Jake Odorizzi is a wanted man. The 25-year-old right-hander is reportedly a trade target for multiple teams this offseason. It’s easy to see why. Last year, in his second full season with the Tampa Bay Rays, Odorizzi logged a 3.35 ERA and a 3.61 FIP over 28 starts. Arbitration eligible after the coming campaign, he’s under team control four more years.

Odorizzi isn’t a power pitcher, nor is he a control artist. He’s certainly not a sinker-baller. What he does is mix-and-match with a full repertoire that includes a riding fastball and a dipping splitter. Thoughtful in his approach, he might be best described as budding craftsman.

Odorizzi, who remains a Ray for the time being — Tampa Bay’s interest in dealing him is of course speculative — discussed his development in the final week of September.

———

Odorizzi on his 2015 season: “The biggest change from last year to this year is maturity. I’m learning the league, plus there’s the confidence you gain. As a rookie, everything is kind of an unknown, and now I have a better idea of what to expect. That’s been big, given all of the injuries we had early on. Chris Archer and I have had to grow, and step up to fill the void. Even with as young as we are, we’re kind of the veteran guys in the rotation. Circumstances forced us to have what I guess you could call an older approach. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m not going to lie to you — I didn’t think much of Dee Gordon. Two years ago, I thought he was barely a big-leaguer. Even last year, when the Dodgers sent Gordon to the Marlins, I thought the Marlins were buying high on a utility sort. I was critical of the move when I wrote up the trade, and I felt pretty strongly, and now it’s been another year, and the Marlins have signed Gordon to a five-year deal worth $50 million. And now it’s not a case of the Marlins overpaying. It’s a case of Gordon having proven me wrong. The Dee Gordon that exists now is considerably better than the versions that have come before.

Overall, it’s not like the player profile has changed that much. Gordon puts the bat on the ball, and he puts the ball on the ground, and his legs take him toward first faster than some cars take people to work. Gordon will forever be built like someone who could fit in a suitcase, so you can’t expect any kind of power, but the selling point is his mobility. He can move as a hitter and he can move as a defender, so his game is almost about pure athleticism. Gordon has all the same general skills — he’s just added some polish, and in order for that process to occur, he had to leave Los Angeles for Miami. Only there did he meet the man who could get the most out of his tools.

Read the rest of this entry »

We don’t talk a whole lot about minimums, even though we’re always using them. Sometimes the minimums are obvious, but other times, they’re completely arbitrary. For example, let’s use a minimum of 60 innings pitched last season. Going from there, you could say the Yankees have assembled something hilarious, when you sort pitchers by strikeout rate:

1. Aroldis Chapman, 41.7% strikeouts
2. Andrew Miller, 40.7%
3. Dellin Betances, 39.5%

If you were to just bump the minimum down to 50 innings, though — which would be perfectly defensible — then you get an intruder to spoil the party.

1. Chapman, 41.7%
2. Miller, 40.7%
3. Kenley Jansen, 40.0%

Adjusting minimums is one of those ways you get to sort of manipulate the statistics. If not that, directly, then you get to manipulate statistical arguments. And, you know, while we’re playing around with minimums, why don’t we just drop the minimum to 30 innings, for fun, and-

1. Carter Capps, 49.2%
2. Chapman, 41.7%
3. Miller, 40.7%

You forgot about Carter Capps. Un-forget about him. See, at the end of this post, I have a question for you. I want to know your guess for Capps’ 2016 strikeout rate. It’s a simple and straightforward poll, but before we get to that, we need to talk about Capps so you remember fully what he’s all about.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam banter about Ian Kennedy and their free-agent-contract predictions, then answer listener emails about the Dodgers’ front office, The Players’ Tribune, Coors Field and Gerardo Parra, silent free agents, and more.

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

You probably didn’t wake up today thinking “today I’d like to read something about Ian Kennedy.” That’s fine. You probably didn’t wake up yesterday thinking “today I’d like to read something about Wei-Yin Chen” or “today I’d like to read something about the Marlins,” but both those things got folded into the same post. It’s the middle of January. This isn’t the time of year when people are thinking about baseball. Even when people are thinking about baseball, they’re only very infrequently thinking about Ian Kennedy. Even he knows he’s not the most high-profile starting pitcher around.

It’s just — okay: Posts have to be written. They might as well be written about what’s going on. And at the moment, Kennedy remains a free agent, with reports indicating his market has heated up. At any moment now, Kennedy could officially end up with a new employer, and he’s going to get a mid-eight-figure deal. Maybe it’s going to come from the Royals. Maybe it’s going to come from the Orioles or somebody else, but a deal will materialize. Right now Kennedy is of some interest, so it’s time for him to be thoroughly considered. The following will be conducted with points and counterpoints.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal published a piece at Fox, suggesting that the St. Louis Cardinals don’t need to chase any more high-end free agents after finishing as runner-up in both the Jason Heyward and David Price sweepstakes. Their willingness to put something close to $200 million in guaranteed money on the table for each of those two players shows that the Cardinals had money to spend this winter, and so far, they’ve also reallocated $92.5 million of that money to three free agents: starter Mike Leake, reliever Jonathan Broxton, and catcher Brayan Pena. As Rosenthal notes, these depth pieces add to an already deep roster, and the team has internal options to replace Heyward.

