (2.5) and and 10th (3.3) in 2007. He still carried a reputation as an elite player, though, and it was no surprise that he received offers from those five teams. That excluded the three-year, $45 million offer from the Twins which he promptly rejected. It was a surprise, however, that the Angels bid as high as they did.

Hunter’s contract called for $16 million in 2008, $17.5 million in 2008, and $18 million from 2010 through 2012. In no year to that point did Hunter’s WAR justify a salary that high. But the market was different back in 2002 when Hunter produced 4.5 WAR. With offensive value shifting across the league, perhaps the Angels would break even on this deal. That’s not a bad place to be on a free agent contract. Yet, in Hunter’s first season away from the Twins his production reverted to its 2004-2006 levels. He produced -10.3 FRAA and 13.0 RAA for 2.4 WAR, which had a dollars conversion of $10.8 million, $5.2 million below his contract. He also ranked 16th among major league center fielders in WAR.

Last year Hunter turned that around, and it looks like he’s aiming to do the same this year. While he still finished 2009 as a below average center fielder, his FRAA was -1.3, so he was pretty close to average. He also turned on the thrusters with the bat, producing 13.0 RAA on the strength of a career-high .379 wOBA. He walked more than he ever had previously in his career and got his ISO back over .200. That led to a 3.8 WAR season, which ranked sixth in the majors and second in the AL. Best of all for the Angels, his dollars conversion nearly matched his salary.

This year Hunter is at it again. Through 366 PA he’s in the midst of what could be a repeat of his 2009 season. His walk rate is up more than two points over his career-high last season, he’s hitting the ball on a line more often than ever, and his .220 ISO is his highest since 2002. There’s always the chance that his production declines in the second half, but given Hunter’s steady production during the past year and a half there’s a good chance he’ll continue hitting at a level close to this. With offense down slightly, Hunter’s value could actually equal his $18 million salary this season.

If you were skeptical of Hunter’s ability to repeat his 2009 season, you have plenty of company. His .330 BABIP certainly stood out as a career high and about 30 points higher than his career average. That pushed his AVG to a career-high .299, so it stands to reason that a lower BABIP would bring down Hunter’s overall numbers. This year his BABIP still exceeds his career mark, but it is at .310, considerably lower than last year. Even still, he’s hitting .293, is walking more, and has displayed more power. We often hear that power and patience are the last skills to decline. Torii Hunter seems to agree.

Introduction
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#15 – David Wright, 3B, New York

It has been an interesting few years for Wright. After being a complete hitter in 2008, he lost his power and started striking out a ton last year. This year, he has regained his power but is still striking out at a high rate. The overall package is remains good, and Wright is in the argument for best third baseman in baseball, but the inconsistency in skills has to make you pause. In terms of his contract, he’s signed through 2013 for a total of $45 million. Given that those three years are his age 28-30 seasons, his salaries are team friendly compared to what Wright would receive on the open market.

#14 – Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis

The Cardinals star young outfielder has had a breakthrough sophomore season by sacrificing contact in order to generate a lot more power. While his strikeouts are way up, Rasmus has already matched last season’s home run total and has shown the ability to drive the baseball consistently. At just 23, he already provides a lot of offense for a center fielder, though his current performance is likely above his actual abilities – its almost impossible to hit .280 while striking out so frequently. Still, even if he settles in as more of a .260 hitter, his power and patience will make him a weapon, and the Cardinals will get to enjoy his production for at least four more years.

#13 – Robinson Cano, 2B, New York

At 27 years of age, Cano is well on his way to having the best year of his career. Always a high contact guy, he has continued to develop power while also improving his defense, and has turned himself into one of the best second baseman in the game as a result. The Yankees own his rights through 2013, and they are only on the hook for $39 million over the next three seasons. While that is decent money, it’s far below what he’s actually worth, and as a player headed into his prime years at an up-the-middle position, Cano provides significant value above and beyond what he costs.

#12 – Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee

This one was tough for me. Braun was a monster in his rookie 2007 season, but he has never been able to repeat those kinds of power numbers. In fact, his isolated slugging has declined in each of the four years he has been in the big leagues, moving in tandem with his strikeout rate, which has also fallen each year. Braun has apparently made the opposite choice that Rasmus made, and unfortunately, it hasn’t helped Braun. The skills are still there for him to be a star, but Braun is going the wrong way. That said, his contract is still far below his value, as he is locked up through 2015 for a grand total of $40 million. He might not be as good a player as he was his rookie year, but given how little money he is scheduled to make in his prime, Braun is still a bargain. And, who knows, perhaps he’ll realize sooner than later that he was better off as a monster slugger and live with the strikeouts. The skills are still there.

