Note: I found some errors in the data. Data below has been corrected, as well as some conclusions — BP

Yesterday, Jeff Zimmerman examined how Tim Lincecum’s performance has depended to some extent on his ability to pitch to the edges of the plate. Last year, Lincecum was one of the worst starters in the game in terms of the percentage of his pitches thrown to the black. Coincidently (or not so coincidently), Lincecum suffered through his worst season as a professional.

As with many things, Jeff and I happened to be investigating this issue of the edge simultaneously. Of course, we were not the first to dabble in this area. Back in 2009, Dave Allen noted that differences in pitch location–specifically horizontal location–led to differences in BABIP.

Like Dave, I was curious about the overall impact that throwing to the edges–or the black–has on overall performance. My thinking about pitchers throwing to the edges naturally led to some hypotheses:

1. Throwing a higher percentage of pitches on the edges leads to lower FIP.
2. Throwing a higher percentage of pitches on the edges leads to lower ERA.
3. Throwing a higher percentage of pitches on the edges leads to lower BABIP.
4. Throwing a higher percentage of pitches on the edges is associated with lower four-seam fastball velocity.

I think the first three hypotheses are intuitive, but the last one stems from the idea that as a pitcher ages and loses zip on their fastball they cannot remain successful unless they increase their avoidance of the heart of the strike zone.

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After a quick glance at the Top 15 list it should be fairly clear that this is one of the weakest minor league systems in Major League Baseball. Poor drafts (mainly due to lost draft picks from free agent acquisitions) and trades have decimated the system, which has almost no starting pitcher depth to speak of.

#1 Kaleb Cowart (3B)

The 18th overall selection of the 2010 amateur draft, Cowart has moved methodically through the Angels system. The third baseman split 2012 between two A-ball levels with modest results. Cowart, 20, has shown the ability to do a little bit of everything – flashing five tools. He currently has good gap power that is transitioning into more over-the-fence pop and he’s not afraid to take a walk. He swings and misses a fair amount but he’s young and still improving his pitch recognition. A switch-hitter, he tends to hit for better average from the right side of the plate but flashes solid power from the left side. When I saw him in April, Cowart was swinging around the ball and showed a need to get quicker to the ball.

At the hot corner, Cowart shows a strong arm –although it’s inaccurate at times –and sure hands. The athletic fielder has average range.The Georgia native was a two-way player in high school so his slower development is not a surprise — or a red flag. He has the potential to develop into an above-average third baseman, both on offense and defense. After struggling in the Arizona Fall League at the conclusion of the regular season, Cowart could return to the high-A level to open 2013 with an eye on reaching double-A in the second half of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam answer several questions submitted but not answered during Ben’s Monday chat.

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People will tell you that practice makes perfect. This is untrue, at least as far as it has to do with humans. Humans will forever be imperfect, and a better and more accurate saying would be “practice makes better”. If you’re trying to do something, and you practice it, you’ll probably do better than you would have had you not practiced it. This is the whole idea behind practice, so I’m glad we finally have this cleared up.

Major-league baseball players have practiced baseball. An awful lot! For years and years and years, on a regular basis, and you could even make the argument that games are just practice for future games. Everything is practice for the next such opportunity. What we can figure is that these players are better for having practiced, and without so much practice, they might and presumably would be worse. We can’t really measure the effect of practice, though, since they’re all practicing all the time. We don’t have a practice-less control group.

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In a foot race, I’d place my money on Roman Quinn over any prospect not named Billy Hamilton. Heads up, it would be close — very close. 2012 was a historic year for minor league base stealers as Hamilton attempted 192 steals and was successful 155 times — breaking the record held by Vince Coleman. This feat overshadowed Astros prospect Delino Deshields Jr. as his paltry total of 101 stolen bases paled in comparison. In 2013, a new prospect will push triple digit steals if given the green light — Phillies shortstop prospect Roman Quinn.