But I’m going to disagree with my esteemed colleague’s conclusion anyway. In summation of his argument, he wrote the following.

The Cardinals never panic when constructing their roster; people within the industry routinely laud general manager John Mozeliak for staying disciplined. Mozeliak will jump on a remaining free agent only if he views the price as too good to ignore. And if the team stumbles, he can react before the July 31 non-waiver deadline, when he normally does some of his best work.

It is certainly true that the Cardinals can go into the 2016 season with their roster as it stands, and if it proves to be insufficient to keep up with the Cardinals and Pirates, they could go out and make second half improvements, as suggested. However, I’d suggest that taking advantage of a soft market for the remaining free agent outfielders is a better path forward.

Read the rest on Fox Sports.

It’s tough to admit that time has begun to pass you by. This is how we end up with middle-aged woman wearing Phat Farm sneakers at the mall or that 60-year-old dude who only shoots threes and never gets back on defense playing basketball at the rec with the college kids every day. And, hey, I’m not here to judge those folks. Matter of fact, I respect the hell out of them. The old dude can really splash and the mom just values her children’s opinion and wants their adoration. I’m sure she’s a wonderful parent, albeit one with a very questionable fashion sense. At the end of the day, it comes down to whatever makes you happy, and if wearing Phat Farm sneakers or being the local wellness center’s version of Mike Miller is what makes you happy, then do it up!

Take the Rockies, for example. Following Tuesday’s acquisition of Gerardo Parra, it’s a near-certainty that the Rockies will be trading an outfielder. The most probable outfielder to be moved is Carlos Gonzalez, at least if the rumors we’ve heard over the last year-plus are any indication. And so if they want to ask for two top-100 prospects in exchange for Gonzalez, then, sure, more power to ’em! If that’s what makes them happy. They’re never going to get two top-100 prospects for Carlos Gonzalez, but there’s no harm in hoping.

There used to be a time when Gonzalez would have commanded two top-100 prospects or better. From 2010 to -13, Gonzalez was a top-25 hitter and a top-25 overall position player, according to WAR. He was a legitimate star. He hit both lefties and righties, he ran the bases well, he was a lock for 20 homers as well as for 20 steals, and the defense graded out fine in the corners. The only thing that ever kept from CarGo from elevating himself from star to superstar status was that he had trouble staying on the field. When he wasn’t hurt, though, there weren’t many better than CarGo.

Thing about injuries, though, is that they’ll take a toll on you quick. Gonzalaz fractured his right wrist way back in the minors, and in 2011, it started hurting again, sending him to the disabled list. The next year it was a hamstring. Then it was a finger sprain in his right hand, then a tumor on his left hand the following year that required surgical removal. The big one came later in 2014 — left knee surgery to repair a torn patellar tendon. Gonzalez remained mostly healthy in 2015, aside from the occasional day off due to “tired legs,” “right knee discomfort,” “sprained left hand,” or the ever-present “flu-like symptoms.” But these last couple years, after the hand surgery and the knee surgery, Gonzalez hasn’t looked like himself.
Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

The Cardinals have signed a Korean right-hander named Seung-Hwan Oh to a one-year deal with a club option. Maybe this won’t be a big deal. After all, he is just a reliever without a trick pitch or big velocity numbers. In any case, the hype machine that sometimes provides a deluge of information on Japanese pitchers has not worked its magic on Oh. We know very little.

We know his nickname is Stone Buddha and The Final Boss — nicknames he got from being an affectless closer with great numbers in Korea. And if we mine the reports and the numbers, we can learn a little more about a pitcher that might end up setting up for one of the best teams in baseball.

Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Houston Astros. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Kansas City / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
Whether by accident or design, the current iteration of the Astros does appear nevertheless to reveal a clue as to the method by which the club’s roster has been constructed. Per ZiPS, there are two sorts of player among Houston’s starting nine: those whose projected WAR figures can be rounded comfortably to three wins or higher, and those whose forecasts are rounded merely to a single win. Only two players (Evan Gattis and Jon Singleton) occupy the latter group and — again, whether by coincidence or not — they also happen to occupy those positions which require the least defensive skill (or, in the case of designated hitter, no defensive skill at all). One could reasonably make a case that the club has prioritized acquiring and/or developing players with some manner of defensive value. The case may not be correct, but at least it’s capable of being presented with tolerable credulity.

One player who possesses considerable offensive and defensive talent — and who was also a rookie in 2015 — is shortstop Carlos Correa. On the verge of entering just his age-21 season, Correa is the recipient of the top projection among the club’s entire roster, forecast to produce roughly five wins in 2016 on the strength not merely of average shortstop defense but also the team’s best batting line. Owing to how none of us is immune from the icy grip of the Reaper, Correa won’t be great forever. That said, he appears entirely capable of approximating those early versions of Troy Tulowitzki who avoided injury.

Read the rest of this entry »