#11 – Justin Upton, OF, Arizona

Another tough one. Upton is not having a great year, as his power is down and his strikeouts are up over last year’s performance, but we have to keep in mind Upton’s youth. He doesn’t turn 23 for another month and has already accumulated 57 career home runs. Guys who are this good and this young almost always develop into superstars. Unless Upton screws it up, he can look forward to greatness ahead of him, and the Diamondbacks have already locked him up through 2015 for a total of $50 million. He’s not a star yet, but not only could he become one, he could be the best player in baseball. At this price, his upside would make every team in baseball get in on the bidding if he became available.

There are two narrative roads diverging from the USA Baseball collegiate national team after the club’s first two games: Anthony Rendon, and everything else. The Rice third baseman, and the consensus top player in an obscenely deep draft class broke his ankle on Wednesday, ending his summer (and fall) in the national team’s first game against foreign competition. Rendon, the Baseball America Player of the Year, was coming off a spring where he hit .394/.530/.801, securing his place as college baseball’s most well-rounded offensive prospect since, at least, Alex Gordon.

This is the second injury to the same ankle for Rendon, who didn’t play summer baseball a year ago after tearing ligaments in Rice’s Super Regional. Aaron Fitt reported that Rice head coach Wayne Graham is hopeful that Rendon will be ready on Opening Day for the Owls next spring, but the rising junior has yet to even undergo surgery. Rendon looked bound for the same Hype Machine that touted Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper as Generational Talents, but now, unexpectedly, he’ll enter next spring with something to prove to scouts: his health. However, it’s unlikely that anyone will usurp Rendon at the top of the 2011 draft board before then.

Keith Law has rumored that Vanderbilt third baseman Jason Esposito, a projected first-rounder himself, could replace Rendon on the national team roster.

This all stands to overshadow the other story out of USA Baseball Training Complex in Cary, North Carolina: this team is really good. In two games against the Korean National team, the USA has thrown a no-hitter and a two-hitter, led by the arms of Vanderbilt ace Sonny Gray and Oregon reliever Scott McGough. This is surely a team that would be competitive with the 2008 team that went a perfect 24-0 thanks to a ridiculous pitching staff that featured Mike Minor, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Leake, Andy Oliver and Kyle Gibson as its five innings leaders.

There is no question that Gray and fellow staff ace Gerrit Cole have the talent to belong in that group, and that’s to say nothing of UConn’s Matt Barnes or TCU’s Kyle Winkler, two other arms that drew plenty of praise during team trials in early July. I’d also be remiss not to mention Florida State’s Sean Gilmartin, who wasn’t in my 2011 Draft Pitcher Preview in June, but came to Cary with more velocity (up to 92 mph, reportedly) than I’d previously heard. This is a pitching staff that will make the offense’s transition to wooden bats an easy one.

On that side of this year’s team is a four-man outfield of potential 2011 first rounders: Jackie Bradley Jr. (South Carolina), Alex Dickerson (Indiana), Mikie Mahtook (LSU), George Springer (UConn). I wrote about all these players a couple weeks ago, but since then, it seems all except Mahtook have taken a substantial step forward. Bradley Jr. was a revelation during the College World Series, leading the Gamecocks to a national championship, and winning Tournament MVP along with innumerable plaudits from scouts. Dickerson and Springer spent some time in the Cape Cod League before USA trials started, and both were fantastic with wooden bats. Dickerson erased concerns that his big spring (.419/.472/.805) was because of a light schedule, and Springer continues to be the athletic Three True Outcome star of his class, a spot that helped Michael Choice get drafted in the top 10 this year.

The nation’s best players that don’t make the National team roster — or decline the opportunity to try out — are usually found in the Cape Cod League. That summer season has almost reached its halfway mark, and the All-Star Game is just 12 days away. Pitching has dominated as usual, with more than a few pitchers rising up draft boards: Jed Bradley (Georgia Tech), Tony Zych (Louisville), Michael Palazzone (Georgia), and Grayson Garvin (Vanderbilt), to name a few.

