Ben and Sam talk to Rob Arthur about which batters have had hard luck or good fortune so far, according to Statcast.
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A while back, after one of those occasions where someone accused us of writing about the same teams too much, I checked to see which teams had been written about here most and least often. I had to depend on accurate author tagging, which hasn’t always been consistent, but based on the tags, we’ve written the most about the predictable teams — Boston, New York, Oakland, and so on. The other end was interesting, if also predictable. Not as much about the Astros, although more lately. Not as much about the Padres, although more lately. There’s been comparatively little about the Rockies. And, there’s been comparatively little about the Twins. One thing we can say is that, right now, the Rockies suck. But the Twins? The Twins are demanding devoted and focused content.
Not that we thought things were going to be this way. This year’s Twins were projected to be bad, and that was before Ervin Santana got suspended. Seven games into the season, the Twins found themselves six games out of first place, with a run differential almost twice as bad as the next-worst in the American League. But, since then, it’s been a month. Over that month, the Twins have tied for the league’s best record, with twice as many wins as losses. As things stand, the Twins have the eighth-best record in baseball. They have a better record than the Nationals. They’ve closed the gap on the Tigers and Royals.
There’s competitive baseball in Minnesota. It’s the damnedest thing. But now I have to write the kind of post I don’t like to write. The Twins aren’t good. This isn’t keeping up. I want there to be reasons to believe, but the indicators are what the indicators are. I apologize for the statistics. They’re in charge of me, not the other way around.
Lance Lynn first received a rotation spot in 2012 when St. Louis’s then-ace Chris Carpenter went down in Spring Training. Lynn inherited the rotation spot vacated by Carpenter, but did not inherit his role as staff ace, into which Adam Wainwright stepped after missing 2011 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Cardinals have once again lost their ace, with Adam Wainwright out for the season because of an Achilles injury. This time, Lance Lynn, secure in his spot in the rotation and current de facto ace, appears poised to drop the de facto qualifier and be one of the top ten pitchers in all of baseball.
As Jonah Keri wrote yesterday, not much was expected of Lynn when he was drafted, but over the last year he has been one of the better pitchers in the National League. The Cardinals tweaked Lynn’s delivery in the minors, instructing him to move his hips more to gain greater leverage towards the plate. The moves helped Lynn throw in the mid-90s out of the bullpen in 2011, and kept his fourseam fastball in the 92-93 mph range as a starter. Lynn has been solid and durable, but not spectacular, as a starter over the past three seasons slotting behind Adam Wainwright. In the early part of this season, he has taken a step forward, mirroring the career of Max Scherzer.
Corey Kluber just regressed very quickly. After a high-profile winless start to his post-Cy Young-winning campaign that had many wondering what was wrong with him, the Cleveland right-hander struck out 18 Cardinals yesterday over eight innings, allowing only one hit and no walks along the way. In reality, there was nothing wrong with Kluber; his 5.04 ERA was mostly a mirage overlaying a 3.20 FIP, and given the fact that his peripherals were almost in line with last year’s stellar figures, better times were always ahead.
The better times came all at once, however, and they came in a package that almost made (and did make) history: Kluber finished the eighth inning just three strikeouts shy of the single game record for most in a game, 21. He didn’t get the chance to go out for the ninth, something that is being hotly debated, but the facts speak for themselves: Kluber had the most strikeouts in a game since 2004, he was only the second pitcher ever to have 18 Ks in eight innings (Randy Johnson, 1992), and his game score of 98 was the highest in an eight inning outing since 1914.
I won’t list all of the records because there are a lot of them, but the bottom line is that he had an almost impossibly great day. August summed up the impact on Kluber’s season stats well in this tweet:
Corey Kluber today: ERA from 5.04 to 4.27 FIP from 3.20 to 2.57 K% from 23.8 to 29.2 BB% from 5.7 to 5.0 Record from 0-5 to 1-5
— August Fagerstrom (@AugustF_MLB) May 14, 2015
That’s quite a turnaround, as you might expect, so let’s dive a little deeper into the start. We’re going to kick this off with a GIF. It’s a good GIF, and it illustrates a few points we’re going to talk about. The camera angle changes slightly as the innings progress, but it still gives us a pretty good idea of where Kluber was operating yesterday. Green circles are swinging strikeouts, red circles are looking strikeouts:
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HI PAUL! |
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: Hey everyone, we’ll get started shortly!
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: Hi Zach!!!
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Sporer is taking over!! |
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A Thursday with Paul? Woohoo!!!! Ventura or Shoemaker ROS? |
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: Shoemaker for me. They were very close for me to start the season, though, and they still are… albeit bumped down a little after their starts
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Coming into the season, the Red Sox rotation looked to be around league average. Instead, watching Red Sox starters this season has been like sticking 30 sporks in your eye: difficult, time consuming, and quite painful. So they’ve been worse than we thought.
