2015 ZiPS Projections – Detroit Tigers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
While it might seem as though, at points during his MVP rivalry with Mike Trout, that this site’s authors made it their business to convince all of America about how Miguel Cabrera was a worthless trash heap of a ballplayer, that’s very clearly not the case. What he is, in reality, is one of the most talented hitters in baseball history. Indeed, among all qualified hitters ever, Cabrera has produced the 26th-best park-adjusted batting line (tied with Joe DiMaggio, for example). Even a couple years after Cabrera’s 30th birthday, ZiPS still regards him as an elite batsman.

One thing Cabrera wasn’t, really, was a talented defensive third baseman. Two years ago, for example, ZiPS projected Cabrera to save -6 runs (or concede +6 runs, as it were) at third base. Not excellent, that. By way of comparison, however, consider current third baseman Nick Castellanos’s projection at that same position: -12 runs saved (or +12 runs conceded, as it were). Even more not excellent, that. He’s forecast to produce an above-average batting line, but it would seem as though some manner of change — either moving off of, or steadily improving at, the position — is necessary.

Pitchers
The Tigers have featured some almost laughably talented rotations in recent years. Over the last three seasons, for example, Detroit starters have produced a collective 65.4 WAR. The distance between them and second-place Washington is roughly equivalent to the distance between Washington and 19th-place Milwaukee. The likely departure of Max Scherzer, however — coupled with the trade of Rick Porcello to Boston — renders the rotation less well balanced than in previous seasons. Alfredo Simon (a strike-thrower who features one of the league’s hardest fastballs) and Shane Greene (who recorded a 90 xFIP- last year in nearly 80 innings) aren’t without merits. It’s just, those merits don’t influence ZiPS’ computer math significantly at the moment.

The bullpen was also laughable at points in 2014, but not due to a surfeit of talent. Rather, they inspired the sort of laughter one produces after having just been informed he’s being audited by the IRS. Tiger relievers combined for either the fourth– or third-lowest WAR in the majors, depending on whether one uses FIP or ERA to calculate it. In either case, not great. Some positive regression is expected, but almost the same exact personnel returns and it remains a weak area for the club.

Bench/Prospects
The club’s commitment to winning in the present has necessarily come at the expense of their future — at least so far as high-end prospects are concerned. Catcher James McCann isn’t elite, but serves as a possible alternative to Bryan Holaday in the backup catcher role, or as an adequate injury replacement for Alex Avila. Shortstop Dixon Machado plays above-average defense at that position and recorded a positive walk-to-strikeout differential as a 22-year-old last year at Double-A Erie. He offers a promising skill set. Among starting-pitcher prospects, only Kyle Lobstein and Drew VerHagen are projected to produce something better than replacement-level innings.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Tigers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Miguel Cabrera	R	32	1B	657	90	179	39	1	31	113	3	1
Ian Kinsler	R	33	2B	675	88	167	35	4	15	76	15	7
Yoenis Cespedes	R	29	LF	627	88	159	29	5	27	103	10	4
Alex Avila	L	28	C	454	43	89	20	1	12	53	1	1
Victor Martinez	B	36	DH	530	58	145	27	0	18	79	1	1
J.D. Martinez	R	27	LF	527	57	138	28	3	21	90	5	2
Nick Castellanos	R	23	3B	621	61	160	34	4	17	77	3	2
James McCann	R	25	C	437	39	100	23	0	6	40	6	2
Anthony Gose	L	24	CF	575	66	133	19	6	6	44	34	13
Dixon Machado	R	23	SS	432	43	96	20	2	4	31	6	4
Hernan Perez	R	24	SS	572	56	141	24	4	6	45	20	6
Jose Iglesias	R	25	SS	413	38	96	11	1	3	30	9	4
Manny Pina	R	28	C	262	25	56	10	0	5	22	1	0
Bryan Holaday	R	27	C	278	23	59	11	1	3	25	2	1
Miguel Gonzalez	R	24	C	214	20	48	9	1	2	18	1	1
Rajai Davis	R	34	LF	431	54	107	21	2	6	39	35	10
Mike Hessman	R	37	1B	438	51	89	17	1	24	59	2	2
Daniel Fields	L	24	CF	437	42	97	17	4	7	37	14	5
Don Kelly	L	35	3B	203	23	42	5	1	3	13	3	1
Brandon Douglas	R	29	2B	411	36	92	15	2	4	30	9	3
Craig Albernaz	R	32	C	157	11	28	4	0	0	8	3	1
Andrew Romine	B	29	SS	397	40	86	10	1	3	25	13	5
Xavier Avery	L	25	LF	521	58	117	21	2	6	41	23	8
Steven Moya	L	23	RF	510	55	115	23	3	21	64	10	3
Tyler Collins	L	25	LF	541	54	119	21	2	15	59	9	4
Sea Bass Gonzalez	R	38	SS	59	6	11	1	1	0	5	0	0
Wade Gaynor	R	27	3B	485	43	88	22	2	11	45	8	2
Marcus Lemon	L	27	2B	306	26	65	10	2	2	20	3	4
Jordan Lennerton	L	29	1B	540	51	106	21	1	13	49	0	2
Wynton Bernard	R	24	RF	597	61	136	26	3	6	43	27	17
Mean Dean Green	L	26	1B	436	39	100	19	1	8	42	1	1
Trevor Crowe	B	31	LF	320	31	70	13	1	4	27	10	7

