Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Tampa Bay | 19:10 ET
Sabathia (38.0 IP, 96 xFIP-) vs. Colome (10.0 IP, 46 xFIP-)
Over 16.0 innings in 2013, Tampa Bay right-hander Alex Colome produced a strikeout- and walk-rate differential of merely four points. In 23.2 innings last season, he recorded a differential of only three points. Not particularly great, either of those numbers. Over his first 10.0 innings this season, however, Colome has posted strikeout and walk rates of 26.3% an 0.0%, respectively — to which figures the application of subtraction produces a differential of exactly 26.3 points. Considerably bigger, that number. How has he facilitated that improvement? Mostly by means of chance, probably. But also by way of an increased swinging-strike rate, too, probably. Most impressive thus far has been a pitch referred to alternately as a cutter and slider.

Here’s an example of it to Mookie Betts from last week:

And to Xander Bogaerts, from that same game:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

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As I check the latest version of the leaderboard, I see that Michael Pineda currently leads all pitchers in WAR. Granted, it’s by only a little. Granted, a chunk of that just happened Sunday. And granted, WAR is a rough tool, especially for pitchers. Lots of stuff going on there. But something we know for sure: higher-WAR pitchers are better than lower-WAR pitchers. The guys at the top of the leaderboard are better than the guys at the bottom. And Pineda’s got an extraordinary strikeout-and-walk differential. Not only is it really good; in terms of K% – BB%, Pineda has gotten better by 10 percentage points, relative to last season. Only Danny Salazar is showing a bigger step forward so far in the American League.

Whenever you see a bump in performance like that, you have to wonder what changed. The first place a lot of people look is repertoire. And looking at the repertoire has a few steps — people look for new pitches, or new movement on old pitches, or new pitch mixes, or changing velocities. Sometimes people also look for changed release points. So goes the search for improvement explanations. As for Michael Pineda? He’s not throwing anything new. He hasn’t changed his movements or his arm slot, and his pitch mix is fairly similar. His pitches aren’t going faster. The explanation here seems to be one of the most difficult to prove, but also the simplest to convey. Pineda, from the looks of things, just has better command.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Minnesota at Cleveland | 13:10 ET
May (26.0 IP, 95 xFIP-) vs. Salazar (26.0 IP, 55 xFIP-)
Today’s actual and official most highly rated game is the one featuring the Dodgers at the Rockies at 4:10pm — which is to say, the one featuring the perpetually effective Clayton Kershaw versus the curiously effective Jorge de la Rosa. That particular encounter, however, was also yesterday’s most highly rated game before inclement weather cancelled it. The virtues of the Dodgers-Rockies contest are enumerated in only slighter greater depth here. With regard to this game between Minnesota and Cleveland, its most notable quality is how it provides the opportunity to observe Cleveland right-hander Danny Salazar. Were pitcher NERD figures not capped at 10, Salazar would receive a score of 15. He’s produced an expected FIP more than two standard deviations better than the average starter; a swinging-strike rate almost exactly three standard deviations better. Plus he throws harder than nearly everyone else.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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Last week’s column mentioned that Reggie Cleveland was the last native of Saskatchewan to win a big league game prior to Andrew Albers doing so two years ago. The 1981 decision wasn’t his most-notable feat. On September 25, 1977, he allowed 18 hits in a complete-game win.

Pitching for the Red Sox, the right-hander allowed 15 singles, a pair of doubles, and a home run as Boston cruised to a 12-5 victory at Tiger Stadium. He struck out one and didn’t issue a free pass.

Earlier this week, I asked Cleveland about the game. The first thing he did was laugh.

“You have to be pretty good to give up 18 hits and still be in the game,” Cleveland told me with a smile. “That’s a major league record.”