The results from the starting staff have been bad and that badness has been unexpected but not nearly as unexpected as the Red Sox’ inability to score runs. While the rotation had a low upside, Boston’s hitters were expected to crush the ball. Indeed, the Red Sox were projected to score the most runs in baseball, but instead they’re seventh in the American League and closer to the last place White Sox than the first place Blue Jays.
To date, the offense has been mediocre instead of outstanding and, more importantly, hasn’t been good enough to cover for the starting rotation’s early season difficulties. But as you know if you read FanGraphs regularly, just citing runs scored isn’t enough. Though if it were I’d be finished right now and, I won’t lie, that has some appeal! Still, we want to know why, so let’s find out why.
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Kelly (34.0 IP, 99 xFIP-) vs. Elias (18.2 IP, 86 xFIP-)
In terms of aesthetic heights, tonight’s collection of games would appear to offer a lower probability of scaling them — or, perhaps more accurately, allowing the viewer to scale them — than what has been available previously this month. Boston’s Joe Kelly has recorded the highest average fastball velocity among qualifiers, but his arm speed hasn’t translated either to run prevention or even particularly great fielding-independent numbers. Seattle’s Roenis Elias throws strikes at a rate about a standard deviation greater than the average starter, but he lacks metaphorical electricity.
Indeed, one might consider utilizing tonight to observe some compelling amateur talent, instead. Hard-throwing Louisville right-hander Kyle Funkhouser, for example — ranked fifth among all draft prospects recently by Kiley McDaniel — starts tonight against NC State at 6pm ET, which game is available on Watch ESPN. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt plays Alabama at 8pm ET, which game features both right-hander Carson Fulmer and shortstop Dansby Swanson — both also ranked among McDaniel’s top-10 draft prospects. That game is available on streaming video by means of SEC Network Plus, itself also accessible through Watch ESPN.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.
Stephen Strasburg has an ERA over 6. We don’t talk about ERA very often. OK, then, Stephen Strasburg has an overall RA over 7. I don’t bring these numbers up because they conclusively demonstrate that Strasburg has a problem. I bring them up because an ERA over 6 is just embarrassing, and a pitcher like Strasburg can’t pull that off unless something’s awry. This isn’t something that’s hidden deep in the statistics — it’s readily apparent to everyone that Strasburg’s been giving up way too many runs.
You have an understanding of how these things go. When you see someone who’s been really good, odds are that player has been both good and lucky. When you see someone who’s been really bad, odds are that player has been both bad and unlucky. For some of you, the first thing that stands out on Strasburg’s page is the near-.400 BABIP. It’s the highest BABIP in baseball, and we know Strasburg has pitched in front of a porous defense. His peripherals indicate he’s been all right. You can’t just stop there, though. This isn’t random BABIP noise. There’s no reason why a pitcher like Strasburg should be running a higher contact rate against than Bartolo Colon. No reason, at least, that isn’t problematic.
Strasburg has issues. Or, Strasburg has one issue. But he very definitely has not been himself.
When Kevin Kiermaier made his MLB debut at the end of the 2013 season, he did so as a defensive replacement. The Tampa Bay Rays dynamo was 23 years old at the time, and in the eyes of many, a glove-first fourth outfielder with questionable offensive skills. A 31st-round pick in 2012 out of D-II Parkland College, he wasn’t viewed as an important part of the team’s future.
Kiermaier has done a lot to change that impression. Defense remains his greatest strength, but he’s proving he can hold his own with the bat as well. Last year, the left-handed hitter produced a better-than-expected .263/.315/.450 slash line, and he hit eight triples and 10 home runs in 108 games. This season’s numbers are following a similar track.
Kiermaier talked about the evolution of his high-energy game, including the adjustment that helped him turn a corner, during a recent series at Fenway Park.
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Kiermaier on telling me in March 2014 that he considers himself more than a defensive specialist: “Defense is one of the strongest parts of my game, if not the strongest. At the same time, I don’t want to take anything away from my offensive ability, because I know I can do a lot of good things up there at the plate. That’s pretty much what I was saying. Basically, I don’t want to just be known as a defensive guy.
“When I first got called up, they said ‘Hey, just go hold your own defensively, run the bases well, and anything you do offensively is a bonus.’ They didn’t put a whole lot of pressure on me by saying ‘You need to hit this and this.’ Because of that, I was able to go out there with a free mind and just be aggressive. Instead of putting pressure on myself, I just played the same game I’ve been playing for many years. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben and Sam answer discuss the Indians’ decision to remove Corey Kluber with a 21-strikeout start on the line.
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