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Miguel Cabrera	657	10.5%	16.0%	.232	.330	.310	.382	.542	.386
Ian Kinsler	675	6.7%	10.7%	.143	.285	.272	.326	.415	.326
Yoenis Cespedes	627	6.2%	19.1%	.207	.303	.275	.324	.482	.349
Alex Avila	454	13.2%	30.4%	.150	.320	.229	.333	.379	.317
Victor Martinez	530	8.3%	8.7%	.170	.302	.303	.360	.473	.348
J.D. Martinez	527	6.1%	23.9%	.200	.339	.283	.328	.483	.352
Nick Castellanos	621	6.4%	19.6%	.162	.326	.280	.327	.442	.335
James McCann	437	3.7%	21.3%	.101	.298	.244	.280	.345	.278
Anthony Gose	575	7.0%	22.8%	.094	.328	.254	.314	.348	.299
Dixon Machado	432	7.6%	16.4%	.092	.290	.246	.307	.338	.287
Hernan Perez	572	3.8%	13.8%	.092	.295	.262	.292	.354	.287
Jose Iglesias	413	4.6%	15.0%	.058	.294	.253	.298	.311	.271
Manny Pina	262	6.1%	16.4%	.105	.264	.234	.288	.339	.280
Bryan Holaday	278	5.0%	19.8%	.087	.281	.232	.277	.319	.263
Miguel Gonzalez	214	5.1%	18.2%	.086	.291	.242	.288	.328	.273
Rajai Davis	431	4.9%	16.9%	.107	.312	.268	.310	.375	.309
Mike Hessman	438	7.3%	29.7%	.228	.260	.223	.281	.451	.317
Daniel Fields	437	5.5%	27.2%	.114	.321	.241	.291	.355	.290
Don Kelly	203	9.4%	14.8%	.088	.262	.232	.307	.320	.282
Brandon Douglas	411	4.9%	16.5%	.082	.283	.241	.283	.323	.270
Craig Albernaz	157	3.8%	24.8%	.028	.267	.196	.237	.224	.206
Andrew Romine	397	6.3%	19.1%	.058	.291	.237	.289	.295	.263
Xavier Avery	521	7.3%	24.0%	.091	.324	.248	.307	.339	.291
Steven Moya	510	3.3%	32.7%	.189	.310	.236	.263	.425	.300
Tyler Collins	541	6.3%	22.0%	.141	.282	.238	.290	.379	.297
Sea Bass Gonzalez	59	3.4%	20.3%	.053	.244	.193	.220	.246	.209
Wade Gaynor	485	5.6%	34.0%	.131	.279	.196	.248	.327	.258
Marcus Lemon	306	4.9%	21.6%	.070	.289	.228	.268	.298	.248
Jordan Lennerton	540	9.8%	27.0%	.129	.286	.220	.299	.349	.289
Wynton Bernard	597	6.2%	18.9%	.092	.303	.249	.301	.341	.281
Mean Dean Green	436	4.6%	21.3%	.111	.299	.246	.291	.357	.287
Trevor Crowe	320	5.9%	17.2%	.091	.274	.235	.279	.326	.268

