Archive for August, 2012

Episode 229
FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron, as per usual, makes his weekly appearance on FanGraphs Audio and analyzes all baseball.

Discussed:
• Against the guest’s will, 27-year-old Cincinnati right-handed minor-leaguer Todd Redmond and his invisi-ball.
• Starlin Castro’s contract extension, why the Cubs did that.
• The 19-inning Pittsburgh-St. Louis game and the NL Wild Card race, generally.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 30 min. play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

“We always give him (grief) because he’s got the invisi-ball,” said Kris Medlen, who played with Redmond in Gwinnett this year and Double-A Mississippi in 2008. “He always goes seven or eight innings, but he throws these belt-high to belly button-high 90 mph (fastballs). If I threw them they’d get crushed but it doesn’t. Some things you can’t explain.”

— David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, June 17, 2012

Todd Redmond’s major-league debut this past Saturday wasn’t what even the most forgiving of Mr. Redmond’s supporters would describe as a “rousing success.” The 27-year-old right-hander allowed four runs and seven hits in just 3.1 innings before getting relieved by Alfredo Simon. Nor were his defense-independent numbers any kinder: with his 2:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio and mere five grounders induced (of 15 batted-balls total), Redmond posted a decidedly poor 9.06 xFIP for the game (box).

Despite all his problems, however, it’s notable — one might even say “shocking,” were one in the appropriate mood — that Redmond finished the game with an above-average run value (+0.6 total, +0.9 per 100 thrown) on his fastball, a pitch he threw 65 times and constituted 71% of his 91 total pitches for the game. Conversely, Redmond’s change and slider — which he threw just a combined 25 times — were worth about 3.8 negative runs.

Indeed, Redmond induced swinging strikes on 10 of those 65 fastballs (15.4%) — this, while the league-average swinging-strike rate on four-seam fastballs sits at just 7.0%.

Read the rest of this entry »

Friday night in Colorado, Giancarlo Stanton hit a home run. It was a long home run; it was the longest home run, of this season. This is what it looked like, and ESPN’s Home Run Tracker gave it a distance of 494 feet. The game was played at altitude, sure, but the wind was blowing in. Then Saturday in Colorado, Stanton hit another long home run. That one had a distance of 465 feet, making it Stanton’s second-longest dinger of the year. That home run also allowed Stanton to set a record. Saturday’s was Stanton’s sixth career game in Coors, and it was his sixth career game in Coors with a homer. Stanton became the first player to do that.

It makes perfect sense that Stanton would make a mockery of Colorado, just as it makes perfect sense that Wily Mo Pena would make a mockery of Japan, even though he isn’t, exactly. Stanton’s game is the jaw-dropping longball. Colorado’s game features a lot of longballs. The idea of Stanton playing in Colorado more often brings to mind the idea of some incredible records.

Sunday, Stanton played his seventh career game in Coors. In zero of his plate appearances did he hit a home run.

Read the rest of this entry »

Is it possible for every team in a division to be disappointing? Probably not — somebody has to win, after all, and it is sort of hard to say that a division winner is disappointing (although I’m sure the New York and Boston medias can correct me on that). The 2012 American League Central is coming close to being completely disappointing, though, which is saying something, given the division’s normally low standards. The amazing White Sox are obviously excepted, given that no one really saw them leading the division this late in the year.

As for the rest of the division, the Tigers could still take it (and could get into the playoffs without winning the division), but prior to the season everyone thought they would run away with the division title. The Royals were not expected to win the division given their lack of starting pitching, but the young talent has been very disappointing this year — Danny Duffy got hurt, Mike Moustakas has flatlining for two months, and Eric Hosmer is engaged in a “Who Sucks Worse” contest with Jeff Francoeur that makes one nostalgic for the legendary Mike Jacobs–Jose Guillen battle of 2009. (This would be a good time for everyone to hail my genius). In the meantime, the Twins… oh, who am I kidding, everyone knew the Twins were going to be horrible this year. Speaking of which, where is Posnanski’s annual “Gardy Time!” post?

And then there is Cleveland, who were supposed to have a puncher’s chance to challenge Detroit. What happened there?

Read the rest of this entry »

Prior to this past offseason, five of Dave Cameron’s top ten free agents were starting pitchers. Both CC Sabathia (#3) and C.J. Wilson (#5) landed mega-contracts while Roy Oswalt (#9) decided to take the Pedro Martinez/Roger Clemens route and sign midseason. The other two guys — Hiroki Kuroda (#8) and Edwin Jackson (#10) — signed nearly identical one-year contracts. Eight months later, they share another thing in common: they’re pitching for the team with the best record in their respective league.