One pitcher, Anthony Ranaudo, isn’t worried about his draft status, but instead of convincing the Boston Red Sox that he’s worthy of top 10 money. Ranaudo entered this spring as a potential #1 pick for the June draft, but after a spring of injuries and ineffectiveness, dropped to Boston at 39th overall. Ranaudo’s bonus demands haven’t wavered, however, even with a 2011 draft class that threatens to impact his leverage. Choosing to prove his worth on the Cape, Ranaudo has been nothing short of brilliant: 29.2 innings over five starts without an earned run, with just 10 hits and eight walks allowed. Jim Callis has been adamant in his belief that Ranaudo will sign, and with each start, his demands look seemingly less unreasonable.

Finding offensive standouts is difficult, particularly now that Dickerson and Spinger have left the league. The most impressive performance is probably Hawaii’s Kolten Wong, hitting .333/.423/.438, and showing all five tools at times. In a small sample, Arizona State second baseman Zack MacPhee has been brilliant, reaching base at a .469 clip. The other standouts will be revealed in the coming weeks, but the list is certainly shorter than the pitchers.

While the injury to Rendon threatens to put a dark cloud over the summer news from the college baseball beat, he should be fine, and his draft class’ status among amateur scouts across the nation is only growing stronger.

Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez has been a popular subject around these parts lately. First, Gonzalez just missed making Dave Cameron’s list of the 50 players with the highest trade value in the game. As a plus defender with power who won’t reach arbitration until after the 2011 season, Gonzalez has considerable appeal. Here’s what Cameron said about him:

There aren’t many guys who can play a legit center field and hit the baseball a long way, but Gonzalez brings both skills to the table. Unfortunately, the rest of the game isn’t quite as refined, and his approach at the plate is a problem. His aggressiveness can and will be used against him, and when pitchers adjust, he’ll need to as well.

Jack Moore used his “Four Factors” to break down Gonzalez’s offensive game. While noting CarGo’s ability to drive the ball and praising his wide array of skills, Moore also voiced concern about the 24-year-old’s plate approach:

Two thousand and ten showed more of the same on the power front, certainly an encouraging sign for Rockies fans. But Gonzalez’s BB% has dipped back to where it was in Oakland, which is obviously disappointing after the 2009 season, as his minor league track record – no extended stints with double digit walk rates – doesn’t particularly suggest an ability to walk at a high rate, and this start to 2010 is dashing some of the hopes that Gonzalez’s on-base skills would approach average.

Today, I want to take a closer look at Gonzalez’s offense over the 2009 and 2010 seasons. Last year, Gonzalez began the season by annihilating pitchers at Triple-A Colorado Springs — in 223 plate appearances in the PCL, he batted .339/.418/.630. Gonzalez walked 9.9 percent of the time and boasted a .292 ISO. Despite taking his cuts in a favorable hitting environment, his major league equivalent line was .281/.343/.474, according to Minor League Splits.

Once Gonzalez reached Colorado, he authored a .284/.353/.525 triple-slash in 317 PA, with a 125 wRC+. In addition to posting a .241 Isolated Power, CarGo walked in 8.8 percent of his trips to the plate (his unintentional walk rate was 7.9 percent). This season, it looks as though Gonzalez picked up where he left off — his wRC+ is 126 in 347 PA. But, as his .314/.346/.532 line suggests, the distribution of that production has shifted. He’s still lashing lots of extra-base hits (.218 ISO), but his walk rate has dipped to 4.6 percent (3.5 percent unintentional walk rate).

Compared to last season, Gonzalez is chasing more pitches thrown off the plate and going after more in-zone offerings as well. His first pitch strike percentage was around average (58-59 percent) in 2009, but it has climbed in 2010:

Courtesy of Dave Allen, here are Gonzalez’s swing contours over the 2009 and 2010 seasons. The dotted line indicates CarGo’s 50% swing contour — in other words, inside the contour his swing rate is greater than 50% and outside it is less. Same deal with the solid line, which is his 75% swing contour — he swings more than 75% of the time a pitch is thrown within that area, and swings outside of it less. The black lines represent Gonzalez in ’09, and the purple lines are Gonzalez this season.