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Miguel Cabrera	657	8.1	149	2	4.8	Frank Thomas
Ian Kinsler	675	5.0	101	8	3.5	Damion Easley
Yoenis Cespedes	627	5.9	116	5	3.1	Mike Devereaux
Alex Avila	454	4.4	94	-1	2.3	Rick Wilkins
Victor Martinez	530	6.6	125	0	2.0	Harold Baines
J.D. Martinez	527	6.0	118	-4	1.8	Jermaine Dye
Nick Castellanos	621	5.4	108	-12	1.6	Fernando Tatis
James McCann	437	3.5	70	6	1.4	Robert Machado
Anthony Gose	575	4.1	81	3	1.4	Everett Graham
Dixon Machado	432	3.7	76	5	1.2	Howie Clark
Hernan Perez	572	3.9	76	2	1.2	Gary Cates
Jose Iglesias	413	3.4	67	6	0.9	Mike Gallego
Manny Pina	262	3.5	71	-1	0.4	Pedro Grifol
Bryan Holaday	278	3.1	63	1	0.3	Angelo Encarnacion
Miguel Gonzalez	214	3.3	68	0	0.3	Mike Knapp
Rajai Davis	431	4.7	86	-2	0.2	Dan Gladden
Mike Hessman	438	4.4	96	0	0.1	Deron Johnson
Daniel Fields	437	3.8	76	-3	0.1	Mike Stellern
Don Kelly	203	3.5	72	-2	-0.1	Dan Rohn
Brandon Douglas	411	3.3	65	1	-0.1	Casey Smith
Craig Albernaz	157	1.9	27	4	-0.1	Charlie Greene
Andrew Romine	397	3.1	60	-1	-0.2	Frank Mattox
Xavier Avery	521	3.9	76	0	-0.3	Raphael Hampton
Steven Moya	510	4.0	84	-2	-0.3	Tate Seefried
Tyler Collins	541	3.9	81	-3	-0.5	Brad Bierley
Sea Bass Gonzalez	59	1.8	27	-2	-0.5	Mark Belanger
Wade Gaynor	485	2.8	56	2	-0.6	David Maroul
Marcus Lemon	306	2.6	55	1	-0.6	Frank Moore
Jordan Lennerton	540	3.5	76	3	-0.7	Todd Mensik
Wynton Bernard	597	3.5	75	-1	-0.9	Joel Wolfe
Mean Dean Green	436	3.7	76	-1	-1.0	Guillermo Velasquez
Trevor Crowe	320	3.1	65	-2	-1.1	Doug Dascenzo

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Max Scherzer	R	30	31	31	200.0	231	58	18	171	76	71
David Price	L	29	31	31	210.7	204	40	23	210	92	86
Justin Verlander	R	32	31	31	202.3	183	60	18	196	91	85
Anibal Sanchez	R	31	26	25	152.0	138	40	11	143	62	58
Shane Greene	R	26	29	26	140.7	115	53	14	150	75	70
Alfredo Simon	R	34	25	25	152.7	94	47	17	168	83	78
Blaine Hardy	L	28	47	7	78.7	72	28	8	76	36	34
Joakim Soria	R	31	41	0	36.7	38	10	3	34	15	14
Drew VerHagen	R	24	22	22	116.3	58	39	11	134	68	64
Al Alburquerque	R	29	58	0	50.7	62	22	6	44	22	21
Joe Nathan	R	40	54	0	50.0	49	21	4	46	22	21
Kyle Lobstein	L	25	29	28	155.7	107	58	19	177	95	89
Bruce Rondon	R	24	44	0	39.7	39	20	4	38	20	19
Joba Chamberlain	R	29	53	0	50.0	45	20	5	50	26	24
Alex Wilson	R	28	53	0	66.0	48	27	7	67	34	32
Joel Hanrahan	R	32	49	0	44.0	47	26	6	39	22	21
Phil Coke	L	32	58	0	51.0	40	18	5	55	27	25
Ian Krol	L	24	58	0	49.7	45	16	7	51	27	25
Chad Smith	R	25	39	3	58.0	41	21	7	64	33	31
Evan Reed	R	29	48	0	60.0	45	27	5	64	33	31
Bryan Augenstein	R	28	28	0	44.7	30	17	5	50	27	25
Daniel Schlereth	L	29	26	0	25.7	20	18	3	28	17	16
Luke Putkonen	R	29	30	0	38.0	29	17	5	42	24	22
Jose Valdez	R	25	45	0	45.0	42	30	6	46	28	26
Guido Knudson	R	25	37	1	57.3	43	25	8	63	35	33
Omar Duran	L	25	35	0	48.3	49	37	6	47	30	28
Buck Farmer	R	24	22	20	93.7	71	34	17	107	63	59
Jheyson Manzueta	R	25	35	0	58.7	38	27	7	66	36	34
Lefty Below	L	29	22	15	87.0	43	35	13	106	60	56
Josh Zeid	R	28	51	0	51.7	44	26	8	56	33	31
Joshua Turley	L	24	26	21	122.7	74	47	19	143	82	77
Angel Nesbitt	R	24	51	0	61.7	47	28	9	67	39	36
Alberto Cabrera	R	26	45	5	83.0	69	39	14	91	54	50
Warwick Saupold	R	25	26	20	111.0	71	55	18	129	78	73
Melvin Mercedes	R	24	51	0	58.7	29	17	10	72	41	38
Will Startup	L	30	37	0	54.7	29	23	10	67	41	38
Tim Melville	R	25	16	16	69.0	42	45	13	84	56	52
Kyle Ryan	L	23	27	24	136.3	68	45	25	168	98	92
Derek Hankins	R	31	25	19	108.0	41	36	22	143	86	80
Shawn Hill	R	34	20	18	106.7	41	37	23	143	88	82
Edgar De La Rosa	R	24	25	23	113.3	57	59	23	142	92	86

