Archive for August, 2012

Consider for a moment that the top three teams in the American League wild card standings right now are the Rays, Orioles, and Athletics. Now consider in the following moment that the three teams right behind them are the Tigers, Angels, and Red Sox. This is not new information, for any of us, but it seems like the kind of thing we might not be appreciating for everything it’s worth. Regardless of how things turn out, this is the way things are toward the end of August. Baseball is amazing.

Now then, because it’s August, trades can still be made that affect regular-season and postseason rosters, and because the wild card race is so tight, teams are looking to make even slight improvements. On Monday night, as announced during their own game, the A’s made what they feel like is an improvement, acquiring Stephen Drew from the Diamondbacks in exchange for minor leaguer Sean Jamieson. Nothing against Sean Jamieson, but this is the last time he’ll be mentioned in this article. For the Diamondbacks, this was not about the talent return; it was about saving money. For the A’s, it was about getting a little better where getting a little better might make all the difference.

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Paul Goldschmidt had some pretty robust projections entering the year — Steamer projected him to have the seventh-highest wOBA among first basemen, for instance — considering that he had just 177 major league plate appearances under his belt. And despite a slow start, the 24-year-old slugger is living up to those projections and then some. If he keeps producing for the final six weeks in the same fashion, he will need to be considered one of the best first basemen in the game.

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In the wake of the Cardinals’ 19-inning loss to the Pirates on Sunday, St. Louis Post Dispatch sports columnist Bernie Miklasz called the Cardinals’ offense phony. He acknowledged that the Cardinals lead the National League in runs scored with 586 and that many Cardinals players line the National League leader boards on offensive statistics. But, Miklasz wrote, “[t]his offense is fraudulent. It can bully teams for a one-night torrent of runs, only to disappear in most close games.”

Is Miklasz right?

Overall, the Cardinals are 65-56 but are 24-11 in games decided by five runs or more.  St. Louis has scored 234 runs in the blowout games and allowed only 142, for a run differential of +92. In other words, the Cardinals have scored 40% of their runs in the 29% of their games that have been decided by five runs or more.

On the flip side, the Cardinals are 13-21 in one-run games. They’ve scored 124 runs in the nail-biters and allowed 132, for a -8 run differential. The one-run games comprise 28% of the Cardinals’ overall record. Their remaining 52 games, or 43% of their schedule, have been neither blowouts nor one-run affairs. And in those, the Cardinals are 28-24, with 228 runs scored and 206 allowed, for a +22 run differential. Overall, St. Louis has scored 106 more runs than they’ve allowed.

Do these numbers mean that the Cardinals’ offense is a fraud? If the Cardinals had either scored ten more runs or allowed ten fewer runs in their 34 one-run games, they’d have five more wins for an 18-16 record in one-run games and a 70-51 record on the season. Ten more runs either way. Does that difference make the offense a fraud?

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An unintended consequence of Melky Cabrera’s 50 game suspension has been an uptick in the amount of conversation about what Nick Swisher is going to get as a free agent this winter. Swisher has been elevated in the free agent outfielder ranks, and is probably #2 behind Josh Hamilton on the list of interesting OF bats that will be looking for new deals this winter.

So, this newfound interest in Swisher’s value led to a column from Jon Heyman, in which he discusses this very topic.

Word going around is, Nick Swisher, the Yankees’ eternally upbeat rightfield power supply, may seek a “Jayson Werth contract” when he hits free agency at the end of the year.

To baseball fans, that is well-known to mean $126 million over seven years. In other words, it’s a lot more money than most folks have guessed so far for Swish.

Second-hand or not, some Yankees people have heard that’s the figure Swisher is thinking about and may at least shoot for, and one other source who’s spoken to Swisher said that, indeed, Swisher has shown real interest in Werth’s deal. It’s believed the two sides have had no extension talks yet, as it is team policy to wait for free agency, except in rare cases.

While the $126-million figure is two to three times more than most of the estimates for Swisher, free agency brings some surprises. The Werth deal, for instance.

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This is not quite the rookie season that many envisioned for Matt Moore. He was supposed to be at worst a contender for the rookie of the year, he was supposed to be one of the top pitchers in the league in just his rookie season. He was supposed to be, essentially, the pitching version of Mike Trout this year, maybe to a slightly lesser extent. While the season totals will not look as impressive as hoped before the season started, he has taken massive strides over the past few months and performed at a very high level.
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Eleven innings after his departure Jaime Garcia’s return to the Cardinals’ rotation was buried by the absurdity of one of the season’s longest games. After battling back from one run down in the 16th inning, the Cardinals scraped one across to keep the game going, but a Pedro Alvarez home run in the 19th sealed a victory for the Pirates.

But as we look long-term for the Cardinals – now tied with the Pirates and Giants for the second National League Wild Card – it could be Garcia’s excellent start that carries the most meaning of anything from Sunday’s action. The lefty lasted eight innings in his first start since June 5th, striking out 10 and allowing just two unearned runs on five hits and no walks.

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The double-surprise success of Fernando Rodney has received appropriate documentation and laud, but a grander epic is unfolding daily in the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen.

The Rays ‘pen has the second best ERA and third best FIP in the MLB. Their ERA trails only the National League Reds, and their FIP has only one AL rival, the New York Yankees. Only the Rangers (30) and the Diamondbacks (35) have fewer meltdowns than the Rays bullpen at 36 (and the Rangers have a much better offense, meaning fewer meltdown opportunities).

And it has been the same story since 2008. The Rays bullpen has made relief magic on a mom-and-pop-store budge:

Source: USA Today.

The Rays are paying approximately one (1) Jonathan Papelbon this season for one of the best bullpens in the Majors. And they are accomplishing this one excellent pitch at a time.
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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Update: Trade-Deadline Players
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Update: Trade-Deadline Players
Regarding What We Do Periodically
Periodically, in the Daily Notes, we become troublingly intimate with the idea of our own mortality and weep silently, inconsolably until the dawn light.

Regarding What Else We Do Periodically
Also periodically, in these Notes, we revisit the players who were traded at the July 31st deadline and make note of their performances since those trades.

Hyperlinks of Note
Click this hyperlinked text to see a custom leaderboard of all the players traded within a week of this year’s July 31st trade deadline. Click this other hyperlinked text for the pitchers who match that same description.

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Ben and Sam discuss Kenny Williams’ contention that the poorly rated White Sox farm system is just misunderstood, then consider whether the Cubs should be concerned about Starlin Castro’s makeup.