Both his 50% and 75% swing contours have expanded considerably in 2010, particularly on low pitches. When an opponent throws him something below the knees, Gonzalez goes golfing.

So far, Gonzalez’s hacking hasn’t hurt him — the drop in walks has been offset by a spike in BABIP (.333 in ’09, .360 this year). While he has a history of high BABIP marks in the minors (.344 since 2005, per Minor League Splits), .360 probably isn’t sustainable. Gonzalez’s expected BABIP, which is based on his number of home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls, is .340.

Every team in the majors would love to have a fly catcher with Gonzalez’s present talent and even higher ceiling. But if he’s going to keep up this sort of pace offensively, he might want to leave the nine iron in his bag and show a little more restraint at the plate.

The Reds are in first place after the All-Star game and are looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 1995. In order to help them finish out the season, they will be adding a pitcher who arguably vaults to the top of the rotation in Edinson Volquez, who will be making his return from Tommy John surgery on Saturday.

The Reds have already used nine starters this year, partially thanks to injuries to Aaron Harang and Homer Bailey. The rotation currently features three rookies, in Mike Leake, Travis Wood, and Matt Maloney, and Sam LeCure has also seen time in the rotation. As a whole, this group, along with Harang, Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, and Johnny Cueto have seen decent results, with a 4.10 ERA. But peripherals suggest that this group is performing over its head – as a whole, they have a 4.43 FIP and a 4.60 xFIP, and I’m not sure if that kind of talent is good enough to stave off the Cardinals for another 70 games.

Volquez likely won’t be the kind of ace that he looked like in 2008, where he threw 196 innings of 3.60 FIP baseball. He was poor before going down with injury in 2009, wasn’t much good in 2007, and is coming off one of the hardest surgeries to recover from in all of sports. But ZiPS still projected a 4.04 FIP for this season and CHONE projected a 4.11 mark, which is almost certainly a large improvement over Maloney, who hasn’t shown the ability to draw strikeouts in the MLB. If he hits around his ZiPS projection and can throw about 70 innings, he’ll provide about 1.0 WAR for Cincinnati, and at this point, every win is extremely important.

Of course, there’s a good amount of uncertainty surrounding Volquez given the fact that he is returning from Tommy John surgery. Given his excellent performance at AAA, where he struck out 28 and only walked eight in 31 innings, there’s reason to believe that Volquez is ready to go. It would be unreasonable for Cincinnati to expect Volquez to become a true ace for them, but he should become the best pitcher on the team, at least until Harang’s return. The fact that they’ve been able to hold first place until the cavalry could arrive is a great sign for the team. If Volquez can even be 75% of what he was in 2008, the Reds will be in excellent shape in their quest for the NL Central crown.

Though the Spice Girls never mentioned it, sometimes one can become two, as well.

Friday, July 16 | Texas at Boston | 7:10pm ET
Friday, July 16 | Washington at Florida | 7:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers (The Ones Who Matter)
Rangers: Colby Lewis (NERD: 6)
110.2 IP, 8.54 K/9, 3.09 BB/9, .266 BABIP, 40.3% GB, 8.5% HR/FB, 3.96 xFIP

Nationals: Stephen Strasburg (NERD: ca. Infinity)
42.2 IP, 12.87 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, .328 BABIP, 45.7% GB, 10.0% HR/FB, 1.99 xFIP

Zealous Introduction
If you ever wanted to know how Kurtz felt when he said “The horror, the horror” that one time in that one book, you might very well find out tonight when you’re forced to choose between watching Stephen Strasburg and Colby Lewis. “Cistulli,” at least one of you is probably saying, “ever hear of a little thing called ‘flipping back and forth between games’?” To which I reply: “Yes.” And also: “Trying to watch games simultaneously is a little bit like being in a Cash Cube: try and grab for all the money at once, and all you get is not that much money.”

Some Brief Evangelizing
To my sabremetric brothers and sisters, I’d like to inform you that the Most Reverend Colby Lewis will be preaching the Gospel of Joy tonight from the Fenway Park mound. Here’s what you can expect: lifted spirits, charismatic gifts, and a slightly regrettable soul patch. Here’s another thing you can expect: basically what you’ve been seeing since Lewis’s stateside return.