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Max Scherzer	200.0	829	27.9%	7.0%	.296	3.19	3.27	80	82
David Price	210.7	882	23.1%	4.5%	.306	3.67	3.57	92	89
Justin Verlander	202.3	863	21.2%	7.0%	.298	3.78	3.76	94	94
Anibal Sanchez	152.0	639	21.6%	6.3%	.295	3.43	3.43	86	86
Shane Greene	140.7	625	18.4%	8.5%	.313	4.48	4.44	112	111
Alfredo Simon	152.7	673	14.0%	7.0%	.298	4.60	4.70	115	117
Blaine Hardy	78.7	340	21.2%	8.2%	.298	3.89	4.12	97	103
Joakim Soria	36.7	154	24.7%	6.5%	.307	3.44	3.29	86	82
Drew VerHagen	116.3	522	11.1%	7.5%	.302	4.95	4.85	123	121
Al Alburquerque	50.7	218	28.4%	10.1%	.304	3.73	3.93	93	98
Joe Nathan	50.0	217	22.6%	9.7%	.296	3.78	3.70	94	92
Kyle Lobstein	155.7	702	15.2%	8.3%	.310	5.15	4.94	128	123
Bruce Rondon	39.7	177	22.0%	11.3%	.301	4.31	4.41	108	110
Joba Chamberlain	50.0	220	20.5%	9.1%	.304	4.32	4.18	108	104
Alex Wilson	66.0	292	16.4%	9.2%	.291	4.36	4.77	109	119
Joel Hanrahan	44.0	197	23.9%	13.2%	.282	4.30	4.96	107	124
Phil Coke	51.0	226	17.7%	8.0%	.309	4.41	4.07	110	101
Ian Krol	49.7	216	20.8%	7.4%	.301	4.53	4.41	113	110
Chad Smith	58.0	259	15.8%	8.1%	.305	4.81	4.82	120	120
Evan Reed	60.0	271	16.6%	10.0%	.311	4.65	4.56	116	114
Bryan Augenstein	44.7	201	14.9%	8.5%	.306	5.04	4.80	126	120
Daniel Schlereth	25.7	123	16.2%	14.6%	.308	5.61	5.31	140	132
Luke Putkonen	38.0	173	16.8%	9.8%	.308	5.21	5.16	130	129
Jose Valdez	45.0	211	19.9%	14.2%	.308	5.20	5.48	130	137
Guido Knudson	57.3	260	16.5%	9.6%	.304	5.18	5.16	129	129
Omar Duran	48.3	229	21.4%	16.2%	.306	5.21	5.49	130	137
Buck Farmer	93.7	422	16.8%	8.1%	.307	5.67	5.64	141	141
Jheyson Manzueta	58.7	269	14.1%	10.0%	.306	5.22	5.27	130	131
Lefty Below	87.0	402	10.7%	8.7%	.304	5.79	5.78	144	144
Josh Zeid	51.7	237	18.6%	11.0%	.307	5.40	5.30	135	132
Joshua Turley	122.7	558	13.3%	8.4%	.302	5.65	5.63	141	140
Angel Nesbitt	61.7	280	16.8%	10.0%	.302	5.25	5.36	131	134
Alberto Cabrera	83.0	379	18.2%	10.3%	.306	5.42	5.49	135	137
Warwick Saupold	111.0	517	13.7%	10.6%	.303	5.92	5.98	148	149
Melvin Mercedes	58.7	265	10.9%	6.4%	.301	5.83	5.68	145	142
Will Startup	54.7	254	11.4%	9.1%	.301	6.26	6.22	156	155
Tim Melville	69.0	336	12.5%	13.4%	.306	6.78	6.84	169	171
Kyle Ryan	136.3	622	10.9%	7.2%	.300	6.07	6.01	151	150
Derek Hankins	108.0	503	8.2%	7.2%	.305	6.67	6.54	166	163
Shawn Hill	106.7	500	8.2%	7.4%	.306	6.92	6.72	173	168
Edgar De La Rosa	113.3	541	10.5%	10.9%	.302	6.83	6.83	170	170

