2017 ZiPS Projections – Cleveland Indians

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Chicago NL / Detroit / Houston / San Diego / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Despite having just completed only his age-22 season, shortstop Francisco Lindor (681 PA, 5.9 zWAR) has become pretty decisively not only the strongest of Cleveland’s field players, but among the strongest in the league. A brief examination of the nine clubs for whom a ZiPS projection has been published here reveals that only three batters — Kris Bryant (672, 6.9), Carlos Correa (682, 6.5), and Josh Donaldson (657, 7.0) — have received a more promising forecast for 2017.

If one takes for granted that every WAR projection possesses an implied error bar, then it stands to reason that Michael Brantley’s projection (339, 1.6) features a larger error bar than most. ZiPS, the product of an algorithm on Dan Szymborski’s computer, does not account for the precise nature of Brantley’s injuries over the past couple years. What it does account for, however, is that Brantley recorded only 43 plate appearances in 2016. That both (a) suppresses his playing-time projection for 2017 and (b) creates uncertainty in general.

Pitchers
For however often it’s already been acknowledged, it’s probably fair to acknowledge once again the improbability of this Cleveland team advancing to Game Seven of the World Series in the absence of Carlos Carrasco (161.0 IP, 3.7 zWAR) and Danny Salazar (164.1, 3.4). As the projections here underscore, those guys are really good. For a club with Cleveland’s relatively modest resources to lose pitchers of their stature would typically seem like a death knell. Corey Kluber (208.2, 5.4), the ace of the staff, receives a rare forecast for 200 innings.

Unsurprisingly, Cleveland’s bullpen receives here the top WAR forecast among the nine clubs addressed thus far in this series. Also unsurprisingly, Cody Allen (67.0, 1.1) and, in particular, Andrew Miller (62.0, 1.9) are responsible for the largest portion of that collective, impressive forecast.

Bench/Prospects
While omitted from the depth-chart image below, Abraham Almonte (412 PA, 0.8 zWAR) is likely — unless the roster is altered significantly between now and Opening Day — to play a substantive role with the club, maybe in some sort of timeshare with Tyler Naquin (442, 1.2) or even as a starting left fielder. Among the organization’s prospects, outfielder Bradley Zimmer (524, 1.6) is one of the most celerated — and the most well equipped for the major leagues, according to ZiPS. Yandy Diaz (510, 1.1) isn’t celebrated much at all, but is nearly as well equipped.

Absent from the depth chart, right-hander Mike Clevinger (134.2 IP, 0.8 zWAR) represents useful rotation depth at the moment — as might left-hander Tim Cooney (95.0, 0.8), claimed off waivers from St. Louis after missing the 2016 season. Finally, ZiPS calls for right-handed reliever Shawn Armstrong (58.2 IP, 82 ERA-) to produce the third-highest strikeout rate among all Cleveland pitchers — and one of the best park-adjusted ERAs, as well.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of Cleveland’s roster, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.