Video after the jump

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Like many Americans, Delmon Young is presently unemployed. Like few presently unemployed Americans, Young should shortly become employed, and somewhat lucratively. Young, presumably, will land a major-league contract, and even the major-league minimum guarantees several hundreds of thousands of dollars. Relative to the rest of the unemployed, Young’s in a good situation. He’s in a far worse situation, though, than people figured he would be around this point in his career.

Delmon Young is 27 years old. This guy, he’s 27. Granted, this guy is even younger, but we’re not really here to judge people on their looks. Young is 27, and he’s more newly 27 than nearly 28. He’s younger than Mitch Moreland. He’s younger than David Price, and he’s only months older than Mark Trumbo. This is supposed to be Young’s career peak, and Young was supposed to have an incredible career peak. Young, last year, was bad. By our metrics, in three of his six full-ish big-league seasons he’s been below replacement-level. In another, he was exactly replacement-level. For his career, he’s at 0.8 WAR. In his initial 30-game campaign in 2006, he was worth 0.9 WAR. You’re getting the Delmon Young idea.

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If you go up to the toolbar at the top of the screen and click on leaders, then switch over to the pitching tab, you will see three names at the top of the list:

1. Justin Verlander
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Clayton Kershaw

Those three are, without a doubt, three of the best pitchers in baseball. You could probably make a pretty good case that they are the three best pitchers in baseball. And, last year, they rated #1, #2, and #3 in pitcher WAR, which is why they’re the first three names on the list of the default leaderboard. But, they also have something else in common; they’re all due to become free agents in two years.

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Tim Lincecum’s resume contains the following items: 2 time Cy Young award winner, 4 time All-Star and twice World Series Champion. With all the achievements over the last 5 seasons, he was relegated to a long relief once the Giants made the playoffs because he was no longer effective as a starter. Lincecum’s problem is he can no longer just throw the ball across the plate and hope a batter just swings and misses. If he wants any hope of returning to be the starter he once was, he now needs to learn how to pitch.

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Buster Posey will be a San Francisco Giant at least through the end of the 2016 season. The upcoming season will be his first as an arbitration-eligible player. He’ll have three more of those before he becomes a free agent. That is, unless Posey and the Giants agree to a long-term contract that buys out one or more of his free-agent years. Should Posey commit to the Giants long-term? Should the Giants commit to Posey? What kind of deal makes sense?

Hard to believe, sometimes, but the reigning National League most valuable player has played in only 305 major-league games and amassed only 1,255 plate appearances. His first major-league at bat came on Sept. 11, 2009, during a brief September call-up. (He struck out). In 2010, the Giants didn’t call Posey up from the minors until late May, as Bengie Molina continued to handle the everyday catching duties. Even then, Posey played first base for a month before the Giants traded Molina to the Rangers and installed Posey behind the dish.

In 443 plate appearances in 108 games, Posey hit .305/.357/.505 with 18 home runs. His 134 wRC+ tied him with Ryan Braun for 15th-best in the National League. Posey was named National League Rookie of the Year and guided the Giants’ vaunted pitching staff during the team’s World Series run. He earned $400,000 but delivered $16.7 million in value with a 4.2 WAR.

Posey’s 2011 campaign was cut short by the devastating ankle and leg injury he suffered in a home plate collision with Scott Cousins on May 25. In his 45 games that season, Posey dropped off from his sensational rookie numbers and hit only .284/.368/.389 in 185 plate appearances. The power numbers, in particular, looked concerning but may very well have stabilized during a full season. Posey earned $575,000 but delivered $8 million worth of value in just two months of playing time.

And then there’s 2012. National League Batting Champion*. National League MVP. National League Comeback Player of the Year. World Series champion. Posey played 148 games and had 610 plate appearances and he did the most with them. He hit .336/.408/.509 with 24 home runs. He led the National League with 8 WAR, and if his base running wasn’t so poorly rated, his WAR could have reached 10. The Giants paid him $615,000 and he gave his team $36 million in value.

What does all of this mean for a possible long-term deal between Posey and the Giants?

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