It actually isn’t a record, at least not if you include extra-inning games. In 1932, Eddie Rommel of the Philadelphia Athletics allowed 29 hits – and 14 runs! — over 17 frames in a win over the Indians. What Cleveland did is still remarkable, and I asked him how it came to be. Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at Colorado | 20:10 ET
Kershaw (38.2 IP, 50 xFIP-) vs. de la Rosa (12.0 IP, 66 xFIP-)
One benefit of this game to America and the Americans who live within it, is that it provides an opportunity to watch Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw. Insofar as Kershaw’s arm and body will submit eventually to the deleterious effects of age, only a finite number of such opportunities exist. This represents one of them. Otherwise, here’s another compelling feature of this contest — namely, that it allows everyone to learn more about this current, not entirely recognizable version of Jorge de la Rosa. Because, some facts about his (very brief) 2015 season thus far… One: he’s recorded an average fastball velocity of 93.8 mph, higher than at any other point in his career. Two: he’s produced a 16% swinging-strike rate, higher by six points than his career average. Three: he’s allowed runs (regard this number: 9.00 ERA) with considerably more frequency that his defense-independent numbers (regard these numbers: 2.58 FIP, 2.51 xFIP) would suggest.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: No Comment.

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Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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As we move into May and people start to check our WAR leaderboards, there will inevitably be a discussion about why certain players rank highly, especially if they aren’t putting up big offensive numbers. Most of the time, that discussion revolves around the player’s defensive value; For example, last August, Alex Gordon sat on top of our WAR leaderboards, which generated a fair amount of controversy at the time.

Here at FanGraphs, we use Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) as the fielding component of WAR. UZR is one of two defensive run estimators we host here on the site, the other being Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Both metrics go beyond traditional fielding stats using the same Baseball Information Solutions (BIS) data set to assign runs to players by dividing the field into different areas and then comparing each play to a league average. At FanGraphs, we don’t have UZR values for catchers or pitchers, so those positions are simply removed from any data visualizations in this post. We also have great library entries that go over the minutiae of the metrics better than I can in this post.

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Mike Foltynewicz’s future role for the Atlanta Braves is still in doubt. He brings a high-90s four-seam fastball that should play well out of the bullpen or as a starter, but his secondary offerings might not be good enough to consistently get hitters out at the Major League Baseball level. Acquired in a trade for Evan Gattis in the offseason, Foltynewicz has started two games for the Braves this season after 16 bullpen appearances for the Houston Astros last season. Results have been mixed thus far. In 10 1/3 innings this year, Foltynewicz has struck out nine but walked six, giving up seven runs and averaging an unsustainable 19 pitches per inning. Foltynewicz will need to be more efficient if he is to remain a starter, and the increased use of his sinker his second start of the season provides him with weapons to get quicker outs, more strikes, and help set up his big fourseam fastball and still-developing slider.

Foltynewicz’s fourseam fastball has been the 23-year-old’s bread and butter, sitting “95-98 mph and has hit 100 mph as a starter” per Kiley McDaniel’s write-up in his analysis of the Braves prospects. Last season in relief, Foltynewicz used his fastball roughly 50% of the time, averaging 98 miles per hour out of the bullpen, per Brooks Baseball. He mixed in a curve, sinker, and change, but did not throw any of those offerings more than one quarter of the time.

In his first start of the season against the Cincinnati Reds, he relied on his fastball even more than 2014, throwing 60 four-seam fastballs among his 94 pitches. He might not have had the feel for his change as he threw that pitch just four times in the outing, mixing in a curve and sinker for his remaining pitches. For Foltynewicz’s four-seamer to be successful, it likely needs to stay up in the zone to get swings and misses. Here is the pitch plot from his first start.

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Andrew McCutchen has been bad. I think I’m allowed to say that. Used to be, it was just a bad start. It’s still a bad start, but we’re a week into May, so that “just” is disappearing by the second. Attention to this thing is warranted.

Now, at any given time, lots of baseball players are in the midst of being bad. What’s weird about McCutchen being bad, in particular, is that he’s usually not. He goes beyond just being an All-Star; he’s one of the five best players in the game today. The spotlight shines a little brighter, and so when things are going awry, people notice.

How much do I need to go over, here? I know McCutchen’s numbers are bad. You know McCutchen’s numbers are bad. I don’t need to review a ton of information proving as much. Here, let’s just look at one graph. As I write this, McCutchen has played 26 games in 2015. Below, his whole career, in rolling 26-game stretches of OPS. Pretty simple measure of hot streaks and cold spells:

Two things to take from that. One, McCutchen has had bad 26-game stretches before. They’ve just been tucked into the middle of seasons, rather than being right at the start, all conspicuous-like. Two, McCutchen has been quite bad this season. As far as the graph above is concerned, McCutchen has achieved a career minimum. It’s not proof that something’s wrong, but it’s enough to make you wonder.

Read the rest at Just A Bit Outside.

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