2017 ZiPS Projections – Milwaukee Brewers

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / New York AL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Milwaukee general manager David Stearns has dedicated the first year-plus of his tenure with the Brewers to a pursuit of affordable pieces that might contribute to the club’s next winning season, while trading away the most valuable pieces of its most recent one. The ZiPS projections here reflect the results of that endeavor. On the one hand, no field player is projected to record more than three wins in 2017. (Jonathan Villar, at 2.8 zWAR, is best acquitted by that measure.) On the other hand, 20 positions players receive a forecast of 1.0 WAR or better.

For context, consider: three of the National League’s playoff clubs from 2016 have been included thus far in this series of ZiPS posts. By comparison, only 16 of the Cubs’ position players receive a projection of one win or better. Only 13 of Washington’s do. And only 10 field players for the San Francisco Giants are expected to cross the one-win threshold, per ZiPS. Milwaukee, in other words, has gathered a large collection of players whose median probable outcome is slightly below average. Given the youth of that group, however, and the vagaries of the world, some of those players will develop into average or better players.

Pitchers
Generally speaking, one finds the members of a club’s provisional rotation occupying the first five or so slots of that team’s ZiPS pitching projections, followed by a collection of relievers and depth pieces. This isn’t really the case with Milwaukee. Zach Davies (169.1 IP, 2.6 zWAR) receives the top forecast among Brewers pitchers. The next-best forecast for a Brewers starter, however, is Junior Guerra (123.0, 1.5) — who receives only the fifth-best wins projection. Chase Anderson (139.2, 1.1) earns the seventh-best figure on the club. Wily Peralta (149.2, 0.8) is 11th. As for Matt Garza (121.1, 0.3), he’s 21st.

If the Brewers’ intent were to win as many games as possible in 2017, deploying their 11th- and 21st-best pitchers on a regular basis would obviously be problematic. But their intent is also to develop young players — young players who’ve received more promising projections — at the appropriate rate. And to facilitate the opportunity for a pitcher like Garza, presumably, to create trade value.

Bench/Prospects
As noted, this is the strength of the club. Among all Brewers field players, Lewis Brinson (473 PA, 2.5 zWAR) — acquired last year in the deal that sent Jonathan Lucroy to Texas — earns the second-best WAR forecast. Orlando Arcia (635, 2.1), who only just exceeded his rookie eligibility last year, earns the club’s fifth-best mark. Ryan Cordell (450, 1.2), Mauricio Dubon (571, 1.4), Jacob Nottingham (493 PA, 1.0), Brett Phillips (542, 1.5), Tyrone Taylor (533, 1.0): none of them have recorded even a single major-league plate appearance, but all still profile as competent bench pieces for 2016 already.

Also as noted, the Brewers rotation, in its present form, isn’t a pure expression of present talent — at least not “present talent” to the degree that it’s represented by Dan Szymborski’s computer. Consider: Josh Hader (120.0 IP, 2.0 zWAR), Jimmy Nelson (170.0, 1.9), and Brandon Woodruff (132.7, 1.6) receive three of the club’s four best WAR projections, per ZiPS. At the moment, however, none of that triumvirate is expected to begin the year in the rotation.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Brewers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.