Archive for 2013

Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Jacoby Ellsbury

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.

Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.

In this edition: Jacoby Ellsbury.

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A Matchup of the Day and a Mismatch for the Ages

One of the things about advanced metrics is that they can tell you things you might not have guessed. The other day, for example, I wrote about a showdown between Alex Cobb and Danny Salazar, and by some of the numbers, that looked like one hell of a potential duel. Thursday, A.J. Burnett and Adam Wainwright also looked like one hell of a potential duel. Wainwright, people know about — he’d be another year’s Cy Young winner. Burnett, though, was more quietly outstanding, after being dismissed by New York. Wainwright finished with the National League’s third-best FIP. Burnett finished fifth, just in front of Cliff Lee and two of his teammates. On that basis you could argue Burnett is the Pirates’ best starter.

One of the things about A.J. Burnett is that, who knows? We’ve never really had a great measure of starting pitcher inconsistency, but if we did, Burnett would probably be at or near the top of the list. Inconsistency has long been his reputation, and so long as the potential is there for a meltdown, it can never mentally be counted out. And Thursday, Burnett melted down. In what could’ve been a compelling showdown of aces, Wainwright was ahead seven runs before he threw a pitch in the fourth. When the Pirates pulled within six, the Cardinals extended the deficit right back. Both starting pitchers showed up, but only Wainwright did more than that.

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Player’s View: Who’s the Best in the Game?

A question was recently asked of  14 players. It doesn’t have an easy answer. Given the subjectivity involved, it doesn’t even have a right answer.

Who is the best player in the game?

Their responses are listed below in alphabetical order.

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Michael Bowden, Chicago Cubs pitcher: “Miguel Cabrera.” [No elaboration.]

Jackie Bradley, Jr. Boston Red Sox outfielder: “The best player in baseball is Mike Trout. He’s got the overall package. It’s not just hitting — and he can definitely hit — but also his defense and his base paths. He’s got the whole package.”

Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles infielder: “Miguel Cabrera. We’re talking about a guy who might win the triple crown again this year. It’s ridiculous that he did it last year and might do it again. He’s hitting about .350 and he’s not even 100 percent healthy. I’d say he’s definitely the best player in baseball right now.”

Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins infielder; “Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter. He separates himself from every other hitter in this league, because he hits for both power and average, which is tough to do. As far as offensive categories, he’s definitely the best. As good as Mike Trout is, he’s also only in his second year. Miggy has been doing it for 10 years. It’s not like he plays a bad third base, either. I‘d have to go with Miggy as the best player in the game.”

Brian Duensing, Minnesota Twins pitcher; “Miguel Cabrera. Personally, I don’t know if it’s possible to get him out. He plays a decent third base. He has a lot of power and can hit to any part of the field. It’s tough to say [best] in all of baseball, because we don’t see the National League guys as much, but Cabrera is the first player that comes to mind.”

Sam Fuld, Tampa Bay Rays outfielder: “Mike Trout. He dominates in all three facets of the game: hitting, baserunning and defense. He looks and runs like an NFL linebacker but possesses as good a set of baseball skills as just about anyone in the game.”

Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers infielder: “Miguel Cabrera. Absolutely. He’s the best hitter, and he’s pretty good defensively, too.”

Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays pitcher: “I’ve got to say Miguel Cabrera. He’s the biggest threat there is at the plate, and he plays a good enough third base. He puts the team on his back. He has presence. When you play them, you circle his name on the lineup card.”

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher: “Mike Trout. Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter in the game, no doubt, but Mike Trout is the best player.”

Adam Lind, Toronto Blue jays outfielder: “Mike Trout, I guess, if you’re going to go with overall. He does everything.”

Nate McLouth, Baltimore Orioles outfielder: “I think Mike Trout is. He can do everything. There are a handful of guys you could pick, but as far as all-around game, he’s the best there is.”

Hunter Pence, San Francisco Giants outfielder: “I think it’s safe to say it’s between Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera. WAR? I think it’s kind of a silly statistic. I don’t even know what factors are involved. I remember reading about it a while ago and seeing that you can lose points for the position you play. I don’t understand all that stuff. If I was to look at what I think helps wins games, it’s run production: RBI and runs scored. OPS is a powerful stat, and stealing bases, and defense. That’s what I would look at. It’s fun to analyze that stuff, though.”

Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants catcher: “Can I have two? Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout. Is that a pretty common answer? It would be a tough call there.”

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Boston Red Sox catcher: “If you’re talking all-around player, it’s Mike Trout. He plays good defense, steals bases, hits for power, hits for average. If you’re talking best hitter, even if he’s mediocre at his position, you’ve got Miguel Cabrera. He’s just an unbelievable hitter. But best overall player, Mike Trout.”

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FINAL TALLY

Mike Trout: Seven votes (Bradley, Fuld, Kershaw, Lind, McLouth, Pence ½, Posey ½, Saltalamacchia)

Miguel Cabrera: Seven votes (Bowden, Davis, Dozier, Duensing, Gonzalez, Janssen, Pence ½, Posey ½)

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Note: Thanks to Eno Sarris for procuring the quotes from Adrian Gonzalez, Clayton Kershaw, Hunter Pence and Buster Posey, and to Brandon Warne of ESPN Minnesota for procuring the quotes from Brian Dozier and Brian Duensing.


Analyzing the Umpires: ALDS Edition

After examining the National League division round umpires yesterday, I will look at the American ones today. I will look to see if they have any unique strike calling patterns and post their 2013 K/9 and BB/9 scaled to the league average strikeout and walk rates. Again I have included images of their called strike zones compared to the league average called zone.

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Effectively Wild Episode 300: Brian Kenny on Sabermetrics, Broadcasting, and Confrontation

Ben and Sam talk to Brian Kenny about the reaction to his campaign to kill the win and why sabermetrics needs a confrontational face.


The Persnickety Atlanta Braves

As the Braves prepare to enter the Division Series, I want to return to two controversial incidents at the end of their regular season, when they embroiled themselves in two separate incidents when a batter admired his home run for far too long. First it was Jose Fernandez, the inspiring and amazing Rookie of the Year candidate, hitting his first home run in the majors; then it was Carlos Gomez, taking revenge for what he perceived to have been an intentional hit by pitch three months earlier. In both cases, Brian McCann got rather peeved. (He also got memed.)
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FanGraphs Audio: Rob Neyer Is Family

Episode 384
Rob Neyer is presently the National Baseball Editor for SB Nation and has been a champion of sabermetrics for about 20 years. He’s also the very famous guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 49 min play time.)

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Jansen and Kimbrel and Sharing the Summit

A little under an hour east of here, rising behind one of the world’s largest free-standing natural monoliths, there lies a peak known as Hamilton Mountain. The trail up passes by a breathtaking waterfall and breathstopping cliffs, and the summit affords magnificent views of the Columbia River Gorge and the Cascade peaks towering beyond. As you head out from the trailhead, there’s only one way to go, passing through shrubs and underneath power lines before entering a forest. Soon, though, one arrives at a junction. There are two paths and a sign with arrows, reading “Difficult” and “More Difficult.” The choice is up to the hiker, but no matter which way you pick, you’re going to get to the top.

Mariano Rivera is retiring, which is going to allow us to re-visit the question of who is the game’s best closer. Not that we couldn’t address the question before, but Rivera was the default response, and sometimes people got emotional if you went another way. Now Rivera has removed himself from the pool, and there’s a small host of current candidates to take his place. Among them are Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel and Los Angeles’ Kenley Jansen, and statistically it can be hard to tell the two apart. Remarkably, they occupy very similar planes. Remarkably, they get there along two very different paths.

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Juan Uribe

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.

Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.

In this edition: Juan Uribe.

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A Minor Review of 2013: Braves

There is always a bit of a lull between the end of the minor league playoffs in September and the start of the annual top prospects lists in early November. Because of that gap, I’m breathing new life into an old feature that I wrote for the site in FanGraphs’ infancy back in 2008 and 2009.

The series ‘A Minor Review of 2013’ will look back on some of the major happenings in each MLB organization since the beginning of April as a primer for the upcoming FanGraphs Top 10+5 prospects lists. This series will run throughout September and October. I hope you enjoy the series and are eagerly anticipating the start of ‘Prospect List Season.’

The player listed in the sleeper section was featured in a pre-season series that looked at one fringe prospect in each organization that was expected to take a big step forward during 2013, chosen by myself, a scout or a front office talent evaluator.

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