Kuroda, 37, landed a $10 million salary from the Yankees. At 3.3 WAR, he’s already had the third-best season of his five-year MLB career and appears poised to zoom past his career-high 4.1 WAR from 2010. Jackson, 28, signed with the Nationals for $11 million, but is having a slightly down year by his standards. He’s at 1.6 WAR and seems likely to a) fall short of the 3.6-3.8 WAR level he’s established these last three years, and b) still provide the Nationals plenty of surplus value.

Read the rest of this entry »

Hello friends, my name is Jeff. You might recognize me from Lookout Landing or Baseball Nation, or from being my mother, Mom. Beginning today, right now, I’m going to be doing a lot of writing over here, and I hope that we can get along famously. If we don’t, remember that it wasn’t my idea for them to hire me. People make mistakes. Now let’s talk about baseball.

I was nervous about starting over in a new place, so I was hoping that Dave would spoon-feed me an easy topic suggestion. Of all the things currently going on in baseball, perhaps the most fascinating scenario is unfolding in Anaheim, and that’s what I’m here to tackle now, as Dave came through in the clutch. Perhaps you’ve noticed that the Angels have fallen on their faces of late. Perhaps you haven’t! Considering what the Angels were supposed to be, this is worthy of some discussion, and then some more.

Read the rest of this entry »

Two months ago, Dale Sveum said this about shortstop Starlin Castro, who forgot how many outs there were on a potential double play ball:

“It’s something that’s obviously unacceptable at any time,” Sveum said Monday.

“Whether we could have turned the double play or not is irrelevant to not knowing how many outs there are in the most important part of the game. These things have got to stop happening or he’s going to stop playing.

“These kind of things are things that my son does in high school, maybe.”

Well, I’m pretty sure Castro won’t be getting benched any time soon, as the Cubs have reportedly agreed to sign him to a seven year, $60 million contract extension that should be finalized in the next week or two. The deal contains a team option that gives the Cubs control over Castro through the 2020 season, buying out up to four free agent seasons in the process.

So, yeah, Castro’s job security isn’t really a question anymore. The question now is whether this was the right bet for the Cubs to make.

Read the rest of this entry »

When Seattle traded Ichiro Suzuki to New York in mid-July, the 38-year-old outfielder owned a mere .281 wOBA and was largely assumed to be on his last legs as a major-league baseball player. He still provided value with his glove, but his 77 wRC+ was simply too unproductive to pencil in as a right fielder every night.

As a New York Yankee, however, Ichiro has enjoyed far greater success and has people dreaming of his six-win years in Seattle.

After last night’s two-home-run outburst against Josh Beckett and the Boston Red Sox, the former MVP has hit .322/.344/.506 with the Bronx Bombers, and his .364 wOBA as a Yankee is well above average in relation to the remainder of American League right fielders.

The overall statistics should obviously be taken with a massive grain of salt due to the standard small sample size concerns. Not to mention he still has only drawn one walk since joining New York, and he also has seen his BABIP increase almost 40-points in that time frame. Plenty of reasons exist as to why we should not trot onto the field at Yankee Stadium and celebrate his re-coronation.

At the same time, Ichiro’s selectivity at the plate has drastically changed since donning pinstripes.

Read the rest of this entry »

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Feature: Sunday’s Best Pitch, Probably
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Feature: Sunday’s Best Pitch, Probably
Regarding Sunday’s Best Pitch, What It Probably Was
Sunday’s best pitch was probably San Diego reliever Cory Burns‘ changeup, which he (i.e. Burns) threw 12 times and on which he (i.e. still Burns) induced seven swinging strikes (for a swinging-strike rate of 58.3%).

Regarding the Changeup, Its Swinging-Strike Rate Usually
The league-average swinging-strike rate on changeups is about 15%, according to Harry Pavlidis of the internet.

Regarding the Changeup, Its Best-Case Swinging-Strike Rate
Here are some pitchers (in no discernible order) with notable changeups and the swinging-strike rates of those same changeups this season:

• Stephen Strasburg, 27.4%
• Felix Hernandez, 15.0%
• Tim Lincecum, 23.6%
• Kelvin Herrera, 24.5%
• Cole Hamels, 28.4%

Read the rest of this entry »