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Max Scherzer	200.0	10.40	2.61	0.81	128	5.3	Kevin Appier
David Price	210.7	8.71	1.71	0.98	112	4.3	Greg Swindell
Justin Verlander	202.3	8.14	2.67	0.80	108	3.8	Tim Belcher
Anibal Sanchez	152.0	8.17	2.37	0.65	119	3.5	A.J. Burnett
Shane Greene	140.7	7.36	3.39	0.90	92	1.4	Jason Grimsley
Alfredo Simon	152.7	5.54	2.77	1.00	89	1.3	Aaron Sele
Blaine Hardy	78.7	8.23	3.20	0.91	105	0.9	Dave Rucker
Joakim Soria	36.7	9.32	2.45	0.74	119	0.4	Marvin Freeman
Drew VerHagen	116.3	4.49	3.02	0.85	83	0.4	Michael Macdonald
Al Alburquerque	50.7	11.01	3.91	1.07	110	0.4	Ryne Duren
Joe Nathan	50.0	8.82	3.78	0.72	108	0.4	Greg Harris
Kyle Lobstein	155.7	6.18	3.35	1.10	80	0.2	Nate Robertson
Bruce Rondon	39.7	8.84	4.53	0.91	95	0.0	Santiago Casilla
Joba Chamberlain	50.0	8.10	3.60	0.90	95	0.0	David Holdridge
Alex Wilson	66.0	6.55	3.68	0.95	94	0.0	Matt Ryan
Joel Hanrahan	44.0	9.61	5.32	1.23	93	0.0	Frank LaCorte
Phil Coke	51.0	7.06	3.18	0.88	93	0.0	C.J. Nitkowski
Ian Krol	49.7	8.15	2.90	1.27	90	-0.1	Tom Meagher
Chad Smith	58.0	6.36	3.26	1.09	85	-0.1	Jason Cole
Evan Reed	60.0	6.75	4.05	0.75	88	-0.2	Mike Bumstead
Bryan Augenstein	44.7	6.04	3.42	1.01	81	-0.4	John Koronka
Daniel Schlereth	25.7	7.00	6.30	1.05	73	-0.4	Scott Forster
Luke Putkonen	38.0	6.87	4.03	1.18	79	-0.4	Keith Shepherd
Jose Valdez	45.0	8.40	6.00	1.20	79	-0.5	Ryan Henderson
Guido Knudson	57.3	6.75	3.93	1.26	79	-0.5	Buddy Carlyle
Omar Duran	48.3	9.13	6.89	1.12	79	-0.5	Carl Schutz
Buck Farmer	93.7	6.82	3.27	1.63	72	-0.5	Justin Pope
Jheyson Manzueta	58.7	5.83	4.14	1.07	79	-0.7	Joe Davenport
Lefty Below	87.0	4.45	3.62	1.34	71	-0.7	Benj Sampson
Josh Zeid	51.7	7.66	4.53	1.39	76	-0.7	Mike James
Joshua Turley	122.7	5.43	3.45	1.39	73	-0.7	Derrick van Dusen
Angel Nesbitt	61.7	6.86	4.08	1.31	78	-0.7	Steve Avery
Alberto Cabrera	83.0	7.48	4.23	1.52	76	-0.7	Mumba Rivera
Warwick Saupold	111.0	5.76	4.46	1.46	69	-1.0	Steve Buckholz
Melvin Mercedes	58.7	4.45	2.61	1.53	70	-1.1	Rob Dibble
Will Startup	54.7	4.77	3.78	1.65	66	-1.4	Rusty Gerhardt
Tim Melville	69.0	5.48	5.87	1.70	60	-1.4	Mike Gordon
Kyle Ryan	136.3	4.49	2.97	1.65	68	-1.5	Mike Rochford
Derek Hankins	108.0	3.42	3.00	1.83	61	-2.1	Jason Roach
Shawn Hill	106.7	3.46	3.12	1.94	59	-2.3	R.A. Dickey
Edgar De La Rosa	113.3	4.53	4.69	1.83	60	-2.4	Bill Malloy

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.