By way of example, cast your eyes at Lewis’s pitch selection and whiff rates for the entire season (courtesy Texas Leaguers):

Pitch	SEL	WHIFF
FF	54.0%	6.1%
SL	26.2%	16.7%
CU	11.0%	8.0%
CH	8.6%	7.7%

Now here are the same numbers, but just for his most recent start (July 7 versus Cleveland):

Pitch	SEL	WHIFF
FF	51.6%	6.1%
SL	27.4%	15.4%
CU	10.5%	0.0%
CH	10.5%	10.0%

It strikes me as rather extraordinary just how closely those lists resemble each other. I don’t know what this’d look like if we did it for a large sample of pitchers. In any case, it appears to suggest consistency — both in Lewis’s repertoire and its effect on batters.

We can probably expect Lewis to throw his fastpiece slightly more than half the time, his slidething about a quarter of the time, and then the curve and change split pretty evenly over the remainder.

What the What?!?
As I’ve probably mentioned here, Matthew Carruth of Lookout Landing does these great series previews over at Lookout Landing. One particular service he provides in said previews is to rate — using Pitchf/x data — to rate on the 20-80 scouting scale each offering in a pitcher’s repertoire by whiff rate, zone rate, and groundball rate.

Here’s what happens when we do that for Strasburg:

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
FB	47%	98	80	75	45
CU	23%	83	75	75	80
CH	19%	90	80	75	70
SI	11%	96	40	45	20
Total			80	75	50

Observation #1: Egads.

Observation #2: It’s actually a little hard to tell what’s been more effective, Strasburg’s curve or his change.

Observation #3: His fastball also appears to be decent.

Two Hitters
• Though Lewis has definitely stolen the heart of the present author, original All-Joyer Daniel Nava isn’t going softly into that good night, slashing .300/.371/.488 (.371 wOBA, 128 wRC+) through 89 PA. That’s the good news. Here’s the bad: he’s got a .418 BABIP. Per StatCorner, he’s currently sporting a .277 wOBAr — that is, wOBA regressed to some combination of Nava’s and a league-average BABIP. That’s not so good.
• Maybe during some sort of spirit quest or whatever, you saw Roger Bernadina’s blossoming into a useful right fielder for the Nationals. Otherwise, it’s likely that you’re still kinda like “Bernawho?” when you see his name. In any case, Funky Cold Bernadina is currently slashing .282/.345/.436 (.347 wOBA, 114 wRC+) through over 200 PA. The difference between Nava and Bernadina is that the latter is currently sporting a totally believable .329 BABIP.

If I Had My Druthers
• One of these games would get rained out, thus removing the burden of choice from my shoulders.
• Colby Lewis would get a hem on his garment, so I could touch it (i.e. the hem).
• Both teams would go out to Dairy Queen after the game.

The regular season got back underway last night, putting an end to the most miserable stretch in the schedule from an inaction standpoint. With that, the Twitter suggestion/reader appreciation week comes to a close, too, but not before I do one more … sort of.

Steve Slowinski jokingly suggested a post about Casey Fossum and how he ties everything in the universe together. (Slowinski is a Fossum fan and the finest writing talent DRaysBay has ever produced for those unaware.) This got me to thinking about Fossum, about his razor thing margins, awful facial hair, and his brief stint as a reliever with the Rays. And also about the Fossum Flip – his version of the eephus.

When a pitcher throws a lollipop like the Fossum Flip he has to hold an inordinate amount of luck that the batter hasn’t the faintest clue that the pitch is coming, otherwise it’s all over. We’ve all experienced the feeling of luck. Hell, Joe Posnanski often describes how one day in college he just up and quit accounting only to be covering events for his local paper shortly thereafter. Posnanski only got that gig because a sports editor gave him a shot to see if he had any chaps for the business. That’s luck. We’ve all benefitted from that luck, but still luck.

I consider a large part of my success luck and I don’t feel any the lesser for it. To be surrounded by these writers who dwarf me on a daily basis (I’d be less of a writer and certainly a lesser person without Carson Cistulli around). That we’re writers plodding the same soil rather than pitchmen or sales people is one of the best things about this place and to have David Appelman’s and Dave Cameron’s brilliant leadership to guide everyone is luck too.

And you know, that we all have you folks reading on a daily basis is luck too. You could easily find other things to do with your time rather than perusing, sharing, and commenting our thoughts on baseball, but you choose against it, and that means a ton.

So thank you – really — and here’s to a great second half.